Monday, August 31, 2020

Levi Sap Nei Thang -- The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- August 31, 2020

I have no idea if any of these links relate to the Levi Sap Nei Thang, successful bidder of several tracts in most recent North Dakota oil and gas quarterly leases, or if there is more than one Levi Sap Nei Thang.

Google: Levi Sap Nei Thang Oil and gas 

Many PDFs that I did not link including this screenshot from one unlinked pdf:

By the way, that PDF also connected another "dot" with regard to the recent ND oil and gas quarterly leases: Myint Myint Swe. See this link.

Links:

NDIC Quarterly Lease Sale Results -- August, 2020

For the August, 2020, nominations, see this post

Results of the August, 2020, ND lease sales, link here. Summary below.

For more on Levi Sap Nei Thang, see this post. Also, at that same post, look at the screenshot/photograph and see the connection to Myint.

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors, but it gives one a pretty good idea of what's going on with leases in the Bakken.  

Billings County:

  • 29 tracts
  • Bidders: most were Northern Energy Corp; then NP Resources, LLC; others: Levi Sap Nei Thang;
  • Most tracts: 160 acres; several 80-acre tracts;
  • Bonuses: most in the low teens, below $10; highest, a 160-acre tract with a bonus of $28/acre

Burke County:

  • 57 tracts +/-
  • Bidders: North Energy Corp; Levi Sap Nei Thang; Angie Kennard; Okreek Oil and Gas LLC; Myint Myint Swe; Rockall Energy; Iron Horse Royalties;
  • Most tracts: 80 acres; several 160-acre tracts;
  • Bonuses: most below $30; many in teens or lower; highest bid was $51/acre for a 4-acre tract Angie Kennard;

Divide County:

  • 87 tracts
  • Bidders: Okreek Oil and Gas, LLC; Northern Energy Corp; Levi Sap Nei Thang; Anderson Oil Ltd; Norra Resources; Lynx Oil Company; La Brea Minerals, LLC;
  • Tracts: mostly 80-acre tracts;
  • Bonuses: most in the $30 - $50 range; highest big, an 80-acre tract for $82/acre; Lynx Oil Company;

Dunn County:

  • 28 tracts
  • Bidders: Iron Horse Royalties, LLC; Okreek Oil and Gas LLC; Levi Sap Nei Thang; Lynx Oil Company; Northern  Energy Corporation; Woodstone Resources, LLC;
  • Tracts: mostly 80-acre tracts;
  • Bonuses: $20 - $50; highest bid, $87/acre for an 80-acre tract; Lynx Oil Company;

McKenzie County:

  • 51 tracts;
  • Bidders: Buffalo Holdings, LLC; Okreek Oil and Gas, LLC; Anderson Oil Ltd; Yockim Resource Exploration Co.; La Brea Minerals, LLC; Empire Oil Company; NP Resources, LLC; North Range Resources, LLC; Levi Sap Nei Thang;
  • Tracts: mostly 160-acre tracts
  • Bonuses: $50 - $150; highest bid, $302/acre; a 118-acre tract; Buffalo Holdings, LLC;

Mountrail County:

  • 33 tracts
  • Bidders: Lynx Oil Company; La Brea Minerals, LLC; Northern Energy Corp; Okreek Oil and Gas, LLC; Iron Horse Royalties, LLC; Norra Resources; The Triple T, Inc.;
  • Tracts: 40-acre to 160-acre; quite a variation in size of tracts;
  • Bonuses: mostly $150 - $300; highest bid, $334/acre; a 40-acre tract; Lynx Oil Company;

Williams County:

  • 6 tracts
  • Bidders: Northern Energy Corporation; Okreek Oil and Gas, LLC;
  • Tracts: four 160-acre tracts and two 80-acre tracts
  • Bonuses: $70 - $168; highest big, $168/acre, Okreek Oil and Gas, LLC for a 160-acre tract

For Investors, Tomorrow, The Big Story: Microsoft, Walmart, TikTok -- August 31, 2020

'Nuf said.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

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OXY Warrants

Although they recovered a bit by the end of the day, OXY warrants hit a new intra-day low earlier today: $2.91.

