Friday, March 20, 2020

And Then There Were 51 -- March 20, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5166584932

Three new permits, #37462 - #37464, inclusive:
Three wells noted to plugged or producing:
  • 35727, Oasis, Joplin, McKenzie County
  • 35958, Whiting, Arndt, Mountrail County
  • 36090, Whiting, Meiers, Mountrail County
One permit canceled:
  • Enerplus: a Steelhead permit in Dunn County
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
  • 35659, A/SI, CLR, Richmond 9-26HSL1, Brooklyn, t--; cum 10K over 17 days; fracked 10/8/19 - 10/17/19; 6.5 million gallons of water; 87.82% water by mass;

One-Liners -- For The Archives -- March 20, 2020

Census: my daughter is wondering why the census is not delayed until later this autumn; a lot of folks are going to be dead from coronavirus between now and then. 

EOG says it would be impractical to cap Texas crude oil production.

Texas Railroad Commission chairman opposed OPEC-style oil production cuts.

Petrobras suspends refinery sales.

I see folks using the word "recession" more often. I mentioned to another individual that "depression" is my concern. He thought I was nuts. In the past 24 hours, since mentioning that, I've seen "depression" used at least twice in reference to the current oil shock - market meltdown. Not all agree on the definition but it's pretty well agreed that two consecutive quarters with negative growth constitute(s) a recession. The definition of a depression is much, much more difficult. At best, whereas a recession is measured in weeks/months, a depression is measured in years and, some say, an unemployment rate of 20% or greater. I think a recession is the worst of our worries.

Illinois governor: issues statewide "stay at home" order. We will know if he's serious if he shuts down O'Hare airport. He said that people could only go to grocery stores, gas stations, and pharmacies (as well as exercise outdoors). Airports, it seems, in Illinois need to be shut down, according to the governor's directive, except for cargo planes and planes that are simply transiting (no passenger boarding or deplaning). A lot of gang-bangers are going to take up outdoor exercising.

Citi sees a 40% contraction in US oilfield services.

Dow tumbles another 900 points.

It just dawned on me. The reason I dislike airports and flying so much is that each one of us going through airport security is considered a potential terrorist. Likewise, when I pick up a carton of eggs I'm either thought of as another hoarder, or someone harboring, OMG, coronavirus.

I notice Amazon has run out of household cleansers but still plenty of books available for same-day delivery.

Well, off to my evening trip to the grocery store to see how things are going.

Later: pretty bad shape; pretty well picked over. No eggs; there was some milk but not the "brand" Sophia drinks; the meat department is doing an incredible job trying to keep up; plenty of fish; no rice; plenty of produce; no bread on the shelves, but plenty of bread in the bakery; beans/chili (in cans) pretty much sold out. There was more than enough for me, but I'm not finicky. Sophia is very, very finicky. This is probably the least well-stocked store in the half dozen in our area, not including Target or Walmart.

We Are Now In Bakken 4.0 -- March 20, 2020

Link here.

And what a great way to inaugurate "Bakken 4.0!"

Link here.  Can't wait to see the first Boeing 737 MAX land here. Awesome.

The XTO FBIR Bird Wells In Heart Butte Have Gone To DRL Status -- March 20, 2020

Link here.

The neighboring pad is an XTO FBIR Stephen/Bird pad, also updated at the link above.

This CLR Morris Well Has Gone Over 500K Bbls Cumulative -- March 20, 2020

This page won't be updated.

The Morris wells are tracked here.

This well has gone over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative:
  • 18858, 715, CLR, Morris 3-26H, t5/11; cum 499K 1/20; yes, a candidate for a re-frack; back on line 4/19; subtle halo effect; off line as of 7/19; back on line 8/19;

An Update Of A Re-Fracked CLR Gunderson Well -- March 20, 2020

A look at a re-fracked Bakken well:

The well:
  • 23006, 2,590, Equinor/Statoil/BEXP, Gunderson 15-22 6H, Banks, s6/12; t12/12; cum 303K 1/20; re-fracked, 8/1/18 - 8/2/18; 3.7 million gallons of water; 94.8% water by mass; 1.5 million lbs proppant;
See full production profile here

This page will not be updated; the Gunderson wells are tracked here.

Wells That I No Longer Track -- Page 14

For first thirteen pages in this series, see this link; scroll to bottom of that page.

I no longer track these wells as wells that need to be followed up:

October 3, 2019: huge well, #16963; came off line as of 7/19; must follow up; a Petro-Hunt USA well; will follow over on page for "monster wells."

