Monday, December 16, 2019

All Politics -- Four National Polls Just Released -- December 16, 2019

The four national polls:
  • Quinnipiac, 12/11- 12/15;
  • USA Today, 12/10 - 12/14;
  • NPR/PBS/Marist, 12/9 - 12/11;
  • IBD/TIPP, 12/5 - 12/14;
Results:
  • Placeholder for Hillary: range, 26% to 30%; no change from earlier polls
  • Sanders: 14% to 22%; the 22% was with NPR/PBS/Marist
  • Pocahontas: 13% to 17%
  • Buttigieg: 8% to 13%; again, the 13% was with NPR/PBS/Marist; overall -- unimpressive
  • the others are irrelevant, but for the record:
  • Bloomberg: 5% to 7%;
  • Klobuchar: 2% to 4%; whoo-hoo; a legend in her own mind;
  • Steyer: 0% (NPR) to 2% (IPD) but average is maybe 1%
The way it works:
  • one must garner 15% of all votes to take any delegates
  • as it stands, Biden -- the placeholder for Hillary -- takes all delegates or shares delegates with Sanders/Pocahontas
  • others have no chance for any delegates
Final comments:
  • Steyer and Bloomberg: vanity runs; neither getting much traction
  • Hillary: recalculating ... recalculating ... recalculating ... as long as Biden remains the under 35% front-runner she can hope for a brokered convention ... but because of the "way it works" there may not be a brokered convention....

Wow -- Drew Brees -- December 16, 2019

I cut the previous note a bit short. I'm watching the Indianapolis Colts / New Orleans Saints game.

Drew Brees set so many records, I can't keep up.

Highest completion percent in game: 96.7% -- 29 of 30.

NFL records for pass TDs.

Others.

Passes Peyton Manning for most pass TDs in NFL history, 541.

Post-game interview: he laughs about missing one of thirty. Says he should have had that 30th pass. LOL. He needs to stop by the White House and say "hi" to President Trump.

Fox - CNBC -- December 16, 2019

From a Montana reader:
I haven't been reading you as much lately due to things slowing down in the Bakken. We have some family mineral rights in the very south end of McKenzie County---- Whiting was going to drill during the big rush in the Bakken, then backed off at the last minute.

Someone that knows a lot more of the geology in the area than I do said that we are right in the "Bakken pinch out."

I joke to my siblings that if our grandparents had just kept going another 25 miles or so north when they got off the freight car at Beach, we would all be in the chips--hah.

What prompted me to write is your comment about CNBC. I am such a loyalist going back to the 90's with the great Mark Haines, and when David Faber and Joe Kernen were his young side-kicks. It was such a great program then, and I never missed a morning.

But over the years, as you allude, it has just got more p.c. and basically crummier---- Andrew Ross Sorkin seems to only know what has been printed by the New York Times--- I get tired of listening to it.

Joe Kernen is the only good reason to listen these days but he is increasingly a lonely voice---- imagine a capitalist on a business channel!!

I always enjoyed Maria Bartiromo when she was at CNBC and finally early this fall I started listening more frequently, and now I have become a devoted fan. Maria is very sharp, an unapologetic capitalist as well as one of the few national journalists who has seen through all the flim-flammery of the Russian collusion and now the Ukrainian b.s. Plus, pleasant to watch.

I just wanted to invite you to join me at Fox Business News and bid farewell to CNBC---- once great but not any more.
My reply:

Wow, what a great note.  My comments:
I agree: along with other readers who have written me, we all remember Mark Haines very, very fondly. I think most of us remember the day we heard he had passed away unexpectedly. A really, really sad day.

I watched Fox Business News quite a bit some years ago but I tired of Stuart Varney -- he was too treacly, if that's the right word, when it came to his feelings about free market US capitalism.

I also do not care for Cavuto so much any more. Early on I did, but I tired of him.

