Monday, May 25, 2020

See You All Tomrrow -- Good Luck To All -- May 25, 2020

Notes From All Over -- Late Evening Edition -- Memorail Day -- 2020

NASCAR: wow, this is quite incredible. NASCAR Coca-Cola yesterday; NASCAR XFinity series tonight; truck series tomorrow night, and then Wednesday, NASCAR Cup Series at Charlotte again, tomorrow night. Wow! Hard to believe. NASCAR taking advantage of this lull in live sports. Good for them. I don't miss the fans at the track at all.
Eighteen laps to go in tonight's race. Kyle Busch in fourth, second row on the re-start. This could be quite a finish. On the re-start, Kyle moves to third. Crash before the first lap after the re-start is completed; ninth caution. Kyle will still be in the second row on the next re-start.
Twelve to go on the re-start. Cindric-Gragson-Kyle. Kyle moves ot second, now takes the lead. Kyle leads with ten to go. It was the new tires. Another caution with eight to go. Amazing how good these guys are. A single car near-spin; driver saves the car; and, no one  hits him. Pretty amazing. Kyle was pulling away; had there been no caution, Kyle would have taken this race by several car lengths. Now, a re-start.
Four to go on the re-start. Kyle-Cindric-Gragson-Burton. Overtime? Very likely.
Yeah, there it is. Great re-start. For about four seconds. Fairly big crash; several cars taken out, including Gragson.  It will be quite awhile clearing up the track. Then, green flag, white flag, checkered flag, finish.
Holy mackerel. Re-start. Cindric takes the lead over Kyle Busch. The latter fights back; really, really aggressive. Busch wins. Cindric third. Daniel Hemric second.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Futures: look really, really good. Maybe Governor Cuomo will have something good to say.

Wuhan flu: say what you want, but these numbers are really looking good -- ranked in order of "new deaths" yesterday.


Geico: a new Geico television commercial has an actor couple that looks very, very much like the Sussex Royals. Wow, I wish Geico would make this a new series -- like Flo (Progressive) and the "caveman" (Geico). A Sussex-Royals-lookalike-couple would be pushing the "advertising" envelope. I saw, "go for it." See spot here.

Got Covid? The fatalities will all be tested for corona virus, I assume, and if positive ....


MAGA -- more opportunities:


No comment:


A CLR Simmental Well With Jump In Production -- May 25, 2020

The well:
  • 18138, 1,161, CLR, Simmental 1-21H, 2 secs, 20k in 30 days, Elm Tree (first reported Jan 13, 2010); t12/09; cum 367K 3/20;
Production period of interest:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20203133013307180663185741160
BAKKEN2-20202933983192242467595964205
BAKKEN1-20203140364210295174856606254
BAKKEN12-20193145404623289876496907106
BAKKEN11-20192949414945330777696891310
BAKKEN10-20192024462140180829122037608
BAKKEN9-2019241397163164620391324370
BAKKEN8-2019311720161853326171598404
BAKKEN7-20191212211208356168301438
BAKKEN6-20192745014768290666412855837
BAKKEN5-20193184678683472213084117211305
BAKKEN4-20193091658974821112871195710299
BAKKEN3-201915464642918249621525213410
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-2019002590000
BAKKEN12-201831138213814133050234093
BAKKEN11-2018301394128537429212199107
 

A Rimrock Moccasin Creek Well Has Just Gone Over 500K -- May 25, 2020

The well:
  • 18295, 1,260, Whiting/KOG, Moccasin Creek 16-3-11H, 1 sec, t2/10; cum 501K 3/20;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2020311044987514228501546
BAKKEN2-20202910851058608211601425
BAKKEN1-2020311226129110642172391394
BAKKEN12-2019145173726201354590440
BAKKEN11-201917225240147399015
BAKKEN10-2019314324512773900
BAKKEN9-20193023926319728013
BAKKEN8-201931506548153796057
BAKKEN7-201931572588207778039

An MRO Bailey Well Has Just Gone Off Line -- May 25, 2020

The well:
  • 18196, 376, Marathon, Andi Schollmeyer 41-5H; t4/10; cum 149K 2/20;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202000960000
BAKKEN2-20202644255651437849156
BAKKEN1-20203156256166447635225
BAKKEN12-20193158669166359613363
BAKKEN11-2019305694956525828361
BAKKEN10-201931596594688608171215
BAKKEN9-20193058255067357832043
BAKKEN8-20193161165371362738818
BAKKEN7-20193163164372464738142


Graphic:


