Friday, March 6, 2020

Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- March 6, 2020

No new permits.

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 33184, A/SI, BR, Franklin 34-36MBH, 33-025-03250, Little Knife, t--; cum --; minimal production; fracked 10/1819 - 10/26/19; 7.4 million gallons of water; 87.5% water by mass;
  • 31492, A/SI, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-1A-7-5H, 33-053-07045, Charlson, t--; cum 42K over 39 days; 32K month; fracked 8/11/19 - 8/19/19; 12.5 million gallons of water; 91.8% water by mass;
  • 35899, A/SI, Slawson, Slasher Federal 6-22-27H, 33-061-04391, Big Bend, t--; cum --; no production; fracked 11/11/19 - 11/27/19; 12.5 million gallons of water, 95.2% water by mass;
  • 36855, A/drl, Kraken, Colfax 19-8 6H, 33-105-05295, Oliver, t--; cum --; 5K over 7 days; no frack data;
  • 36856, A/drl, Kraken, 33-105-05296, Mathewson 30-31 5H, Oliver, t--; cum 6K over 7 days; no frack data; 
  • 36235, SI/NC, Whiting, Lindseth 11-1HU, 33-061-04437, Alger, t--; cum 42K 1/10; 32K month; fracked 11/5/19 - 11/15/19; 8.6 million gallons of water; 81.5% water by mass;
Ten permits renewed:
  • Rimrock Oil & Gas (6): six Charging Eagle permits in Dunn County;
  • Petro-Hunt (2): two Blikre permits, both in Burke County;
  • BR: a Stortroen permit in McKenzie (this is in addition to the 42 permits BR renewed yesterday)
  • Resource: a Shorty permit in Divide County

Most Interesting Development -- March 6, 2020

Updates

Later, 2:39 p.m. Central Time: an eagle-eyed reader caught this one. Look at the story below.
  • Time line:
    • story published today by The Williston Herald 
    • pipeline to be operational by April 1, 2020
    • PSC hearing two weeks later: April 14, 2020
    • time to construct: 6 - 8 weeks
  • Comments:
    • either a typographical error, and more likely to be operational by July 1, 2020; or, 
    • "they" have the ditch dug, pipe in place; just waiting for the go-ahead?  
Or someone's watching too many re-runs of "Back To The Future."
 
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Original Post

Link here.
As the amount of Bakken gas production has increased, future BTU limits on the Northern Border pipeline have become more and more likely. That’s prompting a unique proposal for an alternative, high-BTU gas market in the Williams-Mountrail County region.
Liberty Midstream Solutions is proposing a 4.7 mile, 8-inch residue pipeline on privately owned lands in the area to take high-BTU residuals to an existing third-party line, from where it could be sent to markets in Chicago.
The Alliance Sales Line would carry up to 80 million cubic feet per day for an estimated construction cost of $4.6 million.
The Public Service Commission has set a public hearing for the pipeline at 9 a.m. April 14 at Neset Consulting Service in Tioga. The company has asked for waivers of some procedures and timelines to expedite construction.
Liberty hopes to have the line operational by April 1, 2020. It would take six to eight weeks to construct.
Much, much more at the link. Archived.

Maps:


Only In The Bakken: A Bakken DUC Out-Produces The Average Permian Well -- March 6, 2020

Comparing the Bakken with the Permian? Here are the dashboards --
EIA dashboards:
A closer look at the two wells that came off the confidential list today:
  • 35100, SI/NC, Oasis, 33-053-086100, Kellogg Federal 5297 12-30 8T, Banks, a DUC, but with huge production; 8.8 million gallons of water; 93.7% water by mass;
  • 23958, 2,719, EOG, 33-061-02281, Liberty LR 107-1109H, Parshall, t9/19; cum 178K 1/10; 53 stages, 22.8 million lbs; 12.5 million gallons of water, 82% water by mass;
First, #23958, EOG, middle Bakken, 53 stages; 22.8 million lbs (no typo):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20203121837217703670117556171914
BAKKEN12-201931271282719145940152971497013
BAKKEN11-20193035307353465904019680174121918
BAKKEN10-20193138687391807223926707246251716
BAKKEN9-20192555045541599509838709378650

