Thursday, November 28, 2019

Whiting Koala Well WIth Jump In Production -- November 28, 2019

On a 6-well pad next to an older 3-well pad; no recent activity noted. 

The well:
  • 32549, 4,214, Whiting, Koala 31-25-2H, Poe, t8/17; cum 213K 9/19;
Look at recent production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201928100041002770632724426783461
BAKKEN8-201927125713131356104210402
BAKKEN7-2019311910184426421352126884
BAKKEN6-2019302200221028451259119465
BAKKEN5-2019312357237828381260120654
BAKKEN4-2019302047200528361103936155
BAKKEN3-20193122532344297718121539211
BAKKEN2-20192824182424260716611450156

The Amazing Bakken -- November 28, 2019

XTO's Bang Federal #20520 has been updated. Link here.

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Stone, Bronze, Iron 

From The Vikings: A History, Robert Ferguson, c. 2009, pages 1 - 2:
When in 1816, the Danish government went ahead with its plans for a national museum, responsibility for ordering the large collection of finds stored in the loft of Copenhagen's Trinitatis Church was given to Christian Jürgensen Thomsen .... Thomsen decided to try to bring some order to this vauge and diffuse idea of a public past ...

He began by grouping the articles according to composition and function. They included tools and weapons made of stone; weapons and other items ... made of bronze; articles made of iron....

With the exhibits sorted into these three basic groupings of stone, bronze, and iron, an exhibition opened to the public in the Trinitatis Church loft in 1819.

This was the first time the tripartite division of the past into Stone, Bronze, and Iron Ages was used.
In all my years of reading I never once thought to ask the question, how did this tripartite division begin? Very, very interesting.

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The Sports Page

Watch Jerry's head explode later tonight. LOL.

Well into the fourth quarter and the Dallas Cowboys trail the Buffalo Bills by 19 points.

With less than six minutes to play, the CBS play-by-play folks are reminding viewers that the Buffalo Bills are trouncing "America's team" on national television, prime-time, Thanksgiving afternoon. Jerry Jones is probably aware of that. If last Sunday, four days ago, was embarrassing, not sure what word to use to describe this debacle.

Home game: it will be interesting to see how quickly the stadium empties so folks can get back home for Thanksgiving dessert.

Later: I felt somewhat guilty for being so hard on the Cowboys ... then I saw this:

All Politics -- Nothing About The Bakken -- Thanksgiving 2019

Wow, what a great Thanksgiving gift! Another poll.

This is a newly released New Hampshire democrat presidential primary poll: the Emerson poll.

This one, 11/11 - 11/26.

Again, these polls mean nothing, but they sure are fun to watch.

Again, the only purpose of the early caucuses/primaries is for bragging rights, momentum, and donor money. This has nothing to do with delegates. The early primaries are onesie-twosie; very small states; very, very few delegates.

Iowa and New Hampshire: anything less than a strong win = a loss. Period. Dot.

If it ends up 25.1% Buttigieg, and 24.9% Sanders, the headline: "Buttigieg wins New Hampshire."

So, this newest poll, out of New Hampshire.

The numbers add up to 98% which means "undecided" was not on the list or the Emerson folks are not reporting "undecided." But it's hard to believe that all but 2% of New Hampshire folks are "decided."

Buttigieg and Sanders are probably statistically tied at 25%.

Pocahontas and Biden tied at 14%.

Neither Biden nor Pocahontas will improve from here. Both are trending down.

February 11, 2020. Seventy-five days from now.

Pocahontas has had her Beto moment, to paraphrase:
  • "born to be in it"
  • "hell, yes, I will take away your private health insurance"
Now, to steal a book title from Leonard Woolf (husband of Virginia), the future of Pocahontas: "Downhill all the way ..."

Buttigieg: will start to peel away votes from the eight dwarfs each polling less than 5.1%, and will likely peel away votes from Biden. Sanders will peel away votes from Pocahontas.

By the way, Bloomberg lost nothing by not participating in Iowa or New Hampshire. Another NYC billionaire would not have played well in Iowa; and everyone in New Hampshire knows the former NYC mayor very, very well. 

Bloomberg will not be on the ballot in New Hampshire. Steyer polled at 3%.

The Market ... On A Day The Market Is Closed -- Happy Thanksgiving -- November 28, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Telecoms: time to buy.

ATT:
First, a very savvy player sees upside in AT&T. Second, the company realized Elliott wasn’t going away and had decided to work with them. And third, the trend for company earnings was up.
All three were affirmed with AT&T’s third quarter numbers and guidance. Under the plan, the company will separate the roles of chairman and CEO, cut debt to just 2 times cash flow, sell up to $10 billion in assets, swear off acquisitions, buy back 3 percent of its shares annually and continue low single digit dividend increases.
With shares trading at just 10.6 times expected 2019 full-year results and 8.3 times the mid-point of 2022 guidance, we’re comfortable raising our buy target to $40.
And get this: it still pays 5.42%.
Comcast (CMCSA)
For Comcast, the greatest excitement has been overseas, where recently acquired Sky (8 percent of profit) boosted viewership 10 percent and lifted cash flow 38.3 percent from a year ago. That’s a very good sign for growing the unit’s 24 million customer relationships in Europe, driven by sports content.
In the US, Telemundo is still the number one Spanish language network, while NBC was tops for the 18 to 49 age group in prime time for the sixth consecutive year. That’s a solid testament to Comcast’s ability to run the content side of the business.
Success at the network is in no small part thanks to the powerful marriage of strong content with a superior network this decade. And those advantages will be showcased further over the next 12 months, as the company expands its Flex broadband offering and ramps up the Peacock streaming service.
With the stock trading at just 13.7 times expected 2019 full-year results, we’re now comfortable raising our highest recommended entry point for the king of cable to $45.
Pays only 1.89%.
Verizon: go to the link.

