Sunday, December 15, 2019

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- December 15, 2019

Grinnell oil field has been updated: tracked here.

Actions have consequences: Remember those folks protesting crude oil pipelines on the west coast of Canada? Yeah, those folks.
They're driving into the US to buy cheap gasoline. LOL.

Link here. Data points:
  • prices at the pump in British Columbia have hit an all-time high
  • a fifth of BC drivers are now driving into Washington State for "cheap" gasoline
  • at some border crossings, two of five drivers have said they have visited the US solely to buy gasoline
  • British Columbia Utilities Commission did the study; unable to explain the difference in price between US gasoline and BC gasoline -- LOL -- they said with a straight face 
Sam Zell is buying distressed oil assets. Source.

WTI: tonight, 8:10 p.m. CT, Decebmer 15, 2019 -- $59.85.

The wrecking crew:

From the DVD, the Wrecking Crew

Politics:
The NY Times admits: when a GOP president resigns under threat of impeachment (Nixon), the system works. But when impeachment efforts against a GOP president fails -- and fails spectacularly -- the system does not work. By the way, it's interesting which articles The NY Times does not keep behind its pay wall. In other news, Senator Schumer is delusional if he things Mitch McConnell is going to let him (Schumer) run the trial. LOL.
Streaming television. Link here: https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/hulu-live-tv-prices-rise.
  • Hulu: will raise subscription costs from $44.99 to $54.99; ad-free versions, $60.99; most expensive live TV streaming service option currently on the market; second increase this year!
  • YouTube: $49.99/month
  • Sling TV: $25/month;
  • ATT: $50/month
  • Disney: $6.99/month or $69.99/year
  • Netflix: $12.99/month; premium, $15.99/month
  • Apple TV+: $5/month; $50, annual;
  • other streaming platforms falling by the wayside
  • Sony recently announced that it is ending their PlayStation Vue live TV service as of January 30, 2020;
Embarrassed much? EV manufacturers still not reporting sales.
We'll be reporting 2019 Q4 EV Sales beginning Thursday, January 2 and/or Friday, January 3, and continuing throughout the following week. However, it's important to note that there will still be some missing data since many automakers refuse to report EV sales. Nonetheless, stay tuned in the coming days as we'll be beginning to add automaker reported numbers to the chart for the last few months.
Note that BMW has decided for some time to no longer give model breakdowns or a final EV number, but rather a percentage decrease YoY, which has been huge in the last few months. But now, the automaker isn't even sharing its EV sales numbers/percentage at all. Still, i3 and i8 numbers will be official as reported by BMW.
Mercedes: after disappointing sales by other European luxury brands, Mercedes will delay launching US EVs until 2021; previously planned to launch in 2020; sources.

A Trifecta? A Turkey? A Hat-Trick? -- December 15, 2019

Berkshire Hathaway: Perhaps the best: one short of a golden sombrero. LOL.

I really don't care one way or the other, but only because his $130 billion in cash has everyone talking, I thought I would chime in. It's tough being at the top -- all of us peons taking pot shots at Warren, LOL.

Three strikes:
  • first, he missed out on a $5 billion acquisition of Tech Data; wouldn't get in a bidding war.
  • second, did he miss the biggest whale of them all, the $26 billion Ameritrade deal?
  • and now, third, one of his stars has abruptly (?) left Berkshire Hathaway. From Yahoo!Finance:
Buffett’s real estate brokerage, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices, lost one of its biggest stars to rival Keller Williams Realty -- in its own backyard.
The new office for the departing CEO of Omaha’s Real Estate Group, Jeff Cohn, and his 35-person team is just a 15-minute drive from Buffett’s five-bedroom home in Omaha, Nebraska.
Sunday night futures mean squat, as they say, but it's always nice to see green. Dow is up about 30 points in tonight's futures (6:03 p.m. CT, December 15, 2019).

Powerline: This Week In Pictures -- December 15, 2019

Link here for this week in pictures.

But, first things first, Dallas Cowboys at 3:00 p.m. CST. Today. Fox.

