Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Notes From All Over -- The Glamour Edition -- Midnight -- June 30, 2020

One of the things I like best about "the blog" is discovering other (much more) interesting blogs. I used to link them at the sidebar at the right. The bar was set high to be linked, and then, it appears, I lost interest in such blogs.

Until tonight.

It's a long, long story and it's not worth the time to go through it but the dots start connecting with White Mischief, linked at the sidebar at the right. The dots led to an interesting blog -- a very interesting blog, James Sherwood. It appears the last entry was back in 2018, having started in 2010, but that still provides a lot of interesting reading.

It has nothing to do with energy. 

Link here.

******************************
Flashback

On November 11, 2009, I posted this:
"When in the end, the day came on which I was going away, I learned the strange learning that things can happen which we ourselves cannot possibly imagine, either beforehand, or at the time when they are taking place, or afterwards when we look back on them." -- Karen Blixen (Isak Dinesen), Out of Africa, 1937.
And, now, here in 2020, I'm back in my Out of Africa phase.

I Thought I Heard You Call My Name, Jessie Colter

Could President Make It A Twofer? -- June 30, 2020

I'm being told this one will be their biggest in history, with 1,000 entrants already.

President Trump will be in the area; could he make it a twofer? A rodeo followed by a visit to Mount Rushmore?


Sempra Energy -- June 30, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Earlier today:
Sempra Energy over at SeekingAlpha:
Sempra Energy raises earnings guidance, completes exit from South America.

Sempra Energy issues upside earnings guidance for FY 2020, now seeing adjusted EPS of $7.20-$7.80 from prior guidance of $6.70-$7.50 and above analyst consensus estimate $7.06.

Sempra also says the completion of the sale of its Chilean businesses concludes the exit from all South American operations, resulting in $5.82B in combined cash proceeds.
Tonight, after that report came out, link here. Remember, there are almost 3,000 companies listed on the NYSE:

API: Largest Crude Oil Draw This Year -- June 30, 2020

API weekly estimate:
  • largest crude draw this year -- link here;
  • forecast: an inventory draw of less than a million bbls
  • a draw of 8.156 million bbls for the week ending June 26, 2020
  • EIA data tomorrow
Closing prices after data released:
  • OPEC basket drops -- this is terrible news for Saudi Aramco, Prince MbS; link here;
  • WTI up a bit

The MRO C-E-2H-O Pad In Reunion Bay

The wells:
  • 37673, loc, Herman USA 24-31TFH, Reunion Bay, 1280-acre unit, sections 30/31-151-93;
  • 37674, loc, Hartson USA 24-31H, Reunion Bay, 1280-acre unit, sections 30/31-151-93;
  • 37675, loc, Etherington USA 34-31TFH, Reunion Bay, 1280-acre unit, sections 30/31-151-93;
  • 37676, loc, Copeland USA 34-31H, Reunion Bay, 1280-acre unit, sections 30/31-151-93;
  • 37677, loc, Ortman USA 34-31TFH, Reunion Bay, 1280-acre unit, sections 30/31-151-93;
Five new permits, #37673 - #37677, inclusive -- from the June 30, 2020, daily activity report --
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for a five-well pad sited in SWSE 31-151-93, Reunion Bay, all 407' FSL and about 1700' FEL
      • Herman USA: TFH
      • Hartson USA: MB
      • Etherington USA: TFH
      • Copeland USA: MB
      • Ortman USA: TFH
General area for the proposed 5-well MRO pad:


Which Apple Tablet -- iPad -- Is Best? -- June 30, 2020

A reader wrote to tell me that a family member needs to upgrade to a new Apple tablet, and asking what I thought.

Here is my not-ready-for-prime-time reply. I'm posting it because I'm curious if others might want to weigh in.
Wow, that's a tough one -- knowing nothing about the user and what the tablet will be used for, but here goes.

There are so many variables and the "personality" of the user; where they plan to use the iPad, etc.

To begin, there are three choices:
  • iPad Pro -- high end
  • iPad Air -- some say a compromise between high end and low end; I think it's much better than a compromise; I think it's high end;
  • iPad -- low end, the "original" as it were
You can see I did not even consider the fourth Apple choice, iPad mini.

1. If they plan to use it as a computer in addition to the tablet, then one has to move up to the iPad Pro.

2. If one just wants the tablet, then either the iPad Air or the iPad.

3. I never thought I would want a "big" tablet, but now my 10.2 inch (or whatever size it is) almost seems too small. I find I prefer "larger the better" when it comes to tablets.

