Sunday, September 27, 2020

Two Late Night Items -- Focus On Fracking Weekly Update Posted; Southern Wall Updated -- The El Paso Edition-- September 27, 2020

Focus on fracking, link here. The lede: distillate demand rose 40% to a six-month high, after flirting with a 26-year low last week.

From the report:

The natural gas storage report from the EIA for the week ending September 18th indicated that the quantity of natural gas held in underground storage in the US increased by 66 billion cubic feet to 3,680 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our gas supplies 504 billion cubic feet, or 15.9% greater than the 3,176 billion cubic feet that were in storage on September 18th of last year, and 407 billion cubic feet, or 12.4% above the five-year average of 3,273 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been in storage as of the 18th of September in recent years. 
The 66 billion cubic feet that were added to US natural gas storage this week was somewhat lower than the forecast of a 77 billion cubic foot increase from an S&P Global Platts'' survey of analysts, and it was also much lower than the 97 billion cubic feet addition of natural gas to storage during the corresponding week of 2019, and well below the average of 80 billion cubic feet of natural gas that has been added to natural gas storage during the same week over the past 5 years. See graph here.

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Southern Wall Update: The Laredo Edition

Link here. It's a television report so the update is a bit disjointed:

Congress appropriated 69 miles of border wall to be built in the Laredo sector. To date, 31 miles of border wall have been awarded to government contractors, but in the coming weeks the remainder of the 38 miles will be awarded to contractors so the border wall construction can begin. 
Although the City of Laredo passed a resolution against a border wall and were sued by the federal government for access to survey land back in June, they ultimately agreed to allow the federal government to go in and survey land along the city property.
The case was dismissed in early September. On Thursday, surveyors were seen working on behalf of the federal government.

Costco's -- Surges Are Fleeting -- September 27, 2020

There were so many great stories this past week. My favorite might have been the one on the US saving(s) rate.

But this one, mentioned in passing is another story, also huge. Due to the pandemic, Costco reported: less food spoilage; Costco cashing inThe WSJ;

After stockpiling early in the coronavirus pandemic, Americans continue to turn to Costco Wholesale Corp. to buy bulk quantities of groceries and cleaning supplies. 
They have also been loading carts with home furnishing. 
“As people are spending less on travel and dining out they seem to have redirected some of that spending,” said Costco financial chief Richard Galanti on a conference call Thursday. 
The warehouse retailer reported a 14.1% jump in comparable sales for the quarter ended August 30, 2020, excluding gas and currency effects. 
On that basis, Costco’s growth was nearly twice as high as the spring quarter when it was struggling with out-of-stock items and placed limits on shoppers. 
“We expected fresh food,” paper goods and other items already selling well early in the pandemic to continue selling, Mr. Galanti said, “but we were a little surprised in the strength in some of these nonfood, discretionary categories,” such as homegoods and furniture. Food is selling so fast that profit got a boost from the lack of loss due to spoilage, he said. In-stock levels have stabilized, but some items are still hard to come by in some areas, including disposable gloves and sanitizing wipes, said Mr. Galanti. 
Halloween-related sales are weaker, with a “small reduction in the amount of costumes,” he said. Some people are booking travel through the company again, but mostly for far in the future, Mr. Galanti said. 

Much more at the link.

PSAs -- September 27, 2020

First things first: Kurt Busch wins at Las Vegas. Came in to this race in twelfth position; changes everything -- for himself, and a lot of other drivers. Las Vegas is his home town. Surprise winner tonight. With a win, an automatic advance to round of eight. But still two more races in round of twelve: Talladega next week, then Charlotte.

Schitt's Creek:

Compare: 30 Rock / Tina Fey -- 16 Emmys over its lifetime; the most in any one year, I believe was five in 2008.

Stream for free:

  • download the Pop app on Apple, Android (five seconds if you can remember your password)
  • click on season / episode (five seconds)
  • free
  • priceless
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Tools

If you are lucky enough to have Harbor Freight within driving range, consider yourself very, very fortunate. 

