Sunday, February 9, 2020

Busy, Busy, Busy In The Bakken -- February 9, 2020

Busy, busy, busy in the Bakken.

This is approximately 10 miles by 5 miles, a fifty-section rectangle.


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Creeque Alley

Dylanesque. Reminds me of Subterranean Homesick Blues, released 1965.

Creeque Alley, The Mamas and The Papas, 1967

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Tulip Season


And there will be more.

Campaign 2020

February 26, 2020: even after this was announced by Rush Limbaugh, this story was hard to find. A special election in Kentucky -- a state congressional seat held for 32 years by a Democrat was won by a Republican. Link here and here.

February 26, 2020:





February 24, 2020: fabulous recipe as reported by Leesa K. Donner --
In every one of these categories, Trump rally metrics show that American support for the president is bigger, stronger, and louder than 2016. Again, these are are metrics from the Trump rallies:
  • Toledo, OH: 22% identified as Democrats, 21% as independents; 15% had not voted in the last four presidential contests.
  • Hershey, PA: 18% of attendees were non-white.
  • Milwaukee, WI: 57.9% did not have a history of voting Republican.
  • Phoenix, AZ: 18% identified as Democrats, 26% didn’t vote in 2016.
Recipe: Death By A Thousand Cuts

The recipe:
One cup of people from the other party, two teaspoons of independents, a dash of black voters, and you have one hell of a recipe for Democrat Disaster FlambĂ©. 
If these statistics are a harbinger of things to come then it’s all over save the fat lady bursting into “God Bless America.”

And that, my friends, is what has the Democrats freaking out.
February 23, 2020: how badly is Bloomberg doing? His first (and only?) cable network interview was with Al Sharpton (MSNBC). Al Sharpton? Are you kidding me? 

February 19, 2020: after promising to do so, he now says he will not release his medical records. 

February 17, 2020: hopefully we'll never lose this video

February 14, 2020: by Super Tuesday, it will be a two-man race: Bernie vs Bloomberg. Bloomberg will be (rightly) accused of buying the nomination. LOL. And that, Bernie, is the way it works in a free market / capitalist system.



February 13, 2020: supreme irony -- the Democrat most against billionaires will lose to a billionaire who "buys" the Democrat nomination. Comparing 2016 New Hampshire with 2020 New Hampshire:
  • Trump: 35%..... Bernie: 26%
  • John Kasich: 16% .... Buttigieg: 24%
  • Ted Cruz: 12% ... Klobuchar: 20%
  • Jeb Bush: 11% .... Pocahontas: 9%
  • Marco Rubio: 11% ... Biden: 8%
  • Chris Christie: 7% ... all the rest, none more than 4%
  • By New Hampshire, 2016, Trump was clearly the front-runner.
    • 2016: money for Trump was not a problem
  • New Hampshire, 2020, no clear front-runner among the Democrats
    •  2020: money is a huge, huge problem for Democrats; and,
    • Bloomberg is yet to enter a primary

February 12, 2020, 3:22 p.m. CT: on Fox Business, the governor of New Hampshire says it is very, very obvious the Dems will have a brokered convention, three candidates in the left of center lane; and, three candidates in the socialist lane. Down to eight Democrat candidates: Andrew Yang dropped out; Bennett dropped out; and, Deval Patrick suspended his campaign. The "talk" is now changing:
  • no Democrat will come to the convention with enough votes to win on the first vote;
  • if the Democrat who comes to the convention with the most votes does not win, there will be a huge "civil war" within the party
February 12, 2020: Most viable Democrat candidate? Mike Bloomberg. Any rational person would agree that he's the only "reasonable" Democrat candidate. So, how does a Bloomberg-Trump campaign stack up against Hillary-Trump:
  • Hillary-Trump
    • Hillary had lots of baggage, but she really, really had the support (most popular votes); media support
    • no one knew who/what Trump was
    • Trump was brand new at a political campaign; had no national organization when he started;
    • some argue that Hillary campaigned very poorly; I don't think so (only in hindsight); but she had huge crowds, and she was always a dynamic speaker; her husband would light up the arena
  • Bloomberg-Trump
    • everyone now knows what Trump stands for
    • Trump now has the bully pulpit of the presidency; can control events now; couldn't control events at all in previous election
    • a dynamic speaker; still packs them in
    • Bloomberg is not a dynamic speaker; he will come off dull and like any other dull, white, old billionaire politician;
    • so far, Bloomberg's only platform plank: get rid of Trump; as Steyer found out, that's not enough;
    • I don't see minorities -- Hispanics or African-Americans -- coming out in droves for Mike Bloomberg;
  • bottom line: I just don't see Bloomberg the politician anywhere near Hillary;
February 11, 2020: Joe Biden won't even stick around to thank his supporters in New Hampshire. On the day of the New Hampshire primary, Joe Biden says he is flying to South Carolina even before the New Hampshire votes are tallied. 

