Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Coronageddon; $1.20 Gasoline; IRS; Social Distancing; And, All That Jazz -- March 17, 2020

Amazon: assuming Amazon can keep up, Amazon is going to be a huge winner coming out of coronageddon. I was a little slow getting started, but I've picked up the pace, and "stuff" is starting to arrive. Amazon and other options:
  • Amazon said toilet paper was out of stock but with my order last week I was told it would arrive by the end of month; in fact, that order will arrive in two days (Thursday, March 19, 2020)
  • I was worried about formula for the grandsons -- they are being breastfed and supplemented with formula -- same thing -- Amazon said "short delay" -- I got note today the formula would be delivered next week, a week earlier than first told
  • Omaha Steaks: any concern about supermarkets running out of beef? There are at least three on-line sites where one can order beef on line;
  • bread? The shelves were empty -- but then I remembered. Hey! You can bake your own and with the kids home from school what a great time to teach them;
  • Starbucks, McDonalds: what do you know? I can survive without them.
Gas Buddy, Oklahoma City:


Social distancing:


IRS: previously posted. Wow, what incredibly good news. This was the second of only two years in my entire life that I was going to have trouble coming up with the cash to pay the IRS without dipping into investments (I don't have any savings; I am always fully invested). But the three additional months will make all the difference in the world. Again, I've not seen any IRS notice yet to confirm what I've heard.

UPS: I almost forgot. A reader sent me this link -- "The UPS Dogs -- Facebook." It goes on forever. This might be a better way. There are a few things that have really impressed me over the years: Amazon. UPS. Apple. More recently: Alexa; gullibility of the American public.

Newfield's Incredible Hoffman Wells -- March 17, 2020

The Hoffman wells are tracked here. This page will not be updated.This is current production data.
  • 36370, 2,022, Newfield, Hoffman 150-98-18-19-10H, Siverston, t11/19; cum 66K 1/20;
  • 36369, 2,397, Newfield, Hoffman 150-98-18-19-5H, Siverston, t11/19; cum 111K 1/20;
  • 36368, 560, Newfield, Hoffman 150-98-18-19-5H, Siverston, t11/19; cum 93K 1/20; 
  • 36367, 2,490, Newfield, Hoffmann 150-98-17-20-5HLW, Siverston, t11/19; cum 82K 1/20;  
  • 36366, 1,906, Newfield, Hoffman 150-98-17-20-6H, Siverston, t11/19; cum 130K 1/20;
  • 20017, 2,502, Newfield, Hoffman 150-98-18-19-1H, Siverston, t8/11; cum 288K 1/20;

  • 24996, 1,541, Newfield, Lawlar 150-98-18-19-2H, Siverston, t7/13; cum 256K 1/20;
  • 24998, 1,565, Newfield, Lawlar 150-98-18-19-3H, Siverston, t7/13; cum 240K 1/20;
  • 24997, 1,820, Newfield, Lawlar 150-98-18-19-4H, Siverston, t7/13; cum 245K 1/20;
These are incredible wells. I don't know if they are monster wells but they are huge. Example:

36366:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20203147082471628598589413825146899
BAKKEN12-20193125998257074754446649394847165
BAKKEN11-20192857237566281216991007240100724

I Have To Take A Break -- The News Coming In Has Overwhelmed Me -- March 17, 2020

There is some incredible "stuff" going on right now.

First things first: Disney released Frozen 2 on DVD three months earlier than planned. Sophia already has her copy. Watched it last night. She had previously seen it at the movie theater -- before coronavirus.


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Back to the Baken

NDIC Hearing Dockets, link here. These are cases, not permits.

