Thursday, February 13, 2020

Canada: Closed For Business -- February 13, 2020

Link here.

The story:
Canadian National (CN) said today it has begun to shut down its eastern Canadian rail network following delays caused by protests against a pipeline that have spread across three provinces.
More than 400 trains have already been cancelled this week. The situation has worsened since CN said on 11 February that blockades in Belleville, Ontario, had forced it to curtail some deliveries.
The protests are unrelated to CN. First Nations groups and others have used blockades to protest a Coastal GasLink pipeline under construction in British Columbia.

"A progressive shutdown of our eastern Canadian operations is the responsible approach to take for the safety of our employees and the protestors," CN chief executive Jean-Jacques Ruest said today

The closure ends all transcontinental train movements, including some that are hauling propane, coal, crude, potash and pellets.

CN is taking steps to ensure it is well set up for recovery, "which will come when the illegal blockades end completely," Ruest said.

CN sought and obtained court orders to end the blockades. The blockades have ended in Manitoba and an end is imminent in British Columbia, the railroad said. But the orders of an Ontario court have yet to be enforced and continue to be ignored, CN said.
Remind me, what province is the capital of Canada in?

Can you imagine if all -- repeat, all -- US transcontinental rail traffic was discontinued -- even for a day?

Canada is nuts. Simply nuts.

Top Story Of The Month? -- February 13, 2020

A reader sent me this. I never, never, never would have seen it otherwise.

Headline:


Link.

The lede:
A chemical waste landfill near the Columbia Gorge has been accepting thousands of tons of radioactive fracking waste from North Dakota in violation of Oregon regulations.
Oregon Department of Energy officials issued a “notice of violation” to Chemical Waste Management’s landfill near the small town of Arlington on Thursday for accepting a total of 2 million pounds of Bakken oil field waste that was delivered by rail in 2016, 2017 and 2019.
On average, the waste registered radium at 140 picocuries per gram, according to Jeff Burright, a state nuclear waste remediation specialist. The state’s maximum level for waste stored at Arlington is 5 picocuries per gram, he said.
Radioactivity in a common retail six-banana bunch: the average radiologic profile of bananas is 3,520 picocuries per kg, or roughly 520 picocuries per 150g banana, or roughly 3,000 picocuries in a retail "bunch" of bananas. 

3,520 picocuries per 1000 grams = 3.52 picocuries per gram. 

The EPA "talking paper" here will sort it all out. 

We talked about this, maybe, ten years ago o the blog. Search banana on the blog. 

Something tells me this is the end of that.  

**************************************
The Trembler



The Trembler, Duane Eddy

In another life, long ago and far away, I had a woman friend -- looking back now -- she would have loved dancing to Duane Eddy's "Honky Tonk." Folks may be more familiar with "the original."

Am I wrong, or am I wrong? What dance would work best for this music? Line dancing. That's my guess.  

The Madison -- Dance

The Chinese Must Be Using The DNC-Iowa App To Tabulate Coronavirus Deaths -- February 13, 2020

This page will not be updated.

I have finally decided that I will follow "coronavirus" here.

February 13, 2020, link:

In 50+ years of studying biology, medicine, and statistics, I have never, never seen an epidemiological graph that looked like this. The only explanation: the Chinese are using the DNC-Iowa app to tabulate deaths.


From a post earlier today --
Dumb and dumber:
  • Then: China lies about how bad the coronavirus is. 
  • Now: China tells us how bad the coronavirus is.
I did not hear this mentioned on any network today -- that the number of deaths -- day-over-day -- decreased by 51%, link here:


Closer Look At Two Slawson DUCs Just Reported -- February 13, 2020

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 36524, n/d, Slawson, Challenger Federal 9-29-32H, Big Bend, F, t--; cum 13K over 9 days; extrapolates to 42K over 30 days;
  • 30177, n/d, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, F, t--; cum 10K over 6 days; extrapolates to 48K over 30 days;
Location:
  • 36524: NENE 29-151-92, middle Bakken;
  • 30177: NENE 29-151-77, Three Forks; 
Section 29-151-92, drilling from the north, going south:
  • 33901, conf, Slawson, Mole 1 SLH, Big Bend,
  • 33742, 520, Slawson, Challenger Federal 4-29-32TFH, Big Bend, t11/17; cum 121K 11/19; offline 11/19; remains off line 12/19;
  • 33902, conf, Slawson, Mole 4-20TFH, Big Bend,
  • 23917, 1147, Slawson, Silencer 2-29H, Big Bend, t11/17; cum 220K 11/19;
  • 33903, conf, Slawson, Mole 2-20H, Big Bend,
  • 33904, conf, Slawson, Mole 5-20TFH, Big Bend,

