Friday, February 7, 2020

Self-Immolation -- February 7, 2020

Updates

Later, 6:32 p.m. CT: cleaning house --

 
Original Post
 
I may have to start a new blog dedicated to the "Victory Lap" speech, East Room of the White House, noon, February 6, 2020.

Best recent example of self-immolation -- the act of killing oneself for political or religious reasons, particularly by burning. Ouch.


...and if he divulged any confidential - secret - top secret - compartmentalized information without authority his leaving the White House may be the least "bad thing" that happens to this officer.

I'm sure the way this works, is that he will be interviewed by a superior officer and that testimony will be compared with what he provided at the impeachment hearings.

And, oh, by the way, my hunch is that the president didn't have to say a thing. Except what he said in his speech yesterday.

Item: a "talking head" -- it might have been Andrea Mitchell or someone else at MSNBC -- laughed at the "Victory Speech," suggesting that it appeared to be nothing more than an alphabetical list of names that was the basis for President Trump's stream of consciousness. I would suggest that who(m)ever made that comment -- and others who think the same thing -- may want to go back through that speech, line by line.

CNN is reporting that Vindman's brother -- also at the White House -- was also fired.

Later: the video soundbite suggests that President Trump did not make the decision to fire him. He implied that decision would be left to others. LOL. Brilliant.

Henry Bad Gun Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil; Small Frack; Seven New Permits -- February 7, 2020

Active rigs:

$50.342/7/202002/07/201902/07/201802/07/201702/07/2016
Active Rigs5463584042

Seven new permits, #37366 - #37372, inclusive:
  • Operators: Petro-Hunt (6); Enerplus
  • Fields: East Tioga (Burke County); Moccasin Creek (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • Petro-Hunt has permits for a 6-well Jorgenson/Estby pad in SWSW section 35-159-94, East Tioga oil field;  
    • Enerplus has a permit for an Amphibolite well in NENE section 17-147-93; Moccasin Creek;
Five permits canceled:
  • EOG: five Wayzetta permits in Mountrail County --
  • these five wells are to the far east of the Parshall oil field; not a particularly great area; perhaps a bit too far east
  • #32540, #32541, #32523, #32522, #32521 
    • Wayzetta 92-0136H
    • Wayzetta 93-0136H
    • Wayzetta 90-1312H
    • Wayzetta 89-1312H
    • Wayzetta 407-1312H
  • interestingly, the one well in the 640-acre drilling unit in this area:
    • 17281, 1,320, EOG, Wayzetta 13-01H, Parshall, t10/08; cum 481K 12/19; 
    • my hunch: someone will come back to this drilling unit
*************************************************
The Enerplus Metamorphic Rock Pad

This pad is tracked here

Amphibolite will be on/near the Enerplus pad with these wells:
  • 36225, drl, Enerplus, Horfels 147-93-08D-05H, Moccasin Creek,
  • 36226, drl, Enerplus, Mylonite 147-93-08D-05H-TF, Moccasin Creek,
  • 36229, drl, Enerplus, Slate 147-93-08D-05H-TF, Moccasin Creek,
  • 36231, drl, Enerplus, Argillite 147-93-08D-05H, Moccasin Creek,
  • 36228, loc, Enerplus, Phyllite 147-93-17A-20H-TF, Moccasin Creek,
  • 36230, loc, Enerplus, Quartzite147-93-17A-20H-TF, Moccasin Creek,
  • 36232, loc, Enerplus, Marble 147-93-17A-20H, Moccasin Creek,
  • 36233, loc, Enerplus, Gneiss 147-93-17A-20H-TF-LL, Moccasin Creek,
The well holding this lease by production:
  • 18752, 2,194, Enerplus, Henry Bad Gun 17A-20-1H, 22 stages; 2.4 million lbs; Moccasin Creek, t7/10; cum 501K 12/19; from the file report:
  • 10 miles southeast of Mandaree in Dunn County
  • part of Simray's Bakken program within the Williston Basin
  • offset wells were essential in curve operations and for landing the well bore within the preferred target interval
  • spud March 29, 2010
  • vertical hole drilled in 66 hours
  • the curve was drilled in 34.5 hours (currently, curves are generally drilled in 12 - 18 hours)
  • it appears the lateral was drilled in 133 hours
  • the lateral well bore remained in the target zone 90% of the time; and, 100% of its length was drilled within the greater middle Bakken interval
  • background gas: 100 - 1,800 units
  • gas shows ranged from 500 to 3,500 units before the flow was directed to the gas buster;
  • some shows were as high as 6,000 units
  • flares: 1-3 feet; increased to 10' as the lateral progressed
  • the rig: Precision 512; spud to TD -- 21 days; an incredible job back in 2010
Production steady but non-descript from July, 2010, to December, 2019.

