Thursday, February 20, 2020

Note To Readers -- February 20, 2020

I am exhausted tonight, and I assume that will be the norm for the next several weeks.

My wife is in Portland, OR, and I'm the Uber-granddaughter driver (three granddaughters), their cook, and whatever else is required, and by the time I get home, I'm pretty exhausted. From 3:00 p.m. to around 10:00 p.m. I am with the granddaughters: water polo; soccer; skating; etc.

There is so much happening, but I won't get to these stories until morning. I may not see comments until each morning.

But, wow, I'm in a great mood.

This is why I'm so exhausted tonight:


Our oldest granddaughter's school had a skating party tonight. Sophia really wanted to go. But she needed help, of course. But, wow, what a trooper. The skating party was from 6:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. and Sophia skated the full two hours, and I had to hold her "walker" the entire time. I'm not kidding. Two hours of skating, hunched over. And Sophia loved it.

The video clip was taken by the high school granddaughter -- I wish it had been longer, but I'm happy we got what we got.

Sophia and I rented our skates, of course (some students had their own skates). When I went up to the counter to get may skates, all I could see on the shelves were four-wheel skates. The young man asked, "skates or blades?"

Having spent my formative years in Los Angeles, I thought he was asking with which high school gang I was associated, think: "Crips or Bloods?" He repeated, "skates or blades," and then I remembered "roller blades." LOL.

I used to roller blade along the Venice (Los Angeles, CA) many decades ago but had not roller bladed in such a long time, I completely forgot all about them.

Cruisin' (Sunset Sam), Michael Nesmith

I was the only adult on the skating rink. Sophia was one of two non-high school students.

Brand New Key, Melanie

By the end of the night, Sophia was doing quite well.

Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead: CLR With Seven New Permits In Cedar Coulee -- February 20, 2020

Active rigs:

$53.542/20/202002/20/201902/20/201802/20/201702/20/2016
Active Rigs5566564038

Eight new permits, #37395 - #37402, inclusive:
  • Operators: CLR (7); MRO
  • Fields: Cedar Coulee (Mountrail); Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has four Gale permits / three Rodney permits in NWNE 32-147-96, Cedar Coulee;
    • MRO has a single permit for a Wallentinson permit, in NESE 8-151-93, Reunion Bay
No permits canceled.

No permits renewed.

No producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed. 

***********************************************
The CLR Cedar Coulee Permits

Graphics:



Cedar Coulee activity:
37112, ros/drl, CLR, Kate ...Big Gulch, Three Forks first bench;
37113, drl, CLR, Kate ...Big Gulch,m middle Bakken;
37114, drl, CLR, Kate ...Big Gulch, Three Forks first bench;
37115, drl, CLR, Kate ...Big Gulch, middle Bakken;
37116, drl, CLR, Kate ...Big Gulch, Three Forks first bench;

12785, 5 (no typo), Leland Oil & Gas, LLC, Carus Fee 21-19, Big Gulch, Birdbear formation - dry; Bakken; t9/90; minimal monthly production, 10K 12/19;

37147, drl, CLR, Kate ...Big Gulch, Three Forks first bench;
37148, drl, CLR, Kate ...Big Gulch, middle Bakken;
37149, drl, CLR, Kate ...Big Gulch, Three Forks first bench;
37295, drl, CLR, Kate ...Big Gulch, middle Bakken;

21204, 1,071, CLR, Kate 2-19H, Big Gulch, t1/12; cum 251K 10/19; off line 11/19; remains off line 12/19;

17577, 406, CLR, Kate 1-19H, Big Gulch, t4/10; cum 182K 10/19;


37271, conf, CLR, Kate 12-19H, middle Bakken; Cedar Coulee,
37270, conf, CLR, Kate 13-19H, middle Bakken; Cedar Coulee,
37269, conf, CLR, Kate 14-19H1, Three Forks first bench; Cedar Coulee,
37268, conf, CLR, Kate 15-19HSL, middle Bakken; Cedar Coulee,
37267, conf,