But upon your advice and invite, I have spent the last couple of days spending some hours with Fox Business News. I am quite impressed. Much livelier than CNBC. I agree: Andrew Ross Sorkin and The New York Times are joined at the hips. LOL.

I've also bookmarked Fox Business News on the internet and will follow that more closely that CNBC.

Thank you for the invitation and the review of Fox Business News

EIA Dashboards Have Been Posted -- Again, The Bakken Raises The Bar -- December 16, 2019

The December, 2019, dashboards have been posted.

Christmas Shopping -- AirPods Pro -- December 16, 2019

True wireless earbuds comparison, over at MacRumors:
  • Razer Hammerhead ($99)
  • Soundcore Liberty 2 ($149)
  • Jabra Elite 75t ($180)
  • Sony WF-1000XM3 ($229)
  • AirPods Pro ($250)
  • AirPods 2 ($159 - $199)
  • Powerbeats Pro ($200)
Conclusion:
There's nothing quite like the ‌AirPods Pro‌ if you have an Apple device, given the noise cancellation and the deep integration with the ‌iPhone‌, iPad, and Mac. Simple pairing, easy device switching, and Hey Siri support are features that third-party headphones can't match.

The Sony headphones also have noise cancellation and great sound if you're looking for an ‌AirPods Pro‌ alternative, but you'll miss out on several of the aforementioned options.

If you don't need noise cancellation, you won't go wrong with the ‌AirPods‌ 2, and for those who want an in-ear fit along with secure earhooks for working out, the ‌Powerbeats Pro‌ are a great choice.
AirPods Pro earbuds are going to fly off the shelves this Christmas. It will be interesting to see if Apple can keep up with demand.

And for investors? Margin for Apple on the AirPods Pro? 35%.

*****************************************
Gadgets of the Decade -- TIME
Of The Ten Gadgets

Time Magazine didn't get "person of the year" right but, wow, -- look at top ten gadgets of the decade --
TIME has published a list of what it believes are the 10 most important gadgets introduced in the last decade, and three Apple products have made the cut, including the iPad, Apple Watch, and AirPods.
I'm most impressed that iPad made the list. The iPad is awesome but everywhere you see iPhones. One of the very thin Apple laptops certainly could have been a fourth gadget on the list, but my hunch is that the panel had rules/limits on number of gadgets from one manufacturer.

Hard To Stop A Train; Active Rigs Dropping; Bakken Production Will Increase In January 2020 -- EIA -- December 16, 2019

NOG: to start paying a dividend -- April, 2020; 1.5 cents/share; about a 3% yield. NOG is tracked here. I find this something remarkable. Supposedly NOG is producing about 35,000 boepd; Oasis is producing about 70,000 boepd in the Bakken. I could be wrong on those numbers, but that seems to be what I see.

Shale production to continue to grow -- just not as fast -- estimated production for next month, January, 2020.
  • Permian: an increase of 48,000 bpd, from 4.694 million bpd to 4.742 million bpd, smallest increase since July 2019;
  • Bakken: an increase of 3,000 bpd, from 1.523 million bpd to 1.526 million bpd;
  • Eagle Ford: a decrease, falling from 1.366 million bpd to 1.357 million bpd
  • source: EIA
DUCs: in that same report:
  • Permian: down 20, from 7,705 (October, 2019) to 7,574 in November, 2019
  • Bakken: an increase of 2, from 758 to 760
  • Eagle Ford: a decrease of 24; from 1,421 to 1,397
Oil production, per new well, in December, 2019:
  • Permian: 798, up 2 bbls, from 796 bbls/day
  • Bakken: up an incredible 38 bbls per day, from 1,515 to 1,553 bbls/day in January, 2020
  • Eagle Ford: 1,449; up 17 bbls, from 1,432 bbls/day
***********************************
Back to the Daily Activity Report

Wells coming off confidential list: it appears wells that were supposed to be reported, were not. Maybe tomorrow. 