Now, #35100, Oasis, yes, it's still classified as a DUC. This is pretty good for a DUC:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20203113750137532543836120348621041
BAKKEN12-20193118076180733197644105419441943
BAKKEN11-2019301819618197349934317342075888
BAKKEN10-20193123457235893755651515465644734
BAKKEN9-2019103059291881095921583220
BAKKEN8-20190000000

Observations:
  • mega-frack by EOG -- 22.8 million lbs of proppant; EOG has always pushed the envelope on sand; they had their own sources; first to build a terminal unloading facility in the Bakken, etc.
  • and look at this: total gallons of water not all that high in that EOG mega-frack: only 12.5 million gallons; well, if they didn't use so much water mr-know-it-all, why did the proppant "weigh" so much -- look at the percent water to total amount of proppant -- 82%. Generally, operators use around 93% water by mass; sometimes as low as 87% but "never" as low as 82%; EOG used a lot of sand, but not that much more water than usual for the Bakken; sand weights 1.6x that of water;
  • for a DUC, #35100 is producing nicely (yes, I know, technically it's no longer a DUC, it's been completed, but according to the NDIC scout ticket, still a DUC - SI/NC)
  • #23958, back to that EOG mega-frack; it produced 55K bbls of crude oil in 25 days; extrapolates to 66K bbls in a 30-day month;
  • neighboring wells to that EOG mega-frack; both neighbors not that close to the new well, but:
    • one: a subtle jump in production; not much production increase, but nice to see a bit of a jump;
    • the second: a larger jump in production; not huge, but more noticeable;
  • the EOG mega-frack well on a pad with four locations to drill:
    • one of the others is still LOC only; #33434;
    • the other two are big producers but still on conf status (#33433, #33432)
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FracFocus



Links:
nice review, 2019;
2018;
2019;
minimal info, 2019;

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Commentary

Shortly after posting the original note (and before I added the FracFocus data and the links, I received this note from a reader (and that's why I added the FracFocus data and the links). I purposely delayed posting the reader's note to give me a chance to do some background. Here's the reader's comments:
Bit of a coincidence that, just today, I was reading a bit about a company touting its brand of High Viscosity Friction Reducer (HVFR) that could be variably tweaked to carry a LOT of proppant, if the operator so chose. 
Regarding this EOG well ... 12.5 million gallons water used for frac'ing is ~298 thousand barrels.
Yet, in just a few months, ~309 thousand barrels have been recovered.
I am wondering if EOG has uncovered a method to maintain VERY high pressure underground, deliver a VERY high payload of proppant, and not use an inordinately high amount of water to do this.
Several potential ramifications immediately come to mind ... one being a diminished halo effect (water not travelling/impacting adjacent wells).
Another consequence could be reduced incidence of frac hits (again, lowered water amount and MUCH tighter control of the frac geometry).
As you might say "don't want to get ahead of my headlights", but if my speculations are correct, this could usher in another iteration of well completion technology. Keeping an eye on this well's future production could be very informative.

Coronavirus? Italy Is Out Of Control; Jobs? Making America Great -- March 6, 2020

The numbers are in: Italy is out of control. We've been air travel from China (only 167 new cases overnight) but not Italy (778 new cases overnight). What am I missing?


Jobs, making America great!



First Thing That Popped Up On My Twitter Notification This Morning -- Probably Not The Sharpest Knives In The Drawer -- March 6, 2020

Fantastic! Someone put this up on YouTube. I hope it's never removed. One needs to listen to Brian Williams' honest astonishment. What a doofus:

</
Really Bad Math, Brian Williams

Former NBC evening news anchor.

NYT editorial board member.

Journalist. 

All agree. Mini Mike could have given each American $1.53 million to each American for all the money he spent on his campaign.


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Speaking Of Sharp Knives



"Maybe I should have given each American $2 million."



The Babylon Bee is more accurate than CNN and MSNBC and much more entertaining.

