Thursday, January 9, 2020

The Democrat Presidential Nomination Race -- Idle Rambling -- January 9, 2020

With several new polls out, nothing has changed. These are the likely scenarios, based on current polling. State to watch: California. Buttigieg will do well in California but not enough to make up for the delegates he won't get in the other states.
  • brokered convention
    • most likely of the several scenarios assuming no skullduggery by the DNC movers and shakers, Hillary, Bill, Michelle, and/or Barack, prior to the convention (huge, huge assumption);
    • no one candidate has 50% +1 of the delegates going into first vote
    • no second-tier candidate has enough delegates to release to change first-vote outcome
    • goes to second round and super-delegates (i.e., Hillary, Bill, Michelle, and Barack) get their nominee
  • scenario #2:
    • Pocahontas faces by Super Tuesday; spoiler role only;
    • prior to first vote, Biden has just under 50%;
    • Steyer, Yang, Klobuchar release their delegates to support Sanders
    • Pocahontas refuses to release delegates
    • first vote: Sanders, close to 50% but misses; Biden in second; 
    • second vote (brokered convention) forced
  • scenario #3:
    • Pocahontas does well enough on Super Tuesday to be king-maker;
    • prior to first vote, Biden has just under 50%;
    • releasing her delegates on first vote, Pocahontas could give Sanders the nomination
      • she is promised VP 
  • king-maker? Buttigieg -- 
    • in all scenarios, if it's that close, Buttigieg could release delegates to get the nominee he wants
    • I don't see Pocahontas as the king-maker, except possibly threatening to release her delegates to support Sanders
    • Buttigieg's best change: VP under Biden (no pun intended)
  • at the end of the day
    • Sanders on the first vote, or,
    • brokered convention and super-delegates pick nominee 
    • Pocahontas or Buttigieg, in exchange for a VP promise, give the nomination to Sanders or Biden in first round of voting;
  • odds:
    • Sanders, on the first vote: 10% chance that will happen
    • brokered convention and super-delegates get their nominee: 90% chance that will happen
My hunch is that, except for Biden, every other Democrat running for the nomination will do everything in his/her power to keep this from going to the second round of voting when they -- the hopeful candidates -- will lose all relevancy.

The Book Page

Lamarck's Revenge: How Epigenetics Is Revolutionizing Our Understanding of Evolution's Past and Present, Peter Ward, c. 2018.

  • Amazon, hard cover: $11.20 (free with points/cash back); today/now;
  • Barnes and Noble: $37 with 10% off as a B&N member; tomorrow, maybe the next day;
Don't let me over-think this.


  1. Sanders-Warren would be an interesting ticket. . .

    1. An absolutely perfect fit, and I bet they would both consider it.

  2. Have any of them reached a true level of relevancy? Except in the confines of their own bubble? If they could clone the best of the top 3, maybe they get a candidate that could compete with POTUS.

    1. Agree completely. My concern is that the American electorate is not as rational as you and I are.

  3. Sleepy Joe is going to get this. Poca and Barry Sanders are too left wing to wing the general (yes, I get the attraction in a primary, but cooler heads will prevail). Butt-gig has his panties more twisted than Poca, even if he is a centrist on policy, like Biden.

    Yeah, Joe is old and not that bright. But it's not like the Donald is a rocket scientist either. And the blacks will vote for him out of Obama loyalty. Think it's really the Donks' best shot.

    1. I can't disagree. But, wow, if the super-delegates steal this nomination from Sanders, a lot of Democrats will stay home.

    2. Very few 'rats will stay home because of that. Lesser of two evils (in their minds). Just like few 'pukes stayed home with Trump.

      It's like that every year. You know that. Except in 2008, I really did stay home (voted Libertarian) because McCain voted for the bailout. And then in 2012 I stayed home from apathy. But in 2016, I followed the fold and same in 2004.

    3. You are probably correct. I have some thoughts on turnout but my thoughts might be misinterpreted and cause me more attention than I need so I will hold my thoughts (at least for now).