Monday, December 30, 2019

North Dakota Has New Record Population: 762,062 In 2019

The Bismarck Tribune and The Williston Herald are both reporting a new record population for North Dakota, 2019, at 762,062 people.
  • June 5, 2019: 760,900; at that time North Dakota's growth rate was "an astounding" 1.99%, which ranked second in the nation;
  • up "considerably" from 672,000 recorded in 2010
  • 762-672/672 = 13.4% increase in 10 years
  • North Dakota: US state with the largest percentage in population growth since 2011
  • current growth rate is second only to the District of Columbia
  • projections, North Dakota:
    • 800,000 by 2020
    • one million by 2040
  • city populations, interactive map
    • Williston: 24,494
The Bismarck Tribune is also reporting that a family that owns a Billings County ranch has filed a lawsuit over a proposed bridge slated to cross the Little Missouri River. 

*******************************
Movie Night

Bombshell: great movie. Loved it.

Roger Ailes was outed/ousted in 2016. After he was fired by the Murdoch family, the older Murdoch took over control of the network.

That was about three years ago. It is with some irony, then, that this was on The Drudge Report just as the movie was playing across the country:



The Murdoch family is portrayed in a neutral to positive light. Ailes, of course, was not, but all-in-all, fair and balanced. 

***********************************
The Book Page

I can't remember what book I was reading but there was a nice discussion of cochineal. It might have been the history of the East India Company, but I forget. I was vaguely aware of cochineal but only vaguely.

Hold that thought.

I know nothing about Campari. I've seen ads for Campari over the years but never knew what it was.

Finally, from this site, some interesting factoids/facts about Campari. The most interesting factoid/fact:
  • strict vegans cannot drink Campari made in some countries
  • the reason "egg" is sometimes listed as an ingredient in Campari
Nothing to do with cochineal: one of my all-time favorite television commercials:


Twelve DUCs Reported As Completed -- December 30, 2019

Active rigs:

$61.6312/30/201912/30/201812/30/201712/30/201612/30/2015
Active Rigs5566493961

Three new permits, #32787 - #32789, inclusive:
  • Operator: Kraken Operating, LLC
  • Field: Oliver (Williams County)
  • Comments: 
    • Kraken has permits for a 3-well Marcy pad in section 24-157-98, Oliver oil field
Twelve producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 30993, 65, BR, Gudmunson 6-1-26TFH, Elidah, t11/19; cum --;
  • 30992, 101, BR, Gudmonson 7-1-26MBH, Elidah, t11/19; cum --;
  • 30991, 176, BR, Gudcadia 8-1-26TFH-ULW, Dimmick Lake, t11/19; cum --;
  • 33786, 290, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Lloyd 6-27-34-157N-100W TFH, Marmon, t11/19; cum 4K over 28 days;
  • 33784, 1,039, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Lloyd 2-27-34-157N-100W MBH, Marmon, t11/19; cum 10K over 30 days;
  • 33782, 122, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Lloyd 7-27-34-157N-100W TFH, Marmon, t11/19; cum --;
  • 33785, 161, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Elena 2-22-15-157N-100W MBH, Marmon, t11/19; cum 8K over 30 days;
  • 33787, 41, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Elena 6-22-15-157N-100W TFH, Marmon, t11/19; cum 4K over 30 days
  • 33783, 307, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Elena 7-22-15-157N-100W TFH, Marmon, t11/19; cum --;
  • 34882, 4,018, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-4, Antelope-Sanish, t11/19; cum 21K over 12 days;
  • 34883, 3,757, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-3, Antelope-Sanish, t11/19; cum 28K over 17 days;
  • 34884, 3,519, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-2, Antelope, Sanish, t11/19; cum 25K over 18 days.
Neighboring wells to the Hess AN-Norby wells:
  • 28257, to the west, a very nice well that was taken off line 9/19; 2,059, XTO, Nelson Federal 41X-5D, Antelope-Sanish, t10/15; cum 287K 101/9;
  • 17609, to the east, a big well that was taken off line 9/19; 504, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-1, Antelope-Sanish, t1/09; cum 358K 10/19;
  • 18909, to the east, a big well, not taken off line; 674, CLR, Rollefstad 2-3H, Antelpe-Sanish, t8/10; cum 314K 10/19;
Note: these neighboring wells will all be re-fracked at some point.

To the east of the CPEUSC wells, is another 6-well CPEUSC pad, all wells on confidential status with a rig on site; the rig is sitting on #34166 (TFH) and #37003 (MBH), both with these footages: 256 FNL 280 FWL.