August 5, 2019: the CLR Steele wells in Banks oil field, #31520 - #31523, inclusive; #27550; #27551;

Wuhan Flu: SARS-CoV-2 And COVID-19

This is Page Two

Coronavirus: statistics. By country. By state.

US seasonal flu: statistics, October 5, 2019 -- May 30, 2020 (eight-month season)

Contagion factor: link here.


March 31, 2020 modeling Wuhan flu.

March 30, 2020: Trump, 136 -- Madcow, 0 -- Madcow said the ships wouldn't arrive for "weeks and weeks." Madcow is as accurate as Baghdad Bob, and just as "mean" as Hillary.

March 29, 2020: peak deaths -- April 13, 2020.

March 28, 2020: I would love to be a fly on the wall. Trump is taking his advice from the public heath professionals, particularly the CDC and the "talking heads on MSNBC." He has no choice.
He tweeted late on this date that he is considering a quarantine on "hot spots" in the US -- specifically NYC which is now on track to have more cases than the entire country of China, due to "open door" policies of the Cuomo brothers and de Blasio. If Trump declares a quarantine, Governor Cuomo says this means "war." It will be interesting to hear the CDC's official advice to the president. It is very clear to me what Dr Fauci would recommend based on his past statements. My two cents worth: President Trump should not quarantine any state.
March 22, 2020: update --

March 22, 2020: update, link here.

March 21, 2020: chloroquine.

March 21, 2020: person of interest, a Harvard professor. Archived.

March 20, 2020: is it time for China to ban flights from the United States?

The Bakken Wells Are Simply Incredible -- March 20, 2020

I'm simply posting the initial production data for the wells coming off the confidential list and here we have another one: 100K in three or four months. It's so common now, I (unfortunately) am taking them for granted. But 100K in three or four months is actually not that great any more: they aren't considered monster wells any more.
  • 34853, 1,125, CLR, Uhlman Federal 4-7HSL, 40 stages; 9.2  million lbs; Banks, t11/19; cum 101K 1/20;    
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

I don't have a strict definition for a "monster" well -- it evolves over time as the Bakken evolves. But I need to see 40,000 bbls/month to get me excited any more.

The well above: 100K in three months.

Best Bakken Blog 

A pat on my own back. Wow, I love this blog. For me, and I might be a bit biased (wow, thank goodness the Phoenicians put a "b" in the alphabet -- and to think that "B" is only 20th in the list of letters most commonly used -- but I digress) -- where was I? Oh,  yes, I might be a bit biased but in my little mind, this is the best Bakken blog on the net. Where else would you learn this bit of trivia:
  • first note, June 13, 2015:
    • 21387, 2,502 White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 4-20MLH, original permit for a Three Forks well but name change suggesting a middle Bakken well; in January, 2014, along with the name change (from TF to middle Bakken), Slawson also requested a revision "to allow for an additional lateral, would submit a revised plan for a single lateral plan"; in July, 2014, the thee Panzer wells were transferred to White Butte Oil from Slawson; the business address for Slawson and White Butte were identical, 1675 Broadway, Suite 1600, Denver, CO.; and that connects the last dot. 
Speaking of Slawson 

This is a hard well for me to understand:
  • 18199, 290, Slawson, Zulu 1-21H, Van Hook t12/09; cum 210K 1/20;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Initial production back in 2009:


This well has had so many ups and downs, I may have to add another category of wells in the Bakken: the roller coaster wells.

This well produced 4,000 bbls in its first full month. Pathetic.

Recently, ten years later, it's producing as much as 6,000 bbls in a month. The numbers are too low to suggest a re-frack, so let's look at the map. There are six Zulu wells, and several Fox/Shakfox wells in the area but nothing particularly noteworthy. Just a lot of activity over the years, and that probably explains the "crazy" production profile. Full production profile is here. 

The Daily Note -- Morning Edition --March 20, 2020

IRS: officially extends deadline to July 15, 2020. Why not just make it August 1, 2020? What's with the 15th? Whatever. Huge windfall. This is truly amazing. Previously reported over at ZeroHedge but I was waiting for the official announcement. I will send a letter to my tax accountant that I want to take advantage of the extension.

The Minnesota experience: you betcha.

The Texas experience: well, I'll be gosh-darned. Governor Greg Abbot of Texas yesterday, paraphrasing: "Effective midnight tonight, everything is closed except gas stations, grocery stores, banks, and parks. This is not shelter-in-place. People are to go about their normal business. Assemblies larger than ten people are not allowed. This is only temporary. The order remains in effect until April 3, 2020, at which time it will be extended if necessary."

Waffle House: you know, it just occurred to me. Waffle House has survived almost everything but it did not survive coronavirus. Pretty sad. And it was also noted on talk radio this morning that this is the first time this country has shut down for a pandemic. I think it's the first time the country has shut down for anything. Except the holidays.

A reader asked whether this will flatten the curve? It appears that the coronavirus curve will be much like the dreaded Bakken decline curve. For many reasons, there will be a huge increase in the number of cases, and then there will be a gradual decline, taking several months -- just like the Bakken -- and then the curve will flatten out but the virus will be with us "forever." We'll have as many new cases three weeks from now, if not more, than were reported yesterday. Then it gets really interesting.

By the way, an increase in the number of cases reported does not necessarily mean there are more cases in actuality. One wonders how many cases of "seasonal flu" were really Wuhan flu earlier this year (January - February) before testing began. There is now a blood test, I am being told, that can test whether you have had Wuhan flu in the past. The ELISA test is available in Singapore. I assume the FDA / CDC prohibit use of that test in this country.

Anyway, enough of this. Perhaps more later.

Tom Thumb metric: I will now add a new metric to the blog, the "Tom Thumb" metric. Tom Thumb is one of our handful of big grocery stores in the area, along with HEB, Central Market, Albertsons, Sprouts, Whole Foods, Market Street, and Aldi. Our particular Tom Thumb is a two-minute walk from our apartment complex, 30 seconds on the bike. I now walk though Tom Thumb every morning to do a "walkaround." Today's report:
  • the empty shelves beget continued panic;
  • in fact, one can truly find everything one needs; the selection is simply not as great;
  • "no" cleaning products and no toilet paper;
  • fresh produce: overflowing bins; I did not notice a shortage of anything;
  • beef: selection way down; many empty shelves; but more than enough beef available;
  • eggs: overflowing in quantity; limited to one dozen per transaction;
  • everything else? normal, normal, normal;
  • aisles full of carts with boxes of grocery items to be shelves;
  • more employees than I have ever seen stocking shelves;
  • Philadelphia Cream: a huge shipment just arrived -- which reminds me, I was going to get a bagel for my own Philadelphia Cream Cheese that is in the refrigerator; will have to go back later;
I picked up two ears of corn (33 cents each) but put them back after seeing that the checkout lines were way too long: three people in the "express" line; and three people each in the regular two lines (yes, that was the extent of the panic buying this morning, but I will go back when it slows down to get those two ears of corn).

No cleaning supplies? I suggested Amazon. Was told Amazon was "also out." Not accurate. A two-week delay, but in fact, put in your order now, and my hunch you will get your cleaning supplies more quickly than warned.

It is interesting. I am now, like 99%-of-everything-I-buy will be through Amazon. The  more I do that, the stickier my fingers get, and even when this coronavirus thing is over, I will still buy 99% of everything I need/don't need through Amazon. Yesterday, I was going to go to Walmart to buy a new bicycle security chain. Nope, didn't need the hassle. Ordered it last night. Message this morning: chain has shipped. Will arrive tomorrow.

I have had some kitchen items on my "wish" list for a year or so. Yesterday, I ordered those on Amazon. Saves me a trip to Walmart, Target, and/or the Container store.


If coronavirus wasn't keeping me indoors the record amount of rain the Dallas area is receiving would.

Entertainment options are limitless:
  • TCM (part of the expensive cable television package, but I consider TCM free; it's everything else on cable I'm paying for  -- in addition to the expensive sports stations that no longer have live sports -- but that's another story)
  • Pluto television (free; no subscription); Pluto television is quite remarkable, to say the least;
  • Amazon Echo/Alexa: gets more incredible every day; or perhaps, better said, I keep finding more and better things on Alexa;
Reading, blogging

Cooking and baking

Grilling (once the weather clears)


Unlimited time with Sophia starting this weekend; her TutorTime has closed indefinitely
  • Lego
  • chess
  • learn-how-electricity works: kits
  • microscopy (Sophia wants to see the coronavirus): we don't have an electron microscope but we do have a professional-grade Bausch-and-Lomb; if you don't have one, it is amazing how inexpensive they are over at Amazon
  • Next week -- once the weather clears -- will be the week that Sophia learns to ride her bicycle; she's been on it many times but still needs help; training wheels have been often since last fall;
  • flashcards
  • Bob books
  • painting, drawing, arts and crafts in general
  • iPad Procreate (incredible)
Texas -- I Could Not Have Said It Better Myself

From Power Line:
The economic devastation that is now playing out before our eyes is not caused by the Wuhan flu virus. In the last 21 days, approximately 162,000 Americans have died. Of that number, 150 were killed by the Wuhan virus. If governments at all levels had done nothing, other than eliminating regulatory barriers to the deployment of already-existing medicines, would the virus have killed more Americans? Yes, that is what flu bugs do. Would it kill more than the 13,000 or so who have died from this year’s seasonal flu virus? Who knows? More than the estimated 80,000 who were killed by the flu in the U.S. just two years ago? I doubt it: world-wide, it has killed only a little more than one-tenth that number.
The answers to those questions are speculative, but this is not: by dictating a virtual cessation of economic activity, governments at all levels, but especially state and local, are causing an economic collapse the likes of which, if it continues, we have not seen since the Great Depression, if ever. When has such a government-caused disaster comparably devastated a non-socialist country? Not often. The inflation of the Weimar Republic comes to mind.
I agree with the Wall Street Journal editorial that Scott quoted from this morning, but I think it is too mild. Here is a prediction: the deaths of Americans caused by the Wuhan flu bug will be dwarfed by the suicides committed by people whose life’s savings have been wiped out, whose businesses have been bankrupted, whose jobs have been lost, and whose prospects have been blighted by the insane overreaction we now see from our governments. That overreaction must stop. Right now. Before it is too late, if it is not too late already.
Those kids that went down to south Texas for spring break? Good for them. We need more of that. A bit of civil disobedience. Maybe a lot of civil disobedience.

Flattening the Curve

A reader asked me if "flattening the curve" would really help? My reply:
It appears that the coronavirus curve will be much like the dreaded Bakken decline curve.

For many reasons, there will be a huge increase in the number of cases, and then there will be a gradual decline, taking several months -- just like the Bakken -- and then the curve will flatten out but the virus will be with us "forever." We'll have as many new cases three weeks from now, if not more, than were reported yesterday. Then it gets really interesting.

The bigger question is this: does it matter whether we flatten the curve or not? Like the EUR, the ultimate number of cases should remain approximately the same. Just spread out over time. Perhaps there will be some decrease, but we will never know to what extent things really changed by "flattening the curve." 

Flattening the curve served one big purpose: to give the medical sector time to prepare and spread out the number of serious cases requiring hospitalization. But the bigger problem as I see it: Americans are now conditioned to hunker down for as long as it takes to eradicate this virus.

We've been trying for decades to eradicate polio, and it is still not eradicated despite the fact that we have a vaccine. It will be interesting to see how the "state" determines when it's save to return to normalcy. If based on the number of cases, it's going to be months. Trump already alluded to that -- suggesting it could be late summer or even September, 2020.

Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- March 20, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5266584932

Two wells coming off the confidential list today -- Friday, March 20, 2020: 46 for the month; 217 for the quarter, 217 for the year:
  • 34853, 1,125, CLR, Uhlman Federal 4-7HSL, 40 stages; 9.2  million lbs; Banks, t11/19; cum 101K 1/20; the Uhlman Federal wells are tracked here;
  • 34375, drl, White Butte, Jore Federal 3-12H, Clarks Creek,
RBN Energy: E&Ps slashing already-weak capital spending amid oil price rout.

Looking Out My Back Door -- 
Have You Ever Seen The Rain? LOL

How Low Can We Go? $1.15-Gasoline -- March 20, 2020

Gas Buddy, Oklahoma City:

Bats: Some incredible radar on the weather channel this a.m. out of Texas. Radar captured three "rings" of bats leaving their caves ahead of an incredible thunderstorm in/near Del Rio, TX.

Texas rain: to date, almost 15 inches of rain in Dallas, TX -- a record in 122 years. Yes, in 122 years. Yesterday Dallas experienced another huge thunderstorm.

Right now? Raining in Grapevine, TX. LOL. This is the rainiest spring I can recall in the last twenty years in Texas. Pretty amazing. Even more amazing: I've lived in Texas for more than 20 years, or thereabouts.

Wow, so much going on. Hard to keep up.

Parthian shot: the draconian measures instituted will further widen the income distribution gap. I doubt if any of the one-percenters have even noticed the economic downturn. Diane Feinstein and several others got out of the market well before the market tanked. I'm sure they weren't the only ones. But the hourly workers in many, many sectors are now laid off. Waiters and waitresses really can't work "from home," can they? Airline; energy; hotel/motel/restaurant; most retail.

More later: time to take Sophia to TutorTime -- the last day before they close. They think they will be closed for one week. LOL.

CLR's Steele Federal Wells Starting To Produce -- March 20, 2020

It took a while, but here we go. From a note last August:
August 5, 2019: the CLR Steele wells in Banks oil field, #31520 - #31523, inclusive; #27550; #27551;
This page won't be updated; these are tracked at that link above.

These wells are still listed as SI/NC (DUCs) but they have been fracked and have now reported initial production. These are going to be huge wells:

The wells (the new ones plus the older ones):
  • 31520, SI/NC, CLR, Steele Federal 5-24H1, extrapolates to 37K; fracked 12/14/19 - 12/23/19; 8.2 million gallons of water; 87.8% water by mass; friction reducer, 0.06636;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 31521, SI/NC, CLR, Steele Federal 6-24H, extrapolates to 55K; fracked 12/15/19 - 12/23/19; 9.4 million gallons of water; 86.4% water by mass; friction reducer, 0.06915;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 31522, SI/NC, CLR, Steele Federal 8-24H1, extrapolates to 36K; fracked 12/1/19 -12/13/19; 9 million gallons of water; 88.2 % water by mass; friction reducer, 0.06982;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 31523, SI/NC, CLR, Steele Federal 9-24H, extrapolates to 32K; fracked 12/2/19 - 12/13/19; 10.6 million gallons of water, 86.88% water by mass; friction reducer, 0.06511;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 27550, 1,239, CLR, Steele Federal 3-24AH, t5/15; cum 384K 1/20; extrapolates to 7K; 40 stages; 8 million lbs; 12.9 million gallons of water; ceramic proppant; friction reducer, 0.16372 (no typo -- one wonders if there is a typo at FracFocus, and perhaps should be 0.06372?);
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 27551, 896, CLR, Steele Federal 3-24AH1, t5/15; cum 384K 1/20; extrapolates to 14K; 40 stages; 5.7 million lbs; TD: 22,225 feet; max gas at 20,192' was 4,169 units; gas fairly consistent ranging from 500- 2,000 units throughout the lateral with gas buster venting; 5.9 million gallons of water; sand/ceramic; friction reducer, 0.04637;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

  • 19915, 743, CLR, Steele 1-24H, Banks, t8/11; cum 390K 1/20; offline 11/19- 1/20 for part of each month; off line most of 12/19; 
  • 22273, 609, CLR, Steele 2-24H, Banks, t5/12; cum 265K 1/20; offline 11/19- 1/20 for part of each month; off line most of 12/19;
All Steele / Steele Federal wells in Banks field:
  • 19915, Steele 1-24H -- above
  • 22273, Steele 2-24H -- above
  • 27550, Steele Federal 3-24AH -- above
  • 24333, Steele Federal 3-24H -- pending
  • 24332, Steele Federal 4-24H -- pending
  • 31520, Steele Federal 5-24H1 -- above
  • 31521, Steele Federal 6-24H -- above
  • 31522, Steele Federal 8-24H1 -- above
  • 31523, Steele Federal 9-24H -- above
  • 27551, Steele Federal 4-24AH1 -- above
From the file report, #31520:
  • spud: June 1, 2019
  • TD: July 16, 2019
  • TD: 22,157 feet
  • a three section lateral, Three Forks first bench, see note below
  • vertical
  • target of 11,199' TVD; five trips; began June 1, 2019; official logging began at 8,750' on June 5th
  • KOP: reached at 10,720' MD
  • curve: began June 7, 2019; drilled in 14.5 hours;
  • lateral: Cyclone 35 drilled out of the shoe on the morning of July 12, 2019
  • encountered many hard streaks (sic; strikes?)
  • TD reached at 01:55 hours on July 16, 2019 (slightly less than four days)
  • 100% of the footage in the target zone; and 100% within the first bench;
From the file report, #31521:
  • spud: May 21, 2019
  • TD: July 9, 2019
  • TD: 21,899 feet
  • a three-section lateral, middle Bakken; see note below;
  • official logging began at 8,750 feet on June 11, 2019
  • target of 11,126' TVD for the vertical
  • curve began just after midnight on June 14, 2019; one trip; casing/cement completed June 16, 2019
  • drilled out of the shoe on the morning of July 7, 2019
  • TD: July 9, 2019, 17:57; one BHA run; 
  • drilling time for the lateral: an astounding 2.5 days
  • within the target zone 100%
  • background gas averaged 781 units throughout the lateral; highest gas observed was 5,410 units at 21,021' MD during connection/downtime gas;
Note: they call these "three-lateral" wells which led me to believe they were extended long reach wells, but it appears they are the typical two-section wells, but are sited in a "third section" so as to get the full lateral within the two-section lateral.