Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead -- CLR -- February 5, 2022

CLR has just renewed twelve Gordon Federal permits.

Some observations.

First: note all the "white space." Lots and lots of work that needs to be done in the Bakken. In addition, most of those horizontals in the graphics below were completed using "old" completion strategies. These wells will all be re-fracked and/or re-drilled/re-fracked.

Certainly the interest for twelve more Gordon Federal wells is not in one tiny sweet spot surrounded by a dearth of oil in neighboring sections.

I don't follow the Permian, but what little I read suggests operators are still being challenged by the size of drilling units in the Permian, and are still flummoxed by the optimum spacing. From what I see, and I follow it pretty closely, it appears operators in the Bakken have solved one of the issues; and, having little trouble with the other issue.


Again: the ovals highlight all the "white space." Lots of work yet to be done in the Bakken. In most of the Bakken, the minimum number of wells in any 1280-acre drilling unit: eighteen wells. But it may be decades before we get to that density. Eighteen wells: middle Bakken; Three Forks, 1st bench; Three Forks; deeper benches; Sanish in some areas. When I first started blogging, I said that if a mineral owner had one well, that mineral owner would eventually have four wells, probably eight wells; possible twelve wells, and maybe many, many more than that.


Currently: seven horizontals shown. Two huge pads being developed. Only two formations are being targeted, right now.


12-well pad:


11-well pad:


The wells:
  • 16683, 224, CLR, Federal Jorgenson 14-5H, Haystack Butte, t12/07; cum 70K 11/19;

  • 36107, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 1-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken;
  • 36106, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 2-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1;
  • 36105, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 3-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken;
  • 36104, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 4-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1;
  • 36103, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 5-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken;
  • 36102, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 6-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1;
  • 36101, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 7-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; bottom hole, 4-148-97;
  • 36100, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 8-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1;
  • 36099, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 9-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken;
  • 36098, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 10-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1;
  • 36097, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 11-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken;
  • 36096, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 12-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1;

  • 36054, drl, CLR, Gordon Federal 13-8H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; spud, July 30, 2019; cease drilling, October 16, 2019; bottom hole, 9-148-97;
  • 36055, drl, CLR, Gordon Federal 14-5H1, Haystack Butte,
  • 36056, drl, CLR, Gordon Federal 15-8H, Haystack Butte,
  • 36057, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 16-5H1, Haystack Butte,
  • 36058, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 17-8H, Haystack Butte,
  • 36059, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 18-5H1, Haystack Butte,
  • 36060, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 19-8H, Haystack Butte,
  • 36061, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 20-5H1, Haystack Butte,
  • 36062, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 21-8H, Haystack Butte,
  • 36063, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 22-5H1, Haystack Butte,
  • 36064, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 23-8H, Haystack Butte, 

And With This, I'm Signing Off For The Night -- February 5, 2020


Someone made off with a bad joke?

For a chaotic, disorganized White House, this president certainly gets a lot of things done. This was revealed exclusively to one journalist just hours after the impeachment trial was over. Tomorrow the story should be everywhere:


February 6, 2020, 12:00 noon, oval office: the gloves come off.

Romney theme song: after listening to Romney's explanation for voting "guilty," this immediately came to mind. His reason for voting the way he voted comes down to a "spirit in the sky." He made more references to the Creator than Carter has liver pills, as they say, in his speech to convict.

This song came out during Romney's coming of age years: the song came out in 1969; Mitt married in the same year.

Spirit in the Sky, Norman Greenbaum

Kraken With Four New Permits -- February 5, 2020

Active rigs:

$51.142/5/202002/05/201902/05/201802/05/201702/05/2016
Active Rigs5463584042

Five new permits, #37360 - #37364;
  • Operators: Kraken (4): Liberty Resources Management
  • Fields: Oliver (Williams); Enget Lake (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Kraken has permits for a 4-well Wallace pad in lot 4 / section 6-157-98, Oliver oil field
    • Liberty Resources has a permit for an Albertson well in section 28-158-93, Enget Lake
One permit renewed:
  • CLR: a Gordon Federal permit in Dunn County