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

The cases (not permits):
  • 28425, Resonance, Exploration, Sergis-Spearfish/Madision field, unitize the Sergis-Spearfish/Madison Unit area, Bottineau County
  • 28426, Resonance Exploration, Sergis-Spearfish/Madison field, "determining the plan of unitization... has been signed, ratified or approved by owner of interest ...'; Bottineau County
  • 28427, Resonance Exploration, Sergis-Spearfish/Madison field, injection of fluids into the unitized formation; Bottineau County;
Tuesday, April 28, 2020 

The cases (not permits):
  • 28428, BR, Haystack Butte-Bakken, unitization, McKenzie County
  • 28429, BR, Haystack Butte-Bakken, "determining the plan of unitization... has been signed, ratified or approved by owner of interest ...'; McKenzie County
Daily activity report: other than the wells released from confidential status, nothing else to report. 

So Much For EU's Open Borders -- March 17, 2020


IRS -- March 17, 2020

The devil is in the details, but it seems pretty straightforward, if accurate. From Zero Hedge:
In news that will delight millions of Americans - at least those who end up owing Uncle Sam a tax bill instead of getting a refund - the US government will postpone the April 15 tax-payment deadline for tens of millions of taxpayers by 90 days, giving Americans roughly 3 months pay their 2019 income-tax bills in an unprecedented move.
The IRS, under the authority of President Trump’s national-emergency declaration, will waive interest and penalties as well, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said at the White House Tuesday. The delay will be available to people who owe $1 million or less and corporations that owe $10 million or less.
The extension was granted to give taxpayers a financial cushion as households and businesses cope with the sudden crash in economic activity caused by the coronavirus outbreak which has brought the US economy to a halt. The move could provide households with hundreds of billions of dollars in temporary liquidity, Mnuchin said last week in previewing the government’s actions.
"We are going to use all the tools we have,” Mr. Mnuchin said on Tuesday. “And what tools we don’t have, we’re going to go to Congress."
Extend this through November 15th, 2020, and President Trump all but guaranteed re-election.

Never let a crisis go to waste.

April 15 -- IRS:
  • 74% of Americans get refunds
  • those owing $1 million or more are not exempt; thus the "one-percenters" are not exempt
  • that leaves at most 25% that would have owed "a bit" more -- the vast majority of taxes due is withheld automatically, and many of the top 25% income earners pay taxes quarterly
  • this 90-day extension will cause almost no problem for the US, and considering that the IRS is probably seeing a lot of absenteeism, this was the smart thing to do
  • and 90-day extensions, taxes will still be due in this fiscal year

Director's Cut Posted -- January, 2020, Data

Link here.

Month-over-month crude oil production drops 3.2%.

The number of wells of line (inactive plus DUCs) jumped an incredible 26%. This sets a new record for the the number of wells off line for operational reasons; the previous record was September, 2019, (3,020). It will be interesting if The Bismarck Tribune posts that. [I have to recheck these numbers -- later -- when there is a jump this big, it needs to be checked.]

Disclaimer: As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be content and typographical errors on this page. I need to check the figures later.

The Director's Cut
Data For November, 2019 
North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here to past reports.

A huge, huge "thank you" to Lynn Helms and his staff at the NDIC getting this information out in a timely and transparent manner. I am not aware of any other state that does such a good job providing such data. 
 