A Closer Look At The Nine Point Energy Hovde Well That Came Off The Confidential List Recently -- February 20, 2020

A closer look at the Nine Point Energy Hovde well that came off the confidential list today (see this post for the neighboring well):
  • 36284, 1,243, Nine Point Energy, Hovde E 150-100-6-7-6H, 60 stages; 10.2 million lbs; Spring Creek, t9/19; cum 128K 12/19; 
Production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201931321773209735956449511440330548
BAKKEN11-20191616722170422212319903266817234
BAKKEN10-201924274852718335683322001855213649
BAKKEN9-201930393043928250977486132388924725
BAKKEN8-20191912164117022481116566501511551
BAKKEN7-20190000000


**************************
Stir Fry Night
Notes for the Granddaughters


For background, see this note.

The wok? $5.96 at Walmart. Ramen noodles: 24 cents a pack.

Sauce: Sriracha sauce, brown sugar, garlic, and apple cider vinegar.

Closer Look At Two EOG Liberty LR Wells Recently Released From Confidential List -- February 20, 2020

The two EOG Parshall wells released from confidential status today:
  • 34361, 1,733, EOG, Liberty LR 49-1109H, 33-061-04160; 4 sections, Parshall, t8/19; cum 128K 12/19;
  • 33511, 1,769, EOG, Liberty LR 50-1109H, 33-061-04043, ICO, Parshall, t8/19; cum 174K 12/19; 
Production:
  • 34361, 70 stages, 22 million lbs; middle Bakken; spacing unit, 3840 acres; extended long lateral, drilling west to east; TD, 24,740 feet; FracFocus: fracked, 6/9/19 - 7/23/19; 14.4 million gallons of water; 84.4% water by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20193127987279455472014388136710
BAKKEN11-20192928098280885313413449125148
BAKKEN10-20193128487284986270711981109088
BAKKEN9-20192624981245437681211926110580
BAKKEN8-20191218500182674565914100137090
  • 33511, 70 stages; 21.8 million lbs; middle Bakken; spacing unit, 1920 acres; extended long lateral, drilling west to east; TD, 24,676 feet; FracFocus: fracked, 6/10/19 - 7/24/19; 13.7 million gallons of water; 84% water by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201931267282674745887398132380
BAKKEN11-20193032709326955310111566105086
BAKKEN10-201930392913926463088207791974815
BAKKEN9-20193054189538167727839913387680
BAKKEN8-20191221391211294593615302148960


Neighboring wells in same section:
  • 20038, recently back on line; small jump in production; t6/11; cum 263K 12/19; slight, probably insignificant, jump in production after coming back on line;
  • 20037, recently back on line; small jump in production; t6/11; cum 348K 12/19;
  • 18101, IA,  (one of five wells on same pad as #34361 and #33511), t12/09; cum 213K 1/19;
Activity in the immediate area, in the section to the south (pay attention to the chronologic number):
  • 19802, 1,215, EOG, Liberty LR 18-14H, Parshall, middle Bakken; producing well holding lease by production; remains on line; t10/11; cum 378K 12/19;
  • 5-well pad with rig on site:
  • 37252, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 117-1416H, Parshall, Three Forks B1,
  • 37253, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 54-1416H, Parshall, middle Bakken
  • 37254, ROS/loc, EOG, Liberty LR 55-1416H, Parshall, middle Bakken
  • 37255, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 116-1416H, Parshall, Three Forks B1,
  • 37256, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 52-1416H, Parshall, middle Bakken

Bullish Crude Oil Inventory Report -- February 20, 2020

EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:
  • a very, very bullish report;
  • crude oil inventories increased by 400,000 bbls from the previous week
  • current crude oil inventories: 442.9 million bbls
  • current crude oil inventories remain about 2% below the five-year average for this time of the year
  • refiner operating at 89.4% of operable capacity; still very low, but greater than previous week;
  • imports average 6.5 million bopd, down slightly
  • imports down 4%, comparing current four-week period with same four-week period one year ago
  • jet fuel product supplies was down 0.45 compared with same four-week period last year (coronavirus impact? zilch)
WTI: after the report -- $53.85, up about 0.67%.