Willow Creek Field Getting Active Again; Rig On Site -- February 5, 2020

Willow Creek oil field is tracked here

Graphics, February 5, 2020:



All Politics -- Nothing About The Bakken --- February 5, 2020

Wow, wow, wow --- new Gallup poll -- after impeachment, but before the SOTU address. The percent of Americans polled who have a positive view of the GOP:
  • September, 2019: 43%
  • after impeachment: 51%
Americans:
  • prefer fair play; the US House impeachment was anything but fair
  • like the underdog; the longer this went on, the more Trump looked like an underdog
Best news all day: the opportunist shows his cards -- Mitt Romney says he will vote to convict President Trump. The big question: when will Romney declare himself as an independent? He will have a lot of free time. going forward. No meaningful committee assignments, and certainly no committee chairs. Won't be invited to (m)any White House functions or GOP luncheons. A man without a party. One of the nice things about these votes: the president will know who his friends really are.


********************************
Market

Dow: up 483 points at the close, at the very time the vote on the US Senate impeachment trial.

NASDAQ: second consecutive day with new all-time record.

Both NASDAQ and S&P 500 with new all-time records. 

Stocks in the news:
  • Tesla: warns of Model 3 delays in Shanghai.
  • GM: drops Lyft as a partner. 
  • PSX: no dividend change. 
**************************************
The Book Page

Rediscovering Homer: Inside the Origins of the Epic, Andrew Dalby, c. 2006.

Finally, a book that really, really explains how we got from the oral version of the Iliad and the Odyssey to the written works.

For the "reader's digest" version, two links:
  • Milman Parry, wiki; and, 
  • the making of the Homeric verse, NY Times

Snarky Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- February 5, 2020

Iowa: Wow, two days later. This is hard to believe -- only 71% of precincts reporting in Iowa -- anyone who thinks this is all on the "up ad up" isn't doing a lot of thinking. LOL.

February 5, 2020, 10:46 a.m. ET, The New York Times, and only 71% of precincts reporting:
  • Buttigieg, 26.8%: 11 delegates
  • Sanders, 25.2%: 11 delegates
  • Pocahontas, 18.4%: 5 delegates
  • Biden,15.4%: 0 delegates
  • Amy, legend in her own mind, punching above her weight, 12.6%: 0 delegates
  • Steyer, the village idiot, 0.3%; 0 delegates
What stands out? Nothing. LOL. Except that only 71% of precincts are reporting and I don't see the actual raw numbers of folks voting, either total votes or votes for each candidate.

Oh, I missed that. What stands out: Biden left Iowa saying he felt good about getting his fair share of delegates. He did get his fair share of delegates. The following all got the same number of delegates:
  • Biden, Klobuchar, Yang, Steyer, Bloomberg, Gabbard, Deval Patrick; Michael Bennet, John Delaney, uncommitted, and other.
Yesterday I asked Sophia what "app" she would use to count votes in Iowa?


February 5, 2020, 10:46 a.m. ET, The New York Times, and only 71% of precincts reporting:
  • Buttigieg, 26.8%: 11 delegates
  • Sanders, 25.2%: 11 delegates
  • Pocahontas, 18.4%: 5 delegates
  • Biden,15.4%: 0 delegates
  • Amy, legend in her own mind, punching above her weight, 12.6%: 0 delegates
  • Steyer, the village idiot, 0.3%; 0 delegates
Off the net for awhile. Off to local Lego store. I feel the need to build. Bricklink.com is now part of the Lego family. Wow. And "Bricks and Minifigs" have a relationship with Bricklink.com, and I have a relationship with "Bricks and Minifigs."

Snarky Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- February 5, 2020

Updates

February 10, 2020: Ford -- little room for error. Bloomberg.  
Joe Hinrichs, Ford’s 53-year-old automotive president, will leave on March 1 after almost two decades with the company. As a rising star under celebrated former CEO Alan Mulally, he was put on the fast track to be a potential heir to the top job.
With Hinrichs out of the picture, Ford is elevating Jim Farley, the company’s only other president, to become the first chief operating officer since the automaker planned for Mulally’s succession seven years ago.
The announcement that the board will revive the role of COO came days after Hackett reported dismal earnings results, dogged by the disastrous rollout of the redesigned Explorer SUV, and forecast more disappointing numbers for the upcoming year.
"This signals to everyone that Farley is Hackett’s successor, unless they plan to go outside the company,” said David Whiston, an analyst with Morningstar in Chicago. “Perhaps it could be nine months from now, or it could be 18 months from now, but they will make an announcement that Hackett is retiring and Farley takes over as CEO.”
Farley joined Ford from Toyota Motor Corp. in 2007, just before the bottom fell out of the U.S. auto market. He helped navigate the company through the Great Recession without resorting to the government bailouts and bankruptcies that befell General Motors and Chrysler.
Original Post 