  • 27592, 780, Slawson, Challenger Federal 5-29-32TFH, Big Bend, t8/14; cum 338K 11/19; offline 11/19; remains off line 12/19;
  • 27593, 519, Slawson, Challenger Federal 3-29-32H, Big Bend, t9/14; cum 320K 11/19; offline 11/19; remains off line 12/19;
  • 27594, 352, Slawson, Challenger Federal 6-29-32TFH, Big Bend, t9/14; cum 205K 11/19; offline 11/19; remains off line 12/19;

  • 35699, SI/NC, Slawson, Mole 6-20TFH, Big Bend, 4K over 7 days;
  • 30179, n/d, Slawson, Challenger Federal 7-29-32TFH, Big Bend, three days of production;
  • 35698, SI/NC, Slawson, Mole 7-20TFH, Big Bend, --
  • 30177, n/d, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, 10K over 6 days;


Section 29-151-92, drilling from the south, going north into section 20:
  • 27675, IA/464, Slawson, Mole 3-20H, Big Bend, t8/14; cum 243K 8/19; intermittent production since 8/19; remains off line 12/19;
  • 36524, n/d, Slawson, Challenger Federal 9-29-32H, Big Bend, t--; 13K over 9 days;
  • 30178, n/d, Slawson, Diamondback 1 SLH, Big Bend, t--; 42 bbls over one day;
Section line well from the south, going north:
  • 31476, 2,613, MRO, Moline 14-32H, Big Bend, t8/18; cum 330K 12/19;
The graphic:

Nelson Federal Wells -- Recent Drop In Production -- Staggering -- But It's Only Temporary -- February 13, 2020

Mom-and-pop mineral owners with stakes in XTO's Nelson Federal wells probably noted a huge, huge decrease in their royalty checks reflecting autumn, 2019, data. This should be temporary; several Nelson Federal wells in section 6-152-94 were recently fracked; many wells in the area were taken off line, but they are now returning to production. The Nelson Federal wells in this section, and recent production.

The wells:
  • 28257, 2,059, XTO, Nelson Federal 41X-5D, Antelope-Sanish, t10/15; cum 293K 12/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH12-201931577157327273669066340
SANISH11-20193908045813510427
SANISH10-20190000000
SANISH9-201900550000
SANISH8-201928447944981903547254590
SANISH7-201931489850022245541753990
SANISH6-201926464047542089471647060
  • 28256, 1,804, XTO, Nelson Federal 41X-5H, Antelope-Sanish, t10/15; cum 208K 12/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH12-201925391938864878432842920
SANISH11-20190000000
SANISH10-20190000000
SANISH9-201900370000
SANISH8-201928299630053778140614030
SANISH7-201931304631164044118411800
SANISH6-201930304129955742156415610
  • 18435, 2,376, XTO, Nelson Federal 41X-5G, Antelope-Sanish, t10/15; cum 325K 12/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH12-201931438145694154544053940
SANISH11-20191620851901193420401567408
SANISH10-2019812491279833140213880
SANISH9-201930408540713286486348480
SANISH8-201931459346004366377037610
SANISH7-201931425543524408270226930
SANISH6-201930421541595369298429770
SANISH5-2019141400131226339279240
SANISH4-201922272104772142130
SANISH3-201900450000
SANISH2-20190000000
SANISH1-20190000000
SANISH12-201816120000
  • 28255, 2,513, XTO, Nelson Federal 41X-5C, Antelope-Sanish, t10/15; cum 298K 12/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH12-201931361939913098501249700
SANISH11-20192737403337273138282942765
SANISH10-201900460000
SANISH9-201926264626432217373437220
SANISH8-201931349735082958285928520
SANISH7-201931359737043478279127820
SANISH6-201930420141144503318331760
  • 34488, 1,408, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5C, Antelope-Sanish, t3/19; cum 182K 12/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH12-20192373567474406911397113010
SANISH11-201991667161555618011384360
SANISH10-20194387838941490572956710
SANISH9-20191183068586346818788187290
SANISH8-20193134274341431361565958657990
SANISH7-2019201948820364811132022319150
SANISH6-20193030537321501306050376502650
SANISH5-20193137252369011783254069539130
SANISH4-20193032604315701743243505385804742
SANISH3-201996644524711167920770312054
  • 34487, 857, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5FXG2, Antelope-Sanish, t5/19; cum 101K 12/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH12-201923574556965529794278750
SANISH11-2019001800000
SANISH10-20199543555693030822581410
SANISH9-20192618162180391078027290272050
SANISH8-20192315452154841016824271242130
SANISH7-20192014817154521037921428213560
SANISH6-20193022392229001589932488324170
SANISH5-20191918285169191277423491234230
SANISH4-2019001580000
SANISH3-201937505924262174801748
  • 34486, 1,244, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5BXC, Antelope-Sanish, t3/19; cum 170K 12/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH12-2019231052810439418216483163440
SANISH11-2019004390000
SANISH10-2019211328813185392023592233520
SANISH9-2019301943119314556034080339730
SANISH8-2019311766717692575726629265650
SANISH7-2019201623016946536225017249330
SANISH6-2019302506426231799638414383300
SANISH5-2019312848228852994938992388800
SANISH4-20193033490321921180544696383646150
SANISH3-20199570445054976790967521040
  • 34485, A, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5F, 40 stages; 5 million lbs; Antelope-Sanish, t1/19; cum 75K 12/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH12-201923684367854996949194110
SANISH11-2019001800000
SANISH10-201912545155583640908689940
SANISH9-2019241655316447983124515244380
SANISH8-2019241465014615970822489224350
SANISH7-201920973210244679913284132390
SANISH6-20193017193168911208724758247040
SANISH5-201910476444083334656765480
SANISH4-201900700000
SANISH3-2019133426406040604
  • 28183, 2,459, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5B, Antelope-Sanish, t11/15; cum 342K 12/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH12-2019004040000
SANISH11-20192637493511182143013305860
SANISH10-201931503149122795625661920
SANISH9-201930269426521851338033690
SANISH8-2019313874333952982970
SANISH7-201931339335632483454045250
SANISH6-201930577158694674794179240
  • 28185, 2,712, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5E, Antelope-Sanish, t11/15; cum 275K 12/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH12-20190000000
SANISH11-20190000000
SANISH10-201900260000
SANISH9-201916152115681417158615810
SANISH8-201931586658805740674367270
SANISH7-201931577658686062634663250
SANISH6-201930466746706740576557520
  • 28184, 2,171, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5A, Antelope-Sanish, t11/15; cum 279K 12/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH12-201927375343781034409540600
SANISH11-201930609655971661608246731216
SANISH10-201931478347051655493248820
SANISH9-201930461845841690499149750
SANISH8-201931373937481892573857240
SANISH7-201931367237401778425742430
SANISH6-201930320932141535326132540


