Sunday, February 16, 2020

CLR's Hereford Federal 8-20H2, Elm Tree, Is Finally Producing -- February 16, 2020

I've been following this well for quite some time. Finally, it is in production.

From an older note:
September 12, 2019:
  • #32354, 174, CLR, Hereford Federal 8-20H2, Elm Tree, t8/19; cum 0; has never produced anything; no frack data; API: 33-053-07430; FracFocus says fracked 3/28/17 - 4/15/17; huge frack with 12.6 million gallons of water; 88% water by mass; 8/19; still confidential, but production being posted; wow! 8/19 --producing! still confidential, 11/19;
Update: fracked back in early 2017; no production all these months; finally producing as of August, 2019:
  • #32354, 174, CLR, Hereford Federal 8-20H2, Elm Tree, t8/19; cum 11K 12/19;
Full production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2019312046203056042421230660
BAKKEN11-2019302268223525681566150822
BAKKEN10-20193118381835329021351906165
BAKKEN9-20192012591297344321261710317
BAKKEN8-20192535593505927056575041472
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000

From May, 2017, to July, 2019, no production. 

Simply Some Housekeeping -- February 16, 2020

November 13, 2019: when will these XTO wells be operated by Newfield according to scout tickets?  #21706, #22390, #17832; 10/19; noted January 1, 2020, that these are now Newfield wells;

Update: CLR Vardon Well -- February 16, 2020

Many wells near a CLR Vardon well have been recently fracked. This well has been off line for quite some time. I'm not sure how I missed this well and/or did not include it in my list of "wells of interest." It will be added to that list.

Full production profile for this well is at this post.

The well:
  • 20354, 1,200, CLR, Vardon 1-14H, Siverston, F, 7/11; cum 370K 12/19;
Observations:
  • a very, very old well; 
  • drilled back in 2011;
  • best production after initial frack: 15,000 bbls oil in July, 2011;
  • then, production jumped to 33,000 bbls oil in May, 2018, when it was seven years old;
  • then, being off line for a year or so, is now back in production, looking pretty good, and flowing; no pump, according to the scout ticket;
Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201931666770605075110221210591
BAKKEN11-2019515381145107925223242133
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-201951333114488724547761639
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-2019002110000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-2018002330000
BAKKEN10-2018311224011976731020562121048052
BAKKEN9-201829123291236674082618325092721

Full production here.


An Old Slawson Well Appears To Be Coming On Strong -- February 16, 2020

Recently several horizontals "cut across" this Slawson well. I've been waiting to see how it might do once it comes back on line. It looks like it is coming back on line. Note: it is a single section / 640-acre spaced well. 

Observations:
  • this well was drilled back in 2011, now going on ten years old;
  • it's never been a particularly good well -- but it was a short lateral; drilled using information, completion strategies that are now ten years old; by that criteria, it's a pretty good well; 
  • the best this well ever did was 20,000 bbls in one month shortly after it was completed back in 2011;
  • it was taken off line while neighboring wells were fracked;
  • over seven days in December, 2019,  after coming back on line, this well produced 6,471 bbls which extrapolates to 28,000 bbls over 30 days, well above its previous best month of 20,000 bbls/month;
  • this area if very, very active, with many producing wells, but there is much more work to be done in this area;
The well:
  • 19404, 1,388, Slawson, Jackknife Federal 1-27H, Van Hook, t3/11; cum 344K 12/19;

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- Enerplus Cirrus -- Eagle Nest -- February 16, 2020

This continues an on-going theme for the blog (one of many on-going themes): every Bakken well tells a story.

See Enerplus' "Cloudy Pad."

The well:
  • 24163, 759, ERF, Cirrus 149-94-33D-28H, Eagle Nest, 28 stages; 6.5 million lbs, t4/13; cum 266K 8/19;
This might be a fairly non-descript well. I don't know. I haven't taken a very close look. But en route to looking up something else, I noted this:

Production, recent:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201916275824432193413612202867
BAKKEN11-201976791083897134513240
BAKKEN10-2019319567948779301435090285218
BAKKEN9-20192912689127231041919034124526483
BAKKEN8-2019317797732271871169650046599
BAKKEN7-201931144014151077216042066
BAKKEN6-2019239659767441447931289
BAKKEN5-2019311589173499723831330964

A jump in production from 1,500 bbls oil / month to 13,000 bbls oil / month, and the well is seven years old. Hubbert says this isn't supposed to happen. LOL. It's happening all the time in the Bakken.