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On Another Note

A reader suggested I watch this tomorrow afternoon:

... if I don't forget.

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Ya Think?

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Sophia Teaches Me How To Cut Herself A Brownie
 


Chinese And Saudi Oil Giants Book Mammoth Losses -- Oilprice -- August 31, 2020


Link here

The first two quarters of the current year have been brutal to U.S. oil and gas companies. According to Refintiv data, the energy sector has recorded the lowest Q2 2020 earnings growth rate (-168.5 percent) of any U.S. sector with earnings clocking in at -$10.5B vs. $15.3B in the year-ago comparable quarter. That's far worse than the S&P 500 average earnings growth rate of -19.1 percent when you exclude the energy sector. As expected, oilfield service companies operating in the Shale Patch have been faring worse than most thanks to huge capex cuts by producers.

But U.S. shale producers can take some comfort in the fact that their counterparts elsewhere have not been doing much better.

Saudi and Chinese oil and gas giants have been booking massive losses, too, proving that Covid-19 is a pandemic of equal opportunity.

In the first half of 2020, Saudi oil revenue plummeted by 42.6 percent year-on-year to SAR 224.73 billion ($60.68B), compared to SAR 391.3 billion ($105.65B) for last year's corresponding period. April and May recorded the biggest revenue slumps at 65.4 percent and 66.1 percent, respectively, to SAR 24 billion ($6.48B) and SAR 23.87 billion ($6.44B), respectively.

Net profit at Saudi Aramco (ARMCO) slumped 73 percent to 24.6B riyals ($6.57B) in Q2 vs. estimates of 31.3B riyals. But unlike BP Plc. (NYSE:BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A), which cut their dividends in recent months, the majority state-owned company maintained its Q2 dividend of $18.75B. Aramco plans to cut 2020 capex to a range of $20-$25B in 2020 in order to pay the$75B dividend it pledged to investors during its IPO.

China--the world's largest oil importer-- has been importing less from Saudi Arabia as it boosts imports from the U.S., ostensibly in a bid to fulfill its obligations for the January trade deal.
Much more at the link.

US Ethane Production Hits Record -- ArgusMedia -- August 31, 2020

We used to talk about ethane a lot. We even had a tag for ethane. Then, all of a sudden, crickets.

Until today. From ArgusMedia: US ethane production hits new record -- EIA.

US ethane field production rose to a record high in June as producers moved to recover more product late in the second quarter.

Ethane output rose to 2.1mn b/d, a 14 percent increase from the prior record 1.8mn b/d produced in May and a 16pc increase from the previous June, the Energy Information Administration reported today in its monthly data.

Production fell sharply in March and April as shut-in natural gas wells reduced output of associated gas. By late May, rising prices supported recovery of more ethane from the gas stream. Mont Belvieu, Texas, EPC ethane averaged 12.97¢/USG in April, before rising to 22.36¢/USG in May and 21.88¢/USG in June.

Ethane inventories also rose, climbing to 52mn bl in June, up 9 percent from the previous month, but a 14 percent drop from the 60mn bl reported in June 2019. June ethane exports of 308,000 b/d were up by 3 percent from May and up by 12 percent from June last year.

More at the link.

Crescent Energy With Two New Permits -- August 31, 2020

Active rigs:

$42.61
8/31/202008/31/201908/31/201808/31/201708/31/2016
Active Rigs1064635533

Two new permits, #37816 - #37817, inclusive:

  • Operator: Crescent Point Energy
  • Field: Rainbow
  • Comments:
    • Crescent Point has permits for two wells, Dorothy/Dois, in NENE 30-158-98, 400' FNL and about 840' FEL;

It appears that NDIC did not post the August 31, 2020, daily activity report. At least not yet.


Fossil Fuels Are Here To Stay -- August 31, 2020

Re-posting as a stand-alone post:

Best Monday morning article to read, and lo and behold, it's also over at Oilprice. This link and excerpts will be posted as a stand-alone post. The oilprice article links to the most recent IEA report, titled Key World Energy Statistics, 2020. Bottom line: the headline over at Oilprice says it all. Archived.