Natural Gas Fill Rate -- February 13, 2020

Link here.


Another Day With No New Permits -- February 13, 2020

Congrats!! Lynn Helms gets a shout-out from the EIA. Link here.
North Dakota provides regulatory guidance to reduce natural gas flaring.

Natural gas production in North Dakota reached 3.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in November 2019, a more than ten-fold increase compared with January 2010 levels.
In the first 11 months of 2019, North Dakota flared about 20% of its natural gas production, or 0.56 Bcf/d, which is 40% higher than in 2018. Increases in natural gas production are primarily related to associated gas produced from oil wells in the Bakken formation. Flaring refers to combusting natural gas in the atmosphere instead of capturing and processing natural gas in a processing plant.
North Dakota implemented natural gas capture goals in 2014 to limit the amount of natural gas flared into the atmosphere. Natural gas processing capacity has increased alongside crude oil production but has lagged behind the growth in associated natural gas production. The state natural gas capture target—currently at 88% and set to increase to 91% in November 2020—has not been met in every month since March 2018. In the most recent data month, November 2019, only 83% of natural gas produced in North Dakota was captured.
Insufficient natural gas processing capacity has placed constraints on crude oil production, and oil producers are looking for ways to comply with natural gas capture targets.
According to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, natural gas processing plant capacity additions in 2019 increased total capacity by 0.71 Bcf/d to reach 3.1 Bcf/d. They expect an additional 0.9 Bcf/d of natural gas processing to enter service during 2020 and 2021. These additions will support crude oil production growth, but the new capacity may fill up faster than anticipated.
On November 15, 2019, the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC), the regulatory entity that oversees the state’s flaring reduction rules, held a hearing to consider both how to raise natural gas capture levels using alternative natural gas capture strategies and how to provide regulatory clarity in natural gas gathering agreements. According to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, about three-fourths of flaring is associated with oil wells connected to natural gas gathering pipelines.
Much, much more at the link.
Active rigs:

$51.602/13/202002/13/201902/13/201802/13/201702/13/2016
Active Rigs5563583641

No new permits.

permits renewed: pending.

permits canceled: pending.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed (see this note):
  • 36524, n/d, Slawson, Challenger Federal 9-29-32H, Big Bend, F, t--; cum 13K over 9 days; extrapolates to 42K over 30 days;
  • 30177, n/d, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, F, t--; cum 10K over 6 days; extrapolates to 48K over 30 days;

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- February 13, 2020

This will not make tonight's ABC evening news with David Muir, from the international agency:


The story:
The United States led the world in tackling CO2 emissions last year while combining that singular success with solid economic growth.
It has also been confirmed while the U.S. was hitting its climate goals, at the same time “80 percent of the increase in CO2 emissions came from Asia and that China and India both contributed significantly” to global increases.
The story continues:
“The United States saw the largest decline in energy-related CO2 emissions in 2019 on a country basis – a fall of 140 Mt, or 2.9%, to 4.8 Gt,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported Tuesday. “US emissions are now down almost 1 Gt from their peak in the year 2000, the largest absolute decline by any country over that period.”
“A 15% reduction in the use of coal for power generation underpinned the decline in overall US emissions in 2019,” the IEA continued.
“Coal-fired power plants faced even stronger competition from natural gas-fired generation, with benchmark gas prices an average of 45% lower than 2018 levels. As a result, gas increased its share in electricity generation to a record high of 37%. Overall electricity demand declined because demand for air-conditioning and heating was lower as a result of milder summer and winter weather.”
U.S. success in leading the world in tackling CO2 emissions was not lost on those who support its current efforts.

Politics -- Nothing About The Bakken -- February 13, 2020

This reminds me of the apocryphal story about NASA's multi-billion-dollar project to develop a writing utensil that could be used in space, when the Russians already had a 25-cent version.

Whatever.

Team Trump has sent the Iowa DNC a prototype of the voting app the RNC will use in South Carolina to tally votes. Team Trump sent them the "blue" version for obvious reasons. The "red" version, already being used in the field, is designed for the GOP.


From The WSJ today, "The Incompetence Party."

Or, from #NotTheRealBernieSanders: "The incontinence party," dripping with hatred for the US.

************************************
Prep For Valentines Day

Lamb.

One of our favorite home dinners.

Marinate overnight.

Grill tomorrow.

Lamb chops from Costco, $6.99 / lb. Are there eleven pork chops in that package; I forgot to count, but that's about what it looks like. About 1.5 inches thick. The math suggests each lamb chop is about 4.75 ounces.

Rosemary - thyme - olive oil - balsamic vinegar - salt - pepper - shallot - garlic marinade:


Marinate.

I used to put the lamb in a Pyrex container to sit in a refrigerator overnight. This time, for the first time, it dawned on me, that it made more sense to use a zip lock back for a number of reasons.


Another "Beat" On The Jobless Claims Report -- Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- February 13, 2020

Mood: great mood today. I've never watched so much cable network news -- MSNBC is particularly fascinating. Laura Ingraham on Fox News late last night, particularly "fun." We all can't wait for AG Barr to testify.

Jobless report, link here:
  • prior: 202K
  • revised: 203K
  • consensus: 211K
  • actual: 205K  
Coronavirus: lots of jobs coming back to the US.

Coronavirus: Japan says it won't affect summer Olympics. Two minutes later -- report that first coronavirus-associated death in Japan reported. That headline about the summer Olympics? Never mind.

Reminder: dividend announcements here.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

Thursday, February 13, 2020: 37 for the month; 144 for the quarter, 144 for the year:

  • 36680, drl, XTO, Mariner 13X-36POW-H, Bear Creek; see this note
From the file report:
  • Nabors B12
    • vertical: 10,261 feet
    • vertical depth: 10,311 feet
    • horizontal: do the math
    • TD: 15,797 feet designed; actual: 15,688' MD
  • the well
    • 20 miles north of Killdeer in Dunn County
    • designed to drill southeast at a heading of 106.49° from SWSW section 36-148-96
    • the third of three laterals completed on this pad
    • will be one of two production observation wells on this pad
  • drilling:
    • the 1,221'-sidetrack and curve was drilled in 33 hours with a single BHA
    • landed approx 17' below the upper Bakken shale
    • the lateral drilled using a single BHA
  • lithology described:
    • the Spearfish formation
    • the Broom Creek formation (Permian): 7,736' MD; + for hydrocarbons; sandstone;
    • the Amsden formation (Pennsylvanian): 8,033' MD; siltstone and dolomite; low gas units;
    • the Mission Canyon formation (Mississippian); 9,608' MD; 
    • the Bakken: 
      • the upper Bakken shale member (Mississippian): 11,032' MD;
      • the middle Bakken shale member (Mississippian-Devonian): 11,049' MD;
      • the lower Bakken shale member (Devonian): 11,089' MD
    • the Three Forks formation
      • first bench (Devonian): 11,113' MD;
      • second bench (Devonian): 11,150' MD;
      • third bench (Devonian) 11,209' MD;
    • Duperow formation: 11,435' MD;
  • lateral: 
    • drilled in 4 days;
    • exposed 4,358' of uncased hole, entirely with the Mississippian-Devonian middle Bakken member;
    • gas shows, 226 - 2,007 units;
    • target interval: 17' thick; beginning 10' below the upper Bakken shale; base: 10' above the lower Bakken shale;
    • 11079-11059 = the target was a 20' seam
  • the later is being equipped with a special fiber optic liner to monitor fracking communication with the Mariner wells
No animals were harmed during this operation, to the best of my knowledge.

Elon Musk's "Boring Company" was not consulted to the best of my knowledge during this operation.