Crude oil production:
  • January, 2020, preliminary: 1,429,515 bopd 
  • previous months:
    • December, 2019, final: 1,476,777 bopd (all-time time was November, 2019)
    • November, 2019, final:1,519,037 bopd -- new all-time high after final figures come in;
      • revenue forecast: 1.4 million bopd
    • October, 2019, final: 1,517,936 bopd -- previous all-time high
    • September, 2019, final, 1,443,980 bopd -- very, very wet September that impacted oil fields
    • August, 2019, final, 1,480,475 bopd (previous all-time high)
    • July, 2019, final: 1,445,934 bopd (previous all-time high)
    • June, 2019, final: 1,425,230 bopd (previous all-time high)
  • month-over-month, bbls: -47,262 bopd  (January, 2020 - December, 2019)
  • month-over-month, percent: - 3.2%  (January, 2020 - December, 2019) 
Gas production:
  • January, 2020, preliminary: 3,014,255 MCF/day; 85% capture rate (improved, month-over-month)
  • Previous months:
    • December, 2019, final: 3,061,412 MCF/day; 84% capture rate (improved, month-over-month)
    • November, 2019, final: 3,165,585MCF/day; new all-time high on a per-day basis; all time on a monthly basis, October, 2019)
      • 83% capture
    • October, 2019, final: 3,070,616 MCF/day
      • 81% capture
    • September, 2019, final: 2,946,391 MCF/day (note -- fell below the 3-billion threshold previously reported)
    • August , 2019, final: 3,014,419 MCF/day -- an all-time high
    • July, 2019, final: 2,944,816 MCF/day
    • June, 2019, final: 2,885,293 MCF/day
BOE, December, preliminary:
  • January, 2020, preliminary
    • natural gas: 3,014,255 MCF/day = 502,287 boe
    • crude oil: 1,429,515 bopd
    • total boe, preliminary for January, 2020: 1,931,802 boepd
  • all-time high, November, 2019: 2,046,547 boepd
Producing wells:
  • January,2020, preliminary; 16,000
  • December, 2019, preliminary; 16,042
  • November, 2019, final: 16,110
  • October, 2019, final: 16,169 (new all-time high)
  • September, 2019, final: 16,115
  • August, 2019, final: 15,964 (all-time high was 15,954, July 2019)
  • July, 2019, final: 15,954 (another new all-time high)
  • June, 2019, 15,752
Wells off-line:
  • January, 2020, preliminary:
    • inactive: 2,607
    • DUCs: 1,024
    • total: 3,631
  • December, 2019, final:
    • inactive: 1,920
    • DUCs: 958
    • total: 2,878
  • November, 2019, final:
    • inactive: 1,726
    • DUCs: 919
    • total: 2,645
Permitting:
  • February,2020: 60
  • January, 2020: 61
  • December, 2019: 67
  • November, 2019: 79
  • October, 2019: 126
  • September, 2019: 92
  • August, 2019: 127
  • July, 2019: 141
  • June, 2019: 127
Rig count:
  • Today: 56 (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/12)
  • January, 2020: 55
  • December, 2019: 55
  • November: 55
  • October: 56
  • September: 61
  • August: 62
  • July: 57
  • June: 63
Fort Berthold Reservation data partitioned out.

Completions:
  • January, 2020: preliminary: 70
  • December, 2019, final: 88 (revised)
    • revenue forecast: 90
  • November, 2019, final: 92
  • October, 2019, final: 102
  • September, 2019, final: 117 (revised up from 94) (revised a second time, up from 112)
  • August, 2019, final: 102
  • July, 2019, final: 137
  • June, 2019, 102 (revised, last month's report); revised again, now, 123
  • May, 2019, 113 (final)
 Gas capture:
  • statewide, captured: 85% (84% prior month; 83% before that)
  • statewide, captured: 
    • January, 2020: 2,547,637 MCF/day (preliminary)
    • December, 2019: 2,557446 MCF/day (final)
    • November, 2019: 2,594,922 MCF/day (new all-time high)
    • October, 2019:  2,524,405 MCF/day
    • September, 2019: 2,429,487 MCF/day
    • previous all time high was May, 2019: 2,287,761 MCF/day
    • FBIR Bakken:
      • January, 2020: 83%
      • December, 2019: 81%
      • November, 2019: 81%
        October, 2019, captured: 70% (was 79% in September)(75% reported two months ago, August, 2019)
Off line, to end of January, 2020: 2,878 -- up significantly from December, 2019 -- 3,631 in December vs 2,878 in November, 2019; an increase of 753 or an 26% increase
  • DUCs: 1,024 (up 66 from the 958 in November; and November was up significantly from October )
  • inactive well count: 2,607 (up 687 from 1,920 in December -- largest increase by far that I've seen month-over-month)
  • wells off line for operational reasons are tracked here;  
  • if I recall correctly, December, 2019, was a fairly "mild" winter by North Dakota standards;
  • January: huge jump in DUCs and inactive wells;
A year earlier, January, 2019, the "off-line well" data:
  • 867, up 44 from the previous report;
  • inactive: 1,517, up 8 from last report -- at the time, that was an impressive number of inactive wells)
  • total: 2,384 (down slightly from 2,332 in the last report; but 2,384 wells is still way more than the total number of wells that will be drilled in North Dakota this year)