Some excerpts:

Let’s take a look at consumption, for example. Crude oil accounted for 48.2 percent of final energy consumption globally in 1973. Forty-five years and huge renewable energy advancements later, crude oil’s share in total final energy consumption had fallen by a meager 8.6 percentage points to 40.8 percent.

This is not a lot, even if we acknowledge that the drive to cut emissions started a lot later than the early 70s, so renewables have had less than 45 years to stake their claim as an alternative to fossil fuels. Speaking of which, coal’s share in the mix only fell by 3.6 percentage points in the 45-year period, to 10 percent of the total in 2018.

And this:

Meanwhile, the share of electricity in this mix, thanks to renewables, went up from 9.4 percent to 19.3 percent, which is certainly impressive growth, especially given the abovementioned unequal start. But is it enough?

Let’s look at the total energy supply. In 1973, crude oil accounted for 46.2 percent of the global energy supply. Gas accounted for 16 percent, and coal accounted for 24.5 percent. A category dubbed “Other” (excluding hydro, biofuels and biomass, and nuclear) accounted for 0.1 percent.

Fast forward 45 years, and we have crude oil accounting for 31.6 percent of the total energy supply, gas accounting for 22.8 percent, and coal, somewhat surprisingly, rising to 26.9 percent. Meanwhile, the “Other” category has risen to 2 percent of the total. But so has total energy supply, and not by a small percentage, either. Between 1973 and 2018, global energy supply rose from 6,089 million tons of oil equivalent to more than 14,000 million tons of oil equivalent as the world’s population grew and became more affluent, driving energy demand up.

It is hardly a surprise, then, that emissions have been rising, although the distribution of “responsibility” among the three fossil fuels has changed. Back in 1973, oil was the biggest emitter, accounting for 49.9 percent of the total, with gas accounting for 14.4 percent, and coal for 35.7 percent. In 2018, probably thanks to energy efficiency and the rising share of gas in electricity generation, among other things, the share of oil in total emissions fell to 43.1 percent. Meanwhile, however, coal’s share rose 44 percent, and the share of gas went up to 21.1 percent. What this suggests is what we already know: fossil fuels are cheap, which is why they are often preferred not just in regions that cannot afford to invest in wind and solar but in the world’s largest renewables investor, China, along with most other countries. And while solar and wind are getting cheaper, their reliability remains a problem, which has only recently begun to receive the attention it deserves in the form of a focus on not just generation capacity but also on storage.

Considering the source, a pretty good article. But note that the ultimate source if the IEA (sort of the WHO of the energy world). 

Notes From All Over -- COB Edition -- August 31, 2020

Zoom Video Communications:
  • already has one-half the entire video conference market
  • IPO only one year ago
  • anyone want to ask what ZM's P/E is? how ZM's P/E compares to AAPL's?
    • ZM with a P/E nearing 2,000 (no typo; nearing 2,000)
    • AAPL with a P/E of 39 (it was all of 35 pre-split announcement; iPhone 12 yet to launch;
    • SBUX with a P/E of 75, twice that of AAPL -- which could you live without? Apple telecommunications or coffee bought at a drive-through for $3.73/cup?
  • two competitors:
    • WebEx: the app Sophia uses at her school; having some issues with video on occasion;
    • Microsoft Teams: said to be "buggy"; based old software (that does not surprise me)

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Hamas: no longer getting financial support from Saudi Arabia --

McDonald's: lots of social medial chatter about ex-CEO's sexual misconduct. This is my question. This guy did not just happen to graduate from high school and become the McDonalds CEO. Men with history of sexual harassment / sexual predation do not suddenly pop out. If the accusations are correct, then there has to be some history. How was this missed for years? How did he get away with this all these years? At McDonald's and elsewhere? Again, if the stories are accurate. Just asking some questions. Something doesn't make sense. 

About time: end of "change fees" by the airlines. They say United went first. In fact, SWA (LUV) never had "change fees" as far as I know. Whatever. United went first. Delta followed. then American Airlines. About time. This was an egregious fee. Can't wait until they get rid of the baggage fees. 


