Friday, January 10, 2020

We'll Get Around To It When We Get Around To It; Quit Bugging Us --January 10, 2020

The well:
  • 23036, 455, Statoil, Allison 23-14 2TFH, East Fork, no production data; still SI/NC 2/19; t7/19; cum 31K 11/19; 
The permit from back in 2012: approximate date work will start, 02/15/2012.

Sundry forms and other correspondence in the file report;
  • April 16, 2013: formal request to change name of Brigham Oil & Gas L.P., to Statoil Oil & Gas, L.P.
  • May 6, 2013: permit will expire May 31, 2013
  • April 14, 2014: the permit will expire May 16, 2014
  • May 4, 2015: the permit will expire June 2, 2015
  • June 9, 2015: the permit will expire May 31, 2016
  • April 25, 2016: the permit will expire May 31, 2016
  • May 1, 2017: the permit will expire June 2, 2017
  • on/about June 1, 2017: plan to drill
  • May 8, 2017: the permit will expire May 31, 2017; the operator requests to renew the permit for one year
  • on/about July 10, 2017: plan to drill
  • hallelujah! spudded July 18, 2017
  • reached TD: August 28, 2017
  • completion/test: 7/9/2019
  • frack data not in the NDIC file report as of 1/10/2020
Production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-201914484844631891142683505734
BAKKEN10-201900990000
BAKKEN9-201924686372253373874837320134
BAKKEN8-20193098409816600791079010189554
BAKKEN7-20192789528605651601158310692812
BAKKEN6-2019397088082431098159930


1969 -- Music Only -- Nothing About The Bakken

Over at another ad-free, subscription-free, password-free blog, I argue that 1969 was the best year ever for music. Period. Dot. I was reminded of that when I ran across yet another 1969 song that I had not posted (as far as I can remember) on that post of 1969 songs.

From that post:
The top 100 songs of 1969.

There was an 18-month-period, from late 1968 through mid-1970 that clearly had some of the best music ever.  This was the year of Woodstock. The Beatles were still going strong, but touring less, and would soon stop completely.  Led Zeppelin's first two albums, Zeppelin I and Zeppelin II, were released in 1969. The era of "free love" and the uncertainties of the Vietnam War probably contributed to some of this really incredible music.
Speaking of the Vietnam war, I turned 18 in 1969. My lottery draft was July 1, 1970; my lottery number was 103. The highest lottery number called for this group was 125; all men assigned that lottery number or any lower number, and who were classified as available for military service, were called to report for possible induction. I would have been deferred by virtue of being enrolled in college. I was worried that I would be called up before I graduated from college. I was convinced, but wrong, that the war would still be going on when I graduated from college.
The 1969 song that I don't recall having seen on this list before: Laughing by The Guess Who.


Laughing, The Guess Who



Valleri by the Monkees is another example. Released in August, 1968, it fits that 18- to 24- month period.


Valleri, The Monkees



Another not previously mentioned:
  • Indian Lake, The Cowsills, December, 1968
This one was a bit later, but I had not seen it before. Is this not incredible?

Are My Thoughts With You?, Linda Ronstadt

Is there anything Willie Nelson did not sing! Another incredible solo:

The City of New Orleans, The Highwaymen, ft Willie Nelson


It's incredible to see four legends on the stage at one time. Only in America. Only a few super-groups. I suppose one could call the Beatles the first super-group.

Last one. From The Kinks.

>I Go To Sleep

, Sia

Help Me, Help Me, Help Me, Sail Away, Give Me Two Good Reasons Why I Love To Stay -- A Musical Interlude -- January 10, 2020

Sunny Afternoon, The Kinks
************************
S&P Global Platts Feature:
US Shale Oil Productivity Growth Expected To Slow In Some Basins

Operative words:
  • growth 
  • expected
  • to slow
  • in some basins
The article begins:
The dramatic jump in productivity seen in the early days of the US shale oil boom may be waning, but is likely not over, according to analysts, who expect efficiencies, at least for some plays, to edge higher in 2020.
While productivity is expected to climb, drilling has slowed, and thus shale production gains are expected to slow. In the Delaware Basin in West Texas, for instance, S&P Global Platts Analytics expects crude output to average 1.5 million b/d in December 2020, up 15% on the year. That's down from a 16% gain in December 2019, and a 57% gain in December 2018.
Wells have become increasingly larger as E&P companies have drilled longer laterals, or horizontal legs, and used more proppant – sand and/or water that keep fractures open and facilitate oil and gas flow to the surface.
Deep in the article:
Moreover, improvements, at least in the Permian and Bakken Shale of North Dakota where efficiencies are still rising, will continue for at least another year. 
And:
"In the Bakken, Eagle Ford and DJ Basin [in Colorado], well productivity is observed at or close to all-time highs as of 1H 2019," the report said.
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So Put Those Headphones On And Play It Loud ...