4. iPad Air comes in one size, apparently, 10.5.

5. iPad Pro comes in larger (11-inch) and largest (12.9-inch).

6. It seems the iPad (10.2 inch) is starting to show its age.
7. The iPad Pro seems to be for the really, really serious user who really plans on using the tablet for a computer as much as a tablet. Since I do my heavy "lifting" on a laptop, I don't need the iPad Pro.

8. That comes down to the iPad Air for me. Only one size, so that helps.

9. Most important after you decide what model to get: how much memory. I would not want less than 256 GB which appears "basic" for the iPad Air, so that helps.

10. As long as I have my iPhone, I have never needed cellular for my laptop or tablet. Adding another cellular device simply adds an unneeded monthly expense for me and dealing with the phone company. So unless there is a reason for cellular, I would stick with wi-fi only. If price and setting up cellular with the phone company is not an issue, then it would be up to the user whether they feel cellular is necessary.

11. Most important after deciding on the tablet: get the latest version of the Apple Pencil. As far as I know, that's 2nd generation. But the Apple Pencil -- even though it's expensive -- is a must have. I bought the tablet first and then a year or so later got the Apple Pencil -- helped flatten the curve on initial cost. That's an option. Get the family member the tablet now and once the individual is used to it, surprise him/her with the $129 pencil.

12. I'm probably missing something, but that's where I'm at, at the moment.

13. It's funny, even if money were not an issue, I'm not sure I would want the iPad Pro -- I really don't know. My hunch is it's the greatest thing since sliced bread, but I do my heavy "lifting," as I said, on the laptop, and then use the tablet mostly for surfing the net while laying down in bed.

14. Now, let's see what the pros suggest:

Well, that article didn't help me. Simply re-stated the techs. It still comes down to the user preference and what they plan to use the tablet for.
I'm curious to your thoughts (much abbreviated, I'm sure) as you go through the process.

So, there you have it.

iPad Air, wi-fi only, at least 256 GB (which is basic model), and an Apple pencil.
And get it at Costco, if available.

Daily Activity Report Pending; SRE Raises Earnings Guidance -- June 30, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Sempra Energy over at SeekingAlpha:
Sempra Energy raises earnings guidance, completes exit from South America.

Sempra Energy issues upside earnings guidance for FY 2020, now seeing adjusted EPS of $7.20-$7.80 from prior guidance of $6.70-$7.50 and above analyst consensus estimate $7.06.

Sempra also says the completion of the sale of its Chilean businesses concludes the exit from all South American operations, resulting in $5.82B in combined cash proceeds.
******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$39.666/30/202006/30/201906/30/201806/30/201706/30/2016
Active Rigs1061675830

Five new permits, #37673 - #37677, inclusive --
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for a five-well pad sited in SWSE 31-151-93, Reunion Bay, all 407' FSL and about 1700' FEL
    • it should be noted that the scout ticket for permit #37672 has still not been posted;
General area for the proposed 5-well MRO pad:


FaceBook Video Of Downed Power Lines In Mountrail County -- June 30, 2020

Not sure if y'all can access this on FaceBook, but if  you can, a video of downed powerlines in Mountrail County near New Town, ND,  after big storm last night (June 29, 2020).

Another reason for on-site solar energy for oil well pads. 

Link here: https://www.facebook.com/kristi.r.faulkner/videos/10219130341303588/.

New Town is about 50 miles east-northeast of Watford City, just across the river, in Mountrail County.

King5 video here.

FreightWaves story and video here.

The New Minnkota Power Permit In North Dakota -- June 30, 2020

Note the Minnkota Power permit announced yesterday, June 29, 2020:
Three new permits, #37670 - #37672, inclusive --

  • Operators: Whiting, Enerplus, Minnkota Power Coop
  • Fields: Sanish (Mountrail); Squaw Creek (Dunn); and, wildcat, Oliver County
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has a new Lacey permit, SWNW 10-152-92, Sanish oil field;
    • Enerplus has a Kudu permit in SWNE 3-148-94, Squaw Creek oil field;
    • Minnkota Power has a J-ROC1 permit in section 4-141-83, Oliver County
The graphic:


See this post regarding the earlier Minnkota Power permit:
A reader expanded:
The Minnkota Power Coop permit is a geologic test well for the Project Tundra Carbon capture project that is progressing. Its part of the front end engineering design portion of the project that is currently under way in order to decide whether or not the project is ultimately built or not.
This is tagged: "ProjectTundra."

