Saturday, October 26, 2019

Notes From All Over, Par 1 -- October 26, 2019

Random Apple, Inc, data point: think about this ....
Earlier this year, United Airlines accidentally revealed that Apple is its biggest customer in San Francisco, spending $150 million on airline tickets each year and purchasing an average of 50 business class seats on flights to Shanghai on a daily basis.
Think about this: an average of 50 business class seats on flights to Shanghai on a daily basis

Google: If you enter the United States on a visa waiver, your maximum stay will be 90 days. With a B-2 tourist visa, by contrast, you will normally be allowed to stay for up to six months. What's more, with a B-2 visa, you can apply to extend your stay even longer.

From social media:
UA operates two direct flights daily from SFO-PVG using the B777 aircraft. Each has 48 business class Polaris seats and roundtrip airfare is about $8K-$10K depending on the day and morning or evening flight.
Out of 96 Polaris seats available, AAPL is filling up over half each day.
If AAPL is buying 50 round-trip tickets every day or 18,250 round-trips every year, which contributes $150 million revenue annually to UA, then AAPL is paying about $8220 per ticket.
Federally Compliant State Driver's Licenses: I remember all that angst about folks who lived in states whose state driver's licenses failed to comply with federally mandated criteria to be used for flying on commercial aircraft. States have picked up the pace. Only three states are not yet compliant, and they have all been given waivers: Oklahoma, Oregon, and New Jersey. The deadline is October 1, 2020, and it's unlikely the US will extend current waivers for the three states. Oregon, for example, says their "RealID" will be available beginning July 1, 2020.

World Series, from a google search:
Houston can find some comfort in the history books too, as 10 of the 13 teams to come back from 0-2 in the postseason did so in the World Series. The New York Yankees were the last team to manage that, when they erased a two-game deficit to beat the Braves 4-2 in 1996 after losing their first two games at home.

Bakken Hits Another Recent Record -- Oil/Well/Day -- October 26, 2019

See this post for background -- random update -- October 12, 2019 -- Bakken oil/well/day.

That was posted just a couple of days before the October Director's Cut -- August, 2019, production data was posted -- Bakken oil production / well / day had hit a new four-year high -- 105 bbls / well / day (average).

Here's the graphic:


I thought that was about as good as it was going to get, but now we have another month of data:


One has to go all the way back to December, 2015, to see 106 bbls / well / day. 

Tag: oil/well/day.

MRO's Debbie Baklenko With Nice Jump In Production, Antelope-Sanish Field -- October 26, 2019

For newbies:
  • for an Antelope-Sanish well this was a pretty mediocre well when it was drilled in 2011, over eight years ago
  • it declined slowly but plateaued at 1,500 bbls/month
  • it was off line 3.5 months in late 2018
  • when it came back on line, huge jump to 14,000 bbls in 14 days; extrapolates to 30,000 bbls/month
The well:
  • 19838, 1,069, MRO, Debbie Baklenko USA 12-26H, Antelope-Sanish, t6/11; cum 280K 8/19; 
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-201931198619171932253502231
SANISH7-201922213721912434240502163
SANISH6-201930442443754647526104856
SANISH5-201931646963616466747106920
SANISH4-201930700672407742815307581
SANISH3-201916605358297423699506564
SANISH2-201917661266869509753307080
SANISH1-20190000000
SANISH12-20181413796137281699419780018940
SANISH11-2018311501544510445
SANISH10-20180000000
SANISH9-20180000000
SANISH8-20183113781503286262302152
SANISH7-20183115951455358317172540
SANISH6-201829178917543573326412696
SANISH5-201816649676153131101013

XTO Has A Monster Well In Bear Den With Recent Jump In Production -- October 26, 2019

For newbies:
  • this well was drilled back in 2011
  • a fairly good well in a great field back in 2011: the Bear Den
  • a steady Eddy well; plateaued at about 2,500 bbls/month
  • in early 2019, taken off line for about five months
  • when it came back on line, huge jump in production
  • closing in on 500K cumulative, this will be a monster well
The well:
  • 19959, 1,572, XTO, Walton 43X-19, Bear Den, t11/11; cum 473K 8/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20193122958224712249724267856715515
BAKKEN7-2019171894918843230173849989437508
BAKKEN6-20191003084000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-201974516996594981691
BAKKEN2-20192522842333237439824101796
BAKKEN1-20192524822245352392737429
BAKKEN12-2018272660268333244184006260
BAKKEN11-20182725632534277321230800
BAKKEN10-2018272503253431234422943376

