Sunday, November 10, 2019

This Is Simply Another Example Of All The Work That Is Left To Be Done In The Bakken -- November 10, 2019

Another shout-out to the roughnecks. 

This is an incredible story. So many story lines. Note the "new" production data, and then think about full-cycle costs; half-cycle costs; costs during a downturn in the oil sector; etc., etc. 

All of a sudden that CLR Cedar Coulee case in the September, 2019, hearing dockets starts to make sense.

First, look at this post from earlier today: OMG! CLR Did It Again! The CLR Carus Wells -- Cedar Coulee -- Section 28-147-96.

The phenomenal Carus wells are sited in section 28-147-96 and run north into section 21-147-96.

From the September, 2019, hearing dockets, this case (not a permit):
28056, CLR, Cedar Coulee-Bakken, on an existing 2560-acre unit, sections 20/29/32-147-96; and, section 5-146-96; 22 wells; Dunn County
This 2560-acre unit is a four-section stand-up directly west of the Carus wells. There are already six wells in those four sections, but they are 1280-acre spaced wells.

So, let's look at #16648 again; there was something that caught my eye. The NDIC map suggests this old well has a second lateral which is not often seen in an old well in the Bakken (or any Bakken well for that matter unless there was a problem with the first lateral).

The well:
  • 16648, 508, CLR, Carus 13-28H, Cedar Coulee, t8/07; cum 411K 9/19;
From the file report:
  • permit: a Burlington Resources well with a different name: Carus 24-28H
  • back in 2007, it was spud, drilled to depth; IP of 508; Oakdale field; open hole frack with 1 million lbs sand;
  • in January, 2008, the well was transferred to CLR (still Carus 24-28H)
  • sundry forms continue to show this as file #16648, Carus 24-28H
  • stripper well determination, June 17, 2016, by CLR
  • name change to Carus 13-28H, October 16, 2018
  • November 10, 2018: CLR sundry form that is plans to re-enter this well
  • the Carus 13-28H is a re-entry horizontal
  • it was originally spud June 10, 2007
  • the re-entry was completed November 28, 2018
  • so this is lateral #2 which I believe runs straight north and is west of lateral 1, the original horizontal
  • side-tracking (the second lateral) began on November 24, 2018; total depth was reached November 28, 2018
  • frack data is not yet posted at the NDIC site
  • FracFocus says the well was fracked, 2/20/19 - 3/6/19; a huge frack: 11.6 million gallons of water; 88.9% water by mass; 10.6% sand by mass;
Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2019292614326021324233229931805165
BAKKEN8-2019314058640539547404857947682478
BAKKEN7-20193042528423386015053111457916925
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-201942081946350246902428
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20187121430202027150
BAKKEN10-20183163757910710446619
BAKKEN9-20183062075583104025610

Re-entry or new well: this brings us back to a discussion back in the early days of the Bakken boom. Mark Papa, CEO of EOG at the time, said it would be easier to drill a brand-new neighboring well than to re-enter/frack an older/existing well. The jury is still out on that, of course, but I have seen no (?) examples of an operator drilling a new well right next to an existing well, and plugging the older, existing well. I have seen many re-entry wells. I have also seen many re-fracked wells. And finally, I have seen so many older wells with a jump in production despite no new frack simply due to new neighboring wells being fracked that I no longer bother to track them, except by exception. I now lump all of these together as "advantaged oil" which is not quite the correct definition as used by BP and others, but I like it for the Bakken. Makes my life easier.

*********************
This was the original production back in 2007 after the first frack:
BAKKEN3-200831702270821671111110
BAKKEN2-20082975047419227420042000
BAKKEN1-20083192069299378763376330
BAKKEN12-20073184488431305705970590
BAKKEN11-20073087738617249810781070
BAKKEN10-200731117721182956410697106970
BAKKEN9-20073014220141808586236230
BAKKEN8-20073110833107292252000

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- November 10, 2019

There were reports that the Keystone (not the XL) pipeline was flowing again, but the sources were not sources with which I was familiar. But today, Reuters is reporting that the Keystone (not the XL) pipeline is now flowing again, albeit at reduced pressures.

The last I heard was that TC Energy had not yet identified the source of the leak and this most recent article does not shed any light on that.