Summer Afternoon, Ray Davies

******************** 
Yorkshire

For some reason, this song takes me back to those nights with a most beautiful woman in the pubs in north Yorkshire. Ah, yes, another life, so many decades ago. 

Less Than Two Years Old, This Bruin Fort Berthold Well Goes Over 600,000 Bbls Crude Oil -- January 10, 2020

This well was first mentioned here.

Less than two years old, more than 600,000 bbls of crude oil.

The well:
  • 30541, 4,871, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26A-35-4H, Antelope, 55 stages; 14.4 million lbs, an incredible well; staggering, t6/18; cum 609K 11/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH11-2019301166211598871436813648624612
SANISH10-2019311409913561889739556319601941
SANISH9-2019301560915638969743255326315859
SANISH8-201931181161812713274509363157514284
SANISH7-201931220252214814986415942347513814
SANISH6-2019191264012693854525159576215748
SANISH5-2019272108020966143204198264035247
SANISH4-201930243952436615743486051391626329
SANISH3-201931318923202918084732304441019011
SANISH2-20192828425283812043753934398336426
SANISH1-201931350233497722366625964017512596
SANISH12-201824241102440516587514312843518516
SANISH11-20182214137142131292422550967610733
SANISH10-201831436914382230933650252755932588
SANISH9-20183052975530445615060629460675677
SANISH8-201831725167240863718906714548039524
SANISH7-201831638006364674543906084289342889
SANISH6-201830953159595967134672113723225562
SANISH5-20181577996657261691392175723178
SANISH4-20180000000

A Half Million Bbls In Less Than Two Years -- MRO's Winona Three Forks Second Bench -- January 10, 2020

This well was first mentioned here. Note: this is a Three Forks second bench well.

This well is on a nine-well pad. Five of the wells have been drilled and are producing; four more wells yet to be drilled; rig on site (1/2020); and a tenth well in the immediate area, also on "drl" status. This is an incredible pad.



While waiting we can take another look at this staggering MRO well:
  • #33412, 6,509, MRO, Winona USA 21-2TFH-2B, Antelope oil field, t4/18; cum 465K 7/19, Three Forks B2; 45 stages; 10 million lbs, 73,742 bbls + 100,353 mcf (16,722 boe) = 90,465 bod in less than four months; t4/18; cum 510K 11/19:
Production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH11-201930107101084349922798927013119
SANISH10-201931120751199252483299230105581
SANISH9-201930108941089350693148728751602
SANISH8-2019311215612212589430725246863790
SANISH7-20193112641125076543321681626713425
SANISH6-2019301304013038668436202234909919
SANISH5-2019311561215689787837616250509789
SANISH4-20193021089208811065730332219575490
SANISH3-20191693099359398017386134422461
SANISH2-20192815277153386884275241472910738
SANISH1-20193122348223428488404772645111137
SANISH12-2018292435724159810634275275993824
SANISH11-201895692586926671162280372768
SANISH10-201831237902378216121467643289710770
SANISH9-201830289072898213617556302889523478
SANISH8-201831345453460816623555682105832353
SANISH7-201831429924307320637587821730438864
SANISH6-201830638546399225526867561391768246
SANISH5-201829572925744931612691113890826595
SANISH4-201823737427309947011003533064561613
SANISH3-201823042950128615892

Pet Peeve For Today -- January 10, 2020

All the news outlets are doing it -- from most conservative to most liberal. Even after we know the plane was shot down by a Soviet-made missile, fired by an Iranian, news outlets continue to refer to it as a "plane crash."

Using the same analogy, the general that was targeted the other day was killed in a minor fender-bender. 