Active rigs:

$60.1612/16/201912/16/201812/16/201712/16/201612/16/2015
Active Rigs5267534064

One new permit, #37266:
  • Operator: Oasis
  • Field: Camp (Williams)
  • Comments: 
    • Oasis has a permit for a Borden Federal well in section 35-153-100; Camp oil field;
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 34596, 2,381, Hess, EN-Weyrauh B-154-93-3031H-4, Robinson Lake, t11/19; cum --;
  • 34595, 2,799, Hess, EN-Weyrauch B-154-93-3031H-3, Robinson Lake, t11/19; cum --; 
    • neighboring well:
      • 20651, EN-Weyrauch ... 2932H-2, off line;
  • 35898, 752, Slawson, Slasher Federal 4-27-22MLH, Big Bend, t11/19; cum -- ;
  • 35896, 1,181, Slawson, Slasher Federal 3-27-22MLH,  Big Bend, t11/19; cum --;
    • neighboring wells:
      • 18407, Ripper, off line;
      • 19404, Jackknife Federal, off line;

Tax Bill May Not Extend EV Credits Past The 200,000 Threshold -- Pending -- December 16, 2019

Tax bill: compromise to extend borrowing long enough to keep government open for next few months. Will likely give military a 3.1% pay raise which would be the largest in decades. Military retirement pay increased 2.8% for 2020; announced back in November.

Pfizer: raises dividend by nearly 6%; to 38 cents from 36 cents. payable March 6, 2020; record date January 31, 2020.

Futures Monday night down slightly. Not unexpected. My hunch: a lot of folks who were afraid of missing out are chomping at the bit to invest, if there's a nice pullback. Personally I have never had so much fun:
  • commission free trades; and, 
  • broker handles all tax data
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

"Dog bites man": minimum wage strangling Seattle restaurant workers. Only reason for posting the story was to note the outrageous minimum wage in Seattle for fast food restaurant employees; I assume lots of kiosk ordering; link here.

I'm Leaving It All Up To You, Linda Ronstadt

A Staggering XTO Well In The Hofflund; Almost One Million Bbls; Less Than One Million Lbs Of Sand; Six Stages; Still Flowing; No Pump; Only Well In This Unit -- December 16, 2019

Notes from the file report: link here.

The well:
  • 17147, 2,101, XTO, HBU Boucher 41X-21, a Three Forks well, Hofflund, t4/09; cum 914K 11/19;
The well was renamed on a sundry form dated May 20, 2019, to reflect the Hofflund unitized unit. 

Full production at this post.


The most recent significant sundry form was the "IP/test" sundry:
  • target: Three Forks
  • TVD: 9,764 feet; MD, 10,013 feet
  • six stages, using swell packers
  • 914,418 pounds of sand -- that is less than one million lbs of sand
  • IP: 2,101
Geologist's narrative:
  • spud December 10, 2008
  • TD: February 7, 2009
  • geologist's report includes information re:
  • Ratcliffe, not productive in this well;
  • Mission Canyon, not productive in this well;
  • Middle Bakken, should be productive;
  • Three Forks,
This is the ONLY well in this 1280-acre drilling unit.

 

XTO's Hofflund Unitized Field -- The HBU

Lots of work left in the Bakken.

See this note, XTO looking to unitize the Grinnell and the Hofflund.

See this post, also.  

By current standards, these are all poor wells (some may be mediocre) and need to be re-entered/re-fracked except for #17147.