Until today, I never knew this was "a thing."

The real reason Rex Tillerson resigned. LOL. From BusinessInsider -- are you kidding?

TDS.


By the way, an obvious and appropriate reason for different size shakers.

The rest of the week in pictures, Powerline.

Trucking: 2019 Update -- December 15, 2019

Trucking.

Two stories. Same data.

First, the one from Fox: trucking companies failing at nearly the rate of 2018 -- link: https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/trucking-companies-failing-at-nearly-triple-the-rate-of-2018. Poor on overall statistics and background.

Second, the one from The WSJ: trucking market will absorb Celadon shutdown.Whether it's accurate or not, the WSJ article seems to have more supporting data, better analysis.

Texas Chop House -- Very Little About The Bakken Except In Passing -- Grilling -- December 15, 2019

First things first: the Weber Vortex.

Texas steak: To the best of my knowledge I have never visited a "high-end" steak house. Last night, compliments of a reader, thank you very, very much -- I was treated to a 5-star evening at the Mercury Chop House in Arlington, TX, ninth floor overlooking the city and overlooking Dallas. A tremendous evening. I had the ribeye, something I don't recall having had in the past several decades. One needs to remember that I spent most of my life overseas where steak was seldom on the menu.

I had so much fun talking about the Bakken with my host (from 7:00 p.m. to 10:30 p.m.) that I had little time to fully appreciate the meal. With steak this good, I did not want to rush through it. I don't eat much at any one sitting to begin with, so, I had most of my ribeye to take home and enjoy while watching the Redskins - Eagles and sipping Japanese scotch. (My wife could not believe how good it was, and, said, yes, I could take here to the Mercury for our wedding anniversary. LOL.)


Later, Sophia comes over.

Some days it just seems life is too short.

The downside: I am now "hooked" on the Texas chop house. LOL.

My host last night: in another life he was a bartender extraordinaire. Now, a Bakken acolyte. We talked about family, life, and lots of Bakken. We didn't talk enough about our shared alma mater; next time, perhaps. The Bakken did not dominate the conversation. Scandinavian background; family; visits to Williston; and grilling. That's the reason for the "first things first, Weber Vortex" note above. We talked grilling about as much as anything else (except shale oil) but we didn't mention the Vortex. So, enough of that. A great evening.

By the way, speaking of bartending, my host corroborated all I understood about the martini, giving me two tips of which I was not aware. One of the two tips: the onion. The other tip: about the preparation of the martini with regard to vermouth. Very similar to what Churchill might have said. 