Re-balancing:
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Week 58
January 3, 2020
-11.5
429.9
Week 59
January 8, 2020
1.2
431.1
Week 60
January 15, 2020
-2.5
428.5
Week 61
January 23, 2020
-0.4
428.1
Week 62
January 29, 2020
3.5
431.7
Week 63
February 5, 2020
3.4
435.0
Week 64
February 12, 2020
7.5
442.5
Week 65
February 20, 2020
0.4
442.9

*********************************
Note to Readers/Granddaughters

Wow, I'm in a great mood.

May and I share Uber-granddaughter responsibilities -- and it's a lot of driving for three granddaughters: three different schools; and, all their after-school activities which keep us busy until 10:00 p.m., Monday - Thursday. With the two of us driving, we can easily juggle the schedules.

May is in Portland, OR, for the next few weeks visiting our younger daughter and our son-in-law there. So, I'm the only driver for the granddaughters here. Their dad is often out-of-town and when he is in town does not get home early enough to help with driving; same with their mother who routinely gets home at 7:30 p.m.

The good news: I get to see the granddaughters every day and hear all those stories.

On top of that, May would prepare most evening meals. There was no expectation that I would do that, but I want to do that, and it will be a hoot.

The five all have different tastes, including vegan, near-vegan, adult-tastes; kindergarten tastes, parents' idiosyncratic rules about what can be served and what cannot be served (LOL). It's interesting to solve that Rubic's cube.

The first thing to do was figure out a routine. It's my experience that the biggest challenge with meal preparation these days is what to prepare. So, this is my plan:
  • Monday: salmon (I can prepare, marinade, on Sunday); prepare in 20 minutes on Monday;
  • Tuesday: pasta (I can prepare on Sunday); many pasta dinners can be tailored easily to different tastes;
  • Wednesday: salad day; see pictures below;
  • Thursday: stir-fry; like pasta, easy to tailor stir-fry to different tastes.
Those are the entrees; side dishes will vary, but that's easy: rice, potatoes, vegetables, fruit, dessert, etc. 

I won't prepare meals for Friday, Saturday and Sunday because the parents are home those days, and/or without school the next day, the older granddaughters have more time to prepare / cook / bake which they prefer to do anyway.

I will prepare my own meats (generally lamb) on Saturday to marinade overnight, and then grill on Sunday.

Since the older two granddaughters like to prepare their own meals and know how cook/bake, I will not "complete the final stage" of meal preparation. I will place all ingredients on the kitchen island and/or in the refrigerator with a checklist of "ingredients."

No instructions on how to prepare. That will be obvious / intuitive.

After each dinner I will ask for feedback how they want the dinner modified the following week.

So, for example, last night was "dinner salad."  Here is what their island looked like:



Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- February 20, 2020

AOC has company: Bolingbrook, IL, mayor rejects Amazon's offer to build a "massive" distribution center in Bolingbrook:
  • would add 1,500 jobs
  • $15/hour
  • mayor says $15/hour is not a living wage
    • too much traffic; would choke a nearby intersection on Interstate 55
    • building would be too tall and unsightly
  • comment: wow: the distribution centers around DFW are huge (and not unsightly; and no traffic jams)
    • an Amazon distribution center would attract more such centers by other companies
    • would result in more mom-and-pop retail in the local area
  • clearly, there is a difference in the way Texans think and some other parts of the US
  • So, Bolingbrook, IL:
    • a southwest suburb of Chicago
    • population: 75,000 -- the state's second largest village
    • number of corporate headquarters there suggest something like Plano or Frisco here in Texas, a "suburb" north of Dallas;
  • per capita income
    • Bolingbrook, IL: $23,468 (median: $67,852)
    • Plano, TX: the highest median income of a city with a population exceeding 250,000 in the nation; $84,492 
    • Frisco, TX:  $38,048 (median: $109,086
  • home value:
    • Bolingbrook, IL: $153,410 (2000)
    • Frisco, TX: $500,000 (median); 2nd fastest growing city in the US at 6.5% annually;
********************************
Strategic Planning

This is really, really cool.