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- November 10, 2019

Beautiful, beautiful day in DFW, Texas, area today. Cold front to hit tomorrow. Standing-room only in Starbucks. Seconds after writing that, another long line of folks showed up. The number of toddlers accompanying parents is fascinating ... the new "Dairy Queen" for Texans. LOL.

Tusk, Fleetwood Mac

That should be the UCLA fight song. Fleetwood Mac is so "UCLA." Compared to the USC Fight Song, the UCLA fight song is so lame. LOL. Wow, I'm going to get a lot of flack on that one. My wife is a graduate of UCLA? Me? USC.

A lot of history in this song, by the man who wrote it:

Walking in Memphis, Marc Cohn

********************************
Apple

Updates

Later, 6:26 p.m. CT: a couple of hours after posting the note below, this from the Financial Times:
Apple has piled on more than $400bn of market capitalisation so far this year, even as its profit margins fade and its new iPhone failed to wow analysts. The increase in its equity value since January comes to $407bn: almost as much as the entire market capitalisation of JPMorgan Chase, America's biggest bank by assets. The higher price nudges Apple ahead of Microsoft — which itself is up 44 per cent — to regain the title of the world's most valuable listed company, worth $1.16tn.
Original Post
 
The market. If AAPL ever starts trading like a "consumer staple," watch out --
  • Procter and Gamble, PG, P/E: 75.76 (no typo)
  • Apple, Inc, AAPL, P/E: 21.88 (no typo)
  • currently: 
    • Apple, Inc: earnings: 11.89
    • AAPL: price: $260
    • P&G multiple pricing for AAPL, 75.76 x 11.89: $900.79.
  • Note: it was not me who first noticed this; brought to my attention by a "Fast Money" trader
  • even KO (Coca-Cola) trades at a 30-multiple
  • and it should be noted that the Jul-Aug-Sept quarter for Apple, Inc., is historically much worse than its "holiday" quarter; link here to fact check;
    • "holiday" quarter one year ago was 44% better than the preceding quarter
    • "holiday" quarter two years ago was 88% better than that quarter's preceding quarter
    • so, let's say, this "holiday" quarter is 60% better than the most recent quarter, then we get an earnings of $4.85 for the Oct-Nov-Dec-2019 quarter (consensus is $4.53)
    • for the 12 months, through end of 2019, earnings of $12.52/per annum (CY2019) x 20 = $250
  • bottom line: AAPL may be ripe for a pull-back (or as some might say, a "buying opportunity)
************************************
Miscellaneous

The market: I've said this before ... see disclaimer below -- for those with a long horizon, say 20 years, this is an incredibly great time for picking up some incredibly "cheap" energy stocks. For shale operators, operators in the Bakken are now benefiting from full-cycle pricing to half-cycle pricing; for operators in the Permian, in general, they are not quite there yet but they will get there more quickly than the Bakken operators did. Idle chatter. Getting way ahead of my headlights.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

A Keffiyeh For Covfefe -- November 10, 2019

Professionals could do better but this will have to do until professionals get around to it.


In terms of money, biggest race in professional horse racing: the Breeder's Cup.

For those who missed this last weekend:


And for those complaining about the Starbucks holiday cups:

How Bakken Operators Are Capturing Oil That Would Otherwise Be "Orphaned" -- November 10, 2019

There are a number of "innovations" in the Bakken in which operators are utilizing to capture orphan oil. This remains a problem in the Permian, but the operators and regulators in North Dakota seem to have it figured out. With some consolidation in the Permian, the same thing will happen in the Permian, all to the good.

Note how CLR is capturing oil that would otherwise be "orphaned":


Wells number 1 - 6 in the graphic below were extended less than 100 feet, across the section line/drilling unit line, to capture otherwise "orphaned" oil.

I'm curious about the spacing unit for these wells. Let's look at #1 in the graphic below.
  • 35347, 1,974, CLR, Sorenson 10-16H1, four sections; 29 stages, 7.2 million lbsAlkali Creek, t4/19; cum 138K 9/19; four-section spacing unit -- sections 16/21/28/33-154-94
Note the relatively low number of stages used for this well. This is commonly seen in Three Forks wells.