After Sears disappeared, Harbor Freight set the bar higher. 

Sear's marketing line: "good, better, best."

Same with Harbor Freight.

Need a special tool for one weekend, for one job? Buy the tool at Harbor Freight. Return it Monday; no questions asked.

Which suggests to me: opportunities for Harbor Freight to tweak their business model.

Best price on masks I've seen, which gives me an idea on the rest of the prices in the store.

The Last "Sturgis Rally" Update -- September 27, 2020

This will be the last "Sturgis Rally" post. It's been well over a month now since the rally; time to move on. It was a low-impact hurricane that quickly degraded into a tropical storm and the press forgot all about it.

For now, one last "Sturgis Rally" follow-up.

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The Sturgis Rally Update

Link here.

Sturgis Rally: August 7 - August 16, 2020.

At link above, set "search" for "yesterday."

Number of cases means absolutely nothing.

Number of deaths associated with Covid-19 "means more" but numbers are incredibly questionable. Criteria for diagnosis varies across jurisdiction.

But be that as it may, new deaths in last 24 hours (these numbers were updated, again, after 6:00 p.m.) Low numbers are probably a function of Sunday reporting a Saturday.

  • Iowa: 3
  • Minnesota: 4
  • Nebraska: 1
  • North Dakota: 4
  • Montana: 1
  • South Dakota: 0 -- wow, so much for the Sturgis Rally story
  • Wyoming: 0 -- several days in a row with zero new deaths;

Deaths per million population, and (ranking among 50 states and DC):

  • Iowa: 416 (23) -- ranking unchanged
  • Minnesota: 365 (28)  -- ranking unchanged
  • North Dakota: 298 (34) -- ranking unchanged
  • Nebraska: 242 (40) -- up one (bad)
  • South Dakota: 237(39) -- dropped one, from 40 (good)
  • Montana: 160 (44) -- ranking unchanged
  • Wyoming: 86 (50) -- ranking unchanged -- only Alaska is lower with 71 deaths / one million

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Channeling Calvin And Hobbes

Sophia reading a bedtime story to Corky:


Update On The New Saudi Refinery On The Red Sea -- September 27, 2020

Re-posting:

All that talk about the end of oil. Sorry. Not sorry. Saudi Aramco ships first cargo from Jizan refinery; headed to Singapore. Link here

Breaking down that article:

Name of refinery:

  • Jizan, also spelled Jazan

Location of refinery:

  • in the far south of Saudi Arabia on the Red Sea
  • about 35 miles from the Yemeni border

Capacity and timeline of refinery:

  • construction completed in 2020; operations ramp up in 2020
  • operations will start with 200,000 bpd before ramping up to 400,000 bopd
  • refinery about one year behind planned date of completion; full operations

Currently:

  • first shipment on its way
  • UACC Eagle: 475,000 bbls of gasoil
  • destination: Singapore

How rebels feel about this refinery:

  • several missile attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen
  • Saudi says they have intercepted each attempted strike

Transit of tankers from this refinery:

  • through the narrow strait of Bab el-Mandeb
  • 18 miles wide at its narrowest point
  • connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea
  • limits tanker traffic to two 2-mile-wide channels for inbound and outbound shipments

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Sunday Afternoon Movie

The Great Gatsby.

I finally understand re-makes. I would like to see a re-make of The Great Gatsby

From the most recent issue of The New York Review of Books: "The Oracle of Our Unease," an essay by Sarah Churchwell, October 8, 2020. 

So, I'll watch the 2013 re-make of "The Great Gatsby," starring Leonardo DiCaprio, et al. Like Sunset Boulevard, the movie begins with the voice-over.

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Just Waitin'

Just Waitin', John Prine, cover, Hank Williams

It Won't Be Wages That Drive Next Round Of Inflation -- September 27, 2020

Updates

Later, 2:53 p.m. CDT:  It really is interesting the amount of money that slips through one's fingers. 