I learned a lot about strategic planning while in the USAF.

Example: put down your "goal" / "outcome" that you desire at some time in the future, five years from now, ten years from now, thirty years from now. Then figure out how you get there starting from the current status.

Hold that thought.

Now, a thought experiment. Let's say your political party wants to broaden its voter base. Maybe "illegal" immigrants could be part of your voter base.

Strategic planning, first step: take out a huge flip-chart easel. Second step: a black Sharpie.

At the top, print: illegal immigrants can't vote.

At the bottom of the 24-inch by 36-inch flip chart: illegal immigrants allowed to vote/same day registration.

Now, draw about six rectangles on the flip chart between the top entry and the goal/outcome at the bottom.

At the bottom, the last rectangle that is not filled in, write: allow state driver's licenses to satisfy requirement for voter id/registration.

In the penultimate rectangle: introduce/pass legislation to allow state driver's licenses to satisfy requirement for voter id/registration.

In the next unfilled rectangle nearer the top: illegal immigrants allowed state driver's licenses.

Etc., etc., etc.

I was asked why states would want to give illegal immigrants the right to state driver's licenses. My reply: follow the money or google it. In this case, neither worked.

Fortunately Rush Limbaugh explained it. 

Post-Debate; Nevada -- Let's Not Over-Think This -- February 20, 2020

EIA weekly petroleum report: I assume the weekly EIA petroleum report will be delayed / released tomorrow, Friday, February 21, 2020, due to the holiday earlier this week. If I'm wrong, I'm sure some reader will let me know. Thank you in advance. [I was wrong; report has been released. Report summary here. The report was delayed a day; I forgot that the report normally comes out on Wednesdays. Sorry.] See comments.

Let's check the market:
  • two of the three indices up slightly;
    • NASDAQ down 7 points, but it has had a huge run; better than the other two, I believe 
    • individual ticker symbols:
      MPC: at $59.63, up 3.40%; up $1.96; paying 4%
    • AAPL: down 30 cents, or 0.05% -- which be the way is about how much the average global temperature will change over the next century, 0.05%; AAPL down due to coronavirus fears, they say;
    • ETFC (E*Trade): up 25% (this was predictable following Schwab-TD Ameritrade)
    • SRE: up slightly after being down yesterday
    • MDU, on a buying binge late, is up slightly today;
    • BKH: down slightly
    • D: up 0.7%
    • ENB: up slightly
    • EPD: up half a percent, paying almost 7%; trading at $26; target: $34;
    • OKE: up 2%; trading at $78.28, target: $76.73; paying almost 5%;
    • UNP: up slightly; trending toward its 52-week high; 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Re-posting: ETFC (E*Trade): up 25% (this was predictable following Schwab-TD Ameritrade).


Fact-Checking Breaking News -- February 20, 2020

Updates

Later, 10:41 p.m. Central Time: I spoke too soon. Market sell off. Dow down 310 points; down 1%. Reason: "a" Federal Reserve governor said this morning: don't expect any rate cuts any time soon. Buying opportunity. Panic vs FOMO. Traders on the floor, according a Fox Business News talking torso -- this has to do with coronavirus out of China. Yeah, panic. Sell-off began immediately after WHO press conference: pandemic. Reminds me of the Obama era; following every one of his speeches, it seemed, the market fell. Gold at 7-year highs. GS: probable correction; coronavirus not adequately factored in.


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.