The Wall. Good news:
At a press conference Wednesday, President Trump assured the public that the coronavirus is under control. He also stated that the threat of the virus has now changed the design of his wall on the Mexican border, as Trump has ordered that the steel slats that compose it be moved closer together so that the coronavirus can’t slip through.
“This wall will be coronavirus-proof,” Trump stated. “The virus is going to come to the border and be like, ‘I’m going to infect Americans!’ But then it will see our beautiful wall and be like, ‘Guess I’ll just have to stay here and infect Mexicans or go farther south and infect people in like Portugal or something.’”
Trump had already previously asked for a redesign of the wall when he found out that the slats were far enough apart that squirrels could slip through, as he reportedly said, “America already has enough squirrels and we don’t need any Mexican squirrels.”

From Williston Economic Developement Office -- March 6, 2020



Predicted years ago: 16,000 wells need a lot of "maintaining."


Morning News And Comment From "Out West"; That Seasonal Flu Vaccine? "It's Better Than Nothing" -- CDC -- March 6, 2020

Note: nothing about the Bakken here. If you came here looking for the Bakken, scroll up, scroll down, swipe right, and dance all around.

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Exodus

BLM: cuts half of its Washington, DC-based staff in half -- at least that could be the headline. 

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has lost more than half of its Washington-based employees who were slated to move out West as the agency pushes ahead with a controversial plan to relocate staff.
New internal numbers from the Interior Department obtained by The Hill show 69 employees have left the agency rather than accept the new assignment. Another 18 left after the plans were announced but before they could be reassigned.
Those 87 employees outnumber the 80 who have agreed to the move.
The figures are at odds with the ones referenced in December by acting BLM Director William Perry Pendley, who said in an email that roughly two-thirds of staffers had agreed to move.
“This is a huge brain drain,” said Steve Ellis, who retired from BLM’s top career-level post in 2018. “There is a lot of really solid expertise walking out the door.” 
There is some question whether one can use "brain drain" and BLM in the same paragraph, much less the same sentence.

Not to worry: there are a lot of very smart, some of them even college-educated, patriotic Americans "out West." LOL -- the article doesn't even mention where the agency is moving. I guess "out West" is as close as the reporter could recall. 

Out West. Wow, I haven't used that phrase in ages. Out West.

Heard on the public address system, BLM headquarters, Washington, DC: 

Happy Trails, Roy Rogers and Dale Evans

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Notes To The Granddaughters

You could do worse than reading Angel Unaware by Dale Evans.

I had never read the wiki entry for Dale Evans until now. Absolutely fascinating. Generally after reading the first few lines of a wiki bio, I quit and move on. This time, I read much more and am so glad I did.

I have very, very few memories of any specific events during the first seven or eight years of my life, but many of them are quite poignant. One of my favorite memories, for example, is taking the lead in the team project to draw an Eskimo/igloo/North Pole drawing while in first grade. LOL. So funny on so many levels. North Dakota in the winter -- the teacher must have told us to draw a picture of our town. I remember arguing with my classmates about the size, shape, and location of the hole that we were "drilling" in the frozen lake from which to fish. But I digress.

We had very, very few books in the house. I recall two. One: a set of encyclopedias. I honestly don't remember the publisher. Definitely not Britannica. Not Colliers. Maybe Funk and Wagnalls -- that would be best bet simply based on the odds. My maternal grandmother was a public school teacher; my mother had a great education and took education very seriously; it's possible my mother had access to Funk and Wagnalls when growing up and kept the tradition in our 722 17th Street West, Williston, ND, home. That set of encyclopedias was kept in the hallway closet, up out of reach until we could reach them about age eight or so. One really couldn't see the individual books because the hallway was so dark, so you sort of guessed when taking out a volume.

The only other book I recall in that hallway closet was Angel Unaware by Dale Evans. I remember reading the book -- at least starting it; I don't know if I finished it. I was greatly affected by something called "Down syndrome" or whatever it was called then. One wonders if that foreshadowed my eventual vocation: pediatrics. Who knows? God works in mysterious ways.

Pretty funny. Had a reader not sent me the story of the BLM moving "out West" ....

