Sunday, May 31, 2020

Notes From All Over -- Sunday Late Night Edition -- May 31, 2020

Parr Park, Grapevine, TX -- Parr Park Rocks!

I'll replace this with a better video later, but for now this will have to do.

Parr Park Rocks

***************************
NASCAR

Incredible race. Brad Keselowski "steals" another one. But well deserved. Chase Elliott / Joey Logano tangle with three to go -- Brad saw it coming. Took advantage. Incredible race. But Jeff Gordon, up in the booth. Wow, he's good. He may be the best sports commentator out there right now. I'm not a Keselowski fan but I'm warming up to him after races like this. Bristol, Tennessee.

*************************
Movie Night

Notorious, Alfred Hitchcock. Three times in 48 hours. The movie itself, then the movie with commentary, and then the movie again, this time with a second commentary. Yeah, it's that good. Tonight, Grand Budapest Hotel. Interesting back story.

************************
Grilling

Preparing the chicken for the grill. Video by Sophia. I normally don't use a "stand" for beer can chicken -- I prefer to set up the chicken without the stand but tonight just wanted to keep it simple. I had too many things to do.  





*******************************
Pending

Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves tumble 5% month over month; down almost 40% from a year ago. Enough "cash in the bank" to pay for 43 months of imports. Link here.

**********************************
Telstar

Telstar, The Tornados

Update Of MRO's Crow Flies High, Rock Woman, And Papa George In Antelope -- May 31, 2020

This well is off line, trending toward 600K:
There are two wells on DRL status on that 3-well pad; both have flared some natural gas; one has produced a bit of crude oil:
  • 36859, drl/drl, MRO, Rock Woman USA 41-4TFH, Antelope-Sanish; t--; cum --;
  • 36860, drl/drl, MRO, Papa George USA 41-4H, Antelope-Sanish; t--; cum --;

This Petroshale Well Is Back On Line; Trending Toward 600K -- May 31, 2020

The well:
  • 18579, 2,006, Petroshale/Oasis/SM, Jorgenson 1-30H, Bear Den, Bakken, t12/10; 120K by 6/11; cum 580K 3/20; 
The Jorgenson wells in Bear Den are tracked here

Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2020312991289411673659335686
BAKKEN2-2020263136306391846354346111
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20197566653438203019783
BAKKEN9-20193024532434111478097472127
BAKKEN8-201931237923367688714839899
BAKKEN7-2019312716283272810143988739
 
Earlier production:
BAKKEN6-20183050025149247910636103360
BAKKEN5-20183157275531251411151108410
BAKKEN4-20183056395552296484938036157
BAKKEN3-201817291630261623430541350
BAKKEN2-201828550454573032792376430
BAKKEN1-2018316134618138828686829284
BAKKEN12-20173064636019503967486111337
BAKKEN11-2017000029029
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-2017001340000
BAKKEN7-201720160116953812802249012
BAKKEN6-201730242225157024002365349
BAKKEN5-201731270127407894543420033

The BR Merton / Jerome Wells Have Been Updated -- Monster Wells -- May 31, 2020

These wells are monster wells; they have been updated. Tracked here.

Notes From All Over -- Early Sunday Afternoon Edition -- May 31, 2020

NASCAR: 2:30 p.m. today -- Bristol Motor Speedway; Tennessee; short-track racing, 15-second lap. Keselowski in the pole position. FWIW. First short-track race in 2020.

Random Update Of Wuhan Flu Statistics -- May 31, 2020

As states start to open up, the number of cases are increasing, as expected, but one must also remember that increased testing is also occurring.

The other thing to note is the percentage of total cases (positive tests) vs total number of tests completed. In some of the states hardest hit, the percentage ranges from 15% to 21%. In the states less badly hit, the percentage of positive tests to total number of tests is only 10%.

With a positive rate of only 10% in most states, and a positive rate of around 20% in the harder hit states, it certainly suggests surveillance targeting is either being poorly done, or this virus is not very infectious / contagious.

