Updates
Later, 9:17 p.m. CDT: just after posting the note below, this story popped up on my radar: NFL football game game scheduled this weekend is postponed indefinitely due to Covid-19. Now these guys are taking all precautions to prevent coming down with Covid-19, and here you have it. I guess masks aren't enough; social distancing, not enough. Just think, no lock down and these guys would have all had the infection four months ago, and would now be immune. We won't see a universal, easily accessible, inexpensive vaccine for at least a year.
Original Post
I'm going to sound like a broken record, but I've become convinced that the Chinese Flu pandemic of 2020 will be a repeat of the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. There's no reason why it won't. There will be fewer deaths (by a large margin; better medical care); no vaccine until the pandemic has largely run its course; multiple "waves." Most places around the world are in the second wave now. Re-posting:
The best historic precedent:
The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. Lasting from February 1918 to April 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world's population at the time – in four successive waves. The death toll is typically estimated to have been somewhere between 17 million and 50 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.Let's parse that paragraph:
- February, 1918 --April, 1920: 26 months
- no vaccine -- didn't even know it was a virus at that time
- a third of the world's population became infected
- death toll: estimated between 17 million and 50 million
- four successive waves
Most remarkable: despite no vaccine, "only" a third of the world's population became infected.
I've completely tuned out the market. I remain fully invested and will continue adding to all my positions on a regular basis but I'm not following the market at all. It's pretty much impossible to not see the market (surfing the net, surfing television, e-mail, etc) but I'm doing my best. My short term horizon is five years; my long term horizon is thirty years.
Autos: link to Investor's Business Daily.
- US auto sales tanked10% at GM and Fiat Chrysler in 3Q20
- Ford is likely to report tomorrow, Friday, October 2, 2020
- as bad as the numbers are, they are beter than 2Q20 when most automakers saw declines of 30% or more
Apple: nothing new being reported today
Lonestar Resources: Eagle Ford producer, files for bankruptcy;
Oasis: same link.
- restructuring is expected to reduce its debt by US$1.8 billion
- Oasis Petroleum has enough liquidity to maintain operations and expects to emerge from the restructuring process in November 2020, according to the company
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $38.72 | 10/1/2020 | 10/01/2019 | 10/01/2018 | 10/01/2017 | 10/01/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 11 | 60 | 63 | 58 | 33 |
Seven new permits, #37868 - #37874, inclusive:
- Operator: Enerplus
- Field: Antelope (McKenzie)
- Comments:
- Enerplus has permits for a 7-well "Precipitous Ridge" pad (Flatiron, Shoal, Fjord, Hogback, Arroyo, Barchan, and Cirque) -- see this link) in NWNW 28-152-94, 330' NFL and 1068' to 1278' FWL;
Three permits renewed:
- Rimrock (2): two Two Shields Butte permits in Dunn County;
- Crescent Point Energy: a CPEUSC Keith permit in Williams County
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 36819, drl/A, WPX, Omaha Woman 24-13-12HY, Squaw Creek, t--; cum--;
- 36821, drl/A, WPX, Omaha Woman 24-13- 12HZ, Squaw Creek, t--; cum --;
- 36860, drl/A, MRO, Papa George USA 41-4H, Antelope, t--; cum 237K 4.7 months;
- 36927, drl/A, MRO, Weasel USA 11-3H, Antelope, t--; cum 259K 4 months;
- 36911, drl/A, MRO, Martha USA 11-3TFH-2B, Antelope, t--; cum 245K 5 months;
- 36914, drl/A, MRO, Keyes USA 21-3H, Antelope, t--; cum 113K 2 months;
About 41 wells were released from confidential status: the vast majority of these will be PNC due to permit expiring.
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