Petro-Hunt Has A Monster Well In The Charlson WIth A Jump In Production In 11/18 -- October 26, 2019

For newbies:
  • this well was drilled back in 2011 -- about 8 years ago
  • as a Charlson well, it was a great well, but the typical Bakken decline took it to 3,000 bbls/month by 8/18, about a year ago
  • in 10/18, after being off line for about a month, it showed a huge jump in production
  • at 620,000 bbls cumulative, this is a monster well
The well:
  • 19979, 817, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22C-15-1H, Charlson, t7/11; cum 620K 8/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2019296867677635831490689795746
BAKKEN7-201961565138536323941838549
BAKKEN6-2019612351405591232922870
BAKKEN5-20192976407674317715377114593786
BAKKEN4-20193083288374354513546133440
BAKKEN3-2019319441962147451473014214300
BAKKEN2-201928680066173022854883600
BAKKEN1-2019311101610996463514465142490
BAKKEN12-2018311262612616569017252158461190
BAKKEN11-2018301215212112602317109617010786
BAKKEN10-2018201003910029507015201137021499
BAKKEN9-201810881961143175016800
BAKKEN8-201831280727565405642537155
BAKKEN7-2018312820274759553314768347
BAKKEN6-2018302599258471251364435492
BAKKEN5-201831279127434875607537120

MRO Well In Van Hook Oil Field With Jump In Production -- October 26, 2019

For newbies:
  • this well was drilled in 2010, almost nine years ago
  • it had a small IP, and was a mediocre well
  • Bakken decline and plateaued to about 2,500 bbls/month
  • in late 2018, taken off line for five months
  • when it came back on line, it produce 15,800 bbls in first full month of new production; 
  • has produced about 70,000 bbls in last six months
The well:
  • 19095, 689, MRO, Galen Fox USA 24-7H, Van Hook, t12/10; cum 491K 8/19;
Recent production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2019316030596720786715614649
BAKKEN7-20193176987803309371485712818
BAKKEN6-201930944495474923804547242616
BAKKEN5-201931139661418298921184489201961
BAKKEN4-2019301580015489161501308045057527
BAKKEN3-2019231031910132199491060751574754
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-2018012610000
BAKKEN11-201886139581365574750
BAKKEN10-201831241122325652102975810
BAKKEN9-2018302255217758320081524171
BAKKEN8-2018312286227554020171543153

BR Looks To Put 20 Wells On A 2560-Acre Unit In Pershing/Johnson Corner -- October 26, 2019

From the November, 2019, NDIC hearing dockets, case #28116, not a permit, but a case:

28116, BR, Pershing-Bakken, 20 wells on a 2560-acre unit; sections 16/21/28/33-150-96; McKenzie

Well in the drilling unit and immediate area:

  • 23622, 1,225, Abraxas, Lillibridge 20-17-1H, Pershing, t7/13; cum 449K 8/19;
  • 343285, 718, Abraxas, Lillibridge 20-17-9H, Pershing, t9/18; cum 134K 8/19;

  • 29805, 802, BR, Morgan 14-21TFH ULW, Pershing, t11/15; cum 115K 8/19;
  • 29867, 3,126, BR, Kirkland 14-21TFH ULW, Pershing, t10/15; cum 565K 8/19; huge jump in production 4/19, but great production from day one;
  • 29804, 2,806, BR, Kirkland 14-21MBH, Pershing, t11/15; cum 319K 8/19;
  • 29803, 2,325, BR, Morgan 14-21MBH, Pershing, t11/15; cum 258K 8/19;

  • 29795, 1,283, BR, Morgan 24-21TFH, Pershing, t1/16; cum 153K 8/19;
  • 29796, 1,723, BR, Kirkland 24-21MBH, Pershing, t12/15; cum 284K 8/19;
  • 29797, 2,084, BR, Morgan 24-21MBH, Pershing, t12/15; cum 253K 8/19;