For example, and of course, this is not accurate, but for illustrative purposes: if one tests 100 folks because they have been exposed and only 10% of those people turn out positive, that suggests the virus is not particularly infectious. We saw that, by the way, on the Diamond Princess. A very small percentage of folks actually tested positive on this closed vessel.

One has to assume tests are being done on certain folks for a reason: I assume the #1 reason for testing is a person is being evaluated for cough and fever by one's physician; the #2 reason for testing is history of exposure. So, if the folks most likely to test positive are coming back at 20% in the hard-hit states and around 10% in the less hard-hit states, it certainly suggests that this virus is not very infectious, and a lot of folks presumed to have Wuhan flu based on symptoms, in fact, do not test positive.

For all the criticism the governor of Michigan is getting, Michigan does not show up on the first screenshot below, ranked by number of new cases. Michigan does show up on the second list, ranked by number of new deaths, suggesting the Michigan governor is correct in her decision to be overly cautious.

Michigan:
  • total tests: 538,812
  • number of positive tests: 56,884
  • percent of positive test / total tests: 10.6%
Already the CDC has confirmed a remarkably low rate of deaths due to Wuhan flu, link here
It now appears that the virus is not particularly infectious based on percent of positive tests vs number of tests performed.

So, now we have:
  • a virus that is not particularly infectious (this was suggested months ago, by the way), relative to smallpox, chickenpox, measles, and, the virus that causes the Trump Derangement Syndrome (which, by the way, that virus has still not been identified);
  • a virus that is not particularly deadly (CDC confirms, see link above);
  • a virus that pretty much hits those already with significant medical problems, and/or the elderly;
  • a virus, that compared to "seasonal flu," for which we have a vaccine, albeit very ineffective, that spares children and young adults;
Unintended consequences:
  • powder kegs across the nation with lock down; surging unemployment; no hope;
  • routine vaccination of infants and children plummeting; folks afraid to keep well baby appointments or afraid of vaccinations themselves (previously reported)
Ranked by number of new cases. Note that number of new cases are surging in California. New York is looking good (#4 on the list) only because California, Illinois, and Texas are now reporting a surge in cases, as more testing becomes available and the states "re-open." The most interesting state, of course, to watch will be Minnesota two to three weeks from now when their two largest cities, Minneapolis and St Paul lost complete control of the situation.


Ranked by number of new deaths. Based on "new case data" in the spreadsheet above, states like California, Illinois, and Texas should move higher in the next two or three weeks.



*************************************
Geologic Time

Some of this was previously posted. It originated with an essay in Power Line some months ago. See this link.

A huge part of evolution is knowing all the ages, epochs, periods, eras, eons, and supereons.

We're currently in the Holocene epoch, which has just begun, relatively speaking.

To date there have been three named ages of the Holocene epoch, most recent to oldest: Meghalayan; Northgrippian; and, Greenlandian, although it's my understanding these are "placeholders" for now and yet to be etched in stone.

By the way, "holocene" from the Greek: holo: whole, all; kainos: new. Looking at kainos it appears holocene should be pronounced with a hard "c," or holokene. "C" is a tough letter when it comes to pronunciation: a hard "c"; a soft "c"; and then there's the "j" sound for "c" in such words as Incirlik.

Now, some say we have entered the fourth age. This is quite incredible. This might be one of the longest single blog posts (at the link below) I have ever seen. It is incredible. I hope it never disappears behind a paywall or lost entirely some other way. Link here.

It's a keeper.

The fourth age of the Holocene epoch, the Age of Shibboliths.
Shibbolithic /ʃɪbəlˈiθik/ n.
: the current geological age, regarded as the first of the Anthropocene epoch and distinguished by the hegemony of unconvincing impostors in the scholarly and scientific academies.
St Greta of Thurnberg is probably the best example.
Source: ‘Shibbolithic.’ Merriam-Webster.com. Merriam-Webster, n.d. Web. 1 Apr. 2020.
My reading phase: re-reading Keld Zeruneith's The Wooden Horse, The Liberation of the Western Mind, From Odysseus to Socrates, c. 2007.  Previous posts:
In addition, I have three journals filled with notes on this book but too much material to transcribe.

