Monday, April 20, 2020

Trump Was Correct -- Again -- April 20, 2020

Full transcript from PowerLine:
Evidence is mounting, via antibody tests, that far more people in the U.S. have been infected with the Wuhan virus than has previously been known. The Santa Clara study that Dr. Jay Bhattacharya described here is part of that body of evidence, as is a study released today that covered Los Angeles County:

Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection.
That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April.

*** The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.***

This is great news because it equates to a fatality rate in a range between .0014 and .0027.
Standard seasonal flu viruses typically have a fatality rate around .001. So the evidence increasingly suggests that the Wuhan virus is a little more dangerous than seasonal influenza, but of the same order of magnitude. This would appear to have significant public policy implications.
Be sure to scroll through the comments, especially those with statistics. It's quite staggering how the WHO, CDC, and mainstream media presented this pandemic. The Wuhan flu statistics suggest this may not be worse than seasonal flu, and, oh, by the way, we have a vaccine for "seasonal flu."


  1. Stanford study has been thoroughly debunked.

    The area under the curve doesn’t change. We made a flatter curve, so things will take longer. Or we could all grow up and wear masks in public. Since I require an economy, I’ll wear a mask. Everyone will be exposed eventually, just like the flu. There will be no effective vaccine for this type of bug, waiting for one is pointless. We have the spring and summer to get through this, then all the China trade will resume, and we’ll be in the same boat for Virus 2021, having not learned a damn thing.

    1. Agree 1000%. The "common cold" is caused by a coronavirus and we haven't found a vaccine for that "common cold" despite decades of research. The "seasonal flu" vaccine is hit or miss each year and is said to be, according to the CDC, 45% effective. If Apple/Microsoft software was 45% "effective," the companies would be broke.