Hess To Drop To One Rig In The Bakken -- March 17, 2020

Hess press release, March 17, 2020:
Hess today announced a revised $2.2 billion capital and exploratory budget for 2020, an $800 million reduction from the previous budget of $3.0 billion. The company also announced a new $1.0 billion three year term loan agreement. These actions further strengthen the company's cash position and financial liquidity in response to the sharp decline in oil prices.
"With 80% of our oil production hedged in 2020, our significantly reduced capital and exploratory budget and our new three year loan agreement, our company is well positioned for this low price environment," CEO John Hess said. "Our focus is on preserving cash and protecting our world class investment opportunity in Guyana."
The reductions to the company's 2020 capital budget will be primarily achieved by shifting from a six rig program to one rig in the Bakken, which is expected to be completed by the end of May. Most discretionary exploration and offshore drilling activities, excluding Guyana, will also be deferred.
On March 16, 2020, the company entered into a $1.0 billion three year term loan agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. The term loan contains provisions that require the company to reduce JPMorgan's initial funded amount, which the company intends to do by syndicating the loan to other banks.
In 2020, approximately 80% of the company's oil production is hedged by put options, with 130,000 barrels a day at $55 per barrel West Texas Intermediate put options and 20,000 barrels a day at $60 per barrel Brent put options. In addition, the company entered 2020 with more than $1.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet and has a $3.5 billion undrawn revolving credit facility and no material debt maturities until 2027.
Net production for 2020 is now forecast to average between 325,000 and 330,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, excluding Libya, versus previous guidance of between 330,000 and 335,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company's Bakken net production is forecast to average approximately 175,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2020, versus previous guidance of approximately 180,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. 
This is an incredibly interesting story on so many levels.

This is very, very scary: "Our focus is on preserving cash and protecting our world class investment opportunity in Guyana."

Wouldn't a lot of folks love to get their hands on Guyana?

Anyway, back to the Bakken. This is all about managing their resources. Even with one rig in the Bakken, Hess can still produce a fair amount of oil ... look at that last paragraph ....
The company's Bakken net production is forecast to average approximately 175,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2020, versus previous guidance of approximately 180,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
With six rigs in the Bakken, their previous guidance was 180,000 boepd. With one rig in the Bakken, their new guidance is 175,000 boepd.

Operators are allowed two years to complete a well. From the time they are drilled to depth, until they are completed and producing, they are referred to as shut-in/not completed (SI/NC) or drilled to depth/not fracked, or drilled/uncompleted (DUCs). All the same thing.

The six rigs drilling Hess wells today:
  • Nabors B20
  • Nabors X28 
  • Nabors B26
  • Nabors X27
  • Nabors B23
  • Nabors X24

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- March 17, 2020

Old news, from Reuters, December 20, 2019: Exxon wins climate change lawsuit, as cases over global warming proliferate.

New news: one wonders who "they're" going to sue over coronavirus?

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The Shopping Page

Update: a reader says the Aussies have a solution (see comments). 

These are for my quarantined elderly neighbor who lives next door on a fixed income. Certainly I wouldn't be [caught] hoarding.


It was pretty funny. I was shopping with our oldest granddaughter. The sign said that for all paper products, there was a limit of two per transaction. My granddaughter who follows rules to the letter, said that meant I had to return one package of toilet paper if I was going to buy a roll of paper towels, sort of "mix 'n match" in reverse. I said, "No, it means a limit of two for same items. So two packages of toilet paper and two rolls of paper towels would be allowed."

I finally had to ask. And yes, the cart in the photo was allowed to go through.

I did note that a Texas Ranger was taking down my license plate number.