Notes From All Over -- Late-Morning Edition -- June 30, 2020

Connecting the dots: this is all a bit ironic. It was reported today that the EU is removing the US from the list of "safe countries" due to corona virus. LOL. The irony? All "dots" lead to Europe. Quick, name the five states in the news with regard to surging Covid-19:
  • Florida, 
  • New York
  • Georgia
  • California
  • Texas
What do they all have in common?

International airports / hubs bringing in international travelers:
  • NYC: JFK
  • Georgia: Atlanta
  • Texas: DFW
  • CA: LAX
  • Florida: the destination for German tourists
NY governor: perhaps the most "ridiculous" (for lack of a better word) of all politicians, all talking heads, throughout this entire pandemic.
Besides being completely wrong on literally everything, he flip-flopped on his own policies, but worst of all: he was not a problem solver. He was a whiner. A huge whiner. Blaming everyone else but himself for NY's experience. No buck stopped with him. Don't take that out of context. I don't like "blaming" in the first place -- that's not the point. What frustrated me: he spent his time blaming folks rather than trying to solve the problem. That's why I like poker. Successful poker players don't blame anyone or anything. They simply play the best they can with the cards they are dealt. Biggest whiners? Pro athletes earning in excess of one million dollars per year. Time to move on. 
Nonsense and saying "no": last week, a story (click bait) with Buffett's #1 "trait" for being successful -- the ability to say "no." The story used Buffett and Steve Jobs as examples. In fact, that was only half the story. The other half: knowing to whom or what to say "no." Had Steve Jobs said "no" to the smart phone and iTunes and yes to Apple TV back in 2007, Apple would not be where it is today.
The other trait not mentioned in the article, which I believe is just as important, or maybe more important, recognizing "nonsense" and ignoring nonsense.

I got that from my closest friend while serving at Grand Forks AFB, ND, back in 1980, or whenever it was. I think John's favorite word was "nonsense." He became one of the most successful physicians I ever had the pleasure of working with and he is still in active practice, well over the "normal" retirement age. He had not time for "nonsense."

Speaking of time, there are a lot of things I don't like about "our" response to Covid-19, but I have to admit that to some degree. we're getting more efficient and getting rid of a lot of "nonsense" where it matters. Wearing masks may or my not be "nonsense," but in the big scheme of things it's unimportant with regard to saving time, being efficient.

Exhibit A: tomorrow is "signing day" for Olivia and club soccer. This is a big, big deal and lots of "legal" boundaries. Normally, families of the soccer player would gather in some arena and go through the process of signing the player to a club team. Think the NFL draft on steroids for tweeners and teeners.

For working parents, it was a lot of "nonsense." Taking up to four hours off from work, driving to some location out in the middle of nowhere, standing in long lines, yada, yada, yada. But now, due to corona virus, lo and behold, it can all be done on-line and on a PDF and an electronic signature with a virtual notary notarizing the signature. Are you kidding me? Someone figures that this could all be done virtually? Wow. Will wonders never cease?

Our Olivia will still get to be with her parents and she will still be able to party and celebrate with her team but the families won't have to be there -- one parent, max, is allowed. This is incredible. It's a win-win for everyone.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Market: as expected, the market turned green. Wow, wow, wow.
  • BA: still down 5%
  • AAPL: up 1%; up almost 4%
  • IMUX: down 3%; down forty cents
  • CLR: up 6%; we talked about this yesterday, I believe
I have to clean up my portfolio. Good luck to all.

Fast And Furious -- Ten Minutes -- June 30, 2020

Headline story of the day: US Supreme Court "okays" public funding for religious schools. Narrow but sweeping. Ruling was authored by none other than Chief Justice John Roberts.

Amber Renee: all eyes on Amber Renee-R and Sophia Drake-R.

Market flat last trading day of 2Q20.

US consumer confidence beats expectations. Link here.

Market:
  • AAPL: up over $2.00
  • BA: down 6%; down over $12
  • IMUX: down over 3%; down 39 cents; trading at $12.10
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

White Mischief: updates on the notes I am taking for this book will be delayed until later today. Link at side bar at the right.