Two older wells near the Gudmonson/Gudcadia wells:
  • 19548, 508, CLR, Gudmunson 1-26H, Elidah, t10/11; cum 371K 10/19; off line for two months, 7/19 - 9/19;
  • 25147, 2,256, BR, Gudmunson 11-26TFH, t6/13; cum 272K 10/19; has not been taken off line;

Making America Great, Off Shore Drilling -- December 30, 2019

US returns to being a net oil exporter. Rigzone.
Thanks to the shale oil revolution, for the first time since the 1940s, the United States exported more oil than it imported last September. In that month, U.S. exports of crude oil and refined products exceeded imports by 89,000 barrels a day, according to EIA statistics.
This marks a significant turning point, for only a decade ago, American imports exceeded exports by a hefty 12 million barrels a day. Commenting on this change, Bob McNally, a former energy consultant to President George W. Bush and president of the consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group, said,  “the U.S. return to being a net exporter serves to remind how the oil industry can deliver surprises -- in this case, the shale oil revolution -- that upend global oil prices, production, and trade flows.”
The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes the U.S. is on track to become a sustained net oil exporter in either late 2020 or early 2021. It forecast an increase in U.S. exports of crude and refined products from 550,000 b/d in October 2019 to average 750,000 b/d in 2020. This uptick will have a positive impact on the U.S. trade balance.  In 2018, th U.S.petroleum trade deficit stood at $62 billion or 10 percent of the country’s trade balance according to Rystad Energy. Thanks to the ongoing growth in shale tight oil, the U.S. could enjoy a petroleum trade surplus in 2020.
The shale oil revolution also has geopolitical consequences, not least in that it will weaken the influence of America’s traditional Middle Eastern oil suppliers, such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, on Washington’s foreign policy.    
Offshore drilling poised for an upswing in 2020? Rigzone.
Offshore drilling has been depressed but, now with increased activity, oil production could peak in 2020 before joining shale in a slowdown that could dramatically rewrite market supply predictions. Overall rig demand is forecast to rise from 473 units in 2019 to 550 units in 2021, an increase of 16 percent according to IHS forecasts. Jeremy Lake, Vice President, Transocean, confirms the 6 percent rise in active floating rigs in the first half of this year and forecasts a market utilization rate above 80 percent. Lake also expects demand for jack-up rigs to increase from 345 units in 2019 to 388 units in 2021, a rise from 69 to 84 floaters and the number of drillships to increase from 59 to 78.  
Gulf of Mexico oil output targeting record year. Rigzone.
Despite a massive downturn in investment in the U.S. Federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM), industry experts including Rystad Energy and the U.S. based Energy Information Agency (EIA) are anticipating that 2020 will be yet another record year. “2020 is expected to be another record year with average production above 1.9 million barrels per day,” states Joachim Milling Gregersen, an analyst on Rystad Energy’s Upstream team. This is an additional 100,000 barrels a day on 2019 despite the increasing ferocity of the regular hurricanes in the region, which force the entire industry to close down for days at a time. For example, Hurricane Barry caused a drop of 700,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) in U.S. crude production during the week of July 19th, according to the U.S. EIA.
Note:
  • GofM: 1.9 million bopd
  • North Dakota: 1.5 million bopd

Re-Fracking In The Bakken -- The Returns Are Going To Infinity -- December 30, 2019

With regard to the subject line: yes, I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. My focus is on the mom-and-pop mineral owners in North Dakota.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Re-posting. This is mostly for newbies. Earlier today I posted:
Shale bust redux.
For those who subscribe to The WSJ, you probably saw the "as shale wells age, gap between forecasts and performance grows" by Rebecca Elliott and Christopher M. Matthews. If the story sounds familiar, it's because it is. This this has been previously posted. From the same writers, almost exactly one year ago, January 2, 2019, also in The WSJ, "fracking's secret problem -- oil wells aren't producing as much as forecast." And then again, September 29, 2019, by the same two writers, RE and CMM, "shale boom is slowing just when the world needs oil most."  Really? Two final nominees for the Geico Rock Award for 2019.
I don't know if the Permian is different than the Bakken when it comes to fracking, re-working, mini-fracks, halo effect, advantaged oil, major re-fracks, etc., but I think the jury is still out with regard to the thesis that Elliott and Matthews would suggest. Below is not an atypical example of what is going on in the Bakken.