There are seven other wells  on this 9-well pad that are DUCs (SI/NC).

Let's see what FracFocus has to say.

Randomly,
  • 35595, SI/NC, Enerplus, Lenticular 149-94-33C-28H, 33-025-03598, Eagle Nest; no data suggesting a frack yet;
  • 35600, no frack data;
  • 35594, no frack data; that's all I'm going to check;
It looks like they have not been fracked yet, or FracFocus doesn't have the data yet.

Let's look at the map where #24163 is located.

Well, well,well, what do we have here? Coming from the north, drilling to the south, and parallel to #24163, we have this well, a section line well operated by WPX:
  • 36016, 2,951, WPX, Bison 27-34HEL, 33-053-0894, Eagle Nest, t10/19; cum 101K, but according to FracFocus, fracked 7/28/19 to 8/6/19;
Compare the jump in production in the spreadsheet above (8/19, and particularly 9/19) with the dates of the neighboring frack (by a different operator), 7/19 - 8/19.

The Bakken never ceases to amaze me.

By the way, here's the production profile for that WPX Bison well, #36016:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20192724999249593164730174210926041
BAKKEN11-20193033664336742680742075380890
BAKKEN10-201931426294245125554514532464821919
BAKKEN9-20190000000


Beggar Groove, LTJ Experience

Enerplus Is Very Active In Mandaree With Two Rigs Completing Its Stringed Instrument Pad, And Its Precipitation Pad -- February 16, 2020

Enerplus is drilling its "Stringed Instrument" pad sited in Squaw Creek, sited in section 3-149-94, running west to east, into Mandaree oil field.

The pad:
  • 37029, drl, Enerplus, Fiddle 149-94-02C-01H-TF, Mandaree,
  • 37028, ros, Enerplus, Mandolin 149-94-02C-01H, Mandaree,
  • 37027, drl, Enerplus, Cello 149-94-02C-01H-TF, Mandaree,
  • 37026, drl, Enerplus, Guitar 149-94-02C-01H, Mandaree,
  • 37025, drl, Enerplus, Harp 149-94-02C-01H-TF, Mandaree,
  • 37024, drl, Enerplus, Ukulele 149-94-02C-01H, Mandaree,
In addition to this pad, there is another 2-well pad in the same drilling unit, but sited in section 2-149-94:
  • 24962, 1,957, Enerpluse, Grassy Knoll 2-11H, Mandaree, t11/15; cum 401K 1/20;
  • 24963, 1,936, Enerplus, Banjo 149-94-02B-01H TF, Mandaree, t11/15; cum 405K 1/20;
These wells all run west to east.

At the same time, a bit to the east, Enerplus is also drilling its "Precipitation Pad" with a rig on site for #35800.

Enerplus' "Storm Pad" has been completed.

The "Precipitation Pad" and "Storm Pad" wells are being drilled east to west.

Most other wells in this area are being drilled north/south.

Corrosion of the Masses, The Grassy Knoll

The WPX Good Voice/Benson Wells In Spotted Horn Have Been Updated -- February 16, 2020

Link here.

The most recent well was completed in late 2018/early 2019, and tested 1/19.

Following that completion, this well reported a significant jump in production. Note the small IP, and then note that this well will soon hit 500K; about six years old; jump in production:
  • 27068, 502, WPX, Good Voice 34-27HD, Squaw Creek, t11/14; cum 464K 12/19; off line while neighboring wells fracked; off line for about five months; now back on line as of 1/19;
Production during period of interest:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201931644264232066874259181764
BAKKEN11-201930634664791699861310826358
BAKKEN10-201931505350454923685712754539
BAKKEN9-201930487850013731661912764329
BAKKEN8-201931427939704133580732051633
BAKKEN7-2019181189118510721494629421
BAKKEN6-20192017141728132621551439184
BAKKEN5-201931393439143208494428751224
BAKKEN4-201930464146342711583428302106
BAKKEN3-2019292840281534713399127870
BAKKEN2-2019282313230412211282107430
BAKKEN1-2019111091108546348130870
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000

Off line from late 8/18 to late 1/19.