Wow, I'm in a great mood. My only dilemma: another cup of coffee here at McDonald's or head home and have coffee there. A senior coffee refill at McDonald's is free.
  • Starbucks, tall coffee: $2.25
  • McDonald's, senior coffee: 69 cents
  • Starbucks, refill: 50 cents
  • McDonald's, senior coffee refill: free
Choices, choices, choices.

I guess I missed a great SOTU speech, but then I never watch them. I often watch the arrival of the audience and the president; love to see the fake smiles, the theater, the pomp and circumstance. Did Ruth make the speech? It sounds like Trump hit this one out of the ballpark. For a chaotic, disorganized White House, he is quite incredible. It makes me wonder, makes me ask, often, just what in the world did past presidents do with all their free time? LOL.

What's the market doing? Well, first, what's oil doing?
  • WTI: up almost 4%; who wudda guessed? Up $1.84; now trading at $51.45
    • OPEC basket slips 1.53%; down 85 cents; trading at $54.66, well below what Saudi Arabia  needs if it wants to survive
    • Brent crude: up almost 4%; up almost $2; trading at $55.92
    • oilprice has it right for once: "rising crude inventories fail to halt oil rally"; did oilprice note that US crude supplies are actually below their five-year average and John Hess says he can see the beginning of the end for US shale?
    • "beginning of the end for US shale"? We should see oil spike to $100 by the end of the day (see disclaimer)
  • Now the market:
    • Dow: up 307 points, and that's on top of a 450-point jump yesterday
    • I don't even want to look at individual stocks; it no longer makes sense
    • the "market" must have liked the SOTU speech
    • apparently Trump's approval ratings are in record territory; but I digress
      • AAPL: up $2.27; now trading at $321; still below it 52-week high
      • BRK-B: up $2.47; trading at $227.52, about $4 below its 52-week high
    • oh, let's do some dividend stocks:
      • MDU: up 4.4%; up $1.34; yup, a new 52-week high
      • D: up a bit; flirting with 52-week highs;
      • BKH: up a bit; flirting with 52-week highs;
      • T: up a bit; pays 5.63%
    • and some stocks in the news:
      • F: down 10% (more on this later, perhaps)
      • TSLA: down 12%; down $108; 
    • some pipelines:
      • ENB: up 1.33%; pays almost 6%; what's not to like?
      • OKE: up about 1.73%; pays 5%; what's not to like?
    • some one-offs
      • XLNX: up 2%
      • EW: up almost 2%; up $4.12
      • IMUX: at $9.13, down four cents; 52-week high: $46.80
      • PFE: up 2%; pays 4%
  • Wow, there was a two-three day opportunity to buy into this market; now we're back into fantasy land. LOL. 
Now back to Ford. What does Ford have that Tesla does not have. A huge, huge pension overhang. Link here.
  • Ford Motor Co.'s profit last year plunged by more than $3.6 billion, weighed down by slowing U.S. sales, the cost of a botched SUV launch and some big pension expenses. 
  • Ford: made $47 million in 2019 (Mike Bloomberg makes that in dividends each month); down from $3.68 billion in profit last year
  • EPS: for the quarter, a loss of 42 cents, weighed down by $2.2 billion in one-time pension costs (these costs are always one-time costs; we see them once a year, it seems)
  • analysts' forecast: a profit of 17 cents; instead, a loss of 42 cents; how can they get it so wrong; I guess they forgot about the one-time pension costs;
  • botched SUV launch? the article did not mention it
  • let's see if anyone does
here it is, The Chicago Tribune:
Ford CEO Jim Hackett said on a conference call with analysts that the company fell short of its expectations for the year, and he blamed the drop primarily on the flubbed launch of the new Ford Explorer SUV at its factory in Chicago.
New Explorers came off the assembly line with multiple problems and had to be shipped to a Detroit-area factory for repairs.
Hackett also referred to higher warranty costs during the year, especially for a flawed six-speed automatic transmission in the Ford Focus compact car.