A Whiting Kannianen Middle Bakken Well Has Come Back On Line -- May 25, 2020

The well:
  • 18298, 3,422, Kannianen 44-33H (Whiting); t1/10; cum 702K 3/20; off line since 4/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202051111101231841831
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-201920694754370135713210
BAKKEN3-2019211003103353223921980
BAKKEN2-20192811761137138270126450
BAKKEN1-20193114831465197321031480

A Whiting Odgen TFH Well Has Come Back On Line -- May 25, 2020

The well:
  • 18233, 1,239, Ogden 11-3TFH, TFS (Whiting), Sanish, t11/09; cum 278K 3/20; off line 7/19; back on line 3/20;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20202259158863942435074
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-201900170000
BAKKEN7-2019102342291453363160
BAKKEN6-201930601612576844633151
BAKKEN5-201930491504440846663124
BAKKEN4-2019305725594237837240
BAKKEN3-2019255205274157056560

A New Wrinkle In The Bakken -- May 25, 2020

This is well beyond my "pay grade." I have never followed the "language of leases" in the Bakken. I don't think I've ever seen a lease except maybe a long, long time ago when I was visiting Williston. I never paid much attention if I did.

Some basics:
  • the concept of "lease held by production";
  • early on, operators put in a at least one producing well to hold their leases;
  • as more wells came in, there was less chance of losing a lease due to lack of production;
However, and here's the wrinkle:
  • now that the Bakken is shutting down, there are a few "loners" out there;
  • "loners": where a single well is still holding a lease (generally a drilling unit of 640 acre or 1280 acres) all by its "lone self";
  • what happens if that "loner" shuts down? 
I don't know. Maybe readers can enlighten me.

I know the state has rules about how long a well can be inactive before it must be plugged and abandoned. At that point, if it's a "loner," does the operator lose its lease?

My understanding is that the state is quite lenient in the length of time a well can be shut down, and waivers can be awarded.

But what about contracts or leases between the operator and the leaseholder? A reader informs me that his lease on "a loner" says that if there is no production in 120 days, the lease is null and void. His "loner" has not had production in well over a 120 days.

The reader wonders how this affects the lease on that drilling unit?

Again, this is well beyond my "pay grade." I don't follow mineral leases; I don't visit social media sites for mineral owners. The answers may be obvious. I don't know. A reader brought it to my attention. It's not something I'm generally interested in regarding the Bakken but it seems to be an interesting question.

More than likely, I'm missing something obvious.

But I'm always learning something.

One last thing: there is a Madison well in that section that is still producing. I don't think a "Madison" well holds a lease by production for a "Bakken" well but again, I've long forgotten (or never knew).

***************************************
Here's A Great Example 
Of A "Loner"

Why hasn't EOG permanently abandoned this well? This well was drilled back in 2009; more than a decade later it has produced less than 30,000 bbls, and yet it remains active.
  • 17996, 58, EOG, Burke 9-10H, Stanley, t7/09; cum 30K 3/20;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20201510513931815403
BAKKEN2-20202910510058229400
BAKKEN1-202031909963431400
BAKKEN12-20193111010865731400
BAKKEN11-20193010610661030400
BAKKEN10-20193112411963631400

Production dates of interest:
  • 2/18 - 6/18: off line / no production for 113 days;
  • 7/13 - 9/13: off line / no production for 63 days;
  • otherwise, has never gone a month without no production

The graphic:


***************************************
Another Example Of A "Loner"

The well:
  • 17946, 86, Koda Resources/Newfield, Trigger 1-31H (1 sec), Fertile Valley/wildcat near Grenora; on my watch list; this is too bad; the rumor was that this was a "good" well; 47K 3/20; 
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20202817422928812012
BAKKEN2-202026149237258202
BAKKEN1-202031203220227101
BAKKEN12-20193117821935817000
BAKKEN11-201930185034830505
BAKKEN10-20193122346545331303
BAKKEN9-20192324004143400124
BAKKEN8-2019128223814111500
BAKKEN7-20193126621851231000

The graphic:

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- May 25, 2020

This is remarkable -- the initial production for wells coming off confidential list this week. Work has essentially come to a stop in the Bakken, literally "overnight."