Of all the books my mother would have bought -- this is most interesting -- the book was first published in 1953. Doing the math, the book was probably in the house by 1961. Mom had very, very little money and did not spend money frivolously. There must  have been a backstory to why we had that book in the house, but we will never know.

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Seasonal Flu Update

Link here. Seems more user-friendly than the CDC site.
  • US seasonal flu cases reach 32 million
  • Pediatric hospitalization rates hit record high
  • so far this season:
    • 18,000-seasonal-flu related deaths
    • taking 0.1% as the fatality rate, 18 million cases in the US so far this year
    • 18 million / 180 = 100,000 new cases yesterday; 100 new deaths yesterday
    • vaccine less than 45% effective; CDC: vaccine offers "substantial" benefits; really?
  • From the CDC:
According to the CDC, for the younger populations, hospitalization rates have reached the highest on record since influenza reporting began in 2004-5. The hospitalization rate for children and young adults has surpassed the rate documented during the second wave of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

The percentage of deaths related to pneumonia and influenza is currently 6.9%, which is below the epidemic threshold of 7.3%. While mortality for this season is considered low, there have been 125 influenza-associated deaths in children thus far this season. This figure is also higher than every season since reporting began, with the exception of the 2009 pandemic.
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Coronavirus Update

Tracked here

Statistics for March 5, 2020: about in line with previous couple of days. We should start seeing number of cases rise significantly in the US over the next ten days. Reasons for this marked increase were presented earlier.

New data point on which mainstream media will focus today: globally, more than 100,000 cases have been reported; closing in on 3,500 deaths. Mostly deplorables, I suppose.

By country:
  • Italy: out of control. We might see 1,000 new cases in Italy "today" -- March 6, 2020;  
    • Vatican City reports its first case; the Pope is coughing and canceling all public engagements;
    • by any definition: voluntary quarantine;
  • Iran: out of control; up by an astounding 1,234 cases in one day: with 16 new deaths;
  • Russia: still under control with only four total reported cases; which is two less than Belarus which Putin will soon "annex"; Alaska: Seward's Folly; Belarus: the Silent Annexation.
  • China: now reporting about 150 new cases each day; about 35 new deaths each day;
  • South Korea: 309 new cases; one new death; 45 / 6,593 = 0.6% fatality rate;
  • US: at 233 total cases has 12 new cases so far today; by the end of the day, that number will increase significantly; clipboard nurses have just begun going on rounds;
Advice to VP Pence:
  • daily updates with what to expect, not what happened;
    • it will make it look like the "experts" know what it actually going on, rather than simply reacting
  • AI should be a big help tracking trends; projecting "what's next"
  • best method to communicate: one-on-one with media outlet; best bet: a media outlet that can do the math (that rules out MSNBC)
  • announce a major effort to flood country with availability of masks; it's beyond me to understand why this hasn't already been done; shortages of perceived necessities lead to more panic buying; my hunch: there's a warehouse somewhere in St Louis, MO -- where the Ark is stored -- with a gazillion masks;
Vaccine:
  • the vaccine bar is set very, very low
    • seasonal flu vaccine less than 45% effective but CDC says it offers "substantial" benefits -- particularly for drug companies, and neighborhood corner drugstores
    • if a vaccine only has to be 45% effective to be recommended by the CDC, we should have had a coronavirus vaccine out some weeks ago 
  • new CDC marketing campaign: "better than nothing"
Rand Paul: the lone US senator to vote against the $8.3 billion Cororavirus Response funding bill. Two more unreported facts:
  • Rand Paul: the only US senator to have actually read the bill
  • Rand Paul: whether he wanted more or less to be spent?
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Politics

Tucker: is generally good. I can take him or leave him but his opinion piece today is particularly good. Google Tucker Carlson: Elizabeth Warren proved conclusively you can't get elected on identity politics.