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Happy Thanksgiving


Mr Trump? He's spending Thanksgiving in Afghanistan. Wow. 

North American Economy; US Improves; Mexico Teeters On Recession; Canada? Closed For Business -- November 28, 2019

US:
An initial snapshot of year-end trends emerged Wednesday when the Commerce Department, in separate reports, said household spending picked up in October and orders for long-lasting factory goods rose—both positive signs for growth. The department also said the U.S. economy expanded at a slightly better pace than initially estimated in the third quarter, despite a continuing slump in business investment.
[The file photograph accompanying this story is particularly noteworthy -- consumer spending rose 0.3% despite the fact that gasolien prices are incredibly low]
Personal-consumption expenditures, or household spending, increased at a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in October from September, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. But spending for long-lasting goods, particularly new motor vehicles, fell at a seasonally adjusted 0.7% rate. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected consumer spending to rise 0.3% and personal income to increase 0.3%.
Mexico: Bank of Mexico cuts economic growth forecasts -- WSJ --
The Bank of Mexico lowered its economic growth estimates for 2019 and 2020, saying weakness had been more pronounced and prolonged than it previously expected.
In its quarterly inflation report Wednesday, the central bank estimated that gross domestic product —a measure of output in goods and services—would end this year between a contraction of 0.2% and an expansion of 0.2%. Previously it had expected growth of 0.2% to 0.7%.
For 2020, the bank lowered its estimate to 0.8%-1.8% from 1.5%-2.5%, and introduced a forecast for 2021 of 1.3% to 2.3%.
Canada: closed for business. From The Financial Post:
Canada’s economy is shifting into a lower gear as some of the country’s growth drivers begin to lose steam.
Statistics Canada will release third-quarter gross domestic product numbers Friday that will probably show a sharp drop in growth. The country’s expansion slowed to a 1.3 per cent annualized pace in the three months through September, down from an unsustainable clip of 3.7 per cent in the prior period.
It’s a return to sluggish growth that may become the new normal for a Canadian economy seeing many of its engines of growth sputter, from investment and exports to weakening consumption as the nation’s households cope with high debt levels.

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Venezuela On Our Doorstep

For anyone paying attention, this has to be very, very scary. There was a reason President Trump took "the wall" so seriously.

Ann Coulter fails to see the big story, criticizing Trump for so few deportations and failing to complete the wall.

But I digress. This has all the markings of Venezuela. Link here.
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador came to power a year ago after a landslide victory he said would launch a “truly democratic” period in Mexico’s history.

But analysts have said the government of the charismatic leftist nationalist is steadily weakening checks on his power, replacing opponents on the Supreme Court and in independent agencies with loyalists.
Now the president’s allies in Congress are seeking to remove the head of Mexico’s election watchdog three years before his term ends, a move that has renewed concern about what some opposition figures see as the authoritarian instincts of the López Obrador administration.
The bill proposed by lawmakers of Mr. López Obrador’s ruling party, Morena, which has a majority in both houses of Congress, has been criticized by electoral officials as an effort to take political control of the agency before midterm elections in 2021 and a planned presidential recall referendum Mr. López Obrador has said will be held in March 2022.
Can anyone say, "president for life"?

Random Update Of The Meredith, Rebecca, Rosa Benz Wells In Chimney Butte -- November 28, 2019

It looks like this well might finally be back on line and doing well, from earlier posts:
  • February 24, 2019: #26015, 2,438, MRO, Rebecca 31-26, Killdeer, t4/14; cum 253K 10/19; off line as of 11/18; remains off line 4/19; coming back on line, 5/19; back off line 6/19; remains off line, 8/19; seven days of production, 9/19; lots of activity in the area; see the March 14, 2019, entry below, regarding the Meredith well;
  • March 14, 2019: #34758 (PNC), #36167; link here; is Meredith (#36167) a replacement well for a failed Tercek well (#34758)? #36167, 2,662, 6/19; it looks like it is now producing, as of 7/19; see this post; many, many wells need to be re-checked once they come back on line; #36167 is a huge well; 47K in 23 days extrapolates to 61,603 bbls/30-day month;
Next one to watch:
  • #18993, 884, MRO, Rosa Benz 44-23H, t4/11; cum 211K 10/18 (no typo); off line, 10/19; but disgorged 12,914 bbls of water in 10/19; remains off line 10/19;
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Full production, #36167:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-201931487284853634338591464525210578
BAKKEN9-201928392383919337759414021674921966
BAKKEN8-20192347229468504920943623040433
BAKKEN7-20193206185367000

Recent production, #26015:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-201931310530775182235001694
BAKKEN9-201974514467424530320
BAKKEN8-20190070000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-201900100000
BAKKEN5-201942471503
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-201800370000
BAKKEN11-201871573541091821438
BAKKEN10-2018312115212414052392199572