  • 22791, 2,084, BR, Morgan 21-28TFH 3NH, Pershing, t1/13; cum 194K 8/19;
  • 22792, 2,926, BR, Kirkland 21-28TFH 3SH, Pershing, t1/13; cum 285K 8/19;
  • 22790, 2,325, BR, Kirkland 21-28MBH 2SH, Pershing, t1/12; cum 34K 8/19;
  • 22789, 2,004, BR, Morgan 21-28MBH 2NH, Pershing, t1/13; cum 262K 8/19;

  • 17529, 300, BR, Morgan 34-21H, Pershing, t2/09; cum 334K 8/19;

  • 29872, 1,443, BR, Kirkland 41-28TFH, Pershing, t11/15; cum 210K 8/19;
  • 29873, 2,084, BR, Kirkland 41-28MBH, Pershing, t11/15; cum 322K 8/19;
  • 29874, 2,004, BR, Morgan 41-28MBH, Pershing, t12/15; cum 280K 8/19;
  • 29875, 1,483, BR, Morgan 41-28TFH ULW, Johnson Corner, t11/15; cum 262K 8/19;

  • 28272, 2,685, BR, Copper Draw 11-27TFH ULW, Pershing, t11/14; cum 264K 8/19;

  • 17292, 765, BR, Kirkland 1-33H, Pershing, t10/08; cum 238K 8/19;

  • 34058, 541, BR, Kermit 8-8-32MBH, Pershing, t8/18; cum 163K 8/19;

Graphic:

Missouri River Runoff -- 2019 Runoff Could Set Record; Surpass 2011 Record; Water Shortage? What Water Shortage? -- October 22, 2019

From The Bismarck Tribune:
  • in 2011: "a historic runoff"; flooding hit Bismarck-Mandan area
  • this past year: record-setting rainfall and historic early October blizzard
  • global warming? what global warming?
  • but look at this: runoff forecast:
  • 61 million acre feet
  • more than 2.5 x the average of 25.3 million acre feet
  • the highest in 121 years
  • September, 2019: wettest on record for North Dakota
  • August and September came within 1/20 of an inch of breaking the 1900 record
  • October runoff? expected to be about 3 x the average (which is more than 2.5 x)
  • keep on worrying about global warming, Occasional Cortex

Week 43: October 20, 2019 -- October 26, 2019

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story:
Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota stories:
Operations:
Natural gas, North Dakota processing:
Fracking:
Pipelines:
Bakken 2.5:
Bakken economy:
Commentary:

Good Morning, Nothing About The Bakken -- October 26, 2019

I'm here .... but relaxing. Serious blogging will begin a bit later today. In fact, and I will put this in bold: there is nothing of interest in this post for anyone other than me. It's for the archives, for the granddaughters, to look back on this twenty years from now to see what I was doing.

This should put folks in a good mood: the week in pictures, over at Powerline.

A reader had this to say about an all-electric Mustang:
Sacrilege. Electric muscle cars are the ultimate oxymoron. Only way to get that throaty rumble in an electric is record it and play it through the sound system. Just ain't right. 
Agree completely. But you know, I'll bet they will be incredibly fun to drive. Golf carts that can go 100 mph. But, wow, look at the price. Of course that cost is offset by "absolutely" no maintenance costs, or inconvenience of oil changes.

Global warming: ski resorts are opening early this year. From Eldora Ski Resort, Eldora Mountain near Denver, this tweet:


******************************
Notes to the Granddaughters

New cooking hobby: slow cooking. Beef and/or pork. After several "experiments" with the classic "Crock Pot," I moved up to a larger "Black and Decker" slow cooker. Results were not as good. I'm going back to the smaller classic "Crock Pot." If I need to feed more than a few, I will use two or three Crock Pots. In addition to getting better results, I can slow cook different meats, vegetables, seasonings. Our granddaughters love the roast beef and pork, but our older daughter -- their mom -- is a vegetarian. She loves the "Crock Pot" vegetables -- so now with two Crock Pots, one with meat, one without. I have will have to talk to my Indian neighbors about vegetarian cooking. No curry, though. I love the preparation, slicing all the carrots, green beans, onions, potatoes. I love to do the seasoning. I simply ask "Alexa" to play Floyd Cramer. Incredibly relaxing.