For a mineral owner, what does a 500K well mean?
  • assumptions
    • family inherited and kept 160 acres of minerals in this 1280-acre spacing unit
    • during the height of the boom, these acres sold for $10,000/acre = $1,600,000 
    • the family negotiated a 20% royalty
    • the average price of oil: $40/bbl
  • calculations (usual disclaimer)
    • 160/1280 =  12.5%
    • 12.5% x 500,000 bbls = 62,500 bbls
    • x $40 = $2.5 million 
    • x 0.20 (royalty) = $500,000
  • total: $2.1 million 
  • and monthly royalties continue to be paid
  • one well; repeat: one well
  • this family will eventually have upwards of 24 wells in this drilling unit
************************************
Tulip Season

My favorite season: tulip season.



Mostly Politics; Nothing About The Bakken -- Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- February 7, 2019

Supermoon: I'm getting mixed signals on this one. Talk radio said we would see it tonight. The internets say it will be February 9th. This site doesn't even mention a "February supermoon." This site says it will be at dusk, Saturday, February 8th.



The blog: talk about coincidence, serendipity. Yesterday I wrote, and posted:
If there had been no Ukrainian phone call at all, there would have been something else. Assassinating a legitimate general Army office might be impeachable; it puts every one of our own general officers at increased risk. The emoluments issue is still out there. The "obstruction" on tax returns is still out there. Unilaterally withdrawing from the climate "deal" is still out there. There are/and were a million reasons that Nadler/Schiff could have come up with to impeach Trump. [The interesting thing is that they were unable to come up with anything substantial -- reminding us how weak their case really was. I'll get back to this later.]
Today:


This, in some ways, may be a bigger story than the impeachment hoax. The "emoluments" case might have had some substance; I don't know. But clearly the articles of impeachment had no substance. I have not seen the report, but apparently -- according to President Trump -- who occasionally is known for a bit of hyperbole -- and who may not have yet the report when he stated the case was unanimous, 3 - 0, in his favor.

Link here, and yes, it was unanimous ... but that detail was buried in the stories, if reported at all.

By the way, this is pretty "funny." The president is "scooping" his own news. The press was completely unaware of this breaking story -- or had not yet had time to report it -- or maybe they had no plans to report it -- until President Trump mentioned it (in passing?) while walking out to his helicopter on his way to a North Carolina rally. 

New E&P Company In The Bakken: Eagle Mountain Energy Partners -- February 7, 2020

The Williston Herald is reporting a new "exploration and production" company in the Bakken: Eagle Moutain Energy Partners. Apparently Eagle Mountain Energy Partners is partnering with investment firm Pearl Energy Investment and private equity firm NGP Natural Resources.

Eagle Mountain Energy Partners: Houston-based. The other two: Dallas-based.

At the NDIC "well search" site: Eagle Mountain not listed.

Press release, January 29, 2020,  here. Data points:
  • founded by EricPregler, CEO
  • Michael DeKruif, VP of Engineering
  • both with experience at Kayne Anderson, Pioneer Natural Resources, Carrizo Oil & Gas, and, Oasis Petroleum.
Website here.

So, we'll see.

Bakken operators are tracked here. Whether or not Eagle Mountain Energy Partners is an operator or a non-operator like NOG is yet to be determined.

83-Stage, 16-Million-Lb Frack -- CLR -- Hereford Federal -- February 7, 2020

Later today this well should be reported:
  • 32354, conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 8-20H2, Elm Tree, very small production; it will be interesting to see what this is all about; Three Forks, second bench; it is already producing but minimal production; I'm eager to see what a second bench Three Forks well is all about. For a "head's up" let's look at another Three Forks second bench well on the same pad, same field, #33027 below.
  • 33027, 2,880, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H2, 83 stages; 16 million lbs; Three Forks, second bench; 1920-acre spacing; Elm Creek, 26,772 feet; conf but noted to be producing as of 4/19; produced 35K over first 19 days; t9/19; cum 37K over first 19 days; cum 115K 11/19; the September, 2019, production extrapolates to 55K over 30 days:
Full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20193127709279092646645325389946331
BAKKEN11-201930351693523727595563343853717797
BAKKEN10-201930432084310234035692954316226133
BAKKEN9-201919348823431127227569673223724730
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20195185318535418251302513

The file report for this well does not yet include the geologist's narrative.