The wells:
  • 37047, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 10-16H, Elm Tree, no production data,  
  • 36157, conf, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-12H, Eightmile,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2020173890
2-2020157010
1-2020262160
12-2019302450
11-2019190
  • 35192, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6B, Siverston, no production data, 
  • 33838, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 9-8-5-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake, no production data, 
  • 36471, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 2-10-11-12H, Big Bend, no production data, 
  • 33839, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 4-8-5-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data, 
  • 36208, conf, XTO, FBIR Baker 34X-25D, Heart Butte, no production data, 
  • 34256, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 3-8-5-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,  
  • 33840, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 10-8-5-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data, 
  • 36209, conf, XTO, FBIR Baker 34X-25H, Heart Butte, no production data, 
  • 36961, conf, WPX, Meadowlark 6-34HQL, Heart Butte, no production data, 
  • 36472, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 4-10-7TFH, Big Bend, no production data, 
  • 36210, conf, XTO, FBIR Baker 34X-25C, Heart Butte, no production data, 
  • 33841, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 5-8-5-157N-99W TFH, Dublin, no production data,   
  • 37203, drl/drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 11-8-5-157N-99W-LL TFH,  
  • 36962, conf, WPX, Meadowlark 6-34HA, Heart Butte, no production data, 
  • 36599, conf, Whiting, Erickson 14-23 2H, Glass Bluff,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2020179350
2-202016755444
1-202082821408
12-2019278263244
11-2019644115
  • 36129, conf, Whiting, Evan TTT 41-4HU, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20202547418508
2-2020264300
1-2020288820
12-2019276660
  • 36963, drl/drl, WPX, Meadowlark 6-34HW, Heart Butte, no production data, 
  • 36211, drl/drl, XTO, FBIR Baker 34X-25G, Heart Butte, no production data, 
  • 36964, drl/drl, WPX, Meadowlark 6-34HB, Heart Butte, no production data, 
  • 36792, drl/drl, Sinclair, Harris Federal 3-32H, Lone Butte, no production data, 
  • 36598, 2,376, Whiting, Erickson 14-23-3H, Glass Bluff, t12/19; cum 73K 3/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20203015999161132158983409450
BAKKEN2-2020291604315866465994654568642
BAKKEN1-2020251529815486600515575271012396
BAKKEN12-2019232489424403715021606292418328
BAKKEN11-20194458457653937115338
  • 36358, drl/drl, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 2-12-1H,  Sand Creek, no production data, 
  • 34259, drl/drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 6-8-5-157N-99W-LL TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data, 
  • 36597, 1,968, Whiting, Erickson 44-35HU, Glass Bluff, t12/19; cum 75K 3/20:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2020311553515542166121924021273
BAKKEN2-202029155331572572971784565616576
BAKKEN1-2020311926919260867319635266016292
BAKKEN12-2019302318023870195724834391620243
BAKKEN11-201951946653871616442771271
  • 36357, drl/drl, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 9-12-1TFH, Sand Creek, no production data, 
  • 36132, 1,102, Whiting, Ed TTT Federal 43-4H, Sanish, t11/19; cum 111K 3/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2020312345423463650421171204750
BAKKEN2-2020292541525721832218827182400
BAKKEN1-20203129046293551588412529120940
BAKKEN12-20193125806251031931118689112186828
BAKKEN11-20198704568527697628206021
  • 34258, drl/drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 2-8-5-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data;

Notes From All Over, Monday Morning Memorial Day -- Mid-Morning Edition -- May 25, 2020

It's possible I'm misreading this story but if accurate it validates all those earlier stories that the "Tesla battery" was unsafe at any speed, to coin a phrase. LOL.

Despite the perception that tethered vehicles already have a too-limited range, apparently the industry is going to substitute safety for range.

From ArgusMedia (caution: acronym overload follows)
Chinese auto manufacturer BYD and US EV producer Tesla have released all-electric vehicles that use lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries.

BYD has released the Qin and Qin Pro, which has a driving range of 300 miles. The driving range for Qin was undisclosed.
Tesla has released a new model for its Model 3 series, with more details unavailable, according to the latest declaration catalogue issued by China's ministry of industry and information technology (MIIT).

MIIT's declaration catalogue includes 12 new energy vehicles (NEVs) that use LFP batteries, accounting for 24 percent of a total of 49 NEVs.

Suppliers of the LFP batteries are: BYD, CATL, Gotion High-Tech, Penghui, Anchi New Energy and Suzhou KeYi New Power.
BYD will also provide LFP batteries to GAC and Changan Ford, in addition to feeding its own EV production.

LFP batteries are promoted as having better safety performance and lower average costs, although its energy density and EV driving ranges are shorter than nickel-cobalt-manganese/nickel-cobalt-aluminium (NCM/NCA) batteries. Many Chinese producers have put more effort into developing LFP batteries amid lower government subsidies.
I know a lot of millennials will wonder where the acronym LFP for lithium-iron-phosphate batteries came from but we'll leave that for another day.

**********************************
A Sophia Story

My wife re-told this story. I had not heard it before.