US Supreme Court: for the archives. Rulings on three cases yesterday -- overall I am very happy with the rulings. I think one ruling was wrong, but it was probably -- in the big scheme of things -- the "correct" ruling.

Politics: Dems trying to get traction on new Russia story. Too complicated for Americans to understand. Doesn't make sense to begin with. American tired of "Russia" conspiracy theories. Even Pentagon says there is no "there" there.

Politics: Biden's VP pick -- some suggest Kamala Harris. When you get right down to it, that's about his only choice considering how he boxed himself into a corner.

Covid-19: EU takes US off "safe list."

Dead: at 96, Carl Reiner.

All Eyes On Amber Renee And Sophia Drake Today -- June 30, 2020

Updates

July 21, 2020: both wells, #36887 and #36888, are now "drl/NC."
 
Original Post
 
See this link.

They both come off the confidential list today.

Later: both wells go to drl/drl status. No production data.

File report on Amber Renee-R:
  • spud date: October 1, 2019
  • cease drilling: October 30, 2019
  • TD: 20,272' 
  • TVD: 9,855.36'
  • target: middle Bakken
  • bottom hole: 111' FSL and 561' FWL, section 36-154-91
  • vertical was drilled in one run
    • logging services began on October 5, 2019; 2210 hrs CDT in the Big Snowy formation;
    • reached KOP of 9,265' MD on October 6, 2019, at 0730 hr CDT
    • about 12 hours
  • curve:
    • began October 6, 2019 at 2015 hrs CDT at 9,265' MD in the Lodgepole
    • background gas was between 34 and 6,275 units; average: 223 units
    • drilled in one run
    • landed at 10,070' MD and 9,773' TVD on October 7, 2019, 1110 hours CDT
    • landed 7' into the middle Bakken
    • about 12 hours drilling
  • the lateral
    • middle Bakken encountered at 9,982' MD, 9,766' TVD
    • background gas, averaged 507 units; high of 1,818 units
    • lateral began at 1545 hr CDT, October 26, 2019
    • one trip to the surface required; lateral completed in two runs;
    • completed at 20,272' MD at 1500 hours CDT, October 30, 2019
    • exactly four days drilling, almost to the hour
  • pending completion at time of report; 
File report on Sophia Drake-R:
  • frack: 48 stages; total proppant, 10.0 million pounds; total water pumped: 250K bbls
  • spud date: September 28, 2019
  • cease drilling: October 22, 2019, TD: 20,652' MD, 9,808.17 TVD;
  • target: middle Bakken
  • bottom hole: 112' FSL and 2,239' FWL section 36-154-91
  • vertical:
    • logging services began at 7,600' MD on October 11, 2019, at 1754 hours CDT in the Big Snowy formation
  • KOP of 9,610' MD reached on October 13, 2019, at 0700 hours; two runs; 
  • curve:
    • began at 1920 hours CDT, October 13, 2019, at 9,610' MD in the Lodgepole
    • landed at 10,334' MD, 9,757' TVD, on October 14, 2019 at 1730 hours;
  • lateral:
    • began at 1120 hours CDT, October 18, 2019;
    • TD reached at 20,652' MD at 1820 hours CDT October 22, 2019
    • background gas averaged 486 units, max at 2150 units
    • the lateral was completed in one run

Five Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- Including Amber Renee And Sophia Drake -- June 30, 2020

Gas demand -- oh, oh: preliminary data suggests US gasoline demand dropped 9% week-over-week, from twitter:


Apple: with next release of its smart phones, it is being reported that it is unlikely that Apple will ship power adapters or AirPods in the box. That just shows how much the Apple iPhone has penetrated the market. 
Saudi: will raise official selling price for China.


OPEC basket: $37.33 -- again, for newbies, this has to be incredibly concerning for Saudi; it goes down again overnight; the price is not clawing its way back to $40; link here;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