Going, going gone:

Coming to a town near you:

Commuting Americans -- Where Do We Stand? -- August 31, 2020

Depending on "how you count the months," it's either been eight months or five months since the lock downs began. 

Re-posting:

We'll get the latest US gasoline demand numbers later, but from the PR Newswire: 61 million Americans have stopped commuting due to Covid-19. Link here. Only one in four are back to their regular commutes as of August, 2020.

Spin-offs:

  • fewer tires bought; fewer batteries replaced; less maintenance overall
  • fewer fender-benders; fewer deer hit; fewer windshield chips due to thrown gravel;
  • lower insurance rates;
  • lower automobile repair rates; less money paid out of pocket for deductibles;
  • lower gasoline demand:
    • excess gasoline leads to lower prices per gallon
    • less driving leads to fewer gallons bought
  • parking garages in major cities noting decreased revenue;
  • less congestion in major cities (and fear of mass transit) leading some older adults to buy their first car ever;
  • less shopping and less dining out overall (mostly due to lockdowns but also people less inclined to drive in the first place)
  • folks will put off new-car purchases until they really need a new car;
  • car sales way down;

Post-Hurricane Laura -- August 31, 2020

 Sabine re-start, link here:

  • Cheniere Energy and Cheniere Energy Partners say a comprehensive facility and operational assessment of the Sabine Pass Liquefaction facility and pipeline assets revealed no significant damage from Hurricane Laura. 
  • Bechtel, Cheniere's EPC contractor, is returning today to Sabine Pass to resume work constructing Train 6 and on the Third Berth project
  • Also, Sempra Energy reports no catastrophic wind damage at its Cameron LNG export facility in Louisiana and "minimal" flooding at the site of its proposed Port Arthur LNG terminal in Texas. 
  • Gulf Coast energy facilities braced for "catastrophic" damage from the hurricane but averted worst-case scenarios. 

US LNG export facilities are tracked here.

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Gasoline Demand

We'll get the latest US gasoline demand numbers later, but from the PR Newswire: 61 million Americans have stopped commuting due to Covid-19. Link here. Only one in four are back to their regular commutes as of August, 2020.

The earliest we will see a vaccine? 2Q21.

Pop-Eyes, Sling-Blade Style -- August 30, 2020

Buffett, airlines, and AAPL: I remember the incredibly "bad" article that an analyst wrote back in April, or thereabouts, saying Buffett panicked when he sold his airline stocks earlier this year. What a joke. I post this spreadsheet every so often. Had Buffett kept his airline stocks, between March 31, 2020, and today, August 31, 2020, he would have "made" $250 million. By selling his airline shares (in all four companies) and buying AAPL instead, he would have made $3.2 billion. And, on top of that, he would be holding "more" AAPL shares and no airline stocks. What would you rather have today: shares in AAPL or shares in AAL?

August 31, 2020

Airline

Shr Price: 3/31/2020

Dollars: 3/31/2020

Shares

Shr Price: August 31, 2020

Total: August 31, 2020


DAL

28.53

675,000,000

23,659,306

31.05

734,621,451


UAL

31.55

675,000,000

21,394,612

36.18

774,057,052


AAL

12.19

675,000,000

55,373,257

13.15

728,158,326


SWA (LUV)

35.61

675,000,000

18,955,350

37.86

717,649,537




2,700,000,000



2,954,486,367




 



 


AAPL

254.29

2,700,000,000

10,617,799

458.43

4,867,517,401














1,913,031,035







 














2,954,486,367







64.75%








March 24, 2020


224


10,617,799


2,378,386,881

8/31/2020


523.04


10,617,799


5,553,533,367







3,175,146,486

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Father Knows Best

This clip will mean nothing to you unless you've seen Sling Blade or are familiar with the movie. There are a series of video clips in which a father films himself and his family going through various drive-through fast food restaurants and he orders "Sling Blade" style. 

This particular clip is particularly precious. Watch the reaction of his older daughter in the back seat, behind her mother, when the father takes off his cap and sunglasses in preparation for what is about to follow. 