Production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20193015972160511218940695330907226
BAKKEN8-20193122641227191612140999352725312
BAKKEN7-20193122154220421743235100898425711
BAKKEN6-201930244532442322228388292279415645
BAKKEN5-20193139742397803647958587545583639
BAKKEN4-20191112751124771071516308145511757
BAKKEN3-20192009813870387
 
****************************************
Giving Me A "Thumbs Up"

The artist taking a break.

OMG! CLR Did It Again! The CLR Carus Wells -- Cedar Coulee -- Section 28-147-96

Initial production data for CLR Carus wells coming off the confidential list during the week of November 17, 2019, are posted here

For newbies:
  • these are huge wells; most will have a 50K+ month of production;
  • they are just one mile west of one of the most prolific fields in the Bakken
  • until now, the Cedar Coulee oil field has had little activity
  • all that talk about putting too many wells in one section seems not to be a problem in the Bakken
  • eleven wells sited in this section and it appears that is well less than half of what it will eventually have
Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. 

The graphic:


The wells in the graphic:
  • 21974, 379, CRL, Carus 2-28H1, t7/13; cum 308K 9/19; nice jump in production, 6/19;
  • 16648, 508, CRL, Carus 13-28H, t8/07; cum 411K 9/19; huge jump in production, 7/19;

Almost all of these Carus wells will have a 50K+ month of production:
  • 35550, 1,063, CLR, Carus 4-28H1, Cedar Coulee, t10/19; cum 5K after 7 days;
  • 35549, conf, Carus 5-28H, Cedar Coulee, producing; huge well;
  • 35548, conf, Carus 6-28H1, Cedar Coulee, producing; huge well;
  • 35547, 2,041, CLR, Carus 7-28H, 42 stages; 12.7 million lbs; Cedar Coulee, t8/19; cum 138K 9/19; see details here;

  • 35575, 1,397, Carus 8-28H1, Cedar Coulee, t8/19; cum 111K 19/19;
  • 35576, 2,018, Carus 9-28H, Cedar Coulee, t7/19; cum 137K 10/19;
  • 35577, 2,017, CLR, Carus 10-28H1, Cedar Coulee, t8/19; cum 113K 9/19; see this post;
  • 35578, 2,652, Carus 11-28H, Cedar Coulee, t7/19; cum 179K 10/19;
  • 35587, conf, Carus 12-28HSL1, Cedar Coulee, producing; huge well; see this post;
  • 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 157K 9/19;
  • 18636, 633, CLR, Bang 2-33T, Cedar Coulee, 5/10; cum 198K 9/19;
*****************************************
Example of Advantaged Oil

This should scare the heck out of Saudi Arabia. Think about it. And no one's talking about it. Very, very interesting.

The well:
  • 16648, 508, CRL, Carus 13-28H, t8/07; cum 411K 9/19; huge jump in production, 7/19; 
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2019292614326021324233229931805165
BAKKEN8-2019314058640539547404857947682478
BAKKEN7-20193042528423386015053111457916925
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-201942081946350246902428
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000

Compare with initial production back in 2008:
BAKKEN1-20083192069299378763376330
BAKKEN12-20073184488431305705970590
BAKKEN11-20073087738617249810781070
BAKKEN10-200731117721182956410697106970
BAKKEN9-20073014220141808586236230
BAKKEN8-20073110833107292252000

The Greek Gods -- Enerplus -- Section 33-149-93 -- Mandaree Oil Field

Graphics:



Wells in the graphics:
  • 23226, 752, Enerplus, Calypso 149-93-33C-28H TF, t3/13; cum 251K 4/19; off line as of 4/19; remains off line 9/19;
  • 23227, 732, Enerplus, Atlas 149-93-33C-28H, t2/13; cum 263K 4/19; off line as of 4/19; a few days of production since then, 9/19;

  • 34843, conf, Enerplus, Boreas ....H, Mandaree, producing nicely;
  • 34842, conf, Enerplus, Metis ....TF, Mandaree, producing;
  • 34841, conf, Enerplus, Athena ....TF, Mandaree, producing;
  • 34840, conf, Enerplus, Zeus ....H, Mandaree, producing nicely;
  • 34839, conf, Enerplus, Athena ....TF, Mandaree, producing;
  • 34838, conf, Enerplus, Boreas ....H, Mandaree, producing nicely;
  • 34837, conf, Enerplus, Homer ....TF, Mandaree, producing;
  • 34836, conf, Enerplus, Nyx ....H, Mandaree, producing;
  • 34835, conf, Enerplus, Eos ....TF, Mandaree, producing;