COP: sees 2Q20 production 5% below that of previous quarter

************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


$39.036/30/202006/30/201906/30/201806/30/201706/30/2016
Active Rigs1061675830

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- last day of the second quarter -- Tuesday, June 30, 2020: 73 for the month; 218 for the quarter, 445 for the year:
  • 37048, drl/drl, CLR, Simmental Federal 9-16H1, Elm Tree,
  • 36888, drl/drl, Murex, Sophia Drake 25-36H-R, Sanish,
  • 36887, drl/drl, Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H-R, Sanish,
  • 36785, drl/A, Kraken, Double Eagble 33-3 1H, Sanish, t--; cum 99K in four months;
  • 35666, SI/NC, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 2H, Poe, t--; cum 123K in four months, including a 49K month;
RBN Energy: Pemex's struggles bode well for US refined product exports, part 2. Archived.
U.S. exports of motor gasoline and diesel to Mexico increased steadily from 2013 through 2018 as demand for refined products south of the border increased and throughput at Pemex’s six older, investment-starved refineries declined. U.S.-to-Mexico shipments of gasoline and diesel sagged in 2019, though, as Pemex started to implement a major refinery rebuilding program, and fell further in the spring of 2020 as the social and economic effects of COVID kicked in and Mexican demand for motor fuels plummeted. So what’s ahead for U.S. refined product exports as Mexican demand gradually rebounds later this year and in 2021? As we discuss today, that will largely depend on the Mexican government’s determination to have its debt-laden energy company produce gasoline and diesel at a loss and proceed with expensive refinery projects.

Monday, June 29, 2020

Lease Sales -- Apparently No ND Quarterly Lease Sale In May, 2020

Link here.

A Peregrine Petroleum Partners Larson Well In Covered Bridge Oil Field; Outside Of Tier 1 -- June 29, 2020

The well:
  • 36558, 301, Peregrine Petroleum Partners, LTD, Larson 15-10 1H, Covered Bridge, t9/19; cum 111K 4/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20207269740282906749450812413
BAKKEN2-202029146991395116179360122347212540
BAKKEN1-20203017245171581663928774241794595
BAKKEN12-20192817232191882022218272591112361
BAKKEN11-20193023707229672752438872038872
BAKKEN10-20193121599219383245137048037048
BAKKEN9-20191613374111162632921898021898

The graphic:


From the file report:
  • December 3, 2019: switched over from flowing to ESP pump. 
  • August 18, 2019: stimulated; 25 stages; 4.98 million lbs proppant;
  • 30 miles south of Arnegard, ND, southern McKenzie County
  • a single middle Bakken lateral;
  • spud July 22, 2018
  • vertical hole completed with three assemblies
  • about 64 hours down time
  • KOP reached on August 2, 2019 
  • completed with one assembly
  • curve successfully landed at 11,048; MD and 10,520' TVD, appox 10' below the upper Bakken shale on August 2, 2019
  • lateral completed using four assemblies
  • during the second trip, the lower Bakken shale was contacted at a depth of 17,128'. Since the lower Bakken shale is relatively thin in this portion of the Basin, the directional team was able to safely slide out of the shale; no adverse effects noted;
  • third and fourth trips unremarkable
  • gases: middle Bakken, ranged from 5,900 (sic) to 1300 units while several shows exceeded 700 units (sic)
  • trips were accompanied by 15' to 30' bright orange flares
  • background gas in the lateral ranged fro 300 to 5500 units;
  • ideal drilling zone was 8' thick, beginning 8.5' into the middle Bakken and ending 4.5' above the lower Bakken shale
  • the lateral was drilled in 7.5 days from casing exit to total depth
  • surface casing to TD; 23 days
  • 84% of the lateral was within target; opening 9,960' of potentially productive reservoir rock
At the sidebar at the right, click on "heat map of the Bakken":
area 8: west McKenzie; does not appear to be Tier 1; maybe not even Tier 2.

This "Covered Wagon" well took awhile to drill but not out of the ordinary
  • note the "small" frack: 25 stages; 5 million lbs proppant
  • big flares; moderate background gas
Two other wells in immediate area of interest:
  • 27970: an older well; "dry" for all intents and purposes
  • 32701, 443, Peregrine Petroleum Partners, Burlington Fee 9-16-1H, Hay Draw, t7/18; cum 192K 4/20; off line 4/20; stimulated July 16, 2018, 25 stages; 4.87 million lbs;  
My two cents worth: there's a lot of work left to be done in the Bakken; at the right price, this area could be Tier 1, and with improved completion strategies, more experience, and even at these prices, this area might be a pretty good area -- which, if accurate -- speaks volumes about the Bakken.

Updating Some 1Q20 Wells That Came Off Confidential List But Reported No Production At The Time, Part 2 -- June 28, 2029

These are wells that were released from the confidential list during the 1Q20 but did not report production or an IP at the time they came off the confidential list. Tonight --the second consecutive night that I am doing this -- I'm running through the list and will post those that have not previously been posted. [Note: I have only gotten through a small part of the list; I may or may not complete this exercise later.] 