Idle Rambling On A Sunday Morning -- Thoughts On The Bakken -- December 15, 2019

First, this article from The WSJ: shale slowdown takes economic toll. I have not read the article yet. I will read it in a few minutes. These will be the story lines I will be looking for:
  • is the article "shale-in-general" or is it focused on the Permian
  • was all shale created equal, or is the Bakken different than the Permian and are the Permian/Bakken different from the other US shale plays
  • will the writer corroborate my thesis that the only US shale plays that matter right now are the Bakken, the Permian, and the Eagle Ford, and the latter is slip-slip-slipping away
  • does the writer understand the inherent nature of boom-and-bust in the oil patch
  • several years ago, it was said that the Bakken would be entering the "manufacturing stage" -- probably about 2016 or thereabouts
  • So, let's take a look at the article:
  • the byline: Midland, TX
  • the lede begins with mentioning the Permian by name
  • operators now focusing on profits over expansion
  • "the boom time is done at this point, unless oil prices go up significantly" -- senior economist at Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
  • the graphic, revenue change year-over-year, is hard to read
  • shows very well the effect the Saudi surge had on US shale from 2014 - 2017
  • shows very well the boom-bust cycle in the oil patch
  • CAPEX forecast to fall 6% in 2019
  • CAPEX forecast to fall another 14% in 2020, adjusted for inflation
  • jobs are being trimmed; leading to a 5% decline in seasonally adjusted oil-field service employment in the 12 months ended in October, 2019
  • Texas: energy-related employment dropped 2.1%, annualized, through September
  • North Dakota: energy-related employment dropped9 %, annualized, through October, 2019
  • Texas/New Mexico: regional unemployment at 2.4% in October, up from 1.9% in April, 2019
  • Permian workers:
  • hours cut
  • hotel occupancy in Midland has fallen 14% the past ten months compared to the year earlier
  • average cost of a room in Midland was about 55% higher last year (2018) than in 2017
  • silver lining: less employee turnover
  • companies have time to check references, etc
And then this near the end:
The slowdown is unusual because it hasn’t been driven by a sharp decline in crude prices, which have hovered around $57 a barrel this year. Rather, U.S. oil producers are paring growth and spending largely because many have struggled mightily to generate returns for shareholders and are facing tightening access to capital. Including reinvested dividends, a broad index of U.S. oil-and-gas companies’ share prices has fallen about 47% in the past three years as the S&P 500 index soared roughly 49%, according to FactSet.
“Investors are playing a large role here, and that’s the biggest driver of this cycle,” said Chris Wright, chief executive of Denver-based Liberty Oilfield Services Inc., which specializes in hydraulic fracturing. Companies such as Liberty that provide services or parts to shale producers have been among the hardest-hit by the pullback.
Takeaway / comments:
  • simply a snapshot in time
  • almost all of this pertains to the Permian; the Bakken went through the same (boom to manufacturing stage);  
  • looks more like moving into the "manufacturing stage" than bust following a boom;
  • 2020 will be a make or break year for many producers
  • 2021 and farther out: will depend more on the new administration in Washington, DC,  than almost anything else
  • the wild card is what Prince Salman does to prop up his hobby horse

The Enerplus Chili Pepper Pad In McGregory Buttes

The initial ten-well pad:
  • 34773, 573, Hidalgo 148-94-11C-2H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t6/19; cum 192K 8/20;
  • 34774, 1,738, Ancho 148-94-11C-2H, McGregory Buttes, t6/19; cum 305K 8/20;
  • 34775, 560, Santaka 148-94-11C-2H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t6/19; cum 134K 8/20;
  • 34776, 357, Thai 148-94-11C-2H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t6/19; cum 115K 8/20;
  • 34777, 789, Tabiche 148-94-11C-2H, McGregory Buttes, t6/19; cum 214K 8/20;
  • 34778, 674, Serrano 148-94-11D-2H, McGregory Buttes, t6/19; cum 3259K 8/20;
  • 34779, PNC, Hatch .... 2H,
  • 34780, PNC, Paprika .... TF,
  • 34781, PNC, Chimayo .... 2H,
  • 34782, PNC, Diablo .............TF,
Initial production.

#34778:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20192378820466
9-20192252520910
8-20193386230170
7-2019414011944
6-2019176430


#34777:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20192205418974
9-20192557823744
8-20191927017169
7-2019214311006
6-201997900


#34776:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-201950924381
9-2019995924
8-201951124555
7-201916321766
6-2019980


#34775:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20192065517771
9-20192012018677
8-20191303211611
7-2019244261147
6-2019105230


#34774:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20192022817403
9-20193280630453
8-20193598332059
7-2019430832023
6-201960200


#34773:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-201987977568
9-20191795116664
8-20191757115655
7-201917130804
6-201915590

Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- Decebmer 15, 2019

Comments:
  • Enerplus Greek God wells are starting to come off the confidential list. These wells are tracker here.
**********************************
The Wells
 
36524, conf, Slawson, Challenger Federal 9-29-32H, Big Bend, no production data,

36173, conf, XTO, Lavern 42X-14H, Capa, no production data,

35902, conf, Slawson, Tempest Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, no production data, 

36172, conf, XTO, Lavern 42X-14CXD,  Capa, no production data,

34838, conf, Enerplus, Hera 149-93-33D-28H, Mandaree,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20193089225390
9-20193996835889
8-20192177014056
7-2019326741116
6-201990790