WPX Lion Wells In Mandaree Oil Field Updated -- May 31, 2020

The WPX Lion wells in Mandaree oil field have been updated at this post. These were drilled a year ago and are monster wells.

Almost 300K Crude Oil In Less Than Nine Months -- May 31, 2020

The well:
  • 34398, 3,347, WPX, Lion 18-19HX, Three Forks, 33 stages; 8.3 million lbs; Mandaree, t7/19; cum 284K 3/20;
Full production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20203123546233701217845739430590
BAKKEN2-20202924854248961472843104402950
BAKKEN1-20203130273304271699836398324760
BAKKEN12-20193153376532902303861756519524093
BAKKEN11-20192949730495372041757538445117221
BAKKEN10-2019646474734273753783813902
BAKKEN9-201930357183571926509388253462938
BAKKEN8-20193140069401393243244437397740
BAKKEN7-20193021374212061710523234126738274
From the file report:
  • 100% of the lateral was drilled within the Three Forks formation; 9,897.39 feet (0.39 feet = 4.68 inches)
  • TD, vertical section: 10,948.73 feet
  • Three Forks encountered at true vertical depth of 11,012'
  • first bench Target B, unit 6 facies Y of the Three Forks formation

Example Of What The Bakken Will Look Like Going Forward -- May 31, 2020

Bakken wells will produce for 35 years. During that time they will be affected by neighboring wells; workovers; mini-re-fracks; major re-frack; etc.

This is an example of a very mediocre well drilled back in 2011. Since then the production has declined, then increased, then decline, then increased. See full production at this post.

The well:

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- May 31, 2020

The wells:
  • 36238, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 1SLH, Big Bend, 
  • 35188, conf, XTO, Hoffmann 21X-6BXC, Siverston,
  • 31791, conf, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Trust 153-94-6B-2-3H, Charlson,
  • 36468, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 3-10-11-12H, Big Bend,
  • 36237, conf, Slawson, Neptang 3-15-22H, Big Bend,
  • 36473, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 9-10-7TFH, Big Bend,
  • 36454, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1A, Sand Creek,
  • 36362, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal l1-12-1H, 
  • 35748, conf, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 2TFH, Poe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20201452415689
2-2020183247810
1-2020119205504
12-201998051222
  • 31790, conf, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Trust 153-94-6B-2-2H, Charlson,
  • 36455, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1B, Clear Creek,
  • 36360, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 10-12-1TFH, Sand Creek,
  • 36470, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 8-10-11-12H, Big Bend,
  • 36457, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1D, Clear Creek,
  • 36456, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1C, Clear Creek,
  • 36354, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 8-12-1TFH, Sand Creek,
  • 36240, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 4 SLH, Big Bend,
  • 35189, conf, XTO, Hoffmann Federal 21X-6H, Siverston,
  • 36754, conf, Kraken Candace 15-22 1TFH, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20203041613105
2-202027842278
1-202040483172
12-20193326315760
  • 36458, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1E, Clear Creek,
  • 35190, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6AXD, Siverston,
  • 36757, conf, Kraken Arrow A 15-22 4TFH, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20204317116508
2-2020786794
12-2019206875473
  • 36756, conf, Kraken Ethan 15-22 3TFH, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20203146110765
12-2019153624135
  • 36755, conf, Kraken, Penny 15-22 2TFH, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20203501814340
2-202022251849
1-202048833572
12-20192755014477
  • 36469, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 5-10-7TFH, Big Bend,
  • 36130, conf, Whiting, Harvey TTT 41-4HU, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20202749922093
2-20202967719188
1-2020309986718
12-2019211480
  • 35191, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6E, Siverston,
  • 37047, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 10-16H, Elm Tree,
  • 36157, conf, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-12H, Eigthmile,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2020173890
2-2020157010
1-2020262160
12-2019302450
11-2019190
  • 35192, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6B, Siverston,
  • 33838, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 9-8-5-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake,
  • 36471, drl/NC, Slawson, Periscope Federal 2-10-11-12H, Big Bend,
  • 33839, drl/drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 4-8-5-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- May 31, 2020