I'll bet you will watch this clip -- at least the beginning -- more than once.

Pop-Eyes, Sling-Blade Style

Tell Me Again "Splits Don't Matter" -- AAPLSurges -- August 31, 2020

AAPL: up over $15/share in pre-split "dollars." Later, now AAPL is up almost $18/share in pre-split "dollars." This may be one of the biggest one-day gains for AAPL ever. That was around 10:30 a.m. CDT. Tell me again, CNBC, splits don't matter. LOL.

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Three New Airlines: Covid-19 Not A Threat

New airline, called "Prime Air": third company in US given FAA approval to deliver commercial packages by drone beyond-line-of-sight. UPS given this approval a year ago (October 1, 2019). Google also has approval. First drone flight beyond the operator's sight line to receive FAA approval, University of Alaska Fairbanks, August 2, 2019, Reuters. The three new airlines:

  • Wing Aviation: Alphabet / Google (Bloomberg says Wing Aviation, LLC, was the first to get FAA approval for these drones;
  • UPS Flight Forward (link here)
  • Prime Air: Amazon; goal -- 30-minute delivery (yes, I hate waiting all day for the gel pens I ordered this morning for Sophia; ordered at 0930; will arrive sometime later today;

Of the three, if that's the correct name, "Amazon Air," Amazon has the best name of the three. This makes it all easier when the government steps in and demands the break-up of these huge companies in a last-ditch effort to save the USPS in 2035 

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TutorTime or Rodeo Drive (Hollywood, CA)

Sophia and I skipped TutorTime today to go shopping on Rodeo Drive, Hollywood, CA.

Parking Garages Empty In NYC -- The Wall Street Journal -- August 30, 2020

 Re-posting:

Another Covid casualty: parking garages idle as car owners pull out of NYC. Former monthly customers are calling and canceling permanently saying they are leaving the city. Most interesting "thing" about this story: it's not in some ZeroHedge hyped article: this is in the conservative, well-trusted WSJ. Amazing.  

From the linked article:

Manhattan parking-garage operators say they have lost thousands of monthly customers as many residents packed up their cars and moved out of New York City during the new coronavirus pandemic. 

“People are calling and canceling permanently saying they are leaving the city,” said Rafael Llopiz, president of the Metropolitan Parking Association, whose members often charge upward of $500 a month for a spot.

Mr. Llopiz said almost all of the parking-association members’ monthly business is residential. Of the 82,000 monthly customers who usually patronize the trade group’s garages, Mr. Llopiz said only 33,000 spaces were filled by mid-August.

Look at the numbers:

Mr. Llopiz said monthly business is usually down about 5% in August. This August it is down 60%.

Many car owners drove out of the city after the pandemic struck New York in March to stay with family or at second or rented homes. Now, with many school parents opting for remote learning and employers delaying the return to the office until the new year, some residents have decided to remain out of the city.

But there's much more at the story. Buried in the story: mass transit is dead.

The pandemic has prompted some New Yorkers to buy a car for the first time.

Emiley Jellie bought a 2019 Volkswagen Golf Alltrack in May after a decade living in the city without a vehicle. She also found a garage that is a 10-minute walk from her apartment in Manhattan’s Chelsea neighborhood. The rate of $350 a month seemed so good that she paid for the year in advance.

Ms. Jellie, who is 32, used the car on weekends. She visited friends in the suburbs and drove to the countryside for hikes. She even took a road trip to Tennessee to see the Great Smoky Mountains.

Ms. Jellie assumed she would return to her office at a major bank before Labor Day. But in July, when it became clear that the return would be postponed, she got in her car and drove to her family’s second home in Bonita Springs, FL

Notes From All Over -- Pre-Market Edition -- August 31, 2020

First things first: market open. AAPL up $2.40 on post-split pricing. Up $9.60 on pre-split price. Trading at $127.20 or almost $510, pre-split. Most tech stocks down in early morning trading; not true for AAPL. AAPL is now (8:42 a.m. CDT) up over $3.00/share or up over $12/share pre-split price, trading near $128 or $512, pre-split. [Pretty funny: now CNBC says stock splits matter. LOL.]