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- A Lot Of DUCs? -- November 10, 2019

35605, conf, Whiting, Sylte 24-10-2H, Tyrone,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20191608515873
8-20191923117039
7-20191938216053
6-2019102338073
5-201932821

36039, conf, WPX, White Owl 32-29HY, Eagle Nest, no production data,
35835, conf, Kraken, Richard 19-20 1TFH, Sanish,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20192297310159
8-2019232289565
7-2019238019061
6-2019235500
5-20193080

35576, conf, CLR, Carus 9-28H, Cedar Coulee,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20192575129418
8-20194241642767
7-20192912929705
5-201912040

34722, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 12-25E 7T, Elidah,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20192169556586
8-20192915772452
7-20193196665915
6-20193726366272
5-20191231930001

36030, conf, RimRock, Skunk Creek 12-10-11-9H3B, South Fork, no production data,
35575, conf, CLR, Carus 8-28H1, Cedar Coulee,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20192697331541
8-20193524340998
7-20191630915285
5-20197170

34884, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-2, Antelope, no production data,
36040, conf, WPX, White Owl 32-29HC, Eagle Nest, no production data,
36031, conf, RimRock, Skunk Creek 12-10-11-16H, Antelope, no production data,
34883, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-3, Antelope, no production data,
29923, conf, Oasis, O M Erickson 5501 44-7 7B, Missouri Ridge,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20191761113312
8-20192108215092
7-20191506411635
6-20192383912384
5-2019196169341

36032, conf, RimRock, Skunk Creek 12-10-11-16HA, South Fork, no production data,
34882, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-4, Antelope, no production data,
32053, conf, Oasis, O M Erickson 5501 44-7 8BX, Missouri Ridge,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20191561210426
8-20191804310244
7-20192075512535
6-2019116825381
5-2019142519167

36364, conf, Newfield, Schneiderman 150-99-29-32-2HLW, South Tobacco Garden,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20192204227228

36033, conf, RimRock, Skunk Creek 12-10-11-16HA, South Fork, no production data,
34881, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-4, Antelope, no production data,
34880, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-5, Antelope, no production data,  
34836, conf, Enerplus Nyx, 149-93-33D-28H, Mandaree,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20193120128016
8-20192429815688
7-2019320621095
6-201913730

34835, conf, Enerplus, Eos 149-93-33D-28H-TF, Mandaree,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20192558422972
8-20192076313405
7-201922636773
6-20192320

30991, conf, BR, Gudcadia 8-1-26TFH-ULW, Dimmick Lake, no production data,
36296, conf, Newfield, Schneiderman 150-99-29-32-3H, South Tobacco Garden,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20192131721973

36035, conf, RimRock, Skunk Creek 12-10-14-1HU, South Fork, no production data,
36034, conf, RimRock, Skunk Creek 12-10-11-16H3U, South Fork, no production data,
30992, conf, BR, Gudmunson 7-1-26MBH, Elidah, no production data,
30113, conf, Oasis, Jensen 5501 44-7 7B, Missouri Ridge,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20191679613751
8-20192133216855
7-20192649919750
6-20191971210720
5-20191722111682

36300, conf, Newfield, Schneiderman 15-99-29-32-6H, South Tobacco Garden, no production data, 
33965, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 6-16H2, Elm Tree,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20192530522114
5-201919510

30993, conf, BR, Gudmunson 6-1-26TFH, Elidah, no production data,
35438, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield-156-97-1918H-6, Dollar Joe, no production data,
36299, conf, Newfield, Schneiderman 150-99-29-32-6H, South Tobacco Garden, no production data,
35439, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield156-97-1918H-7, Dollar Joe, no production data,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- November 10, 2019

Monday, November 18, 2019: 61 for the month; 156 for the quarter:
35605, conf, Whiting, Sylte 24-10-2H,