Seriously, we were one of only two folks buying toilet paper at that time. That suggests the toilet paper shortage is coming to an end in some areas of the country. We did note, and I'm being serious here, there seems to be a developing shortage of beef for grilling.

Remember: this is Texas.

So, is major league baseball going to be canceled for the entire 2020 season? Three and half months since the first coronavirus case was reported in China, they are still reporting new cases and new deaths in China.

In addition, in a sign of being a good neighbor, China has expelled American journalists working for The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and The Washington Post from China. This is to protect American journalists from coronavirus, a key to ensuring the very survival of a free and honest press. [I don't have a subscription to The New York Times, and I can never access their full articles -- except in stories like this. In stories like this, The New York Times will ensure widest dissemination. LOL.]

CLR Reports A Nice Pittsburgh Well -- March 17, 2020


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Back to the Bakken 

CLR's Uhlman/Pittsuburgh wells have been updated; huge wells, including one with 73K bbls crude in one month.

Active rigs:

$28.543/17/202003/17/201903/17/201803/17/201703/17/2016
Active Rigs5665584731

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, March 17, 2020: 36 for the month; 207 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
  • 34847, 922, CLR, Pittsburgh 4-18HSL, Banks, t10/19; cum 95K 1/20; 37K month; 49 stages; 11.1 million lbs;
  • 34378, drl, White Butte, Jore Federal 4-12H, Clarks Creek,
  • 34373, drl, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Jore Federal 11-12TFH, Clarks Creek,
  • 33806, SI/NC, BR, CCU Gopher 6-2-15TFH, Corral Creek, t--; cum --;
RBN Energy: crude export capacity at gulf coast terminals.
With a number of U.S. producers slashing their drilling plans for 2020, crude oil production may flatten or even decline somewhat in the oil-focused basins over the next few months. Still, large volumes of crude — somewhere north or south of 3 MMb/d — will need to be exported from Gulf Coast docks for the foreseeable future to keep U.S. supply and demand in relative balance. That raises the questions of whether more export capacity will be needed, and if so, how much and when? The answers to these questions depend in large part on how much crude the existing marine facilities in Texas and Louisiana can actually handle. Today, we begin a series that details the region’s export-related infrastructure and examines its capacity to stage and load export cargoes this year and beyond.

U.S. crude oil exports have been a leading topic of conversation the past few years, and a frequent focus of RBN’s blogs. Since the ban on most exports of U.S. crude was lifted in late 2015, the volumes of mostly light, sweet crude from the Permian and other U.S. shale plays being shipped overseas have taken off –– from ~600 Mb/d in 2016 to ~1.1 MMb/d in 2017, ~2 MMb/d in 2018 and nearly 3 MMb/d in 2019. Volumes averaged north of 3.1 MMb/d in the first two-plus months of this year, and they often spike higher –– for example, nearly 4 MMb/d was sent out the week ended February 28.
While these gains align with forecasts, in which RBN Energy projected that U.S. crude exports would continue rising to at least 5 MMb/d in 2022 and nearly 6 MMb/d in 2024, that high-growth trajectory now appears unlikely to be maintained due to the recent collapse in oil prices and the resulting cuts in U.S. producers’ 2020 drilling plans. Still, U.S. production has the momentum of a moving train; it will take weeks and even a few months for output — and the anticipated need for additional exports — to come down much from current levels.
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Watching Frozen 2

Brand new Blu-Ray DVD, Frozen 2, watched by the family for the first time last night.

I think this may be my favorite photograph ever.

The innocence of childhood.

The Carnival Is Over, No St Patrick's Day Parade Today -- March 17, 2020

ESPN: all day, today -- "Tom Brady will leave the Patriots." Pretty funny -- nothing to talk about so they will talk about this story all day.

From a reader (see comments over at "who's kidding whom"): one of my favorites -- posted on the blog more than once --

The Carnival is Over, The Seekers

Yes, for Saudi, the carnival is over. I don't know if folks caught this one.