I haven't been to Starbucks since the "lock down" that began sometime back in March, 2020. Although there were exceptions, my weekly schedule was $3.00/day for Starbucks coffee, Monday through Friday, and it was not uncommon to add in one or two additional sessions over the weekend. So, on average, let's say $4 / day over 300 days = $1200. Or $100 / month. On top of that my wife and I would enjoy one sushi dinner each week, almost religiously, setting us back a meager $50/meal for two. Fifty weeks x $50 = $2,500. Barnes and Noble every Saturday, maybe Sunday, probably $20/weekend at Barnes and Noble, 50 x $20 = $1000. Which reminds me, I won't be renewing our Barnes and Noble card ($25) and we won't be renewing our Ft Worth fine arts museum membership, $75. Gasoline is down to about $20/month. No typo. 

Later, 2:45 p.m. CDT: it's amazing  how much free time one has on the weekend when there is no sports to watch. The college football airings are a joke. 

The NFL is not much better. Speaking of which, NASCAR today? Hard to say, but apparently from Las Vegas, starting about 6:15 p.m. CDT. I will miss the start. I will be over at Sophia's house.

Generally speaking, of those "required" to wear a mask along the sidelines, most are wearing their masks below their noses.

Original Post

Blog post suggested by a reader. A huge "thank you."

Link here.

Before the pandemic, total savings deposits had risen significantly under the Trump administration, from around $8 trillion to $10 trillion (a 25% increase). But think about this: during the pandemic, Americans actually increased the total amount in savings by another 20 percent. The "buzz" in the mainstream media was that a lot of Americans were pulling money from savings to stay "afloat." There's no question that's accurate, but the "big picture" suggests something else.

So, were Americans simply moving money from the stock market to savings accounts. Just prior to the pandemic and even during the pandemic, the three major US equity indices hit all-time highs. During a recession. 

Back of the envelope: ($12 trillion - $8 trillion) / 350 million = $12,000 per US citizen.

This is what is wrong with that "thought." In fact, one can estimate 50% of Americans (pick whatever number you want) don't have any savings at all.

Therefore, disposable income that could hit the retail market might be:

  • ($12 trillion / $8 trillion) / 150 million = $27,000 / per resident with the wherewithal to spend.

For an average family of two, that equals close to $60,000 per family. 

Now, add this bit of trivia: the baby boomers are now aged between 54 - 76 years of age. Retirees can begin withdrawing funds from their retirement accounts at age 59, and must start taking distributions no later than age 72. You can do the math. 

Japan has long been considered the queen of savings:




By the way, where will a lot of folks "put their" RMDs? Yup, right back into the stock market. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

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Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- September 27, 2020

All that talk about the end of oil. Sorry. Not sorry. Saudi Aramco ships first cargo from Jizan refinery; headed to Singapore. Link here.

Shift: Russia leads China's August crude imports, Saudi slips. Link here

Iran: in deep doo-doo. Eyes new lockdown measures as Covid-19 cases rise. Link here. Desperate for a Biden administration. 

China's natural gas: latest threat. Link here to Irina Slav.

A drive to cut electricity prices for end-users has prompted Beijing to reduce gas-fired power plant tariffs, which has threatened the survival of many of them, Wood Mackenzie reports, adding to already substantial pressure on the industry from the ongoing trade war with the United States.

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Haven't These Been Around, For Like, Three Decades

Rory Satran: new nominee for the 2021 Geico Rock Award. Thong bikinis. Rory needs to get out more -- maybe visit southern California.

The story Rory discovered: sales of skimpy, Brazilizn-stye swimsuit bottoms soared unexpectedly this year as women socially distanced in backyards and beaches. 

Link here.  No screenshots. This is a family blog. LOL. 

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Late Night Television Tonight

Miranda.  

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What I Miss Most On TCM: Commercials.

Out Of Touch -- Revisited -- September 27, 2020

Out of touch: this was one of my favorite posts all last week. Joanna Stern thinks multimillionaires and billionaires won't spring for the new top-of-the-line Apple Watch ($399) because it's $170 more than a refurbished Apple Watch series. I put that in perspective with a screen shot of ladies heels and men's BLM tennis shoes with their prices. Now we get even more.