These wells are simply incredible. 

The wells:
  • 34826, drl, Hess, HA-Nelson A-152-95-3427-9, Hawkeye, t--; cum 70K 4/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-202031256702561511993000
BAKKEN4-20203026953270191229145494417933701
BAKKEN3-20201817509172988300319001381318087
  • 36200, drl/A, WPX, Pheasant 33-28HZ, Spotted Horn, t--; cum 145K 4/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20203027367275851430033716214558870
BAKKEN3-20203143650434932548356026508770
BAKKEN2-20202942783428012923753852488200
BAKKEN1-20201931363311563066438691249519922
BAKKEN12-20190000000
  • 36397, SI/NC, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 4-24-11-1HU, Mandaree, t--; cum 120K 4/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2020148705777117029
BAKKEN4-20203021773215842721919389181301259
BAKKEN3-20203131677317352482127496254562040
BAKKEN2-2020282504424802222341961019207403
BAKKEN1-202031388403892239084282651422214043
BAKKEN12-201931240519103133131001310
  • 36199, drl/A, WPX, Pheasant 33-28HD, Spotted Horn, t--; cum 150K 4/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202030276432781510548340561816412474
BAKKEN3-20203140033401001342251705469440
BAKKEN2-202029473954717220750583924050212368
BAKKEN1-20201934900347512176143034291569686
BAKKEN12-20190000000
  • 36272, drl, WPX, Pheasant 33-28HTL, Spotted Horn, t--; cum 119K 4/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20203022517226751279327741199522873
BAKKEN3-20203132337321912085639840343391562
BAKKEN2-20202936252362212530050226458930
BAKKEN1-20201927762276541277334236276483157
BAKKEN12-20190000000
  • 33155, SI/A, BR, Mathistad 7-8-35 MBH, Croff, t--; cum 34K after 30 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2020303384033453753254497543590
BAKKEN3-202028867867153972207512156
  • 36288, drl/drl, Rimrock Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-3HA, Mandaree, t--; cum 80K 4/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-202000920000
BAKKEN4-20203020950209912670420552164671935
BAKKEN3-20203124112240353669722342169353225
BAKKEN2-2020291943019293332951765515262843
BAKKEN1-2020221531915037381721100447965719
  • 36290, drl/drl, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-2H, Mandaree, t--; cum 100K 4/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-202000930000
BAKKEN4-20203021059211892228619936159731877
BAKKEN3-20203128574284932958426755202803862
BAKKEN2-2020282345523442322692047017694978
BAKKEN1-20202626787262935762520430890510617
  • 36463, drl/A, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HUL, Mandaree, t--; cum 87K 4/20; 55K month; 3/20 extrapolates to 63,630 bbls over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202030551475511230865616544136514049
BAKKEN3-20201531815315711129035569032165
BAKKEN2-20200000000

A Good Day For Oil Bulls -- June 29, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

COP: for bedtime reading, later tonight -- a contributor over at SeekingAlpha writes about COP.
  • oil continues to be slammed by the price war and COVID-19
  • any big oil producer makes for a fine long-term investment
  • however, ConocoPhillips is presently the best positioned
  • Selling puts against it is a great way to generate income and potentially buy it at a value price
  • a word search of the article: does not mention "Bakken"; huge oversight
WLL: a contributor at SeekingAlpha

Oil: had a good day for bulls --
  • WTI: up 2.6%; trading just under $40 again
  • OPEC basket: up 2.2%; trading well under $40, at $37.99, link here
Harold Hamm: with his most recent purchase, Harold Hamm now owns almost 80% of the total common CLR shares outstanding as of April 30, 2020
  • in addition, IAW with SEC rules, he has announced he intends to acquire shares of CLR common stock "with certain timing, volume and price limitations"
  • the trading plan was entered into on June 25, 2020
  • some years ago, during a conference call, Harold Hamm was asked point blank, why didn't he take his company private
  • it should be noted that a very, very successful Bakken operator, Slawson, is privately held; there are a few others, but probably not as well known
  • market cap, for CLR: $5.92 billion but for this discussion, let's call it $6 billion
  • 20% of $6 billion = $1.2 billion
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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$39.506/29/202006/29/201906/29/201806/29/201706/29/2016
Active Rigs1061675930