The new Dow 30: all three new components (CRM, HON, and AMGN) down in early morning trading on first day (?) with these new components.

Another Covid casualty: parking garages idle as car owners pull out of NYC. Former monthly customers are calling and canceling permanently saying they are leaving the city. Most interesting "thing" about this story: it's not in some ZeroHedge hyped article: this is in the conservative, well-trusted WSJ. Amazing. 

The market: maybe we'll come back to this later. I posted some early numbers earlier. Pre-market Dow is very volatile, flipping from red to green and back. I think it has to do with WMT and MSFT on the Dow and what is going on with TikTok, and the new components: HON, AMGN, and CRM (especially the latter).

Dividends: Chevron, EPD -- Motley Fool, July 26, 2020. Enbridge is in the mix: earnings date linked through this site. IIRCC: earnings came in at expectations; no surprises.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

GE shares: huge drop; big analyst pulls out. 

Bitcoin: energy consumption continues to grow. Oilprice.

Where rigs  count: the North Sea. And now it's being reported that "North Sea oil" faces a drilling rig supply crunch -- driving up prices. Oilprice

Splits: wow, there must be a large number of folks that don't understand splits (which I doubt); CNBC continues to spend an inordinate amount of time on the AAPL and TSLA split. This SeekingAlpha article will probably disappear behind a paywall eventually: more chatter about stock splits.

Best Monday morning article to read, and lo and behold, it's also over at Oilprice. This link and excerpts will be posted as a stand-alone post. The oilprice article links to the most recent IEA report, titled Key World Energy Statistics, 2020. Bottom line: the headline over at Oilprice says it all. Archived.

Housing surge yet to come: this is an interesting article from The WSJ: coronavirus has left banks with lots of cash and little to do with it. One way to "spend" all that money: residential real estate.

Dow 30: all things being equal, one would assume the index would be down today simply because the index is price-weighted and AAPL has dropped from $500/share to $125/share overnight. That will affect the Dow, but it won't affect value of AAPL, per se.

Two Oil And Gas Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- August 31, 2020

Tick tock; WMT, MSFT very, very volatile today. Overnight, the word on the street: TikTok sale dead. Now, just before the market opens, the word on the street: a TikTok sale is very, very close to being announced, as early as tomorrow.

AAPL: up about a percent post-split; first day of trading at post-split price.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$43.26
8/31/202008/31/201908/31/201808/31/201708/31/2016
Active Rigs1064635533

Wells coming off confidential list -- 

Monday, August 31, 2020:

  • None.

Sunday, August 30, 2020:

  • None.

Saturday, August 29, 2020: 81 for the month; 152 for the quarter, 598 for the year

  • 35928, drl/IA,  CLR, Jamestown Federal 11-17H, Banks, t--; cum 31K over 3 months;
  • 33947, drl/NC, MRO, Prior USA42-8TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, no production data,
  • 90476, drl/IA,  KODA Resources, Stout 29 SWD 1, Fertile Valley, salt water disposal well; non-producing;

RBN Energy: spare capacity finally opens up on Canada's oil pipelines, part 2.  

In May of this year, Western Canada’s oil production shut-ins due to weak demand and poor pricing were estimated to have peaked near 1 MMb/d, resulting in a 20% drop from the near-record production levels reached only a few months earlier.

The magnitude of the production fall in such a short period of time caused a significant drop in the utilization of pipelines that transport crude oil from Alberta to other parts of Canada and the U.S.

All of a sudden, pipelines that had been heavily rationing their capacity over the past couple of years to accommodate steadily rising production suddenly had ample spare capacity. With those supplies now on the road to recovery, pipelines have begun to fill some of that extra space and are moving toward rationing capacity once again.

Today, we continue our review of Western Canadian production and takeaway capacity with a look at how this spring’s production cuts affected the region’s biggest pipelines.

The saga of the crude oil pipelines that transport Canada’s production to market has had many twists and turns. With increasing supplies the past few years outstripping available pipeline capacity, a number of large capacity expansions have been proposed, but they have been frequently stymied by regulatory and legal roadblocks on both sides of the U.S./Canada border.