I turned bearish on Ford when the company bought a scooter company, Spin; and, when it went all in on EVs, including an EV Mustang SUV. Are you kidding me?

What else does Tesla have that Ford doesn't have? Batteries. And Elon Musk, the greatest showman the world has ever seen.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- Iowa: Sanders Wins Popular Vote; Buttigieg Declared Winner -- John Hess Says It Is The Beginning Of The End -- February 5, 2020

John Hess says it's all over -- well, not quite, but the future for US shale not a bright one. If history is any guide, Hess will join Mark Papa in his US shale forecasts.
Production in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas is starting to plateau, while the Bakken field in North Dakota where Hess is a major producer will hit its peak production levels within the next two years, said Hess, who spoke Tuesday in Houston at the Argus Americas Crude Summit.
The good news: we will run out of oil just as EVs make up 95% of the global automotive market. 

By the way, I completely missed this. It appears Mark Papa has moved on. He is now the chairman of Schlumberger. Schlumberger is tapping as its chairman an executive who earned a reputation for building shale producers that bypass oil service companies.
Mark Papa, 72, who will take over as chairman of the world’s biggest oilfield service provider next month, helped give birth to the U.S. shale boom a decade ago by building Enron Corp. castoff EOG Resources Inc. into one of the nation’s biggest explorers. He’s now running Centennial Resource Development Inc.

In his new role, Papa will help Schlumberger’s next chief executive officer, Olivier Le Peuch, tackle an industry downturn as investors pressure producers to rein in spending and return cash to shareholders. Le Peuch, 55, and Papa will replace Paal Kibsgaard, 51, who’s stepping down as chairman and CEO.

A key Papa trademark is bypassing technology from the oilfield servicers, opting instead for in-house innovations. It’s what led Paul Sankey, then an analyst at Wolfe Research, to dub EOG under Papa’s watch the “APPL of oil,” referring to the trading symbol for Apple Inc. Papa did that again at Centennial, hiring key former EOG executives to help make technology one of the pillars of his new company.
Meanwhile, back in New Hampshire:
February 5, 2020, day 399: the most recent New Hampshire polls, Suffolk, 2/3 - 2/4; and, Emerson, 2/3 - 2/4 show wide divergence between the two polls:
  • Sanders: 24% in Suffolk, 32% in Emerson
  • Biden: 15% and 13% (oh-oh)
  • Buttigieg: has already declared victory and has left for South Carolina; 15% and 17%
  • Pocahontas (obviously her neighbors to the north know her well): 10% and 11%
  • the others remain irrelevant but for the record, punching above her weight, and a legend in her own mind, Klobuchar is polling at 11% and 6%
If the polling holds, Sanders could be a 2 -1 winner in New Hampshire. Biden might escape with a ...

... hey, how about a golf analogy --
  • Sanders is looking at an eagle
  • Buttigieg is looking at a birdie, will probably end up with a par; will give himself an eagle;
  • Pocahontas: a bogey
  • Biden: will be looking for his ball in the rough 
  • the others? pretty much spectators, like the rest of us
Talking points: this is most interesting.
The DNC party leaders do not want to discuss a "brokered convention." When pressed, they will not provide any thoughts on who wins/loses in a brokered convention. This speaks volumes. It's clear DNC talking heads have been given their talking points on this issue. It's clear it will be a brokered convention and DNC super-delegates will pick the Democrat nominee. Bernie will win, and win, and win. He won't win every primary, but he will win many of them, and the may win the most important primaries (or come in close second) and yet his delegate count will not be enough to win on the first vote. 
From the party that complains about the electoral college. With 71% of the precincts reporting, CBS News:
  • Buttigieg: 31,322 caucus attendees, first round; 32,673 in the second round;
  • Sanders: 27,418; then, 31,353;
  • Pocahontas: 24,041, then, 25,692;
  • Biden: 18,814, then wow wow wow 16,447
  • Klobuchar: 16,345, then, 15,470
  • Yang: 6,713; then, 1,301
  • Steyer: 2,243; then, 275
71% of Precincts
1st Vote
1st Vote
2nd Vote
2nd Vote
Comment
Buttigieg
31,322
24.68%
32,673
26.52%

