Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Active Rig Count Trending Toward 50; Six Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- January 14, 2020

Dow hits all-time high, despite AAPL being down. AAPL was responsible for one-third of Dow's move from 28,000 to 29,000. JPM and Citigroup report huge 4Q19 earnings; Wells Fargo misses badly. JP Morgan best year for any bank ever. Ever. Wells Fargo still trying to pull out of their "fake accounts" scandal.

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BRK: Dow up over 120 points; Dow hits 29,000, all time high and BRK-B pulls back. Both AAPL and Wells Fargo are down today.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5167553651

Six wells coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, January 14, 2020: 41 for the month; 41 for the quarter; 41 for the year:
  • 36400, SI/NC, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-3H, Mandaree, no production data,
  • 35690, SI/NC, BR, Tailgunner 1E MBH, North Fork,
  • 35503, 1,504, CLR, Weisz 5-11H1, Pleasnt Valley, t11/19; cum 27K in 24 days;
  • 35117, 502, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 11-30 3T, Banks, t7/19; cum 57K 11/19; 26K month;
  • 35022, 361, Lime Rock, Anderson 13-24-2TFH, Alger, t7/19; cum 47K 11/19; 15K month;
  • 34829, drl, Hess, HA-Nelson A-LE-152-95-3427H-1, Hawkeye,
RBN Energy: Western Midstream's D-J Basin crude gathering systems, part 5.
Occidental Petroleum’s recent acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum made Oxy the #1 producer in the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin and gave it a majority stake in Western Midstream Partners, which owns crude-gathering and other midstream assets in the D-J, the Permian and the Marcellus.
While Western Midstream’s gathering focus had been on helping Anadarko meet its own midstream needs, Oxy sees the partnership taking on a broader role as a provider of gathering services to third parties as well. Toward that end, Oxy and Western Midstream a few days ago announced a series of agreements designed to allow Western Midstream to operate as an independent company. Today, we continue a series on crude-related infrastructure in the D-J with a look at Western Midstream’s gathering and related assets owned in part by the basin’s largest oil, natural gas and NGL producer.


  1. Shaleprofile is up with their ND info for November. They regularly get the info a little early and have matched the NDIC a few days later.


    This month, they didn't give us the exact info on total production (about 1.5 MM bopd) versus hz only (gave exact number). Their focus is really the hz wells. In the past, they have sometimes given the exact overall info as well. But in any case, sounds like a very small drop, about 1,000 bopd. So essentially flat. Gas was up and broke 3.1 MM bopd.

    Good article overall, but some small crit/comments:

    1. He notes DUC depletion but I would be a bit wary of interpreting that:

    (A) He uses Frac Focus, but doesn't model it like EIA does. This might be better than how ND does it. But it's prone to a lag error (like TX production). You can see this if you look at how the OCT19 number of DUCs changed from last month to this month. Grew from 725 to 744. In comparison, the OCT18 numbers had no change (767 and 767).

    (b) There seems to be some seasonality of DUCs. Building in the winter when it is harder to do completions than to drill and then falling from ~May to ~NOV. So you can't really intuit a general trend when looking at such seasonality. In fact the OCT19 number (744, perhaps not yet final, may go up more) is not that different from the OCT18 number (767, looks final).

    2. Says well quality unchanged since 2017. I think this is close to fair. Especially in contrast to the massive improvements prior to that (while the peak oilers were saying sweet spots were done many years ago!). That said, the "cum" view does show s small improvement from 17 to 18. And a tiny improvement from 18 to 19. You know the peak oilers would be talking about getting worse, if those changes had gone the other way!

    3. There is a very interesting figure at the bottom of the article where he shows a view not normally published. Shows the DUCs by year spudded. I get the following inferences:

    A. Most of the DUCs are normal inventory. Relatively few "dead DUCs". In contrast to the peaker complainers. That said there are probably some dead DUCs.

    B. 2016 has almost no DUCS left. 2015 has guite a lot. Seems to show that 2016 was only sweet spot drilling (mix enrichment) and thus had no dead DUCs. 2015 in contrast has a higher percentage and absolute number of dead DUCs. This despite more time. So there may be some dead DUCs still in there.

    C. Pretty small amount of 14 and before DUCs.

    D. Presumably looking at abandonmment (temp and permanent) would also be revealing, but I haven't structured this analysis and may lack the paid version to really investigate this.

    4. As usual, there is sort of a straddling the line on EUR ("ultimate return") where he claims a log rate to cum plot gives insights on EUR, but doesn't commit to an interpretation. In the past, the peakers have gone to town a bit on this view, without detailing their assumptions.

    1. I've re-posted this to the main body of the blog:


      That's where I will my comments.