Other headlines:
  • Mitt Romney will block further Biden investigations; some folks are above the law [Later: if I heard correctly Mitt Romney will NOT block the US Senate subpoenas looking into Biden investigations];
  • Brian Williams of MSNBC: Mike Bloomberg spent $1.53 million / American -- Brian has not made any correction; in fact, Bloomberg spent "only" $1.53/American based on reported figures
  • Nadler supports end of FISA Court
  • apparently the rhetoric was much worse than what was generally reported

Rush: wow, I'm going to really, really miss Rush when he's gone. He is truly incredible. With his beard, he no longer has a television face (probably never had a television face) but his radio voice is as strong and as good as ever. Love him, hate him: wow, he's good. 

From a reader:
"I've compiled a comprehensive list of all the people Bernie Sanders has lifted out of poverty in his 40-year career in politics:
1. Bernie Sanders.
2.🧐"

Brent At $47.70; WTI Below $44; Focus On Bakken Midstream, RBN Energy -- March 6, 2020

Active rigs:

$43.893/6/202003/06/201903/06/201803/06/201703/06/2016
Active Rigs5467604435

Wells coming off confidential list today:  
Friday, March 6, 2020: 9 for the month; 180 for the quarter, 180 for the year:
  • 35100, SI/NC, Oasis, 33-053-086100, Kellogg Federal 5297 12-30 8T, Banks, a DUC, but with huge production; see this note;
  • 23958, 2,719, EOG, 33-061-02281, Liberty LR 107-1109H, Parshall, t9/19; cum 178K 1/10; see this note;
RBN Energy: Enable Midstream and Crestwood's Bakken crude oil gathering systems, part 3. Archived.
It’s been a good couple of years for many of the midstream companies active in the Bakken. Crude oil-focused drilling and completion activity has rebounded from a mid-decade slump, flows through their crude and gas gathering systems have been rising, and gas processing constraints that had threatened continued production growth have been on the wane. All that has led Bakken producers to plan for further gains in output in 2020 –– though that may change as the economic effects of the coronavirus become clearer. In any case, production growth is only possible if there’s sufficient gathering infrastructure in place to handle it. Today, we continue our series on crude-related assets in western North Dakota with a look at two midstreamers that have experienced big gains in their Bakken crude-gathering volumes.
As we said earlier, Bakken crude production has been rising steadily over the past three-plus years, topping its previous December 2014 peak of ~1.26 MMb/d in July 2018, then topping 1.4 MMb/d in October of that year and 1.5 MMb/d in October 2019. Not that there haven’t been challenges to that growth, including a shortfall in crude oil pipeline capacity out of the play — which was largely solved by the June 2017 startup of the Dakota Access Pipeline — and, more recently, the need for more gas processing capacity to handle the large volumes of associated gas emerging from Bakken wells with crude oil. Gas processing constraints are well on their way to being solved, thanks to the addition of a number of new processing plants in 2019 and early 2020, and the late-2019 startup of the Elk Creek NGL pipeline that will help folks deal with all the mixed NGLs coming out of those processing plants. In addition, we explained that while growth-oriented producers can get by for a while by trucking their incremental crude oil production to takeaway pipelines and crude-by-rail terminals, it is far more efficient and cost-effective for them to develop, expand and employ crude gathering systems. That’s especially true in the heart of the shale play in western North Dakota’s McKenzie, Dunn, Williams and Mountrail counties, which together account for nearly 90% of the Bakken’s ~1.5 MMb/d of current production.
Later, we began our review of major crude gathering systems in the Bakken with a look at Hess Midstream’s pipelines and related assets. Owned primarily by Hess Corp. — a leading Bakken producer — and Global Infrastructure Partners, Hess Midstream owns and operates about 400 miles of crude oil gathering pipelines with a throughput capacity of 160 Mb/d, as well as two crude oil terminals, a crude header system and a big crude-by-rail facility.
Today, our focus shifts to the crude-related systems and assets owned by two other good-sized midstreamers: Enable Midstream Partners and Crestwood Equity Partners.

RBN Energy has reviewed the crude oil gathering systems of three of the Bakken’s largest midstream players: Hess Midstream, Crestwood Energy Partners and Enable Midstream Partners. In the next episode in this series, RBN ENergy will look at a few more.

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Backyard Patio