By the way, a middle Bakken well on that pad has already produced more than 125K bbls of crude oil in less than four months:
  • 35691, 2,760, CLR, Hereford Federal 15X-17HSL, 81 stages; 18 million lbs; middle Bakken; 1920-acre spacing; Elm Creek, 26,540 feet; produced 27K over first 13 days; t9/19; cum 125K 12/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2019312556425695193775128950334955
BAKKEN11-201930318963179521666592814873410547
BAKKEN10-201931389063896625458729715241020561
BAKKEN9-201913266952613915873487502111627634
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20195206920692663322403224
BAKKEN4-20190000000

Huge Jobs Report For January, 2020

January jobs: US adds a much strong than expected 225,000 jobs. Reason: global warming.
  • at 225,000 for the month, well above Wall Street estimates
  • unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.6% -- labor force participation rate increased 0.2 percentage points to 63.4% -- highest level since June 2013
  • Wall Street looking for 158,000 jobs with unemployment rate to stay at 3.5%; its lowest in 50 years
Market:
  • Dow futures down about 130 points overnight
  • just before jobs report released this morning, Dow down 90 points
  • now? after the jobs report? down 57 points 
Utilities ... for those moving .... I was asked very nicely if I might link this site. I don't have any relationship with the individual who made the request or the site itself. But it seemed like a genuine request, so here it is.

********************************

Six Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- February 7, 2020

Peak oil? What peak oil? Global oil, gas discoveries hit four-year high in 2019. From Rigzone Data points:
  • 2019 was the best since 2015 for new hydrocarbon supplies -- despite low crude oil prices, and incredibly low natural gas prices
  • over 13 billion bbls of new oil: off west and south Africa, in Latin America, Europe -- really, Europe?
  • significant new natural gas resources: Russia, Mauritania, Iran, and Cyprus
Graphic from Rystad Energy: I wonder if the big natural gas spike in 2017 was related to Guyana? I don't know. I'm sure a reader knows.

 *********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$50.342/7/202002/07/201902/07/201802/07/201702/07/2016
Active Rigs5463584042

Six wells coming off confidential list today -- Friday, February 7, 2020: 24 for the month; 131 for the quarter, 131 for the year:
  • 36664, conf,PetroShale, Jorgenson Federal 2MBH, Bear Den, 20K first full month;
  • 36425, conf, XTO, Linda 41X-22H, Capa, no production data,
  • 35884, conf, Liberty Resources, Haley 158-93-29-32-1TFH, East Tioga, 18K first full month;
  • 35069, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Issendorf 16-10H, Russel, very small production;
  • 35048, conf, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6F, Siverston, no production data,
  • 32354, conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 8-20H2, Elm Tree, very small production; it will be interesting to see what this is all about; Three Forks, second bench;
RBN Energy: changes ahead for global oil supply management? Part 2.
U.S. shale oil production and exports have contributed to global oversupply in recent years, which, in turn, has amplified pressure on OPEC to implement production cuts to keep crude oil prices from collapsing to untenable levels. That’s led to an agreement among most OPEC countries and nearly a dozen other non-member producing countries — together known as OPEC-Plus — to limit production, an accord that’s remained in place since January 2017.
However, oversupply conditions now are also prompting U.S. oil and gas producers to pull back on their planned capital expenditures for 2020, suggesting a slowdown in U.S. production growth later this year and into 2021. Recent global oil supply and demand forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC itself suggest that such a slowdown, if it materializes, could present a window of opportunity for OPEC-Plus to relax its quotas and potentially reclaim some of its lost oil market share, at least for a time. Today, we examine what the recent changes in monthly data from IEA, EIA and OPEC indicate about potential shifts in the OPEC versus non-OPEC oil supply and demand balance and what that could mean for OPEC’s role in meeting global demand.
Earlier, we described how OPEC-Plus, including 10 non-member oil-producing countries, have managed oil supply since January 2017 under an agreement aimed at preventing a repeat of the oil-market collapse of 2014-16. Reducing supply from the 22 OPEC-Plus countries had the intended effect of supporting global oil prices. But, as expected, OPEC members’ market share fell as a result, while the share held by non-OPEC producers has increased. Production gains in the U.S. have been the most dramatic, with crude oil production growing from 8.8 MMb/d in 2014 to 12.2 MMb/d in 2019, and domestic exports of all liquid hydrocarbons have climbed from 5.3 MMb/d to 8.5 MMb/d in the four years since the U.S. lifted its ban on most crude oil exports. However, as we noted in the previous episode, U.S. producers are now signaling a slowdown in their growth.