Sunday, November 17, 2019: 60 for the month; 155 for the quarter:
36039, conf, WPX, White Owl 32-29HY, 
35835, conf, Kraken, Richard 19-20 1TFH,
35576, conf, CLR, Carus 9-28H, 
34722, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 12-25E 7T

Saturday, November 16, 2019: 56 for the month; 151 for the quarter:
36030, conf, RimRock, Skunk Creek 12-10-11-9H3B,
35575, conf, CLR, Carus 8-28H1
34884, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-2, 

Friday, November 15, 2019: 53 for the month; 148 for the quarter:
36040, conf, WPX, White Owl 32-29HC, 
36031, conf, RimRock, Skunk Creek 12-10-11-16H,
34883, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-3, 
29923, conf, Oasis, O M Erickson 5501 44-7 7B, 

Thursday, November 14, 2019: 49 for the month; 144 for the quarter:
36032, conf, RimRock, Skunk Creek 12-10-11-16HA,
34882, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-4, 
32053, conf, Oasis, O M Erickson 5501 44-7 8BX,

Wednesday, November 13, 2019: 46 for the month; 141 for the quarter:
36364, conf, Newfield, Schneiderman 150-99-29-32-2HLW,
36033, conf, RimRock, Skunk Creek 12-10-11-16HA, 
34881, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-4, 
34880, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-5, 
34836, conf, Enerplus Nyx, 149-93-33D-28H, 
34835, conf, Enerplus, Eos 149-93-33D-28H-TF
30991, conf, BR, Gudcadia 8-1-26TFH-ULW

Tuesday, November 12, 2019: 39 for the month; 134 for the quarter:
36296, conf, Newfield, Schneiderman 150-99-29-32-3H, 
36035, conf, RimRock, Skunk Creek 12-10-14-1HU, 
36034, conf, RimRock, Skunk Creek 12-10-11-16H3U,
30992, conf, BR, Gudmunson 7-1-26MBH, 
30113, conf, Oasis, Jensen 5501 44-7 7B, 

Monday, November 11, 2019: 34 for the month; 129 for the quarter:
36300, conf, Newfield, Schneiderman 15-99-29-32-6H, 
33965, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 6-16H2,
30993, conf, BR, Gudmunson 6-1-26TFH

Sunday, November 10, 2019: 31 for the month; 126 for the quarter:
35438, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield-156-97-1918H-6, 

Saturday, November 9, 2019: 30 for the month; 125 for the quarter:
36299, conf, Newfield, Schneiderman 150-99-29-32-6H, 
35439, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield156-97-1918H-7, 

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? Iran Reports Huge Crude Oil Discovery -- November 10, 2019

Iran can't be trusted with reports like this, but in this case, there's nothing to suggest this report is bogus. Putting this in perspective: this is like finding another Bakken.


Link here. Data points -- with a bit of politics and opinion throw in --
  • Iran
  • new oil reservoir called "Namavaran"
  • previously proven reserves in the field: 31.3 billion bbls
  • new proven reserve in the field: 22 billion bbls
  • total proven reserve in the field: 53.3 billion bbls
  • new recoverable oil with recovery rate of 10%: 2.2 billion bbls
  • new oilfield -- estimates, 53 billion bbls or oil
  • located in the country's oil-rich Khuzestan province
  • will boost the country's reserves by a third
  • Iran: fourth-largest reserve holder of oil; second-largest holder of gas reserves 
  • no wonder "we" have sanctions on Iran
  • as Ill-Hand Omar would say: it's all about the Benjamins
  • country waiting for new leadership in Washington when all sanctions could be lifted

Week 45: November 3, 2019 -- November 9, 2019

Top international non-energy story:
Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story:
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
  • Security to be tight at Wednesday's -- November 13 -- DAPL hearing in Linton, ND 
  • ND Supreme Court heard challenge to new ND refinery
    • current ND Supreme Court Chief Justice says he will step down at the end of year; will remain on the bench, but not as Chief Justice; elected chief justice five times since 1993; 26 years; Gerald VandeWalle, 86
    • prior to Justice VandeWalle, Chief Justice Ralph Erickstad for "two decades"
Operations:
Fracking:
Advantaged oil:
DUCs:
Increased density projects:
Commentary:
Miscellaneous: