Monday, February 24, 2020

Good Night, Good Luck To All -- February 24, 2020

Because of family commitments today -- lots and lots of Uber-granddaughter driving, and cooking, I am physically and mentally exhausted. Not really physically exhausted or mentally exhausted, but I just need a few hours to re-charge my batteries, so I will be signing off early.

I won't be answering any more e-mail or posting any more comments tonight. I will be back tomorrow, about 7:00 a.m. Central Time.

But wow, what an incredible twenty-four hours.

These are the things that are keeping the synapses firing tonight.

Alexa / Echo / Amazon: jazz. Surprisingly good. I mean, really, really good.

JFK assassination: I'm back in that "phase" again with the Dorothy Kilgallen story.


Coronavirus: news from Italy and South Korea over the weekend really, really spooked the market. The most recent data: is anyone really paying attention? Does anyone really know what's going on? Dumbest public health decision: quarantine an entire cruise ship; one huge petri dish.

Coronavirus conspiracy: does anyone still believe that the coronavirus "jumped" from a live animal food market? More and more it looks like the 7-gene critter "escaped" from a Chinese bio-warfare lab. At least that's the buzz.


CLR: damn the torpedoes; full speed ahead in Cedar Coulee.

Ethane / North Dakota: I have a lot yet to learn in this arena.

Investing. What an incredible opportunity; we don't get the investing opportunities often.

Admit it: when the "black swan" takes flight, who would you rather have in the White House: Barack Obama; the Donald; or, Bolshevik Bernie?

MSNBC: as a rule, I "never, never, ever" watch MSNBC, but I have to admit -- I started watching a little bit of MSNBC this past week. I have never had so much fun watching a US political party implode. And how far into the campaign are we? One primary. New Hampshire. That's it. There were two caucuses. So, three states altogether.

Nevada delegates: have they all been awarded yet? Two days after the caucuses, the majority of delegates were still not delegated. LOL. Fourteen thousand votes and two days later they are still tallying them. Buttigieg claims disparities. Ah, yes, here they are: Sanders with 24; Biden with nine; and, Buttigieg with three. Pocahontas with zero. Nada. Zilch.

Democrat ticket: the betting is now on Sanders - Warren. LOL. On top of everything else, they are practically from the same state (Massachusetts, Vermont).

Television: I generally don't watch Fox -- in fact I generally don't watch cable at all except for NASCAR, golf, Turner Classic Movies (TCM). Network television? Never. Unless it's sports. But I have to admit, I turn to MSNBC for a few minutes at the top of selected hours (7:00 a.m.; 8:00 p.m.; and 9:00 p.m. Central Time, just to see the spin.

Bloomberg: yesterday I saw the Bloomberg ads were becoming a nuisance. Today we learn that Bloomberg had a massive surge in advertising following his dreadful debate.

Debate: if Bloomberg, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg can't de-throne Bolshevik Bernie in the next debate it will tell me one thing: the candidates are not watching game film. They need to take a cue from college and professional sports teams -- watch the game film of their competitors over and over and over. Watch the film of the past debates; it's obvious how to take on Bernie.

Coronavirus Update -- Is Anyone Paying Attention? -- February 24, 2020

Updates

February 25, 2020: see comments. A reader suggests this site if interested in economic impact of coronavirus: 
It would also be nice to see economic impacts if Bernie Sanders' proposals were all enacted.


Original Post
 
Coronavirus: tracked at the sidebar at the right.

Statistics here; below, statistics as of February 24, 2020 -- posted just a few hours ago:
Four stats to follow:
  • daily deaths growth factor: steep drop (very good)
  • total deaths, change in total, day-over-day, down again (very good); at 3%;
  • daily deaths, change in daily, day-over-day, huge drop, minus 49 percent (incredibly good news);
  • global stats by country; link here, new deaths since last report:
    • China: 71 (huge jump)
    • South Korea: 1
    • Italy: 0 (and only two more cases)
      • Austria halts train traffic with Italy -- two days ago
      • Turkey closes Iran border -- two days ago
Statistics for February 23, 2020, yesterday, were alarming and shocked equity markets and oil markets worldwide.

Absolutely fascinating.

A Closer Look At CLR Activity In Cedar Coulee Oil Field -- A Very, Very Small Field-- February 24, 2020

Posts with CLR permits in Cedar Coulee in the last four months:
The twenty CLR Gale / Rodney wells; of the twenty, at least eight are Three Forks, first bench wells:

Graphics of the Cedar Coulee oil field and the Gale/Rodney wells.



Currently producing wells of interest:
  • 22434, 738, CLR, Gale 2-32H, Cedar Coulee, t12/12; cum 269K 12/19;
  • 22436, 1,070, CLR, Gale 3-32H, Cedar Coulee, t1/13; cum 229K 12/19;
  • 17211, 240, CLR, Gale 1-32H, Cedar Coulee, t8/08; cum 149K 12/19;


  • 22433, 667, CLR, Rodney 2-29H, Cedar Coulee, t1/13; cum 173K 12/19;
  • 22435, 648, CLR, Rodney 3-29H, Cedar Coulee, t12/12; cum 155K 12/19;
  • 17159, 811, CLR, Rodney 1-29H, Cedar Coulee, t8/08; cum 165K 12/19;

Daily Activity Report For Today Not Posted -- Number Of Active Rigs In ND Plunge -- February 24, 2020

A reminder, previously posted, an interactive "chart" -- S&P Global Platts -- the "periodic table of oil."

Active rigs (the number this morning was 54):

$51.702/24/202002/24/201902/24/201802/24/201702/24/2016
Active Rigs4966574139

Sixteen new permits, #37395 - #37410, inclusive:
  • Operators: CLR (13); MRO (2); Liberty Resources
  • Fields: Cedar Coulee; Reunion Bay, Enget Lake
  • Comments:
  • CLR has permits for thirteen more Gale/Rodney wells in NWNE/NENE section 32-147-96, Cedar Coulee;
  • MRO has permits for two wells; one a Wallentinson USA well in NESE section 8-151-94, Reunion Bay; and, a Stanfest USA well in the same section; same field;
  • Liberty Resources has a single permit for an Ester well in NWNW section 28-158-93; Enget Lake oil field;
permits canceled: pending
permits renewed: pending
producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: pending

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- February 24, 2020

Clearing out the in-box. These are for my benefit. I saw the headlines, but did not have time to read the articles:
  • Global warming: FERC rules clean energy must pay higher market price in New York, Reuters
  • Boxing: one of the great performances in heavyweight history, Powerline
  • Iran: Soleimani's assassination leaves Revolutionary Guard reeling, Powerline
  • India: earlier I asked whether President Trump really addressed 110,00 people. Link here.
JFK assassination: I'm back in this "phase." It started quite awhile ago when I became fascinated with Dorothy Kilgallen. And I'm mostly fascinated with her reporting. Who knew? I've been culling my library. I have gone through several phases in my life regarding literature and reading. I'm clearing out my Ernest Hemingway library and my Mark Twain library. It will be "emotionally" easy to get rid of my Anaïs Nin library, but I'm not sure what to do with those books. I certainly can't give them to high school libraries. Some of the best of this very long video is in the Q&A.

McDonald's: there must be a new owner-manager of the McDonald's that has become my new home for blogging. He and his companion (husband/wife?) have been here every morning for the past six or seven days. They have breakfast here every day. Then they go over a lot of paperwork. Today, they are doing a very exhaustive walk-around checking everything inside and outside the restaurant. Two McDonald's worker-bees are trailing behind and along-side with clipboards, taking notes. Quite interesting. Later: inside getting a real cleaning by the McDonald's employees. Enough of this. I'm heading out. Good luck to all.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- February 24, 2020

From another post on the blog, re-posting:

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Politics

February 24, 2020: fabulous recipe as reported by Leesa K. Donner --
In every one of these categories, Trump rally metrics show that American support for the president is bigger, stronger, and louder than 2016. Again, these are are metrics from the Trump rallies:
  • Toledo, OH: 22% identified as Democrats, 21% as independents; 15% had not voted in the last four presidential contests.
  • Hershey, PA: 18% of attendees were non-white.
  • Milwaukee, WI: 57.9% did not have a history of voting Republican.
  • Phoenix, AZ: 18% identified as Democrats, 26% didn’t vote in 2016.
Recipe: Death By A Thousand Cuts

The recipe:
One cup of people from the other party, two teaspoons of independents, a dash of black voters, and you have one hell of a recipe for Democrat Disaster Flambé. 
If these statistics are a harbinger of things to come then it’s all over save the fat lady bursting into “God Bless America.”

And that, my friends, is what has the Democrats freaking out.
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Twisting In The Wind

This will be most interesting, to watch Joe Scarborough, et al, endorse Bernie Sanders for president. 

Twist In My Sobriety, Tanita Tikaram
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More Politics
 
A reader asked whether I was accurate in an earlier post:
Did Bloomberg really say it doesn't take any gray matter to be a farmer? 
Answer: links everywhere. Here is one.
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More Politics

The Bloomberg ads are becoming a real nuisance.  

It's Gonna Be One Of Those Mondays -- February 24, 2020

Coronavirus: spooks the global economy. Data for February 23, 2020, alarms the media, the market. The story is tracked at the sidebar at the right; statistics are here Raw numbers not concerning; percentages are concerning and trends are very concerning.

Nevada: it's hard to believe, but not all votes are in yet. And no one is reporting on that. This morning, though, "we" should have 100% of the results.

Flashback: if you love conspiracy theories, this one is really quite good. LOL. Dorothy Kilgallen. If nothing else, it will take your mind off a) coronavirus; b) the market; c) Bernie; d) Steyer. Okay, not Steyer. He's downright strange.

Market: and, yes, I am buying today.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 


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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:

$51.402/24/202002/24/201902/24/201802/24/201702/24/2016
Active Rigs546657413

Wells coming off the confidential list:
Monday, February 24, 2020: 52 for the month; 159 for the quarter, 159 for the year:
  • 36858, SI/NC, Slawson, Shakafox 7-28-21MLH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 36565, SI/NC, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Emerson Claire 33-28-159N-100W MBH, Blue Ridge, no production data,
Sunday, February 23, 2020: 50 for the month; 157 for the quarter, 157 for the year:
  • 36564, drl, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Emerson Claire 33-28-159N-100W MBH, Blue Ridge, no production data,  
Saturday, February 22, 2020: 49 for the month; 156 for the quarter, 156 for the year:
  • None.
RBN Energy: what REX pipeline's contract changes mean for gas flows, prices.
After a major decontracting and partial recontracting last fall, Tallgrass Energy’s Rockies Express Pipeline headed into 2020 with 839 MMcf/d in firm, long-haul commitments for natural gas moving east out of the Rockies for delivery into the Midwest. That volume is down from 1.3-1.8 MMcf/d in firm commitments previously. The contracted volume is also much lower than the peak — and even the average — historical gas flows on the route to the Midwest markets in recent years. At the same time, Tallgrass’s Cheyenne Connector pipeline and Cheyenne Hub Enhancement projects are expected to bring as much as 800 MMcf/d of new firm gas supply from the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin to the REX mainline at Cheyenne Hub. What will these changes mean for Rockies’ eastbound flows and prices? Today, we wrap up our series on REX’s recontracting with an assessment of how the recent contract changes could affect REX gas flows.
REX historically has been contracted and utilized at high rates for long-haul flows east from the Rockies to the Midwest, and at one point, also into the Northeast. Inflows of Rockies supply into the Northeast have long been displaced by Marcellus/Utica shale gas. Much of Zone 3 — the easternmost third of REX, from eastern Missouri to eastern Ohio — flows westward from the eastern terminus in Clarington, OH. However, as much as nearly 1.8 Bcf/d as of last year was still flowing east from Zone 1 (the westernmost third of the pipe) across the Missouri-Illinois border into the westerly portion of Zone 3.
About 772 MMcf/d of the system’s legacy long-term contracts for eastbound flows out of the Rockies expired on November 11, 2019.