In the data below, note:
  • from the original completion date, 6/08, to 5/18, ten years, this well produced 123,000 bbls of crude oil; 
  • then after the re-frack in early, 2018, the cumulative by 10/19, had jumped to 471,000 bbls of crude oil
  • this well, after a re-frack -- and a well that could have easily been written off, abandoned, and plugged -- came roaring back to produce 348,000 bbls of crude oil between in about eighteen months, and with oil about $20/bbl higher -- and the only cost -- the cost of fracking -- at a time when service costs and sand are at record lows
Good, bad, or indifferent, the mom-and-pop mineral owners are probably wondering what just happened when they opened their most recent royalty checks. Good for them.

*******************************
A Re-Fracked Well In The Bakken

The well:
  • 17100, 240, CLR, Mountain Gap 31-10H, Rattlesnake Point, t6/08; cum 123K 5/18; cum 471K 10/19;
We now have the re-frack data: 57 stages; 13.93 million lbs; test 3/18:

Production data before/after the re-frack:
BAKKEN9-20183025164252122623631413278813140
BAKKEN8-2018313599735753453744292442309210
BAKKEN7-20183141189414275749245918433442169
BAKKEN6-20183052661527136344257604528864326
BAKKEN5-20181726682264103645028245211007145
BAKKEN4-201856946945436137901379
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-2017221712403388880
BAKKEN5-201731296239371221166

Production following original frack:
BAKKEN12-20083126452442285143014300
BAKKEN11-20082830423128407341634160
BAKKEN10-20083040063566101936453046599
BAKKEN9-2008252005229118717261545181
BAKKEN8-2008313844364352734843319165
BAKKEN7-20083139694095104330202952725
BAKKEN6-200830591456482002390303903
BAKKEN5-20083116002305000

Corpus Christi: Biggest Boom Since WWII? -- December 30, 2019

Is Corpus Christi undergoing a boom like never seen since WWII? I don't know but it certainly seems that Corpus Christi has been in the news a lot this year. I noticed that when I was going through the top stories for the year. Then, today, RBN Energy has another update on the city. Re-posting (and archived):
RBN Energy: Plains All American's Cactus II ramps up Corpus deliveries.
t’s safe to say that Permian producers had a good Christmas. Sure, their stock prices may be off a bit and their rig counts are down. But the absolute prices they are paid for their crude oil are up by almost $20/bbl versus this time in December 2018, and the price spreads between the Permian and neighboring markets have significantly narrowed as a result.
What’s driving this change? There are a variety of factors at play, but chief among them is the new pipeline infrastructure that has helped lift Permian producers’ oil price realizations. Today, we check in on the status of one of the major new pipelines that have contributed to the seismic shift in the Permian oil market this year.
From August 13, 2019:
RBN Energy: Plains All American Cactus II oil pipeline nears commercial operation. [We posted a screenshot from twitter regarding this yesterday.) This will be a big story over time. Archived.
It’s no secret by now that Permian oil markets have struggled over the last two years as nagging takeaway-pipeline constraints put a damper on production growth and, at times, hammered pricing in the basin. Like the Houston Astros’ opponents in the AL West, though, the days are numbered now for Permian oil market constraints, as two new large-diameter pipelines from West Texas to Corpus Christi will be in-service by the end of the month. One of those pipes, Plains All American’s Cactus II, is set to enter service this week.
Cactus II consists of 575 miles of new 26-inch-diameter pipeline and extends from McCamey, TX, in the southern Midland Basin to delivery points near Corpus Christi. Note that Cactus II can also access the oil hub at Wink, TX, in the Delaware Basin via a capacity lease on another Plains-operated pipeline. Also, while Cactus II closely follows the route of Plains’ original Cactus Pipeline , the two pipelines do not share facilities. From the Permian, Cactus II extends southeast toward the Texas Gulf Coast and has been completed to Ingleside, TX, which is just across the bay from Corpus Christi. Plains confirmed last week that Cactus II is in the process of taking linefill in preparation for entering commercial service this week. Plains is also working to complete a final segment of Cactus II that will run from Taft, TX, to delivery points across the water from Ingleside along the Corpus Christi Ship Channel. This segment is expected to be completed by the end of the first quarter of 2020.
From August 20, 2019, Platt's:
From S&P Global:
The first US crude cargo originating from the new Cactus II pipeline loaded onto the Aframax Paramount Hatteras out of the Buckeye Terminal in Corpus Christi, Texas.