Once that's all done, a quick batch of pancakes or Mickey Mouse waffles for Sophia and I'm ready for the day. And while all that's going on, I prepare "mac and cheese" -- all of this is refrigerated (pancakes/waffles can be frozen) and when Sophia comes home, she orders "off the menu." LOL.

I would love to do "learn" sushi, but it would simply be too expensive / poor use of time. With sushi, the restaurant experience is much, much better.

*******************************
Notes to the Granddaughters

Last night, May told me that the key fob to her 12-year-old Chrysler minivan was not working well. I had had experience replacing the battery in our 8-year-old Honda Civic about a year ago, so I felt comfortable replacing the battery in another fob.

I asked Sophia if she wanted to go to the store with me. Of course she said yes. I put her on my shoulders and we walked to the grocery store just down the street. Windy, drizzling, but but it was a nice walk. She kept the rain off me. LOL.

We got the battery, a CR 2032, I believe. Switched out the battery and good as new.

*******************************
Notes to the Granddaughters

I've talked about this before. Amazon Prime is absolutely incredible. I mentioned above that we walked to the store to get the battery but I could have gotten a much better deal ordering through Amazon, and with one-day delivery we would have had it by today, instead of last night. Actually, I forgot, I believe in our area they have same day delivery but the delivery charge is a tad high when just ordering batteries or printer ink.

I see USP, USPS, FedEx, and Amazon delivery vans in our apartment complex throughout the day, as early as 9:00 a.m. and as late as 10:00 p.m. It's absolutely insane. Drones would make a lot more sense, especially when delivering batteries or printer ink.

There are six fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year compared to last year. Retailers have to make up that six-day difference in sales. If you are wondering why we are now seeing "holiday sales," especially on the internet -- Walmart, et al -- that's why.

Human nature is such that a lot of "stuff" ordered for Christmas before Thanksgiving will be opened well before Christmas, and folks will then go out and buy more "stuff" for Christmas. All over again.

**********************************
Notes to the Granddaughters

It's a beautiful day in north Texas. Sophia is learning meteorology. She really understands sunny, partly sunny, partly cloudy, cloudy, overcast. Yesterday she pointed in one direction and said it was cloudy and off in the distance, in another direction it was overcast. The word she will learn today is "brisk." We had two days of rain and wind, and now it''s slightly breezy and "brisk." A beautiful day.

I enjoyed -- somewhat vicariously -- the Diwali festival in our apartment complex. It's a four-to-five day celebration but for some reason a google search says "Sunday, October 27, Diwali 2019, date may vary."  We've lived in public housing (military bases), rental homes, and/or apartments our entire lives except for two periods when we had our own house.

First house: 1977 - 1980, Vacaville, CA. In 1980, the USAF transferred us to Grand Forks, ND, and we never returned to California to live. We kept the house and rented it for, maybe fifteen years or so. Every year the real estate company taking care of the house raised the rent by a few percent. We never told the real estate agent, but we always sent the renter the difference back to them. If the rent was $800 and was raised to $850, we sent the renter $50 every month. We kept the first renter for ten years. The second renter was a young Hispanic couple, we were told. After two or three years in the house, they asked if they could buy the house. They gave us an offer; we rounded it down and told them they had a deal.

Second house: we were transferred from Turkey to Montgomery, AL. We were informed that the public schools in that part of town were unsuitable for our daughters. Our choice: either send them to a private school -- think F. Scott Fitzgerald and Zelda -- or buy a house in a neighborhood with better schools. We did the latter. We were there for two years and then transferred again, this time to Virginia. We rented the house for a number of years and when the economy finally improved a bit, we sold that house.

We've lived in other houses, but they were all rentals. But it's mostly been public housing or apartments. I enjoyed owning our homes, but in the big scheme of things, I prefer apartment living and, now, I can't imagine ever living in my own home again.

I absolutely love the social setting one finds in an apartment setting. I thought about that this Diwali.

Enough of this. Maybe more later.