When Sophie was about two and half years old, her family visited us in San Pedro, CA, at Christmas, where my wife's "ancestral" home was located.

Sophia and her family had flown to Los Angeles from Texas, but then drove the long trip from southern California to Portland, OR, without many breaks, to visit aunt Laura and her husband Tim.

Following their visit, and on their way to skiing, Sophia's family was preparing to get back into their rental yet again when Sophie refused to get into the car. She had had enough driving around.

Her dad told Sophia to get in the car immediately or walk!

Sophie started walking away. Aunt Laura heard her mutter, “I want a new family!”

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- May 25, 2020

Monday, June 1, 2020: 4 for the month; 149 for the quarter, 376 for the year:
37047, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 10-16H, 
36157, conf, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-12H,
35192, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6B, 
33838, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 9-8-5-157N-99W,

Sunday, May 31, 2020: 95 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 372 for the year:
None. There was no November 31.

Saturday, May 30, 2020: 95 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 372 for the year:
36471, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 2-10-11-12H,
33839, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 4-8-5-157N-99W TFH,

Friday, May 29 2020: 93 for the month; 143 for the quarter, 370 for the year:
36208, conf, XTO, FBIR Baker 34X-25D,
34256, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 3-8-5-157N-99W MBH, 
33840, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 10-8-5-157N-99W TFH,

Thursday, May 28 2020: 90 for the month; 140 for the quarter, 367 for the year:
36209, conf, XTO, FBIR Baker 34X-25H,

Wednesday, May 27, 2020: 89 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 366 for the year:
36961, conf, WPX, Meadowlark 6-34HQL,
36472, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 4-10-7TFH,
36210, conf, XTO, FBIR Baker 34X-25C,
33841, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 5-8-5-157N-99W TFH

Tuesday, May 26, 2020: 85 for the month; 135 for the quarter, 362 for the year:
37203, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 11-8-5-157N-99W-LL TFH
36962, conf, WPX, Meadowlark 6-34HA, 
36599, conf, Whiting, Erickson 14-23 2H,
36129, conf, Whiting, Evan TTT 41-4HU,

Monday, May 25, 2020: 81for the month; 131 for the quarter, 358 for the year:
36963, conf, WPX, Meadowlark 6-34HW,
36211, conf, XTO, FBIR Baker 34X-25G, 

Sunday, May 24, 2020: 79 for the month; 129 for the quarter, 356 for the year:
36964, conf, WPX, Meadowlark 6-34HB, 
36792, conf, Sinclair, Harris Federal 3-32H, 
36598, conf, Whiting, Erickson 14-23-3H, 
36358, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 2-12-1H, 
34259, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 6-8-5-157N-99W-LL TFH,

Saturday, May 23, 2020: 74 for the month; 124 for the quarter, 351 for the year:
36597, conf, Whiting, Erickson 44-35HU, 
36357, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 9-12-1TFH,
36132, conf, Whiting, Ed TTT Federal 43-4H, 
34258, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 2-8-5-157N-99W MBH, 

Amazon Is Back; Notes From All Over -- Nothing About The Bakken -- May 25, 2020

Same day delivery. I ordered writing pens and journals from Amazon just one minute ago -- 7:51 a.m. May 25, 2020 -- I expected delivery some time this week. Amazon says the order will be delivered by 1:00 p.m. today. Delivery free and items free with "cash back." Invoice: $0.00. What a great country.

******************************** 
Global Warming 
North Texas

Wow, another day of rain. North Texas has already seen a lot of rain this spring, and the forecast calls for rain and thunderstorms all day. DFW monthly and annual precipitation data at this link.
  • May, 2020: currently at about 4 inches of rain for this month, we have no chance of exceeding the drenching 17 inches of rain in May, 2015;
  • April, 2020: at 1.90 inches, a fairly dry April, historically;
  • March, 2020: a whopping 6.75 inches; going back to 1898
    • March, 2002: 7.39 inches
  • February, 2020: 3.88 inches; going back to 1898:
    • February, 2018: a whopping 11.31 inches; several other years with more February rain than Feb 2020
  • January, 2020: 5.00 inches; going back to 1898, only two previous months of January exceeded that:
    • 2012: 6.18 inches
    • 2007: 5.58 inches
Right now, 9:05 a.m. CT, another huge downpour. Amazing.

Enjoying breakfast on the covered patio, listening to non-stop Chris Isaak provided by Alexa.

************************************
Global Warming
Wyoming

From a reader:


*************************************
One Last Note On Wuhan Flu Today

Brazil: US bans non-US citizens from Brazil entering the US, due to Wuhan flu. See stats here.