Three new permits, #37670 - #37672, inclusive --
  • Operators: Whiting, Enerplus, Minnkota Power Coop
  • Fields: Sanish (Mountrail); Squaw Creek (Dunn); and, wildcat, Oliver County
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has a new Lacey permit, SWNW 10-152-92, Sanish oil field;
    • Enerplus has a Kudu permit in SWNE 3-148-94, Squaw Creek oil field;
    • Minnkota Power has a J-ROC1 permit in section 4-141-83, Oliver County

Notes From All Over -- The Wall Street Edition -- June 29, 2020

The wall: US Supreme Court declines to hear border wall challenge. Story and links should be everywhere.
The Supreme Court is leaving in place a decision that rejected environmental groups’ challenge to sections of wall the Trump administration is building along the U.S. border with Mexico.
The high court on Monday declined to hear an appeal involving construction of 145 miles (233 kilometers) of steel-bollard walls along the border in Arizona, California, New Mexico and Texas.
The Center for Biological Diversity, the Animal Legal Defense Fund, Defenders of Wildlife, and the Southwest Environmental Center had challenged a federal law that allows the secretary of Homeland Security to waive any laws necessary to allow the quick construction of border fencing. The groups had argued that violates the Constitution’s separation of powers. But a lower court dismissed the case.
Focus on Fracking: has been posted, dated June 29, 2020 -- natural gas prices hit 25-year low; crude supplies and oil +  oil product supplies again at new all-time highs. Link here

Amazon: will pay one-half billion dollars in one-time bonus to front-line workers.  On that news, AMZN drops about a percent. Wow, talk about greedy Wall Street investors. Hey, share the wealth.

Boeing: gets FAA okay to start certification test flights of its 737 Max jet. Wow. So, let's see. Maybe by the end of the year we start seeing them fly again?

Facebook pummeled -- ZeroHedge: Facebook shares down 16.3% from last week's high; boycott widens. Coca-Cola halts social media advertising; the list grows. The market is surging today and FB is down about a percent. From IBD:
Facebook dipped 0.8% Monday, after plunging 8% Friday as Unilever joined a growing number of companies that say they will stop advertising on Facebook and Instagram as the "Stop Hate for Profit" boycott picks up steam. Over the weekend PepsiCo reportedly followed suit. 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

APPL: stores closing? What stores closing? AAPL up over a percent today; back over $357/share.

IMUX: down 6%.
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Cytokine Storm / Cytokine Release

For background, see wiki entry.

The Verge had a story on Decadron and Covid-19 back in March, 2020. The first textbook on Cytokine Storm Syndrome was published last November, 2019, before Covid-19 was even a glimmer in the eye of Wuhan biowarfare researchers.

With regard to Covid-19, the press is making a big deal out of something that's been known by physicians since at least the 1990s.

It makes sense that in certain patients a steroid would work, in this case dexamethasone, or Decadron, wiki entry.

When I was first introduced to Decadron, in the late 1970s / early 1980s I thought it was a miracle drug, just as penicillin was considered a miracle drug back in the day.

Decadron was first made in 1957 by Philip Showalter Hench, of Mayo Clinic fame, and was approved for medical use in 1961. Hench was one of three physician-researchers to be awarded the Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine in 1950 for the discovery of the hormone cortisone, and its application for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis.

The bottom line for me: technology is speeding the spread of information for everyone, including physicians, and physicians practicing medicine, still an art, will tailor their treatment for each of their patients. But this is really, really cool -- physicians have another tool in their toolkit to fight corona virus.

By the way, learning that Dr Hench was from Mayo, as was one of the other two physicians awarded the 1950 Nobel Prize for Medicine, connected several dots for me. It's a long story and I won't go into now, and probably never will, but, again, the blog "forced" me to do a little "research" and in the process, I closed a few loops, connected a few dots.

Supply Concerns Drive French 4Q Physical Power Premium -- ArgusMedia -- June 29, 2020

Words and phrases one does not like to see in one story when it comes to electricity, unless it's in French:
  • electricity
  • blackout
  • curtailment
  • concerns that demand will far exceed supply
  • physically delivered contract has been pushed to an unusual premium to the financially settled derivative
  • qué será será
Link here to ArgusMedia.