The Paramount Hatteras is currently stationary near GOLA after arriving there Monday. It's likely the ship is headed to the terminal to conduct a reverse lightering job for a VLCC set to export.
CFlow shows the Paramount Hatteras anchored next to the Irini N Lemos, a currently unladen VLCC. SK Energy booked the Irini N Lemos for a US Gulf Coast-South Korea run at lump sum $4.975 million, loading August 17-21, according to Platts fixture logs.

".... soon be the first in the Port of Corpus Christi to export these barrels transported to South Texas via one of three large Permian long-haul pipeline projects," ...

On August 12, Trafigura announced in a press release that the 670,000 b/d Cactus II pipeline began service to Ingleside, Texas. Cactus II service to Corpus Christi is expected to start in the first quarter of 2020.

Cactus II will be joined by the 400,000 b/d EPIC crude pipeline and the 900,000 b/d Gray Oak pipeline, both expected to start up by year's end.
From September 10, 2019:
RBN Energy: Corpus Christi crude oil exports surge to a record.
Despite last month’s much-publicized start-up of two new crude oil pipelines from the Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast — Plains All American’s Cactus II and EPIC Crude Holding’s EPIC Pipeline — tangible evidence of how much crude is actually moving on those pipelines has been hard to come by. That’s because crude oil pipelines don’t post daily flow data, like some natural gas pipelines do, and shipper volumes are a closely held secret that often only becomes available long after the fact.
However, Cactus II and EPIC both deliver into the Corpus Christi, TX, market area, where a number of export facilities have been waiting to move Permian barrels out into the global market. We’ve been keeping a close eye on Corpus-area docks and have noticed a significant increase in export volumes over the last few days — a clear indication that Permian crude on Cactus II and EPIC has broken through to the global market. Today, we detail a recent rise in Corpus Christi oil export volumes driven by new supply from the Permian Basin.

Two Final Nominees For The 2019 Geico Rock Award -- December 30, 2019

Active rigs:

$62.0712/30/201912/30/201812/30/201712/30/201612/30/2015
Active Rigs5666493961

Wells coming off the confidential list: see long list below.

RBN Energy: MPLX's BANGL, fracs and exports plan. Archived.
Over the past two years, MPLX has been ramping up its midstream development activity in the Lone Star State, or more specifically in the “Permian-to-Gulf” market, where it’s been building or buying into gathering systems, gas processing plants, and crude and natural gas takeaway pipelines, among other things.
Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s midstream-focused master limited partnership also has been in hot pursuit of a number of possible NGL-related projects, including MPLX’s proposed Belvieu Alternative NGL (BANGL) Pipeline and three big fractionation plants in the Sweeny, TX, area, and a planned LPG export terminal in Texas City, TX.
As a group, these projects would require millions of barrels of underground salt-cavern storage capacity for y-grade and NGL purity products along the Texas coast, as well as multiple pipeline connections to move the stuff to where it needs to be.
Today, we continue our series on Gulf Coast NGL storage with a look at the NGL side of the MLP’s Permian-to-Gulf strategy.
RBN Energy: Plains All American's Cactus II ramps up Corpus deliveries.
t’s safe to say that Permian producers had a good Christmas. Sure, their stock prices may be off a bit and their rig counts are down. But the absolute prices they are paid for their crude oil are up by almost $20/bbl versus this time in December 2018, and the price spreads between the Permian and neighboring markets have significantly narrowed as a result. What’s driving this change? There are a variety of factors at play, but chief among them is the new pipeline infrastructure that has helped lift Permian producers’ oil price realizations. Today, we check in on the status of one of the major new pipelines that have contributed to the seismic shift in the Permian oil market this year.
Shale bust redux.
For those who subscribe to The WSJ, you probably saw the "as shale wells age, gap between forecasts and performance grows" by Rebecca Elliott and Christopher M. Matthews. If the story sounds familiar, it's because it is. This this has been previously posted. From the same writers, almost exactly one year ago, January 2, 2019, also in The WSJ, "fracking's secret problem -- oil wells aren't producing as much as forecast." And then again, September 29, 2019, by the same two writers, RE and CMM, "shale boom is slowing just when the world needs oil most."  Really? Two final nominees for the Geico Rock Award for 2019. 
Geico Rock Award: The nominees for the 2019 Geico Rock Award are tracked here.

Reply: in Forbes, September 6, 2019, Dan Eberhart had a nice reply, "no, shale's not dying, it's just maturing."

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Busy, Busy Day Today?

Unless I'm missing something, the NDIC has not posted IPs for wells coming off the confidential list two Saturdays ago (since Saturday, December 21, 2019). I just checked and going back to December 21, 2019, these wells are still listed as yet to come off the confidential list. It could be a very, very busy day. And I had planned to go to the movies with my wife today. Wow.