Monday, June 8, 2020: 31 for the month; 176 for the quarter, 403 for the year:
36238, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 1SLH, 
35188, conf, XTO, Hoffmann 21X-6BXC, 
31791, conf, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Trust 153-94-6B-2-3H, 

Sunday, June 7, 2020: 28 for the month; 173 for the quarter, 400 for the year:
36468, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 3-10-11-12H, 
36237, conf, Slawson, Neptang 3-15-22H, 

Saturday, June 6, 2020: 26 for the month; 171 for the quarter, 398 for the year:
36473, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 9-10-7TFH,
36454, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1A, 
36362, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal l1-12-1H, 
35748, conf, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 2TFH,  
31790, conf, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Trust 153-94-6B-2-2H, 

Friday, June 5, 2020: 21 for the month; 166 for the quarter, 393 for the year:
36455, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1B, 
36360, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 10-12-1TFH

Thursday, June 4, 2020: 19 for the month; 164 for the quarter, 391 for the year:
36470, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 8-10-11-12H, 
36457, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1D, 
36456, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1C, 
36354, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 8-12-1TFH
36240, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 4 SLH,
35189, conf, XTO, Hoffmann Federal 21X-6H, 

Wednesday, June 3, 2020: 13 for the month; 158 for the quarter, 385 for the year:
36754, conf, Kraken Candace 15-22 1TFH
36458, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1E, 
35190, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6AXD, 

Tuesday, June 2, 2020: 10 for the month; 155 for the quarter, 382 for the year:
36757, conf, Kraken Arrow A 15-22 4TFH
36756, conf, Kraken Ethan 15-22 3TFH
36755, conf, Kraken, Penny 15-22 2TFH
36469, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 5-10-7TFH
36130, conf, Whiting, Harvey TTT 41-4HU, 
35191, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6E, 

Monday, June 1, 2020: 4 for the month; 149 for the quarter, 376 for the year:
37047, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 10-16H, 
36157, conf, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-12H,
35192, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6B, 
33838, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 9-8-5-157N-99W,

Sunday, May 31, 2020: 95 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 372 for the year:
None. There was no November 31.

Saturday, May 30, 2020: 95 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 372 for the year:
36471, drl/NC, Slawson, Periscope Federal 2-10-11-12H, Big Bend,
33839, drl/drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 4-8-5-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake,

Saturday, May 30, 2020

Jump In Production; Two MRO Wells In Reunion Bay -- May 30, 2020

The wells:
  • 20050, 1,226, MRO, Red Feather USA 31-17H, Reunion Bay, F, t12/11; cum 387K 3/20; drilled back in 2011 -- almost a decade ago; flowing; no pump;
  • 20051, 1,169, MRO, Red Feather USA 21-17H, Reunion Bay, F, t12/11; cum 382K 3/20; drilled back in 2011 -- almost a decade ago; flowing; no pump;
Production periods of interest:
  • 20051:
BAKKEN11-20193063116305257077466336922
BAKKEN10-201931708370223219904563352187
BAKKEN9-201930119091195910454117319799945
BAKKEN8-20193112584125391398412939012106
BAKKEN7-20193013436134321599913829012938
BAKKEN6-201912363937228888332303081
BAKKEN5-2019178150911027129794607406
BAKKEN4-2019514754129119146801252
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-201943068261913910343
BAKKEN1-201931345444621424359720971061
BAKKEN12-20183138243253171038263280153
  • 20050:
BAKKEN11-201930655965781246819765831106
BAKKEN10-2019319609952842941056172412624
BAKKEN9-20193016159162432023523033189620016
BAKKEN8-20193120435203672058629879028508
BAKKEN7-20193023792237652231834613033011
BAKKEN6-20198289830074751379803602
BAKKEN5-201917985197264210912832012172
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-2019001770000
BAKKEN1-201921117617061721270715362
BAKKEN12-201831177014832971881151771

