Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- February 11, 2020

Weekly crude oil storage data, API:
  • estimate: a 2.987-million-bbl build (false precision)
  • actual: a 6-million-bbl build;
  • WTI: closed up 37 cents; closing at $49.94
Coronavirus/North Dakota: The Bismarck Tribune reports three people in North Dakota are being monitored for symptoms of coronavirus; individuals recently arrived from China. The individuals are asymptomatic. Unless I missed it, The Bismarck Tribune did not say "where in China" these folks had visited. But the state's health department did say, according to The Bismarck Tribune, that folks from North Dakota could reduce their risk of infection by not going to China. Okay.

Reminder: coronavirus statistics here. This will be incredibly interesting to follow. Coronavirus cases in the US by state, tracked here.

Snowflakes: all four prosecutors (Mueller prosecutors, by the way) withdraw from Roger Stone case. The case is over; they've signed their recommendation; their boss overrides them; and they resign.Their job was over; they resign after their job ends?

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Coronavirus

I've been waiting for this "number" all day. I thought we would see it this week, perhaps even today, and we did. We saw it today.

This is the first day since the virus reached its stride in which the number of deaths decreased day-over-day. The number of deaths -- 97 -- reported today is 10% less than yesterday.

Link here.

This is huge. It's simply a snapshot in time, but it's a nice snapshot.


Add this data point with other data points, and one might be able to find some optimism. The most important data point? President Xi sends Chinese workers back to work.

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The Literature Page

Anaïs Nin: A Biography, Deirdre Bair, c. 1995.

Not so many years ago I was in my Anaïs Nin phase. I had copies of her diaries (or probably abridged diaries; the highly edited ones) and the copies of her less (?) edited diaries, that were published later. I read a number of her works, and I read at least two biographies. I assume the definitive diary of Nin, up until 1995, was Deirdre Bair's. I don't know if new biographies have come out since Bair's diary.

I am in the process of purging my extensive library, donating books to one of the local high schools. I have lost all interest in Anaïs Nin. I had planned to donate this book, but then I had second thoughts. So I will go through it once more and decide whether to keep it or not.

Anaïs Nin's full name was Angela Anaïs Juana Antolina Rosa Edelmira Nin y Culmell.

Her parents were: Rosa Culmell y Vaurigaud and Joaquín Nin y Castellanos.

From behindthename.com:
Spanish naming customs are used not only in Spain, but also in the many Spanish-speaking regions of Latin America.
Most people have one or two given names, followed by two surnames.
The first surname (considered the primary surname) is inherited from the father's paternal surname, the second is inherited from the mother's paternal surname.
Women usually keep their names when they marry. For example, if José Lopez Garcia marries María Reyes Cruz, both will keep their surnames unchanged. If they have a child named Tomás, his full name will be Tomás Lopez Reyes.
Sometimes the two surnames are separated by the word y meaning "and."
Traditionally, Spanish given names are taken from the names of saints. There are also many names which honour the Virgin Mary, such as Dolores, Rosario, Mercedes, Pilar, Consolata and Luz.

North Dakota Active Rigs Back Up To 56; Three New Permits, Including A New Bakken Operator -- February 11, 2020

Updates

Later, 4:04 p.m. CT: from a reader, see comments --
The Minnkota Power Coop permit is a geologic test well for the Project Tundra Carbon capture project that is progressing. Its part of the front end engineering design portion of the project that is currently under way in order to decide whether or not the project is ultimately built or not.
The tag: "ProjectTundra."

Original Post
The Daily Activity Report
Active rigs:

$50.082/11/202002/11/201902/11/201802/11/201702/11/2016
Active Rigs5663583641


Note: the February 11, 2020, daily activity report is being reported as the "February 22, 2020" report, which falls on a Saturday a couple of weeks from now. Obviously this will be corrected. The report also shows three corrections regarding earlier daily activity reports.

Three new permits, #37379 - #37381, inclusive (from earlier report, apparently):
  • Operators: CLR, Minnkota Power Coop, Oasis
  • Fields: Cedar Coulee (Dunn County); Wildcat; Sand Creek
  • Comments: 
    • CLR has another Rodney permit in Cedar Coulee, NENW section 32-147-96;
    • Minnkota Power Coop has a permit for a wildcat well in SWNE section 27-142-84; Oliver County, far to the east of the Bakken; this is Minnkota's first permitin North Dakota;
    • Oasis has another Wold permit in SWSE section 34-153-97, Sand Creek oil field
From today's report, apparently, three permits, #37381 - #37384, inclusive --
  • Operators: Petro-Hunt (2); Oasis
  • Fields: East Tioga (Mountrail); Sand Creek (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Petro-Hunt has permits for two Jorgenson wells, East Tioga oil field, NWNW section 13-158-94;
    • Oasis has a permit for a Wold well in SWSE sectio 34-153-97, Sand Creek
Six permits renewed:
  • Hess: six SC-JW Hamilton permits in Williams County;
One permit canceled:
  • EOG: a Wayzetta permit in Mountrail County
No producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed.