Original Post

Fake news: we're so lucky to have the internet. We can do fact checking ourselves. Here's the top of the banner headline over at Yahoo!Finance! OMG! Stocks drifting lower! The Trump economy is tanking! Time to sell. Coronavirus will get us all.


Here's the rest of the story:
  • all three major indices reached all-time highs yesterday, although two of the three did not close at all-time highs, pulling back a little before the end of the day;
  • today, after the market hit all-time highs, we would expect some profit-taking; and, 
  • the pundits provided that narrative -- coronavirus fears / stocks drift lower:
In fact, all three major indices -- after hitting all-time record highs yesterday, are drifting higher:



**********************************
Post-Debate

This morning I got up early -- prepare for an early morning of Uber-granddaughter driving -- eager to see how "Morning Joe" would report the debate.

They were interviewing some "scholar."

The question: "Which candidate has the gravitas to be the next commander-in-chief?"

The answer, and I kid you not: "It was a great debate, nice to see come competition."

In other words: no one on stage had the gravitas to be the next commander-in-chief. That's probably not the question that MSNBC executives want their talking heads to ask.

*************************
To Answer Your Question

"Yes, senator, to answer your question, I am calling you dumb. I am not mocking you. Facts are facts."

I was aware that Senator Klobuchar -- a legend in her own mind, and said to be the smartest candidate of either party -- could not remember or did not know the name of the Mexican president.

What I did not know, from the AP:
And ongoing animosity flared between Buttigieg and Klobuchar when the former Indiana mayor slammed the three-term Minnesota senator for failing to answer questions in a recent interview about Mexican policy and forgetting the name of the Mexican president. [Did she forget or did she not know? Huge difference.]
Buttigieg noted that she’s on a committee that oversees trade issues in Mexico and she “was not able to speak to literally the first thing about the politics of the country.”
She shot back: “Are you trying to say I’m dumb? Are you mocking me here?”
Obviously, Klobuchar was not punching above her weight last night.

By the way, the Founders were smart to include a minimum age limit for president (otherwise AOC would have been on the stage) but they really, really, really dropped the ball when they failed to include a maximum age limit. That was brought home when VP Biden, although unable to name them, mentioned that he had met a dozen past Mexican presidents, including, no doubt, President General Antonio L√≥pez de Santa Anna. 

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- February 20, 2020

The coronavirus story update:
  • link here;
  • Chinese "change" way of reporting numbers (again)
  • despite that, interesting update
Fact check: Maria keeps saying the Morgan Stanley-E*Trade deal is the biggest banking deal since the banking crisis back in 2007 - 2008. You decide:
  • Schwab - TD Ameritrade deal: $26 billion
  • Morgan Stanley -  E*Trade: $13 billion
  • the reason she can say that this is the biggest bank deal since 2008: three of the four are not banks; Morgan Stanley is the only bank
  • my thoughts: splitting hairs / quibbling / headline
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Boom: I missed a couple of opportunities. Bought early (good) but sold too soon (bad): ABBV, PLUG. This one I did not miss (hallelujah!): MPC. Up 2.16% yesterday; up 4.61% in pre-market trading today. And pays 4%. And I bought is specifically as a momentum stock not too long ago; as a rule I don't invest in refineries.

Good luck to all: off the net for awhile. Granddaughter-Uber driving.

Japan: Back To The Future (Shhhh! Coal) -- Re-Posting With Graphics -- If You Have Time For Only One Story -- February 20, 2020

Back to the future: if you have time to read only one story, this is the story. Over at Watts Up With That: Japan! Back to fossil fuel (shhh! coal). This is being reported by the Midget Oligarch Reporting on News Service (MORONS):
  • MJaGA
  • a lot of graphs
  • a lot of short clips


WTI Flirting With $54 -- Thursday, February 20, 2020

Back to the future: if you have time to read only one story, this is the story. Over at Watts Up With That: Japan! Back to fossil fuel (shhh! coal). This is being reported by the Midget Oligarch Reporting on News Service (MORONS):
  • MJaGA
  • a lot of graphs
  • a lot of short clips
Shale divs: three shale producers competing to see who can grow dividends to meet investor demands: Concho Resources Inc., Diamondback Energy Inc., and Devon Energy Corp. Bloomberg via Rigzone.

Boom: US oil export story has really just started. Rigzone contributor.
Growth has been particularly impressive since the trade war with China (having a 5 percent tariff on U.S. crude) has effectively taken the world’s biggest import market away. For example, U.S. crude exports to China in November were just 62,000 b/d, compared to 231,000 b/d in 2018. Compensating, Canada, South Korea, and the UK have become the largest U.S. crude importers. Canada, for instance, imported about 170 million barrels of U.S. crude last year. This is a staggering 11-fold boom since 2010, even more notable since Canada is itself a country with rising production amid flat demand.

Fast-growing India has also become more vital for U.S. oil exporters. The world’s third largest consumer imported almost 95 million barrels of U.S. crude in 2019, a 10-fold bounce from 2017 alone. Refinery-short Mexico has dominated product purchases, taking in some 65 percent of U.S. gasoline exports and 33 percent of diesel sales. Natural gas liquids are also quickly gaining market share in the U.S. export complex, quadrupling since 2013 to ~1.9 million b/d in 2019.

Looking forward, the U.S. oil export story has really just started. China, for instance, just announced that it will half its tariff on U.S. crude to 2.5 percent and buy nearly $55 billion in U.S. energy over the next two years. This will surely put crude in the spotlight: China still has a 25 percent tariff on U.S. LNG. The prize is obvious. At 10.2 million b/d, China’s crude imports in 2019 were up 10 percent and set a record for a 17th straight year. 
Boom: oil demand growth to quintuple next year. Rigzone
  • 2020 demand: a reduction in growth demand by 793,000 bopd
  • 2021 demand: a huge demand in growth; up by 2.34 million bopd
Boom: Morgan Stanley to acquire E*Trade, in $13 billion deal. Great news for Schwab. 

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$53.992/20/202002/20/201902/20/201802/20/201702/20/2016
Active Rigs5666564038

Wells coming off the confidential list:

Thursday, February 20, 2020: 47 for the month; 154 for the quarter, 154 for the year:
  • 36691, SI/NC, Petro Harvester, FTH1 22-15 161-92B, Foothills, t--; cum 7K over 27 days;
  • 36284, 1,243, Nine Point Energy, Hovde E 150-100-6-7-6H, Spring Creek, t9/19; cum 128K 12/19;
  • 34361, 1,733, EOG, Liberty LR 49-1109H, 4 sections, Parshall, t8/19; cum 128K 12/19; see this note;
  • 33511, 1,769, EOG, Liberty LR 50-1109H, ICO, Parshall, t8/19; cum 174K 12/19; see this note;
RBN Energy: NuStar reaping benefits of Permian gathering and export investments.
The fortunes of U.S. midstream companies in 2020 and beyond will be largely determined by how shrewdly they invested during the frenzied infrastructure build-out of the past few years. One of the most interesting case studies is San Antonio-based NuStar Energy, a master limited partnership born in 2001 to hold refiner Valero Energy’s midstream assets and spun off as a separate entity in 2007.
In May 2017, as the industry was still recovering from the late 2014 plunge in crude oil prices, the MLP made a major play to capture growing Permian production through the ~$1.5 billion acquisition of Navigator Energy, which owned a crude oil gathering, transportation, and terminaling system in the Midland Basin. The purchase was widely panned as overpriced by analysts and investors, and NuStar’s unit price plummeted by 60%. But by 2019, the company’s Permian acquisition — and soaring exports from its Corpus Christi terminal — drove big year-on-year gains in NuStar’s fourth-quarter 2019 operating income and EBITDA. Today, we preview our new Spotlight report on NuStar.