A CLR Cedar Coulee Carus Well Goes Over 500K In Style -- May 30, 2020

The well:
  • 16648, 508, CLR, Carus 13-28H, Cedar Coulee, SESW 28-147-96; Bakken pool, t8/07; cum 548K 3/20;
The well is followed at this post. It has a very interesting history. Previously posted:
16648, conf, CLR, Carus 13-28H, Cedar Coulee on the scout ticket; has been in production since 2007; not sure why it is on the confidential list; a stripper well as of June 17, 2016; an extended reach single lateral; middle Bakken; drilling target: approximately 27 feet thick, about 9' below the base of the upper Bakken shale; 100% within the drilling zone; spud June 10, 2007; KOP: June 22, 2007; cease drilling/TVD, 11,386.65 feet, July 15, 2007; average background gas -- very, very low, almost nil in much of the lateral; open hole completion, 1 million lbs sand; IP of 508; permit for BR (#16648, Carus 24-28H, Oakdale field, Dunn County; Change of Operator from BR to CLR, February 5, 2008; at that time #16648 still Carus 24-28H. The NDIC map does not show any Carus 24-28H; it appears the scout ticket is wrong --

Random Update Of A Madison Well In Portal Oil Field -- May 30, 2020

The well:
  • 33937, 102, Petro Harvester Operating, PTL2 4-16 163-92D, Portal oil field, target: Madison pool; t3/19; cum 56K 3/20; 
From the well file:
  • 14 stages;
  • 14.2 million lbs
  • horizontal; TD=15,244 feet
  • 30'-target
  • spud: October 13, 2018
  • TD: November 3, 2018
Production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
MADISON3-20203125352063358142437523437938
MADISON2-20202926972784331732256522433132
MADISON1-20203129243126358792188221304578
MADISON12-201931343233204071825887239921895
MADISON11-20193035073397385842050019752748
MADISON10-2019314330475046155215162150412
MADISON9-201930469842804552221421214183
MADISON8-20193152005341505862110120202899
MADISON7-201931616160575110720290161234167
MADISON6-20193075437661535831795417566388
MADISON5-20193178227875572431860718104503
MADISON4-20192536463712321795546550640
MADISON3-20192213565472879014751126349
MADISON2-20190000000

A 50-Fold Jump In Production In A Charlson Oil Field Well -- May 30, 2020

Neighboring wells recently fracked:
  • 13,039 bbls over 18 days extrapolates to 21,732 bbls
  • 20,000 bbls / 400 bbls = a 40-fold jump in production
The well:
  • 16711, 297, Petro-Hunt, USA 1D-4-1H, 640-acre spacing; Charlson, t6/08; cum 133K 3/20;
Production period of interest:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2020311602316117392913422132060
BAKKEN2-2020291902519016459029566360725757
BAKKEN1-2020181303912395461812719012594
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-2019192184364615015
BAKKEN6-201930349204782530253
BAKKEN5-2019313904476028156225
BAKKEN4-2019303945007730419284

Random Update Of A Rimrock Moccasin Creek DUC -- May 30, 2020

Almost 400K in one year.
  • 46 stages; 12.6 million lbs
  • 2560-acre spacing: sections 3/4/9/10-147-93
  • TD: 21,115 feet
The well:
  • 35499, 2,859, RimRock Oil & Gas, MC MHA 24-10HU, Moccasin Creek, t3/19; cum 384K 3/20;
Full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202030185691833913182236232354974
BAKKEN2-20202919688197001495824513245058
BAKKEN1-2020312423424204179652799327848145
BAKKEN12-2019242130321318152752003619488547
BAKKEN11-2019282548825558182532523524622587
BAKKEN10-20193132580325132601431737275433522
BAKKEN9-2019191811518105170831444993293937
BAKKEN8-201931352853547032300346891864914563
BAKKEN7-201931364373642231454364372435610821
BAKKEN6-20193036680365373524334237244019587
BAKKEN5-201926309953101732928269601527211688
BAKKEN4-20193057847579625926926112026112
BAKKEN3-20193126786263612489915200015200