February 10, 2020: Let it go! Bernie Sanders isn't ready to move past Iowa after Buttigieg declared winner. Buttigieg, for those who have forgotten: mayor of the fourth-largest city in Indiana with a really, really bad civil rights record. But there you have it.

February 9, 2020: the Democrat candidates have two themes: a) "the deplorables"; and, b) get Trump out of office.
I do think that the current Democrat problems began with "the deplorables" speech. Every democrat has continued with that meme -- that anyone voting for any GOP candidate is a deplorable and that message clearly is not working.
Likewise, for about one full year, Steyer only ran ads on getting Trump removed from office. That ad campaign went nowhere. Steyer never got more than 1% of the national polling. He finally changed his theme ("running for president") but he still has not platform, except global warming. For the most part, the Democrat platform is simply "elect anyone who can beat Trump." Bernie might be an exception.
    February 9, 2020: link here.



    Whiting Looking To Expand In The Bakken -- February 9, 2020

    This is quite remarkable. Yesterday I posted the "Bakken graphic of the day," and coincidentally it happened to of Robinson Lake, and now this story below -- about the Robinson Lake Gathering system. 

    Multiple reports; here's one link.
    Whiting Oil and Gas plans to expand an oil conditioning facility in Mountrail County to accommodate climbing production.

    The company seeks approval from the North Dakota Public Service Commission to expand its Robinson Lake Oil Conditioning Facility 8 miles northeast of New Town. The expanded facility would handle up to 65,000 barrels per day of oil, a 20,000-barrel increase over its current capacity, according to an application Whiting filed with the PSC. The oil, once conditioned, would then be taken by pipeline to market.

    "Commodity prices have supported an increase in the crude production in the basin and in particular on wells and acreage dedicated to the Robinson Lake Oil Gathering system," the company said in its application. "Due to this increase, and in anticipation of future volume growth, the need has arisen for additional oil conditioning capacity on Whiting's system."
    I don't know if folks remember, but Whiting, many years ago, reported very low break-even prices in the Bakken, as has the NDIC.

    From twitter earlier today:


    Initial Production For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- February 9, 2020

    35882, conf, Liberty Resources, Kaitlyn 158-93-30-31-4TFH, East Tioga,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-20191051319378
    11-20191473721101
    10-20191672020969
    9-20191397417869
    8-201972039440

    36617, conf, MRO, Easton 44-20H, Murphy Creek,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-2019130938503
    11-20191639910509
    10-2019165531171
    9-2019199930
    8-2019106580

    36198, conf, MRO, Parmeter 14-21H,  Murphy Creek,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-2019165539762
    11-20191846912279
    10-2019173681194
    9-2019172370
    8-2019132680

    36197, conf, MRO, Reagan 14-21H, Murphy Creek,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-2019118167009
    11-2019153609186
    10-2019169901272
    9-2019183290
    8-2019143950

    28190, conf, Oasis, Lewis Federal 5300 21-31 6B, Baker,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-20193414825168
    11-20191281911550
    10-20192881623303
    9-20195442
    8-2019431162

    36680, conf, XTO, Mariner 13X-36POW-H, Bear Creek, no production data,

    35883, conf, Liberty Resources, Haley 158-93-29-32-10MBH, East Tioga,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-20191282418005
    11-20191707521903
    10-20191914322776
    9-20192026924225
    8-20191317616143