Sunday, August 30, 2020

Focus On Fracking Has Posted -- August 30, 2020

Link here.  Yes, it was a very slow news week. This is always one of my favorite sections of the weekly update (minor editing):

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing 14,712,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending August 21, 2020. 
That is 225,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil they used during the prior week. 
Over the same period, the EIA's surveys indicated that a net of 922,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US. Based on that "reported & estimated data," this week's crude oil figures from the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from storage, and from oilfield production was 438,000 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week
To account for that disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a (+438,000) barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet to make the reported data for the average daily supply of oil and the data for the average daily consumption of it balance out. 
Essentially, this is a fudge factor that the EIA labels in their footnotes as "unaccounted for crude oil,"thus suggesting an error or errors of that magnitude in the oil supply & demand figures we have just transcribed.
With last week's fudge factor at -421,000, that means our week-over-week comparisons on oil supply & demand changes are off by almost twice as much, even as we continue to report them as an indicator of what most oil traders and analysts believe happened, since that's what affects their behavior.

Much, much more at the link. Most interesting is the section on distillate production and inventory. Just a snippet:

Our supplies of distillate fuels increased for the seventeenth time in 32 weeks and for the 22nd time in 47 weeks
After this week's inventory increase, our distillate supplies were 31.7% above the what we had in storage on August 23, 2019, and about 24% above the five year average of distillates stocks for this time of the year.
Staggering. And it doesn't make sense. Why are refiners continuing to produce so much distillate fuel?

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Seven Spanish Angels, Chris & Morgane Stapleton, Dwight Yoakam

AAPL, TSLA: Dominant Stories On CNBC Monday, August 31, 2020

Later:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

First numbers. Futures, Sunday evening, 6:00 p.m. EDT:

  • Dow: up 82 points
  • S&P 500: up 9 points
  • NASDAQ: up 18 points; later: up 42 points -- now over 12,000;
  • AAPL, close, Friday: $500 / 4 = $125
  • TSLA, close, Friday, $2,200 / 5 = $440
In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida, Iron Butterfly, Sina
Her most requested cover.

Seventeen minutes long.
Look at the comments at this link.
Is there anything Sina can't play?

Notes From All Over -- The Late Night Edition -- Saudi's Problems Worsen; Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? -- August 30, 2020

Saudi Arabia: this past week, this was a top story: Saudi Arabia crude oil exports drop to lowest on record. Repeat: exports drop to lowest on record. On record. I find it amazing the stories that get so little press. Now this, from oilprice: the world's top oil importer -- CHINA -- is turning away from Saudi Arabia and turning to less expensive oil from Brazil and the United States.

In recent months, the world’s biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, has lost market share in China to the United States as the world’s top oil importer has boosted imports from America and reduced purchases from the Kingdom.

China has imported record volumes of crude oil in recent months, taking advantage of the lowest crude prices in two decades in April stock up on dirt-cheap oil.

In their bargain-hunting for low-priced oil, Chinese state oil giants and independent refiners alike snapped up cheap U.S. cargoes in April, which were loaded in May, started to arrive in China in June, and set records in July.

At the same time, Chinese oil imports from Saudi Arabia – after hitting all-time highs in May and June thanks to the bargain prices the Saudis offered in the brief price war for market share in March and April – slipped in July as availability of crude from the Middle East shrank after May with the OPEC+ cuts.

Chinese refiners were opportunistic buyers of crude in March and April, and given the shorter tanker travel time between the Middle East and China, compared to the U.S.-China route, Chinese imports of crude oil from Saudi Arabia slumped as early as in July from the record highs of the previous two months. Meanwhile, the roughly 45-day route from the U.S. to China means that the cheap American crude oil loaded in May started arriving in China en masse in July.

Much more at the link.

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For The Archives:
Saudi Aramco Announces Two New Oil And Gas Fields

Link here to Reuters:

  • Abraq al-Toloul oil field: southeast of the northern city of Arar;
  • Hadabat al Hajara gas field in the al-Job region:

Just what they need: more oil. LOL.