Monday, December 30, 2019: 98 for the month; 303 for the quarter:
  • 36370, conf, Newfield, Hoffman 150-98-18-19-10H, 
  • 36134, conf, XTO, Arlys 34X-31H, 
  • 35239, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Anderson 13-24-4TFH
  • 22300, SI/NC, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-2T, Eagle Nest, no production data,
Sunday, December 29, 2019: 94 for the month; 299 for the quarter:
  • 36369, conf, Newfield, Hoffman 150-98-18-19-5H, 
  • 22301, SI/NC, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-3B, Eagle Nest, no production data,
Saturday, December 28, 2019: 92 for the month; 297 for the quarter:
  • 36368, SI/NC, Newfield, Hoffman 150-98-18-19-5H, Siverston, no production data, 
  • 36133, SI/NC, XTO, Arlys Federal 34X-31C, Siverston, no production data,
  • 34835, 2,105, Enerplus, Eos 149-93-33D-28H-TF, Mandaree, t6/19; cum 95K 10/19;
  • 34776, 357, Enerplus, Thai 148-94-11C-2H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t6/19; cum 28K 10/19;
  • 30891, 776, Oasis, Stenberg 5199 11-97B, Poe, t7/19; cum 139K 101/9;
Friday, December 27, 2019: 87 for the month; 292 for the quarter:
  • 36367, SI/NC, Newfield, Hoffmann 150-98-17-20-5HLW, Siverston, no production data,
  • 35878, 1,344, Whiting, Domaskin 21-20HU, Sanish, t7/19; cum 65K 10/19;
  • 35875, 709, Whiting, Domaskin 34-17TFHU, Sanish, t7/19; cum 27K 10/19;
  • 35744, 411, Whiting, Ogden 41-9TFHU, Sanish, t7/19; cum 59K 10/19;
  • 35699, SI/NC, Slawson, Mole 6-20TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 34773, 573, Enerplus, Hidalgo 148-94-11C-2H-TF,  McGregory Buttes, t6/19; cum 63K 10/19;
Thursday, December 26, 2019: 81 for the month; 286 for the quarter:
  • 36366, SI/NC, Newfield, Hoffman 15-98-17-20-6H, Siverston, no production data,
  • 34836, 576, Enerplus, Nyx 149-93-33D-28H-TF, Mandaree, t6/19; cum 114K 10/19;
  • 30179, SI/NC, Slawson, Challenger Federal 7-29-32TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
Wednesday, December 25 2019: 78 for the month; 283 for the quarter:
  • 35782, 1,739, Hess, EN-Farhart-156-93-0409H-4, Baskin, t6/19; cum 86K 10/19;
  • 35698, SI/NC, Slawson, Mole 7-20TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
Tuesday, December 24, 2019: 76 for the month; 281 for the quarter:
  • 35903, SI/NC, Slawson, Orca Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 35570, 451, Whiting, Anderson 11-7-2TFH, Sanish, t7/19; cum 35K 10/19;
  • 35569, 1,276, Whiting, Anderson 11-2H, Sanish, t6/19; cum 70K 101/9;
  • 35120, 593, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 13-25 9T, Banks, t7/19; cum 99K 10/19;
  • 34837, 655, Enerplus, Homer 149-93-33D-28H-TF, Mandaree, t6/19; cum 87K 10/19;
  • 34774, 1,738, Enerplus, Ancho 148-94-11C-2H, McGregory Buttes, t6/19; cum 138K 10/19;
Monday, December 23, 2019: 70 for the month; 275 for the quarter:
  • 36524, SI/NC, Slawson, Challenger Federal 9-29-32H, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 36173, drl, XTO, Lavern 42X-14H, Capa,
  • 35902, SI/NC, Slawson, Tempest Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, no production data,
Sunday, December 22, 2019: 67 for the month; 272 for the quarter:
  • 36172, drl, XTO, Lavern 42X-14CXD, Capa,
  • 34838, 1,123, Enerplus, Hera 149-93-33D-28H, Mandaree, t6/19; cum 135K 10/19;
  • 30178, SI/NC, Slawson, Diamondback 1 SLH, Big Bend, no production data,
Saturday, December 21, 2019: 64 for the month; 269 for the quarter:
  • 36171, drl, XTO, Lavern 42X-14BXC, Capa,
  • 35901, SI/NC, Slawson, Slasher Federal 722-27 MLH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 34746, 607, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 13-25 8B, Banks, t7/19; cum 126K 10/19;