    28194, conf, Oasis, Lewis Federal 5300 21-31 5B, Baker,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-20192499318155
    11-20191865216465
    10-20192783522607
    9-20192678622938
    8-20191199510266

    36679, conf, XTO, Mariner 14X-36POW-S, Bear Creek, no production data,

    36047, conf, Oasis, Lewis Federal 5300 11-31-4BR, Baker,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-20191924613247
    11-20193290326549
    10-20191763412810
    9-20192661623008
    8-20191336312608

    36678, conf, XTO, Mariner 14X-36D, Bear Creek, no production data,

    36427, conf, XTO, Linda 41X-22HXE, Capa, no production data,

    36426, conf, XTO, Linda 41X-22D, Capa, no production data,

    35654, conf, Lime Rock, Twist 5-3-10H-143-95L, Murphy Creek,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-201991111769
    11-20196933704
    10-201969492745
    9-2019135974326
    8-2019118602438

    34954, conf, Petro Harvester, PTL4 10-15 163-92 C, Portal,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-201943263503
    11-201918400

    34953, conf, Petro Harvester, PTL4 10-15 163-92 B, Portal,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-201943573163
    11-201924980

    36665, conf, PetroShale, Jorgenson Federal 3MBH, Bear Den,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-2019251570
    11-201926300

    34951, conf, Petro Harvester PTL4 10-15 163-92 D, Portal,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-201945853790
    11-20193120

    36664, conf,PetroShale, Jorgenson Federal 2MBH, Bear Den,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-2019251570
    11-201926300

    36425, conf, XTO, Linda 41X-22H, Capa, no production data,

    35884, conf, Liberty Resources, Haley 158-93-29-32-1TFH, East Tioga,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-20191022414196
    11-20191393617321
    10-20191839322014
    9-201974079428
    8-20191012210384

    35069, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Issendorf 16-10H, Russell,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-201910460
    11-201911240
    9-20193880
    8-20193860

    35048, conf, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6F, Siverston, no production data,

    32354, conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 8-20H2, Elm Tree,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-201920302306
    11-201922351508
    10-201918351906
    9-201912971710
    8-201935055041

    "Walking Rigs" -- From The Houston Chronicle -- January, 2014

    A reader mentioned "walking rigs" in a recent comment.

    The reader linked this SeekingAlpha article from 2019 with regard to what they are doing in the Utica. 

    This is a nice article, from The Houston Chronicle for newbies (and maybe also for some us older folks, LOL). I'm sure the article will eventually disappear or end up behind a pay wall. This was published back on January 18, 2014. Archived.

    The article begins:
    Highly specialized mobile rigs are literally walking over the oil patch's collection of aging equipment - tamping down sales and profits in a burst of efficiency that's making some drillers victims of their own success.
    Large oil field services companies deploy the pricey machines called walking rigs to grab customers from midsize drillers that have to stretch to afford replacing their drilling armadas with the new-generation gear.
    But the market is getting tighter for drillers large and small, as producers embrace walking rigs - so-called for the massive mechanical feet that let them move among well sites - and other technologies that let them drill more wells and harvest more oil while spending less on oil field services.
    Baker Hughes recently reported a 9 percent rise in the number of wells the average U.S. land drilling rig produced in the fourth quarter (2013), compared with the same period a year ago (2012).

    The CLR Mack Wells In Antelope-Sanish Have Been Updated -- February 9, 2020

    These wells are tracked here.

    Considering these are Antelope-Sanish wells, these are very, very disappointing.

    Observatons On Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- February 9, 2020

    Wells coming off the confidential list this next week have been posted.

    Three things of note:
    • very few wells coming off the confidential list this next week; six months ago,  early August, 2019;
    • Oasis is reporting two wells with "old" permits numbers;
    • XTO has a couple of wells with "strange" names;
    So, let's look at these.