Oil & Gas Auction Detail -- February, 2020

Link here.
  • Billings County:
    • two parcels
    • 80-acres each
    • bonus: $15 and $17/acre
    • Northern Energy, both
  • Burke County:
    • two parcels
    • 73 acres and 80 acres
    • bonus: $17 and $18/acre
    • Northern Energy; Norra Resources
  • Divide County:
    • five parcels
    • four 80-acre parcels; one 160-acre parcel
    • bonuses: $71; $226; $228; $251; $251
    • Northern Energy (3), Diamond Resources (2)
  • Dunn County:
    • two parcesl
    • both 8-acre parcels (no typo)
    • bonus: $76/acre for both
    • Advanta Resources; Norra Resources;
  • Hettinger County:
    • one parcel
    • one 80-acre parcel
    • bonus: $16/acre
    • B J Kadrmas Inc
  • McKenzie County:
    • 24 parcels
      • 80-acre parcel: eight
      • 160-acre parcels: sixteen
    • bonuses:
      • low:$13/acre
      • $134/acre
      • most were in the $60-bonus range
    • bids
      • North Range Resources: 12
      • Dasinger Kaleb: 5
      • Beta Land Services: 4
      • Northern Energy: 2
      • Norra Resources: 1

More On That XTO "POW" Well; Monitoring Communication Between Two Upper Benches Of The Three Forks -- February 11, 2020

The well:
  • 36679, drl, XTO, Mariner 14X-36POW-S, Bear Creek, Three Forks 2B / 1B;
See #18797 at this post. "Equivalent to a new well being drilled."

From the file report, #36679:
  • the purpose of this well is to monitor fracking communication based on proximity to offset wells being fracked
  • this well is strategically landed below the Mariner 14X-36D (#36678), the wellbore traversed from the lower section of the Three Forks second bench to the lower Bakken shale
  • special fiber optic liner was run to monitor fracking communication from the Mariner 14X-36D
  • the Mariner 14X-36POW-H proved the most useful offset well in predicting formation tops
  • data was used to "pin-point" a strategic landing of the subject well;
  • curve successfully landed 28' below the top of the Three Forks second bench
  • reached TD, 16,890' MD on October 10, 2019
  • low gas units throughout the second bench
  • the greatest hydrocarbon shows (C1-C4) preferentially occurred in the more dolomitic horizons of the Three Forks first bench; background gas decreased to an approximate range of 25 - 50  units in the second bench;
  • the objects of drilling the lateral was to create a straight wellbore that traversed from the Three Forks second bench to the Three Forks first bench to be used as an observation well;
  • entry into the Three Forks first bench was noted by a distinguishable claystone at the bottom of the formation; the approach toward the Pronghorn was noted by siltstone and limestone in samples;
  • the vertical, curve, and lateral were drilled in 18 days using seven bottom-hole assemblies;
  • the wellbore was completed 100% within the Three Forks second bench and Three Forks first bench target interval, opening up 4,963' of formation to be used to monitor offset well fracking communication;
  • permit: spacing: 640 acres; section 1-147-96; Three Forks B2;
    • surface hole: SWSW 36-148-96, 108FSL, 187 FWL;
    • bottom hole: SENE 1-147-96; 1530 FNL, 102 FEL;
Graphics:




Another Nice Oasis Lewis Federal Well in Baker Oil Field -- Not Without Incident -- LOL -- February 11, 2020

The well:
  • 36047, 1,085, Oasis, Lewis Federal 5300 11-31-4BR, Baker, t8/19; cum 110K 12/19;
Initial production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201931190821924618141262741324712810
BAKKEN11-20193033068329032984933913265497154
BAKKEN10-20192517467176341895017092128104107
BAKKEN9-20193026700266163097124722230081504
BAKKEN8-2019121353513363125111303412608342

From the file report:
  • eight miles south of Williston
  • fourth of four wells drilled on this pad
  • drilled to replace the Lewis Federal 5300 11-31-4B (drilled to KOP; then plugged and abandoned)
  • surface hole spud on February 18, 2019;
  • curve was successfully landed on March 3, 2019
    • again, problems with this well
    • a sidetrack #2 drilled on March 15, 2019
    • cease drilling, March 20, 2019
    • still more problems
    • sidetrack #3 initiated on March 21, 2019
    • still more problems
    • sidetrack #4 was drilled off sidetrack #2; 
    • still more problems
    • sidetrack #5 was drilled off of sidetrack #4
    • still more problems
    • sidetrack #6 was drilled off of sidetrack #4 on March 26, 2019; MWD failure; but finally completed, March 29, 2019;
  • thirteen six-inch lateral assemblies were used on this wellbore
I think I will quit here for now.