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Sunday Morning Television

Don't Make Waves, introducing Sharon Tate. Based on the book, Muscle Beach, Ira Wallach, 1959.  Already many, many scenes that bring back great memories of my halcyon days in southern California. 

Wow, the Coen Brothers, in The Big Lebowski, stole a scene directly from Don't Make Waves. Amazing. Almost identical.


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Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- Devon Energy And WPX To Merge-- September 27, 2020

First things first: Devon Energy and WPX to merge. Link here. Devon to buy WPX.

  • all stock deal
  • combined: a market value of $6 billion
  • currently:
    • Devon Energy: $3.4 billion
    • WPX: $2.5 billion

Tectonic changes: I see that this post of September 25, 2020, is now trending among the top ten posts at the sidebar on the right. 

As an optimist, I could also argue that this is more evidence that we are seeing tectonic changes in the way America uses energy, that in fact, instead of suggesting a faltering economy, the metrics suggest simply a tectonic change in the way Americans learn, work, and vacation, and less about the economy.

Tectonic changes: President Obama may have been simply premature when he made that famous statement that "these jobs aren't coming back," referring to the fossil fuel energy industry. Interestingly enough that statement is now more correct than ever. 

The weekly jobless reports showing little change week after week suggests this may be true for a lot of jobs. No industry is especially immune. All companies are taking this opportunity (or are being forced to take this opportunity) to re-evaluate their strategic plans, hiring practices; corporate headquarters.

McKinsey & Company has published several studies:

  • reimagining the $9 trillion tourism economy;
  • the travel industry turned upside down;
  • five Covid-19aftershocks reshaping mobility's future;
  • make it better, not just safe; the opportunity to reinvent travel;
  • a new approach in tracking travel demand;
  • for corporate travel, a long recovery ahead:
  • hospitality and Covid-19: how long until "no vacancy" for US hotels?
  • ready for check-in? Lessons from the German travel recovery;

Or you can read Yahoo!Finance reports on same subjects. LOL.

Running out of toes and fingers:

  • Volkswagen Trucking invests in self-driving developer TuSimple, link here;
  • Huawei set to become major competition in EVs; "Anything Tesla can do, we can do better"; link here; by the way, I think this is the Achilles heel for Tesla.

Two Kraken Wells In Oliver Oil Field Come Off Confidential List This Next Week-- September 27, 2020

The wells:

  • 36978, conf,  Kraken, Hobart LW 34-27 1H, API: 33-105-05326, Oliver, fracked 2/14/2020 - 2/27/2020; 10.2 million gallons of water; 84.9% water by mass; production:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20203126242839
6-20202698430079
5-20202882032337
4-20203438519083
  • 36977, conf, Kraken, Black Federal 33-28 7H, API: 33-105-05325, Oliver, fracked 2/14/20 - 2/27/2020; 10.8 million gallons of water; 85.2% water by mass; production:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20203051440682
6-20202881033074
5-20202803332614
4-20203379518742

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The Kraken Black Federal / Hobart Wells


Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- September 27, 2020

The wells:

  • 36670, conf,  Hess, TI-Ives-157-94-0601H-8, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20201286815725
6-202077128846
5-2020106258295
4-20202275514734
  • 36264, conf, WPX, Rubia 24-13HY, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20201726655230
6-20201864522810
5-202030
4-202039911
3-2020208378964
2-20202989819690
  • 36978, conf,  Kraken, Hobart LW 34-27 1H, Oliver,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20203126242839
6-20202698430079
5-20202882032337
4-20203438519083
  • 36948, conf,  Whiting, Arndt 11-24-2H, Sanish, 
  • 34916, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-4H, Sand Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20201808657420
6-20201855659759
5-20202646176419
4-20201244730346
  • 37078, conf,  Whiting, Oddie 44-7HU, Sanish, 
  • 36977, conf, Kraken, Black Federal 33-28 7H, Oliver,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20203051440682
6-20202881033074
5-20202803332614
4-20203379518742
  • 34660, conf,  Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-1H, Sand Creek,
DateOil RunslMCF Sold
7-20201719246821
6-20202249763164
5-20202872171420
4-20201124131220
3-20200783
  • 34659, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal l44-1TFHU, Sand Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20201562236595
3-20200148
  • 34661, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-1TFH, Sand Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20201278935151
6-20202115858616
5-20203417164405
4-20201381338988
3-20200325
  • 36671, conf,  Hess, TI-Ives-157-94-0601H-9, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20202300230369
6-20201457712149
5-20201943923745
4-20203070045643
3-202033954456
  • 34662, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-2H, Sand Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20201862057574
6-20202430071309
5-20202422765097
4-20201122520024
3-20200466
  • 36949, conf, Whiting, Arndt 11-24XH, Sanish, 
  • 37016, conf, Hess, TI-Blestrud-158-94-3130H-1, Tioga,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-202000160000
BAKKEN6-2020276605923623602
BAKKEN5-2020001480000
BAKKEN4-2020211968419595316752746127088373
BAKKEN3-20206444943901010493739123250
  • 36313, conf, BR, State Dodge 1B MBH, Dimmick Lake, 
  • 34663, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-2TFH, Sand Creek,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2020211774117758163484903148596435
BAKKEN6-2020302923029225242625944759261186
BAKKEN5-2020312763027804285888034680109237
BAKKEN4-20207107321066783493327032307809
BAKKEN3-20201292009049040

New Wells Reporting 4Q20

Monday, October 5, 2020: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter, 672 for the year
None.

Sunday, October 4, 2020: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter, 672 for the year
36670, conf,  Hess, TI-Ives-157-94-0601H-8,
36264, conf, WPX, Rubia 24-13HY,

Saturday, October 3, 2020: 5 for the month; 5 for the quarter, 670 for the year
36978, conf,  Kraken, Hobart LW 34-27 1H,
36948, conf,  Whiting, Arndt 11-24-2H,
34916, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-4H,

Friday, October 2, 2020: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 667 for the year
37078, conf,  Whiting, Oddie 44-7HU,
36927, conf, Kraken, Black Federal 33-28 7H,

Thursday, October 1, 2020: 0 for the month; 0 for the quarter, 665 for the year
None.

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Data for 4Q20: This Page
Data for 3Q20: 3Q20
Data for 2Q20: 2Q20
Data for 1Q20: 1Q20
Data for 4Q19: 4Q19
Data for 3Q19:  3Q19
Data for 2Q19: 2Q19
Data for 1Q19: 1Q19
Data for 4Q18: 4Q18
Data for 3Q18: 3Q18
Data for 2Q18: 2Q18
Data for 1Q18: 1Q18
Data for 4Q17: 4Q17
Data for 3Q17: 3Q17
Data for 4Q16: 4Q16
Data for 3Q16: 3Q16
Data for 2Q16: 2Q16
Data for 1Q16: 1Q16
Data for 4Q15: 4Q15
Data for 3Q15: 3Q15
Data for 2Q15: 2Q15
Data for 1Q15: 1Q15
Data for 4Q14: 4Q14
Data for 3Q14: 3Q14
Data for 2Q14: 2Q14
Data for 1Q14: 1Q14
Data for 4Q13: 4Q13
Data for 3Q13: 3Q13
Data for 2Q13: 2Q13
Data for 1Q13: 1Q13
Data for 4Q12: 4Q12
Data for 3Q12: 3Q12
Data for 2Q12: 2Q12
  Data for 1Q12: 1Q12   
Data for 4Q11: 4Q11 
Data for 3Q11: 3Q11 
Data for 2Q11: 2Q11 
 Data for 1Q11: 1Q11  
 Data for 2H10: 2H10 
Through 1H10: 1H10


Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- September 27, 2020

Monday, October 5, 2020: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter, 672 for the year
None.

Sunday, October 4, 2020: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter, 672 for the year
36670, conf,  Hess, TI-Ives-157-94-0601H-8,
36264, conf, WPX, Rubia 24-13HY,

Saturday, October 3, 2020: 5 for the month; 5 for the quarter, 670 for the year
36978, conf,  Kraken, Hobart LW 34-27 1H,
36948, conf,  Whiting, Arndt 11-24-2H,
34916, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-4H,

Friday, October 2, 2020: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 667 for the year
37078, conf,  Whiting, Oddie 44-7HU,
36977, conf, Kraken, Black Federal 33-28 7H,

Thursday, October 1, 2020: 0 for the month; 0 for the quarter, 665 for the year
None.

Wednesday, September 30, 2020: 148 for the month; 219 for the quarter, 665 for the year
34660, conf,  Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-1H,
34659, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal l44-1TFHU,

Tuesday, September 29, 2020: 146 for the month; 217 for the quarter, 663 for the year
34661, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-1TFH,

Monday, September 28, 2020: 145 for the month; 216 for the quarter, 662 for the year
36671, conf,  Hess, TI-Ives-157-94-0601H-9,
34662, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-2H,

Sunday, September 27, 2020: 143 for the month; 214 for the quarter, 660 for the year
36949, conf, Whiting, Arndt 11-24XH,

Saturday, September 26, 2020: 142 for the month; 213 for the quarter, 659 for the year
37016, conf, Hess, TI-Blestrud-158-94-3130H-1,
36313, conf, BR, State Dodge 1B MBH,
34663, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-2TFH,

Saturday, September 26, 2020

The XTO Bobcat Federal Wells, Bear Creek

The Bobcat Federal wells are tracked here

 The wells:

  • 34356, 1,305, XTO, Bobcat Federal 14X-35A, Bear Creek, t6/19; cum 470K 6/20; F; for early production: link here
  • 34358, 30 (no typo), XTO, Bobcat Federal 14X-35EXH, Bear Creek, 60 stages, 12.0 million lbs, t5/19; cum 413K 6/20; for early production: link here;

Look at those numbers.

Drilled/completed/tested in May / June of 2019.

A year later: almost 500 million bbls. 

It should be noted that these wells are "extended" long laterals -- three sections long -- which, explains, to some extent, the large amount of water, but, still, a huge amount of water. 

From a reader:

When you first posted the numbers of the XTO wells on August 22, I was struck by several numbers, especially the amount of frac water pumped (830,000 bbls and 585,000 barrels) as well as the exceptionally  long 'flowback/produced water' time frame and amounts recovered.
While I will immediately  follow with a somewhat clumsy, detailed explanation of what XTO has accomplished with these two completions, suffice to say that XTO has developed a way to pump VAST amounts of high pressure fluid underground in a CONTROLLED fashion.

Furthermore, the chemistry of these new fluids/water allows extended underground retention without damaging the formation.  
(In years past, fluid imbibing (softening) of the rock and/or leaving a production-inhibiting coating/skin necessitated a relatively quick removal of the frac fluid in the weeks immediately  following the fracturing). 
This extended period - several months - of maintaining the induced water underground enables the higher hydraulic pressure to push more oil into the wellbore.

Will follow up with explanation of the significance of effectively pumping ~35 million gallons underground.

Seven wells on that pad:

  • 34355, 176, XTO, Bobcat Federal 14X-35E2, Bear Creek, t4/19; cum 169K 7/20;
  • 34356, above,
  • 34357, 10 (no typo), XTO, Bobcat Federal 14X-35AXB, Bear Creek, t5/19; cum 318K 7/20;
  • 34358, above,
  • 34559, 83, XTO, Bobcat Federal 11X-2F2-S, Bear Creek, t5/19; cum 108K 7/20; 20 stages; 4 million lbs; Three Forks 2;
  • 34359, 456, XTO, Bobcat Federal 11X-2A-S, Bear Creek, t4/19; cum 84K 7/20; middle Bakken; 20 stages; 6 million lbs proppant;
  • 34360, 83, XTO, Bobcat Federal 11X-2E-S, Bear Creek, t5/19; cum 45K 7/20; Three Forks, 20 stages, 4 million lbs;
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Movie Night

Sunset Boulevard.

Back To Coal In 2035? -- September 26, 2020

Why natural gas prices are set to soar. Link to Tsetvana Paraskova.

As the country pivots from nuclear energy to wind and solar, there will be a huge demand for natural gas, and dare I say it, but possibly, coal, also. And that's before California bans gasoline-powered automobiles in 2035.

By the way, switching to 100% nuclear on the west coast (0% for wind/solar) the risk of forest fires from transmission lines such as the west experienced this year (2020) would trend toward zero.

Link here.


Slawson's Submariner / Osprey Wells Updated -- 22-151-92 / 26-151-92 -- West Of The River -- September 26, 2020

The wells:

  • 32271, conf, Slawson, Submariner Federal 10-23-20TF2H, Big Bend,
  • 32272, 1,927, Slawson, Submariner Federal 2-23-20H, Big Bend, t6/19; cum 193K 1/20; offline 2/20; remains off line 7/20; a 36K month;
  • 32273, 797, Slawson, Submariner Federal 7-23-20TFH, Big Bend, t6/19; cum 134K 1/20; off line 2/20; remains off line 7/20; 30K over 19 days extrapolates to 47K bbls crude oil;
  • 32274, 2,117, Slawson, Submariner Federal 2SLH, Big Bend, t6/19; cum 165K 2/20; off line 3/20; maybe coming back on line 7/20;
  • 32275, conf, Slawson, Submariner Federal 10 SLTF2H, Big Bend,
  • 32276 433, Slawson, Submariner Federal 4-26-35MLH, Big Bend, t6/19; cum 94K 3/20; offline 4/20; remains off line 7/20; a 21K month;
  • 32277, 1,454, Slawson Goblin Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, t9/19; cum 148K 3/20; off line 4/40; remains off line 7/20; a 29K month;
  • 32278, conf, Slawson Goblin Federal 9 SLTF2H, Big Bend,


  • 36254, conf, Osprey Federal 8-26-29TF2H, Big Bend, 
  • 36253, conf, Osprey Federal 4-26-29TFH, Big Bend, 
  • 36252, ros/conf, Osprey Federal 2-26-29H, Big Bend, 
  • 36251, conf, Osprey Federal 5-26-29TFH, Big Bend, 
  • 36250, conf, Osprey Federal 3-26-29H, Big Bend, 
  • 36249, conf, Osprey Federal 9-26-29TF2H, Big Bend, 

The Graphics:

 


Week 39: September 20, 2020 -- September 26, 2020

Top story of the week:

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota stories:

  • NDIC tweaks natural gas capture policy: goal -- encourage investment;
  • Tax credits will pay for Minnkota's carbon capture program
  • Several stories on divergent opinions on Covid-19 between citizens / leaders

Operators:

Operations:

500K club:

Fracking:

New pool:

Busy, Busy, Busy -- I'll Get Back To These Graphics When I Get Caught Up -- September 26, 2020

See this post for the wells.

The Graphics:

 


********************************
Thank You, Alexa

Another song I would have missed had it not been for Alexa. Thank you.

Come On Home, John Prince

Notes From All Over -- September 26, 2020

After thirty years in LA, Canyon Partners will move to Texas. Cites high taxes, congestion. Link here

GM brake failure: the brake failure / "stop-delivery order" story from yesterday? Turns out this has happened before. I missed it.

Chevrolet spokesman Kevin Kelly told Motor Authority a material used in a sensor connection in the electronic brake boost system of these vehicles may have been contaminated during the material supplier’s production process. This could cause an interruption of communication between the sensor and brake boost system under certain conditions.
I still don't know how one corrects a "contamination" problem with a software fix. Whatever. But it turns out this has happened before. Same ol', same ol', I guess.

Mixed messages:

NHL: Lightning defeats Dallas. One game away.

Spanish app: Sophia's favorite educational app -- the one we downloaded for Spanish from the Apple App store, apparently the number one language app out there. It's not Rosetta Stone. Another example of how in the world did something like Rosetta Stone drop the ball. To be fair, Rosetta Stone is apparently doing very, very well and generally makes the top ten lists. I've been reading reviews comparing the two. One reviewer gave the Spanish app that Sophia uses a "thumbs down" because ..... drum roll .... it's too addictive. LOL. Sophia loves it. She's addicted to it. As soon as she comes over she wants to do her Spanish lesson on "her" iPad kept at the apartment. 

Wiki: speaking of which. How did Encyclopedia Britannica drop the ball?

Making macaroni and cheese during the lock down.

It Appears Pemex Was A Bit Overly Optimistic -- Hitting Targets A Year Early -- September 26, 2020

North Dakota crude oil production, November, 2019: 1.52 million bopd. Link here.

Pemex slashes target, September 10, 2020: 1.857 million bopd in 2021. Link here.

Just in! Pemex meets target, September 26, 2020: 1.58 million bopd, down 4% yoy. Link here.

Wells That Deserve A Closer Look -- September 25, 2020

 The wells:

  • 33014, 3,426, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-7, Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum 346K 7/20;  
  • 33395, 2,878, WPX, Hidatsa North 14-23HB, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum 415K 7/20; 
  • 34484, 6,504, MRO, Yellowface USA 13-23H, Reunion Bay, check FracFocus, (#19446 -- AB); t9/18; cum 443K7/20; 
  • 33394, 2,783, WPX, Hidatsa North 14-23C, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum 421K 7/20; 
  • 33393, 3,242, WPX, Hidatsa North 14-23HD, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 410K 7/20;

Friday, September 25, 2020

The Two Best Metrics As Proxies For US Economy? -- September 25, 2020

Natural gas:

Gasoline demand:

Clearing Off The Desk -- Screenshots Taken, Not Used -- September 25, 2020

Natural gas:

Duolingo:

The Twilight Zone:

I made the same point just the other: folks given the privilege of a "lifetime appointment, have a responsibility to retire gracefully." She became a parody of herself as the years dragged on.


A Huge "Thank You" To Readers -- September 25, 2020

I'm always embarrassed by the number of trivial typographical errors I make throughout the day on all my posts. Errors with regard to "content" are much fewer but they do occur. 

But with regard to typographical errors, a big "thank you" to readers for not "nickel-and-dime-ing" me with e-mail pointing out non-substantive typographical errors. I generally find most of them and correct them. To me, it's more important that I get information posted as quickly as possible and worry about typographical errors later. 

This turned out to be a busier week than I had expected. I'm not sure if I will post much more tonight but tomorrow, "Top Stories." 

Good luck to all.

Just A Software Fix -- GM's "Stop-Delivery Order" -- September 25, 2020

Just a software fix? 2020 GM Cadillacs, Corvettes, Buick Encore GX, and 2021Chevy Trailblazers -- under a "stop-delivery order." Link here.

The 2020 Chevrolet Corvette and a number of other General Motors products are confirmed to have an issue with brake sensor contamination in its brake-by-wire system. The Corvette Action Center initially broke the news, and also says the Corvette and others are under a "stop-delivery" order because of it. GM confirmed the issue, but it did not confirm the “stop-delivery” order to us explicitly.

Atlantic Bridge Project, Enbridge: given FERC approval, today, Friday, September 25, 2020. Link here.  Weymouth Compressor Station approved. Necessary for distribution of natural gas within New England and Canadian Maritimes. Will not be involved with natural gas exports.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$40.25
9/25/202009/25/201909/25/201809/25/201709/25/2016
Active Rigs1159665833

Two new permits:

  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail County)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for two wells in Lot 3, section 5-150-93; 302' FNL and 1844/1889' FWL; (45 feet from each other); Reunion Bay;

Three permits renewed:

  • EOG (2): two Clearwater permits, both in Mountrail County;
  • Sinclair: a Bighorn permit in Dunn County