    First, the Oasis wells:
    • 28190, conf, Oasis, Lewis Federal 5300 21-31 6B, Baker, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-20193414825168
    11-20191281911550
    10-20192881623303
    9-20195442
    8-2019431162
    • 28194, conf, Oasis, Lewis Federal 5300 21-31 5B, Baker,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    12-20192499318155
    11-20191865216465
    10-20192783522607
    9-20192678622938
    8-20191199510266

    Baker oil field is tracked here. It's turning out to be quite a nice field, not surprising considering where it is located. Coincidentally, I updated this field late last week. These are nice wells. Let's look at FracFocus data for one of the wells  -- #28194 -- no frack data over at FracFocus, but obviously these two wells have been fracked. FracFocus does have frack data for #28190:

    #28190: 7/15/19 - 7/29/19, a relatively large frack -- 13.1 million gallons of water; 93.7% water by mass.

    By the way, a lot of the Oasis Baker oil field wells are Three Forks wells.

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    The XTO Mariner Wells

    I do not know the "reason" for these particular names, something new for me:
    • 36679, conf, XTO, Mariner 14X-36POW-S, Bear Creek,
    • 36680, conf, XTO, Mariner 13X-36POW-H, Bear Creek,
    The graphic:

    36679, conf, XTO, Mariner 14X-36POW-S,

    Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- February 9, 2020

    Monday, February 17, 2020: 42 for the month; 149 for the quarter, 149 for the year:
    None.

    Sunday, February 16, 2020: 42 for the month; 149 for the quarter, 149 for the year:
    35882, conf, Liberty Resources, Kaitlyn 158-93-30-31-4TFH

    Saturday, February 15, 2020: 41 for the month; 148 for the quarter, 148 for the year:
    None.

    Friday, February 14, 2020: 41 for the month; 148 for the quarter, 148 for the year:
    36617, conf, MRO, Easton 44-20H, 
    36198, conf, MRO, Parmeter 14-21H, 
    36197, conf, MRO, Reagan 14-21H,
    28190, conf, Oasis, Lewis Federal 5300 21-31 6B,

    Thursday, February 13, 2020: 37 for the month; 144 for the quarter, 144 for the year:
    36680, conf, XTO, Mariner 13X-36POW-H, 

    Wednesday, February 12, 2020: 36 for the month; 143 for the quarter, 143 for the year:
    35883, conf, Liberty Resources, Haley 158-93-29-32-10MBH, 
    28194, conf, Oasis, Lewis Federal 5300 21-31 5B, 

    Tuesday, February 11, 2020: 34 for the month; 141 for the quarter, 141 for the year:
    36679, conf, XTO, Mariner 14X-36POW-S,
    36047, conf, Oasis, Lewis Federal 5300 11-31-4BR, 

    Monday, February 10, 2020: 32 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 139 for the year:
    36678, conf, XTO, Mariner 14X-36D,

    Sunday, February 9, 2020: 31 for the month; 138 for the quarter, 138 for the year:
    36427, conf, XTO, Linda 41X-22HXE, 
    36426, conf, XTO, Linda 41X-22D,
    35654, conf, Lime Rock, Twist 5-3-10H-143-95L,
    34954, conf, Petro Harvester, PTL4 10-15 163-92 C,
    34953, conf, Petro Harvester, PTL4 10-15 163-92 B,

    Saturday, February 8, 2020: 26 for the month; 133 for the quarter, 133 for the year:
    36665, conf, PetroShale, Jorgenson Federal 3MBH,
    34951, conf, Petro Harvester PTL4 10-15 163-92 D,

    Friday, February 7, 2020: 24 for the month; 131 for the quarter, 131 for the year:
    36664, conf,PetroShale, Jorgenson Federal 2MBH, 
    36425, conf, XTO, Linda 41X-22H, 
    35884, conf, Liberty Resources, Haley 158-93-29-32-1TFH,
    35069, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Issendorf 16-10H,
    35048, conf, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6F,
    32354, conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 8-20H2,

    We Tend To Forget -- February 9, 2020

    Flashback: from October 28, 2018:The "EUR graph" from the September, 2018, CLR presentation:


    t appears the "21xxx" permits were drilled in the 2012 time-frame. If so, look at the EUR line back in 2011 and then in 2014 in the graphic above. I think most readers remember when we started out in the Bakken -- we were looking at EURs of 375,000.

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    Rachel Sweet

    Amazing how many dots could be connected with this one video:

    Then He Kissed Me, Rachel Sweet