Daimler, Daimler, Daimler -- February 11, 2020

Talk about spin:
The real story: fraud.

Market:
  • S&P 500, NASDAQ: hit all-time records. Again.
  • Sprint, of course, will surge, maybe double in share price before the week is out; it's already up 74% today;
  • AAPL: up a bit, $322.23
  • SRE: up a bit, $158.66
  • UNP: a bit, $185.32
  • IMUX, down two cents, at $8.89
  • EW, up a bit, at $228.64
  • XLNX, up 4.07%; up $3.51; trading just under $90; 52-week high: $142;
  • ENB, wow, up over 1%; up 44 cents; trading at $43, with a one-year target of $45; and paying 5.74%;
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Local weather, DFW (north Texas): drowning in rain this week.

Politics: New Hampshire primary will be a hoot. Republicans "writing in" the Dem of their choice.

Later, what does this cruise ship have in common with Mitt Romney?

  • Choices:
    • no party for either?
    • both are quarantined?
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The Book Page

From Rediscovering Homer: Inside the Origin of the Epic, Andrew Dalby, c. 2006

From page 153, the denouement:
  • the two epics; oral poems; most well-known singer associated with the epics: Homer
    • Homer probably lived around 850 BC
    • Iliad: written down -- 650 BC
    • Odyssey: written down -- 630 BC
  • author of the written versions: 
    • unknown
    • both by same author
    • a woman
This is quite interesting. Harold Bloom came to the same conclusion regarding the authorship of much of the Old Testament.

Pop Quiz: See If You Can Spot The Error -- February 11, 2020

Can you spot the error in the screenshot below?


And, no, it's not the spelling. Both "sulfur" and "sulphur" are acceptable.

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The Answer

The answer, sent in by a regular -- and, eagle-eyed -- reader:
With so many spelling/typo errors in today's reporting, it is difficult to identify ignorance from editing shortfalls.
For the record,
  • .5% is VLSFO. 
  • 3.5% is HSFO .
  • .1% is ULSFO (Ultra Low SFO) which is mandated in European and - I believe - American coastal waters. 
US LTO feedstock seems to be gaining dominance in IMO 2020 required blends. By April or so, a clearer picture should emerge as the global bunkering supply chain gravitates towards a universally recognized compatible fuel blend. 
Note: I had to look at the screenshot a dozen times. Argus never makes errors. 

Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- February 11, 2020


Hope springs eternal: Canada stands out in Baker Hughes rig count
In the United States the January 2020 rig count was 791, down from the 804 units the firm counted the previous month. Compared to January 2019, the January 2020 figure is down 274 – a nearly 26-percent drop year-on-year.
Posting an increase for both periods, however, was Canada. According to Baker Hughes, the average Canadian rig count rose 51 percent from December 2019 to January 2020 – from 135 to 204, respectively. The 204-rig count reflects a 16-percent increase from the 176 Canadian rigs Baker Hughes counted in January 2019.
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Back to the Bakken 

Active rigs:

$50.402/11/202002/11/201902/11/201802/11/201702/11/2016
Active Rigs5563583641

Two wells coming off confidential list today --

Tuesday, February 11, 2020: 34 for the month; 141 for the quarter, 141 for the year:
  • 36679, drl, XTO, Mariner 14X-36POW-S, Bear Creek,
  • 36047, 1,085, Oasis, Lewis Federal 5300 11-31-4BR, Baker, t8/19; cum 110K 12/19;
RBN Energy: midstreamers' benefiting from past decisions, new investments
The Shale Revolution created enormous opportunities for U.S. midstream companies. But opportunities are only that. It’s what individual midstreamers did with those opportunities through the 2010s — the decisions each made on where to invest and what to invest in — that will help determine how well they will do over the next decade and beyond. And the best way to assess the wisdom of these investments is to examine them one by one, and consider their locations, their exposure to risk and their potential for growth. Today, we discuss highlights from the newly released company-by-company portion of East Daley Capital’s “Dirty Little Secrets” report.