BAKKEN7-20181211401184351448642010
BAKKEN6-2018303069305579711497108170
BAKKEN5-201831341534928411015394200
BAKKEN4-20183033603278958662259080
BAKKEN3-2018313822389087111133103570

The CLR Honolulu Wells, Indian Hill, Across The River, South Of Williston -- February 16, 2020

The Honolulu wells have been updated.

Based on the names of the wells, the three most recent Honolulu wells completed were middle Bakken wells. The earlier three wells were a middle Bakken well; a Three Forks first bench well; and, a Three Forks second bench well. I have not looked at the file reports to confirm.

The three older wells were drilled from the south to the north; the three newer wells were drilled from the north to the south.

It appears that the older middle Bakken well had a small jump in production after the newer middle Bakken wells were completed.

The well:
  • 20947, 701, CLR, Honolulu 1-22H, Indian Hill, t9/11; cum 214K 12/19; stripper well status, January 29, 2018; 30 stages; 2.9 million lbs;
Recent production;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2019291048113720908614830
BAKKEN11-20191884394712398005610
BAKKEN10-20193115511363252413739540
BAKKEN9-201930169918582879150111010
BAKKEN8-201931240925153390206516460
BAKKEN7-2019312650274244112157171230
BAKKEN6-201912633224213355938036
BAKKEN5-2019152413365503371430
BAKKEN4-2019305024615047323270
BAKKEN3-2019315456085276101910
BAKKEN2-2019285034755035281500

This Week In Pictures -- Powerline -- February 16, 2020

My favorite:


It takes a village: no matter how many times YouTube removes this video, folks find a way to re-post it:

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- February 16, 2020

First things first: Air Force One has landed at Daytona. NASCAR race starts at 1:30 p.m. CT. Rumor: pace car -- Trump-Pence 2020 Camaro -- Chevrolet, making America great. How big is this. The Daytona 500 today is sold out. But look at this. In three decades of watching NASCAR, I've never seen a full-page "ad" in The Washington Post "advertising the Daytona race


The Daytona race: I've never seen so many Mike Bloomberg ads on Fox. But no matter how much he spends on ads, the visual will be Trump:
  • Air Force One fly-over and landing;
  • Trump-Pence 2020 pace car;
  • Trump: first time a sitting president is a NASCAR grand marshall

 ********************************
Back to the Bakken 

MDU: buys another company. Link here.
  • Oldcastle Infrastructure Spokane, the Washington-based prestressed-construction business previously owned by Oldcastle Infrastructure
  • the Spokane operation produces precast and prestressed concrete components for projects throughout Washington, Idaho and Oregon. It has become part of Knife River Corporation, the construction materials subsidiary of MDU Resources. The acquisition complements and expands Knife River's existing precast/prestressed operations in Oregon, Alaska and the growing Pacific Northwest.
********************************
Non-Bakken Items

Ride-hailing: Uber, Lyft killed "Super Shuttle" airport service across the USA. That was just the start. From the weekend edition of "Exchange," The Wall Street Journal: "The Ride-Hail Utopia Got Stock in Traffic."

Predicted on the blog many, many years ago that this would happen.

From the full-page article that covers the front page of "Exchange":
  • 2.2 mph: average slowdown in speed in downtown San Francisco due to ride-hailing apps
  • 77%: share of ride-hailing trips that are requested for one party only, rather than pooled, Chicago
  • 40%: the share of time ride-hailing cars in California and NYC cruise without passengers
  • 309%: the rise in ride-hailing trips starting or ending in down Chicago between 2015 and 2018
Remember this prediction five years ago:
"If every car in San Francisco was Ubered there would be no traffic," Travis Kalanick.
What a doofus. I said that back then -- five years ago -- and voila (or as the French say, voilĂ ).

Second things second: Another doofus: Amy Klobuchar, this week, was unable to name the president of Mexico. After that debacle, she doubled down, declaring that English should not be the national language of the US. Has she been to Miami?

*********************************
Lego Friends

I won't see Sophia today. She is with her mom at "Six Flags" just a couple of miles south of us.

Re-Posting A Warren Buffett Note -- February 16, 2020

Re-posting:
Click Bait
IBD: Warren Buffett Sells Apple, Buys Kroger 

This was the lede over at Investor's Business Daily, link here.
Warren Buffett bought shares of Kroger (KR) and Biogen (BIIB) in the fourth quarter, but the investing legend further pared his Apple (AAPL) and Wells Fargo (WFC) stakes, Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKB) latest quarterly 13F filings with the SEC showed. 
This was the internet "tease" that brought me there:


Wow, what a joke. Passes for news these days.

Prior to the sale, on a dollar basis, AAPL was Berkshire Hathaway's biggest holding, at 30% of the entire portfolio. In the last quarter, BRK sold 1.4% of his shares in AAPL, dropping from 248,838,679 to 245,155,566 AAPL shares (3,683,113 shares). If he sold on December 2, 2019, shares were selling at $264. AAPL shares are currently fetching $325.

Paper loss: $225 million or close to a quarter billion dollars.

Warren's move certainly seems to be ridiculous on the surface, but we don't know the particulars. But Investor's Business Daily headlining "Buffett pared his Apple stakes" certainly seems a bit over the top.

My hunch: there was a long, long discussion between Munger, Buffett, et al, about what to do with a stock (AAPL) that was now 30% of the entire Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. "Traditional rules" would have argued for a much bigger cut, maybe as much as a 50% cut in the portfolio's AAPL holdings, but that would have been beyond the pale.

A bit of irony: Warren Buffett sells AAPL but then buys Kroger, which also sells apples. Along with oranges and cauliflower.

***********************************
Williston Library

I remember spending a lot of time in this library when I growing up. What a great Williston treasure back in the 50s and 60s.

Key Data Points From The December, 2019, Oil And Natural Gas Production, North Dakota (Bakken) -- February 16, 2020

Key data points from the December, 2019, production data coming out of North Dakota:
  • after the final figures came in, North Dakota set a new all-time production record in November, 2019;
    • crude oil: 1,519,037 (but just barely; beating the previous all-time high, the previous month, by 1,101 bopd)
    • natural gas: 3,165,585 MCF/day
    • boe: 1,985,573 boepd
  • note: these were all preliminary figures; final figures will be released in the March, 2020, Director's Cut;
  • crude oil production in December was one of the bigger month-over-month decreases in quite some time; this was all about a) managing their assets; and, b) taking wells off line for operational reasons
    • the number of producing wells dropped below 16,000, the first time that has happened since September, 2019, when it hit another all-time high at 16,115 producing wells; current all-time  high for producing wells: October, 2019, at 16,169 producing wells;
      • price of oil was trending down; coronavirus scare was crushing demand
      • continued pad drilling and new fracking
    • number of wells coming off-line month-over-month (December/November) was 233 or an increase of 8.8%
    • there are now 2,878 wells off line
    • the actual number of wells off line any given month remains in a narrow range, probably about 2,500
    • it appears, in raw numbers, September, 2019, hit an all-time high for the number of wells off line: 3,020; September, 2019, was a record-setting month for rain; it was a "disaster" in the oil patch; production fells 2.5% month-over-month;
    • this is about twice as many as the number of new wells that will be drilled in 2020
    • in fact, there were 111 completions in December, 2019, which is about average for the Bakken, but it means a lot of neighboring wells are taken off-line during fracking operations
  • takeaway capacity is not an issue
  • gas capture is trending, albeit slowly, in the right direction
  • about a month ago there were any number of stories in the mainstream media about E&P companies, feeling the stress of low oil prices, were slowing their new drilling and focusing on completing DUCs; 
    • I posted at the time that this was most likely (if accurate) occurring in the Permian
    • anecdotally I was not seeing it in the Bakken
    • and there, it was, in the December data, the number of DUCs in the Bakken increased by 39 wells, from 919 to 958 (preliminary)
    • 958 is a high number but not the highest; the record was 985 in May, 2019;
    • I haven't done the percentages; but on a raw number basis, the number of DUCs is increasing in the Bakken, not decreasing
    • supports my "thesis" that when the mainstream media talks about trends in US shale, they are focusing on the Permian, not the Bakken