Amazing how many contracts exist:
A physical contract for electricity is a negotiated contract between a seller and a buyer in the over-the-counter (OTC) market. There is a range of different physical contracts for 15-minute delivery, hourly, spot, long-term or forward. Since electricity cannot be stored, this range of contracts is necessary to maintain supply-demand balance. 
Derivative contracts are used in European power exchanges. The value of a derivative will vary based on the changes in the price of the underlying power product. Companies that consume and produce energy use energy derivatives to help hedge against marketplace risks.
Background:
Supply concerns have been stoked by extended nuclear maintenance scheduled for the fourth quarter. In mid-April, France’s EdF reduced its 2020 nuclear output guidance to 300TWh to reflect the Covid-19 crisis and resulting drop in power demand. It then changed its nuclear maintenance schedule in late April — this shows that 19.4GW is expected to be off line in October-December.
But historical data show that during winter 2016-17, when nuclear unavailability averaged over 20GW, day-ahead hourly prices peaked at €874/MWh for delivery on hour 19 on 7 November 2016.
Can't they just spin the wind turbines faster?

At today's exchange rate, this works out to $980.72/MWh. Ouch.

Meanwhile in New England this morning: 90% of electricity provided by natural gas and nuclear; only seven percent by renewables. Cheap energy right now.

Electricity prices for households, December, 2019, around the world, kWh, US dollar, partial list follows:
  • Sudan: $0.00
  • Venezuela: $0.00
  • Iran: $0.01
  • Cuba: $0.01
  • Saudi Arabia: $0.05
  • Mexico: $0.07
  • China: $0.08
  • Taiwan: $0.10
  • Norway: $0.12
  • USA: $0.14
  • Sweden: $0.18
  • France: $0.20
  • Italy: $0.26
  • Germany: $0.36
  • Bermuda: $0.39

NDARC Drops Below Ten -- June 29, 2020

Facebook pummeled -- ZeroHedge: Facebook shares down 16.3% from last week's high; boycott widens. Coca-Cola halts social media advertising; the list grows.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


$38.906/29/202006/29/201906/29/201806/29/201706/29/2016
Active Rigs961675930

Wells coming off the confidential list --  

Tuesday, June 30, 2020: 73 for the month; 218 for the quarter, 445 for the year:
37048, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 9-16H1
36888, conf, Murex, Sophia Drake 25-36H-R, 
36887, conf, Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H-R, 
36785, conf, Kraken, Double Eagble 33-3 1H, 
35666, conf, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 2H,


Monday, June 29, 2020: 67 for the month; 212 for the quarter, 439 for the year:
  • 37049, drl/drl, CLR, Simmental Federal 8-16H, Elm Tree,
Sunday, June 28, 2020: 66 for the month; 211 for the quarter, 438 for the year:
  • 37050, drl/drl, CLR, Simmental Federal 7-16H2, Elm Tree,
Saturday, June 27, 2020: 65 for the month; 210 for the quarter, 437 for the year:
  • 35673, SI/A, CLR, Boise 8-24H, Brooklyn, t--; cum 60K in two months;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN4-20202522610227732732152351509221393
    BAKKEN3-20203037317370294098073455689604453
  • 35658, SI/A, CLR, Addyson 10-23HSL1, Brooklyn, t--; cum 75K in less than 4 months;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN4-20202513602136692377634781330311750
    BAKKEN3-20202825827259913750351381452866095
    BAKKEN2-2020292410124298373804950348807696
    BAKKEN1-2020171106810490211741972819356372
RBN Energy: E&Ps slash CAPEX, offer sparse production guidance.
Chesapeake Energy’s announcement yesterday that it has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection is only the latest sign of how much the seismic economic shocks from the pandemic-triggered demand destruction have roiled the U.S. E&P sector.
With equity prices plummeting to historic lows, oil and gas producers have focused their efforts on shoring up their balance sheets and share prices, by tightening their belts going into 2020, reducing capital expenditures by an average 14% in order to boost free cash flow and increase shareholder returns. So, it’s no surprise that the industry has aggressively battened down the hatches operationally and financially, mothballing rigs, suspending completions, shutting-in producing wells, slashing dividends, and suspending share repurchase programs.
First-quarter 2020 earnings releases and investor calls provided a clear picture of the dimensions of the cost-cutting by the 41 U.S. E&Ps we track. But continued uncertainty about the course and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, the pace of economic recovery, and the outlook for commodity prices have triggered reluctance on the part of oil and gas executives to issue production guidance for the remainder of 2020 and beyond. Today, we review the current capital expenditure reductions by U.S. E&Ps and piece together clues on their impact on oil and gas production.