30178, conf, Slawson, Diamondback 1 SLH, Big Bend, no production data,

36171, conf, XTO, Lavern 42X-14BXC, Capa, no production data,

35901, conf, Slawson, Slasher Federal 722-27 MLH, Big Bend, no production data,

34746, conf, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 13-25 8B,  Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20193246879993
9-20192974858529
8-20193147678706
7-20192919867120
6-201935652051

36170, conf, XTO, Lavern 42X-14AXB, Capa, no production data,

34839, conf, Enerplus, Apollo 149-93-33D-28H-TF, Mandaree,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-201936673014
9-201973506600
8-201946733017
7-201916745572
6-201993370

33886, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-8A-31-3H, Charlson, no production data,

34745, conf, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 13-25 7T, Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20192564665219
9-20191859450696
8-20192693667983
7-20192915863299
6-201953464013

30177, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, no production data,

36169, conf, XTO, Lavern 42X-EXF,  Capa, no production data,

35900, conf, Slawson, Slasher Federal 2-222-27H, Big Bend, no production data,

36168, conf, XTO, Lavern 42X-14AXD, Capa, no production data,

35742, conf, Whiting, Ogden 41-9HU, Sanish,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20193364433307
9-20192618817759
8-2019221660
7-2019396960
6-201942860

35899, conf, Slawson, Typhoon 149-93-07D-12H-TF,  Big Bend, no production data,

35337, conf, Hess, EN-Dobrovolny A-LE-155-94-1319H-1, Alger, no production data,

34778, conf, Enerplus, Serrano 148-94-11D-2H-TF, McGregory Buttes,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20192378820466
9-20192252520910
8-20193386230170
7-2019414011944
6-2019176430

34777, conf, Enerplus, Tabiche 148-94-11C-2H, McGregory Buttes,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20192205418974
9-20192557823744
8-20191927017169
7-2019214311006
6-201997900

34775, conf, Enerplus, Santaka 148-94-11C-2H, McGregory Buttes,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20192065517771
9-20192012018677
8-20191303211611
7-2019244261147
6-2019105230

34098, conf, Resource Energy Can-Am, Trooper 0409-1TFH, Blooming Prairie,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20199534455
9-20191130374

35336, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland A-LE-155-94-1201H-1, Alger, no production data,

35335, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland A-155-94-1201H-4, Manitou, no production data,

34096, conf,Resource Energy Can-Am, Trooper 0409-3TFH, Blooming Prairie,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-201911048382
9-20192265640

35334, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland A-155-94-1201H-5, Manitou, no production data,

35118, conf, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 11-30 2BX, Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20193042374638
9-201940929882
8-2019899619786
7-20191626936835

34843, conf, Enerplus, Boreas 149-93-33C-28H, Mandaree,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20192378019545
9-201977977001
8-20192112213637
7-201922595771
6-201991040

34842, conf, Enerplus, Metis 149-93-33C-28H-TF, Mandaree,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20191877715433
9-20191861216713
8-201993336026
7-201914034479
6-2019105860

34841, conf, Enerplus, Athena 149-93-33C-28H-TF, Mandaree,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20191541312668
9-201943713925
8-201968144399
7-201917149585
6-2019133440

34840, conf, Enerplus, Zeus 149-93-33D-28H, Mandaree,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20192005216481
9-20192225419983
8-20192410415563
7-2019402501374
6-2019200260

Wells Coming Of The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 15, 2019

Monday, December 23, 2019: 70 for the month; 275 for the quarter:
36524, conf, Slawson, Challenger Federal 9-29-32H, 
36173, conf, XTO, Lavern 42X-14H,
35902, conf, Slawson, Tempest Federal 1 SLH, 

Sunday, December 22, 2019: 67 for the month; 272 for the quarter:
36172, conf, XTO, Lavern 42X-14CXD, 
34838, conf, Enerplus, Hera 149-93-33D-28H,
30178, conf, Slawson, Diamondback 1 SLH, 

Saturday, December 21, 2019: 64 for the month; 269 for the quarter:
36171, conf, XTO, Lavern 42X-14BXC, 
35901, conf, Slawson, Slasher Federal 722-27 MLH, 
34746, conf, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 13-25 8B, 

Friday, December 20, 2019: 61 for the month; 266 for the quarter:
36170, conf, XTO, Lavern 42X-14AXB, 
34839, conf, Enerplus, Apollo 149-93-33D-28H-TF,
33886, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-8A-31-3H,
34745, conf, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 13-25 7T
30177, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5 SLTFH

Thursday, December 19, 2019: 56 for the month; 261 for the quarter:
36169, conf, XTO, Lavern 42X-EXF, 
35900, conf, Slawson, Slasher Federal 2-222-27H, 

Wednesday, December 18, 2019: 54 for the month; 259 for the quarter:
36168, conf, XTO, Lavern 42X-14AXD, 
35742, conf, Whiting, Ogden 41-9HU, 

Tuesday, December 17, 2019: 52 for the month; 257 for the quarter:
35899, conf, Slawson, Typhoon 149-93-07D-12H-TF
35337, conf, Hess, EN-Dobrovolny A-LE-155-94-1319H-1, 
34778, conf, Enerplus, Serrano 148-94-11D-2H-TF
34777, conf, Enerplus, Tabiche 148-94-11C-2H, 
34775, conf, Enerplus, Santaka 148-94-11C-2H, 
34098, conf, Resource Energy Can-Am, Trooper 0409-1TFH,

Monday, December 16, 2019: 46 for the month; 251 for the quarter:
35336, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland A-LE-155-94-1201H-1, 


Sunday, December 15, 2019: 45 for the month; 250 for the quarter:
35335, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland A-155-94-1201H-4, 
34096, conf,Resource Energy Can-Am, Trooper 0409-3TFH

Saturday, December 14, 2019: 43 for the month; 248 for the quarter:
35334, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland A-155-94-1201H-5, 
35118, conf, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 11-30 2BX, 
34843, conf, Enerplus, Boreas 149-93-33C-28H,
34842, conf, Enerplus, Metis 149-93-33C-28H-TF
34841, conf, Enerplus, Athena 149-93-33C-28H-TF
34840, conf, Enerplus, Zeus 149-93-33D-28H,

Color Me Embarrassed -- Two "Big" Stories I Missed This Past Week -- December 15, 2019

First things first: the Weber Vortex.

First story I somehow missed this past week: Harold Hamm steps down as CLR CEO; Washington Post. I somehow missed it. Geoff Simon probably mentioned it but I had not read his note for the week.
Harold Hamm is stepping down as chief executive of Continental Resources Inc. to serve as executive chairman, company officials said.
Beginning Jan. 1, Continental board member William Berry will take over as CEO for the Oklahoma City-headquartered company. Jack Stark, Continental Resources’ president, will also serve as its chief operating officer.
Hamm, the highest-paid CEO in Oklahoma in 2018, will remain active as chairman, founder and majority shareholder with about 77% of the company’s stock.
I’m not going anywhere,” said Hamm, who pioneered the use of fracking that was used to tap a massive domestic oil play in the Bakken formation in North Dakota. “I’m an oil finder and geologist at heart.
Berry has more than four decades of oil and gas experience. As an executive at ConocoPhillips, Berry oversaw its global operations, managing more than 10,000 employees and more than $12 billion in capital outlays.
Second story that I don't recall posting. Maybe I did but don't recall. Company statement:
Enbridge has paid dividends for over 64 years to its shareholders. In December 2018, we announced a 10% increase to our dividend per share, increasing the quarterly dividend to $0.738. This translates into $2.952 dividend per share on an annualized basis for 2019. Payable on March 1, 2019, to shareholders of record on February 14, 2020.
New story: popularity of bourbon booming -- WSJ. I'll come back to this later, perhaps.

New story: how Enbridge plans to grow in era of pipeline opposition -- Financial Times. Three low-risk projects:
  • joint venture with EPD to build a deep-water port near Houston; the Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT)
  • joint venture with EPD to expand the Seaway Pipeline by 200,000 bbls per day
  • will build a new 15-million-bbls crude oil storage terminal near SPOT