"Shale Profile" Analytics Suggest A "Minor" Drop In November Crude Oil Production For November, 2019

A reader sent me this note moments ago:
Shale Profile had a January 7, 2020, article that said ND will have a small drop in the next monthly report.
They have been spot on previously with these early calls and explain how they get the info.
"Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which just made November production data available in their subscription service (showing a preliminary minor drop in output)."
https://shaleprofile.com/2020/01/07/us-update-through-september-2019/ 
Next "Director's Cut" -- with November, 2019, data, is scheduled to be reported January 17, 2020.

My hunch:
  • crude oil production down slightly 
  • natural gas production up moderately, setting a new all-time record
  • BOE production up slightly, possibly setting a new all-time record

Getting Ready For The Big One -- The Big Winter Storm That Will Hit Grapevine, TX, This Evening; Waffle Houses? All Open -- January 10, 2020

The red star denotes our area in Grapevine, TX:



It will be short; by 9:00 p.m. it will be all over.

High winds, quarter-size hail; and tornadoes.

Waffle Houses: unaffected. All remain open.

Look At The Priice Of WTI -- Barely Above $59; Six New Permits -- January 10, 2020

Active rigs:

$59.041/10/202001/10/201901/10/201801/10/201701/10/2016
Active Rigs5566533658

Six new permits, #37329 - #37334, inclusive --
  • Operators: Hess (4): Petro-Hunt (2)
  • Fields:Manitou (Mountrail), Tioga (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for a 4-well EN-Rice pad in Manitou oil field, lot 3/section 3-155-94;
    • Petro-Hunt has permits for a two-well Lovdahl pad in the Tioga oil field; lot 4 / section 5-157-94;
One permit renewed:
  • Liberty Resources: a Tucson permit in Mountrail County;

CLR's Anderson Wells In Willow Creek -- Crazy Man Creek -- Completed -- Data Updated -- Januaty 10, 2020

CLR has completed the Anderson wells in Willow Creek / Crazy Man Creek and those results have been updated.

**********************************
The Book Page

During our USAF tour of England, 1986 - 1989, we lived in East Anglia, near Thetford, England. We often visited friends in Thetford, and we often drove through King's Lynn on the way to somewhere else.

The Viking Wars: War and Peace in King Alfred's Britain, 789- 955, Max Adams, c. 2018, led me to this:

From wiki:
Between Anglo-Saxon times and the nineteenth century Norfolk was divided for administrative purposes into hundreds, plus the boroughs of Norwich, King's Lynn, Thetford and Great Yarmouth. Each hundred had a separate council that met each month to rule on local judicial and taxation matters.

The shire-system was not definitely established in East Anglia before the [Norman] Conquest, but the boundaries at the time of the Domesday Survey of 1086 remain largely unchanged to the present day. The 36 Domesday hundreds were subdivided into leets, of which no trace remains, and the boroughs of Norwich and Thetford ranked as separate hundreds, while Great Yarmouth was the chief town of three hundreds.
Two of Thetford's parishes now lie partially in Norfolk with the remainder in Suffolk.
The Domesday hundred of Emneth is now included in Freebridge while Freebridge itself, originally a hundred and a half, was later split into Freebridge-Lynn and Freebridge-Marshland. Docking hundred is now incorporated into that of Smithdon, and the boundary between Brothercross and Gallow hundred has been considerably changed. By the 19th century there were the 33 hundreds.

The leet court boundaries were more fluid and transient than the hundred court boundaries. Yet it may be possible to trace many of the early leets of Brothercross hundred. At the time of Domesday, the parishes of the hundreds of Brothercross and Gallow "were strangely intermixed". 
From time to time during the following eight centuries, various parishes of Brothercross hundred were transferred to Gallow hundred; all the parishes that used the same prior leet court were likely included in each instance.
More here.

And here:
  • hundred families of freemen
  • parishes: similar to what we call townships
Leet court description here.

Cryogenic Separation Of Natural Gases -- Methane, Ethane, Propane, Butane

From Audubon Companies:
Cryogenic separation is a processing operation that is commonly used to extract natural gas liquids (NGLs) from raw natural gas. Unlike absorption methods, which are used primarily for extracting heavier NGLs, cryogenic processes are used to separate out lighter hydrocarbons such as ethane, propane, and butane from an incoming stream.

During the process, refrigerants are used to cool the gas stream to very low temperatures. Expansion turbines then push the gas through a narrow pipe into an expansion chamber. When the gas enters the chamber, its vapor pressure drops, causing it to cool even further (typically to around -120 degrees Fahrenheit). At this temperature, methane (an extremely light hydrocarbon) stays in the stream, while the other heavier hydrocarbons condense into liquid form and flow out.

To separate these NGLs from one another, the liquid mixture is then passed through additional chambers where it is progressively warmed. Each NGL has its own unique boiling point and by controlling the temperatures within the different chambers, each specific hydrocarbon can be systematically removed and collected.

With ethane recovery rates from the gas stream ranging from 90 – 95%, cryogenic separation is typically one of the most efficient methods of NGL extraction. The expansion turbine used in the process can also be configured to harness some of the energy released during the expansion process to recompress the gaseous methane effluent, which ultimately results in lower energy costs.

Aside from propane, which is a very important standalone fuel, NGLs are most commonly used as petrochemical feedstock and as blending and processing components in a wide range of refining processes.
Lots of words above. Bottom line:
  • natural gas (all that stuff one sees being flared) comes up with the crude oil
  • on site, the natural gas (all that stuff one sees being flared) is separated from the crude oil
  • that natural gas, instead of being flared, is brought to a very, very, very low temperature
  • at that very, very, very low temperature, methane remains as a gas, and continues to flow (either to be flared or to be captured)
  • meanwhile, all the other "gases" become liquid and settle out and piped elsewhere
  • these NGLs are piped through progressively warmer chambers, and the various "liquids" separate out into pure ethane, propane, and butane

Only One Well Coming Off Confidential List Today -- January 10, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
 

AAPL: pre-market, up another $1.37.

Jobs report, December, 2019: incredibly good report. Missed expectations and October/November job data revised downward, but inside the headlines, huge, positive story. Link here.
  • unemployment among high school dropouts: lowest rate on record
  • U-6: at record lows (under-employed; marginally attached ot the workforce)
  • under-employment: 6.7%; lowest on record back to 1994
  • average work week: 34.6 hours
  • no wage inflation
  • hourly wage gain of 2.9% -- first time this measure has dipped below 3% since July, 2018
  • forecast: 3.1%
  • actual: 2.9%
  • unemployment rate unchanged at 3.5%; remains the lowest level in 50 years

Jobs report, more at the WSJ:
  • tenth straight year of payroll gains; longest stretch in 80 years of data
  • labor-force participation at 63.2%
  • and note this, economists wonder where all the workers are coming from to support all these job openings -- note this --
  • the labor-force participation rate had slowly edged higher in recent years, but remains well below levels before the recession, reflecting changing demographics and the fact some Americans have given up seeking work
**************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$59.531/10/202001/10/201901/10/201801/10/201701/10/2016
Active Rigs5566533658

Only one well coming off confidential list today -- Friday, January 10, 2019: 31 for the month; 31 for the quarter; 31 for the year:
  • 35021, 490, Lime Rock Resources III, Anderson 13-24-1TFH, Alger, t7/19; cum 61K 11/19;
RBN Energy: southern California gas constraints ease.
Southern California is poised to have greater natural gas supply flexibility this winter, buoyed by improved access to local storage and the completion of repairs on an important inbound pipeline. Ongoing pipeline outages and maintenance had limited flows over the past few years, creating supply constraints that were then compounded by restricted access to the Aliso Canyon storage field. This led to major volatility in gas prices, which spiked as high as $39/MMBtu in July 2018. Recent repairs and regulatory changes aim to alleviate the situation and limit the likelihood of dramatic pricing moves during the 2019-20 winter season. Today, we provide an overview of recent developments in the SoCal gas market.
********************************** 
Initial Production For The One Well 
Coming Off Confidential List Today

The pad: this well is on a two-well pad; the horizontals will run north to south, parallel to two other Anderson wells (#35238 and #35239). In addition, all four of these wells (#35021, #35022, #35238, and #35239), all running north to south, intersect at 45-degree angles, three older Lime Rock wells (#18647, #24511, and #22122). The halo effect is noted in all three wells to varying degrees. There is a lot more work to be done on this drilling unit.

The well:
  • 35021, 490, Lime Rock Resources III, Anderson 13-24-1TFH, Alger oil field, t7/19; cum 61K 11/19;  fracked, 5/29/19 - 6/9/2019, with 12.1 million gallons of water; water accounting for about 90.9% of the total proppant based on mass; a moderate-sized frack.
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2019151845126
10-2019173207153
9-201979194164
8-2019117455622
7-201977171386