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Texas High School Football Players of the Year

On cable sports network now. Amazing to watch. What a great state. What a great country.  4A Texas football athlete of the year: Ashton Stredick. The senior is headed to Princeton University. From Needville, TX, within the Houston-Sugar Land metropolitan area. I'll miss the 5A highlights; headed over to Sophia's house for dinner.

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An Incredible Personal Story -- This Is What Life Is All About

I Just Want To Dance With You, George Strait & Kacey Musgraves
Unrehearsed.
Complete surprise.

And With This I'm Off The Net For Awhile -- August 30, 2020

Sunday Morning Coming Down -- Crazy Talk -- The Sports Page -- August 30, 2020

Putting things into perspective: watching the Boxer Rebellion, China, 1899 - 1901 on TCM and thinking about BLM (basketball lives matter) certainly puts things into perspective. Just saying.

Just a matter of time (many to choose from):

Sunday Morning Coming Down, Johnny Cash, Kris Kristofferson

Re-visiting Hurricane Laura.

  • The wind-speed dilemma and how to hype a hurricane. From Watts Up With That.
    • was Hurricane Laura actually a Category 2 hurricane?
  • And from NOLA: why the storm surge did not occur -- the hurricane hit 40 miles east of Weather Channel's forecast -- but picking that "wrong" location, drove ratings
    • anyone watching the Weather Channel overnight, as Hurricane Laura hit landfall literally saw the wind taken out of the Weather Channel's main sail;
    • not one correspondent was seen standing in water more than a few inches deep (if that much)
    • most chatter and video was about "swaying trees"; I don't recall even seeing fallen trees;

And then: that crazy Canadian oil story. Again, from Watts Up With That:

Western Canadian oil is being shipped, via the Panama Canal, to eastern Canada -- where the cars are; where the demand is, because environmentalists prefer:

    • riskier ways to ship oil than by pipeline:
    • prefer long-haul shipping and increased CO2 emissions; and,
    • prefer higher-priced crude oil at the other end (transportation costs)

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The Sports Page

BLM: the story changes. Now, the league players (the employees running the insane asylum) are telling us they will play because ... and I can't make this up ... their spokesmen say they can make a bigger "statement" by playing than by boycotting -- i.e., wearing their BLM-league logos on the floor. LOL To quote AOC: it's all about the Benjamins.

Daytona: all I can say, I'm glad that race is over. 

PGA today: most coverage so far this morning is on Tiger Woods, currently 56th in the FedEx standings, and about 12 strokes behind the leader in the BWM tournament.

  • Tiger's three weak spots:
    • driving off the tee;
    • moving the ball from the fairway/rough to the green; and,
    • putting.
  • Story line today: 
    • now that Tiger Woods is clearly not going to advance, he can enjoy his fourth rounds, and "practice" for the US Open, September 17 - 20, 2020.
    • expect a great fourth round -- and a lot of flashback videos of his "glory days"
  • Final for Tiger:
    • lost both mental focus and stamina
      • one bogey on the front nine
      • one bogey and one double bogey on the back nine; the double bogey on the penultimate hole (had a triple bogey on this hole yesterday)
      • no media interviews

PGA:

  • coming down to 18th hole, Dustin Johnson needs a birdie to tie the leader, Rahm
    • off the tee, into the rough
    • in big scheme of thing, does not matter; will advance regardless
  • JoaquĆ­n Newmann has impeccable credentials, but he certainly looks like a dead man walking; I don't recall seeing such a pale-looking, cachectic golfer ... ever

PGA: holy mackerel -- 30-foot putt to take this to overtime. Wow. The playoff will start at hole 18. This is incredible. Rahm's huge mistake -- cost him a stroke -- forgot to mark his ball. But back to Dustin Johnon's 30-foot putt. Incredible.  

PGA: playoff! Holy mackerel! Jon Rahm sinks a 66-foot-putt birdie. Impossible. Maybe some of the greatest golf I've seen in ages. Dustin Johnson needs a huge birdie to extend playoff. Jon Rahm wins by one stroke despite a penalty stroke yesterday.