Cumulative production in last column is in 100-thousands:
File Permit
Unitized Unit
Family Name
Legal Name
Test Date
IP
Cum Prod






10/19
36838
HBU
Muller
31X-12A

conf

36837
HBU
Muller
31X-12E2

conf

36836
HBU
Muller
31X-12B

conf

36835
HBU
Muller
31X-12F

conf

36834
HBU
Muller
31X-12C

conf

36833
HBU
Muller
31X-12G2

conf

36832
HBU
Muller
31X-12D

conf

36831
HBU
Muller 
31X-12H

conf

18510
HBU
Ward
11X-23
4/10
1462
534
18143
HBU
Marmon
41X-12
9/09
1065
187
18078
HBU
Bjarne
34X-13
2/10
834
278
17298
HBU
Crowder
41X-21
1/09
1151
269
17148
HBU
Deangelis
41X-21
10/08
1417
263
17147
HBU
Boucher 
41X-21
4/09
2101
911
16955
HBU
Charlson 
11-16H
7/08
861
258
17491
HBU
Sakakawea Federal 
13X-35R
2/09
702
414

The XTO Grinnell / Hofflund Units -- Update -- December 16, 2019

See this milliondollarway post. Was I all wrong? LOL.

See this post for the Grinnel Bakken Unitized field.

See Grand Forks Herald, September 28, 2018.
The North Dakota Industrial Commission has approved a drilling unit near Lake Sakakawea, but made some changes that regulators said would protect royalty owners.
The North Dakota Industrial Commission has approved a drilling unit near Lake Sakakawea, but made some changes that regulators said would protect royalty owners.
XTO Energy proposed to develop 26,000 acres in Williams and McKenzie counties as one large unit, a plan the company said would allow oil wells to be farther away from Lake Sakakawea.
The company said during a hearing in April that the proposal, known as the Hofflund-Bakken Unit, would allow more oil to be recovered but minimize the impact to sensitive terrain.
Petrogulf Corp., one of about 150 working interest owners within the proposed unit, objected to the plan. Petrogulf representatives said variability in geology within the unit would make developing the resource as one unit unfair.
Director of Mineral Resources Lynn Helms recommended the plan be approved, but divided into two units - the Hofflund and Grinnell units - because of significant differences in the geology.

XTO's Grinnell Unitized Field -- The GBU

Lots of work left in the Bakken.

See this note, XTO looking to unitize the Grinnell and the Hofflund. 

See this post, also. 

By current standards, these are all poor wells (some may be mediocre) and need to be re-entered/re-fracked. 

Cumulative production in last column is in 100-thousands:


File Permit
Unit
Family Name
Legal Name
IP
Test Date
Cum Prod







10/19

24510
GBU
Mendenhall 
12X-18H
1597
5/13
334

24385
GBU
Carter
14X-12D
1818
5/13
250

24384
GBU
Carter
14X-12H
1677
5/13
233

23767
GBU
Mendenhall 
12X-18C
1405
5/13
329

23441
GBU
Thompson
21-11SWH
1115
5/13
130

23440
GBU
Thompson
21-11SH
2030
2/13
197

23439
GBU
Thompson
21-11SEH
538
5/13
108

20250
GBU
Wayne
34X-34F
257
3/13
255

19134
GBU
Kelvie
11X-15
1171
10/10
240

19127
GBU
Carter
14X-12
1319
11/10
234

18678
GBU
Charlson Federal
34X-12B
1174
10/11
183

18525
GBU
Thompson
31-11SWH
2640
3/11
271

18487
GBU
Thompson
31-11NWH
2280
3/11
187

18480
GBU
Christopher 
21X-12
471
8/10
147

18441
GBU
White Federal 
34X-34
1067
11/10
190

18420
GBU
Barstad
32X-13
1067
2/10
147

18333
GBU
McPete Federal 
34X-34
792
11/10
204

18100
GBU
Mendenhall
12X-18
776
12/09
269

17276
GBU
Charlson
11-6H
416
6/09
89

16828
GBU
Kelly 
41X-3
392
1/08
104

16620
GBU
Marsden 
14X-12
322
8/07
143

16613
GBU
Nesson Grazing
44X-18
215
12/07
123

16612
GBU
Harding State
44X-18
656
6/08
140

16470
GBU
Harney 
41X-2
191
4/07
91