Sanders
27,418
21.61%
31,353
25.45%

Pocahontas
24,041
18.95%
25,692
20.85%

Biden
18,814
14.83%
16,447
13.35%
Never hit the 15% threshold
Klobuchar
16,345
12.88%
15,470
12.56%
Never hit the 15% threshold
Yang
6,713
5.29%
1,301
1.06%

Steyer
2,243
1.77%
275
0.22%







Total Votes
126,896

123,211



How does one's numbers drop from the first vote to the second vote:
  • first vote: if you are standing with a "viable" group -- at least 15% of total number of folks at that caucus, that is your final vote; you cannot move
  • first vote: if you are standing with a "non-viable" group -- less than 15% of the total number of folks at that caucus, you can move to (realign with) a second group, which may or may not become a viable group
  • so, in Biden's case above, there were a number of caucuses in which he was unable to put together a "viable" group -- he couldn't get an initial 15% of voters in that particular caucus to stand with him; after that first vote, those Biden folks moved (realigned) elsewhere -- probably to one of the top three, maybe to Klobuchar
  • same with Klobuchar, Yang, Steyer
Dividend announcements:
  • 3M: increases dividend to $1.47; paying 3.74%
  • AFLAC: increases dividend to 28 cents; paying 2.15%
  • COP maintains dividend at 42 cents

Weekly Petroleum Report -- February 5, 2020

EIA link here.
  • US crude oil in storage increased by 3.4 million bbls.
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 435.0 million bbls, 2% below the five-year average for this time of the year. And OPEC is in panic mode? LOL.
  • refineries were operating at 87.4% operable capacity last week; wow, that's the second week in a row with such a low  number;
  • even with that, gasoline production increased; distillate fuel production decreased but still at 5.0 million b/d -- my "threshold" (5.0 million is the "inflection point" for me; up or down around that number, but 5. 0 million is right on target;
  • US imported 6.6 million bopd, on average, last week, down slightly; compared to the same four-week period last year, imports were down 12.3%;
  • coronavirus effect/IMO22: distillate fuel, over the past four weeks, is down by 12.4%;
  • coronavirus effect: jet fuel supplied down 0.5% compared with same four-week period last year
Re-balancing:
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 49
October 30, 2019
5.7
438.9
Week 50
November 6, 2019
7.9
446.8
Week 51
November 14, 2019
2.2
449.0
Week 52
November 20, 2019
1.4
450.4
Week 53
November 27, 2019
1.6
452.0
Week 54
December 4, 2019
-4.9
447.1
Week 55
December 11, 2019
0.8
447.9
Week 56
December 18, 2019
-1.1
446.8
Week 57
December 27, 2019
-5.5
441.4
Week 58
January 3, 2020
-11.5
429.9
Week 59
January 8, 2020
1.2
431.1
Week 60
January 15, 2020
-2.5
428.5
Week 61
January 23, 2020
-0.4
428.1
Week 62
January 29, 2020
3.5
431.7
Week 63
February 5, 2020
3.4
435.0



US Crude Oil Exports Hit All-Time Record; MAGA; Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- February 5, 2020

SOTU: I'm reading the "reviews" and "reporting" of the SOTU. Wow, I missed a good one. Incredible. I am so impressed. The president never quits. How does he do it? First ever Presidential Medal of Freedom, live at the SOTU. And not leaked by the press. I believe there is video showing Nancy Pelosi completely befuddled; couldn't find it in her copy of the SOTU address. This is pretty funny. She was given a copy with key pages removed. The pages that were there were not in order. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the  pages were stapled upside down. This is truly hilarious. And only she and President Trump (and his staff) know the joke, because you know no one is going to say a thing. Certainly not Nancy; she was completely pranked. LOL.

Record US crude oil export:



SOTU: