Thursday, October 24, 2019

Enerplus Getting Ready To Frack Tortoise/Turtle Pad In Antelope Oil Field? -- October 24, 2019

Seven wells on the Enerplus tortoise/turtle pad in Antelope oil field have gone from SI/NC to conf. Other wells in the area have gone off line. It appears that Enerplus may be getting ready to frack these wells. FracFocus does not show frack data for any of the seven wells.

The wells that are now on confidential status:
  • 35062, SI/NC-->conf, middle Bakken, Leatherback, 33-053-08586,
  • 35063, SI/NC-->conf, TF1, Tortoise, 33-053-08587,
  • 35064, SI/NC-->conf, middle Bakken, Hawksbill, 33-053-08588,
  • 35065, SI/NC-->conf, TF1, Map, 33-053-08589,
  • 35066, SI/NC-->conf, middle Bakken, Painted, 33-053-08590,
  • 35067, SI/NC-->conf, TF2, Box, 33-053-08591,
  • 35068, SI/NC-->conf, middle Bakken, Terrapin, 33-053-08592,

Another Nightmare: China's Thirst For Energy -- Oilprice -- October 24, 2019

Nothing new here, but a fun article to read. See link below.

There have been a lot of "peak demand" articles recently. Apparently the "peak oil" meme failed, and so the next meme came along, "peak demand."

Sure.

Link here. Data points, quotes, and observations from the linked article:
  • China's population four times that of America's 330 million
  • China is already at a severe energy disadvantage
  • the gap will widen
  • China already scrambling to meet energy / water needs to sustain current population
  • energy / water demand to "skyrocket"
  • IEA: China's natural gas consumption to grow at nearly Beijing's previous projections
  • the forecast came after President XI placed a 25% tariff on LNG from the US, starting June 1, 2019; "cut off one's nose to spite's one's face"
  • that decision no doubt made a bad situation worse (sort of like the pipeline ban in NYC)
  • China already the world's fastest-growing importer of natural gas
  • second biggest importer of LNG, following Japan
  • China's efforts to boost domestic production may be too little, too late
"Peak demand"? Probably not.

**************************************
The Book Page

This week (actually it's a bedside bookshelf book): Provocations: Collected Essays, Camille Paglia, c. 2018.

I've had this book for a year. I will generally read an essay or two every few weeks. I have to be "in the mood" to read her essays, and it's a not book one would read from beginning to end.

Word for the day: melismatic.

From essay #49, "On Canons," page 383:
The centrality of canons can be seen in popular music. Seventeenth-century British ballads, preserved in America's Appalachian Mountains, were reinterpreted during the 1930s and '40s bythe leftist folk singers Woody Guthrie and Pete Seeger. Guthrie's devoted disciple, Bob Dylan, then shaped the imagination of an entire generation and made an immense impact on other singers and bands worldwide.
The canon in black music equally obvious: West African motifs (with melismatic Muslim tonalities) survived under slavery in rural African-American blues and were transmitted through singers Robert Johnson and Howlin' Wolf to young musicians in the postwar British blues revival, such as the Yardbirds, the Rolling Stones, and Led Zeppelin. In Brazil prolific canonical figures of genius status, such as Antonio Carlos Jobim and Dorival Caymmi, can be easily identified.
From elsewhere, an essay on Amy Winehouse:
You know what melisma is by now, surely. It's when a singer takes a word or phrase and, instead of stapling it to one note, uses the occasion to worry the word through the entire musical scale, in a display of vocal acrobatics designed to wow judges and people gathered at a wedding or a Bar Mitzvah.
It's showy. It's dazzling. It takes a while to learn.
Even Shakespeare had a phrase for it: "Sound and fury, signifying nothing."
Amy Winehouse had no use for such tricks. When she sang, she told you what she was actually feeling. In lyrics that were smart, snarky, darkly funny and often had a wicked backspin on them. But in her own colloquial, un-tricky, no-melismas-allowed-here voice.
**************************************
Politics

A brand new poll has been posted over at RealClearPolitics. This is a biggie. A lot of folks consider Quinnipiac one of the more reliable pollsters. If so, look at this:
  • Biden: 21% (wow -- down from 31% where he has been trending for quite some time)
  • Pocahontas: surges to 28%; and clearly out-pacing Biden; should give Biden huge concern
  • Sanders: pretty much unchanged at 15%
  • others: pretty much in line with where they've been for quite some time -- going nowhere
  • Klobuchar momentum: if one considers a jump from 2% to 3% momentum, Klobuchar has it
  • Buttigieg at 10% nationally, but in South Carolina he will be lucky to poll 3%
  • but that spread between Pocahontas and Biden in the Quinnipiac poll, I think, will turn out to be an inflection point

Active Rigs Hold At 56; WTI Closes Above $56; Bruin With Eleven New Permits -- October 24, 2019

Active rigs:

$56.2010/24/201910/24/201810/24/201710/24/201610/24/2015
Active Rigs5667533568

Eleven new permits, #37117 - #37127, inclusive:
  • Operator: Bruin E&P Operating
  • Field: Lone Tree Lake (Williams County); Ellisville (Williams County)
  • Comments: 
    • Bruin has permits for an 11-well Wm Brown pad in lot 4/section 1-157-99, Lone Tree Lake, and Ellisville
One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:
  • 29297, 56, Cornerstone Natural Resources, LLC, Jepsen B-18-6190,  Northeast Foothills, t10/19; cum --; fracked 8/9/2019 - 8/10, 2018; 2 million gallons of water (very small frack); it looks like 42.8% water by mass; 34.7% sand by mass; and the rest, resin-coated proppant (but not sure if I'm reading the table correctly; bottom line, percent-wise, lots of sand vs water; and resin-coated proppant)

Initial Production Data For Newly Fracked Four-Well MRO Pad In Bailey Oil Field -- October 24, 2019

Disclaimer: this was done very quickly; it's a relatively long note; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. I am posting it now based on available information, subject to change. But it was done quickly and errors are likely, but it gives me a good idea of what's going on in this particular area of the Bakken.

The four wells on the 4-well pad in the northeast corner of section14-145-94 are still on confidential list. A reader sent me initial production "runs." Because these wells are on the confidential list we don't know how many days they have been producing. Two of them have probably produced about two weeks; the other two closer to a full month. The initial production data for each of these four wells is noted below.

In addition, an old, old well, the Lily Reiss well was also re-fracked around the same time as these new wells were fracked but has not yet been brought back on line.

A huge thanks to the reader for providing this initial data.

The MRO-Bailey is a particularly interesting field. See tag. Also, see Bailey oil field.

The graphics:



The four-well pad still on confidential list (these come off the confidential list March 9, 2020):
  • 35820, conf, MRO, Maher 41-14TFH, Bailey, 33-025-03634, cum 48,334 bbls, unknown number of days of production; fracked 8/11/19 - 8/21/2019; 7.1 million gallons of water (moderate frack), 89.9% water by mass; sand, 9.9% by mass;
  • 36026, conf, MRO, Herbert 41-14H, Bailey, 33-025-03667, cum 46,693 bbls, unknown number of days of production; fracked 8/22/19 - 9/2/2019; 8.0 million gallons of water, 88.5% water by mass; sand, 11.3% by mass;
  • 36027, conf, MRO, Pletan 11-13TFH, Bailey, 33-025-03668, fracked; cum 27,762 bbls, unknown number of days of production; (partial month); fracked 8/11/19 - 8/21/2019; [note: CLR has Pletan wells also but they are in Jim Creek oil field]
  • 35821, conf, MRO, Bryden 11-13H, Bailey, 33-025-03635, fracked; cum 20,562 bbls, unknown number of days of production; (partial month), fracked 8/22/19 - 9/2/2019;
Other wells in graphics:
  • 16909, 260, MRO, Lily Reiss 41-14H, Bailey, t2/08; cum 126K 2/19; 33-025-00688, re-fracked; came off line 2/19; remains off line 8/19; fracked 8/1/2019 - 8/9/2019; 5.7 million gallons water (moderate frack), 89.2% water by mass; sand, 10.3% by mass; original frack was an open hole completioin in 2008; due to setback rules it was 655' FLS of section 23; MRO planned to extend this horizontal by approximately another 480 feet, approx 176' FSL of section 23, and will then plan for a 45-stage plug and perf style completion; scheduled to frack in June, 2019.Total drilling days: 34 days; for newbies -- note the number of drilling days; now, in 2019, the expectation is to drill these Bakken wells in seven (7) days. 92% in target zone; 100% in middle Bakken;
  • 18694: off line as of 7/19; remains off line 8/19; 569, MRO, Scott Gaugler 13-24H, Bailey, t8/10; cum 215K 7/19;
  • 17976: off line as of 6/19; back on line second half, 8/19; 110, BR, Patton 21-1H, Bailey, t9/09; cum 279K 8/19; recent production profile:
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN8-2019178756545295690527
    BAKKEN7-20190000000
    BAKKEN6-201972564321331811622
    BAKKEN5-20193012791320617773319380
    BAKKEN4-20192696012637626770612
    BAKKEN3-20192310546724916820625
    BAKKEN2-2019207416923444023520
    BAKKEN1-201931115710995347046270
********************** 
Unaffected Well 

17817, 506, MRO, Kempf Trust 21-14H, Bailey, t6/09; cum 425K 8/19, recent production; the Kempf Trust was re-fracked in 2017, see that data below this spreadsheet:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-201928486248371037244827393276
BAKKEN7-20193164976513580558275078150
BAKKEN6-20193063686425598957855100101
BAKKEN5-201931733073096908628030912536
BAKKEN4-20193076607685681966765670338
BAKKEN3-20193188289002805276056704152
BAKKEN2-201928945792108637769154221504
BAKKEN1-20191833743561307830502588155
BAKKEN12-201831927392418028972971631793

Of interest, this well (#17817) had a huge jump in production in October, 2017, after it was re-fracked, 6/28/2017 - 9/6/2017, 5.2 million gallons of water, moderate frack; 89.9 water by mass; 9.75 sand by mass:

BAKKEN11-2018309892977486611036575172039
BAKKEN10-2018311187911934108551252579713617
BAKKEN9-201816560455495171536637091215
BAKKEN8-20183111894118001071212116111710
BAKKEN7-20183113300133941163612988102201737
BAKKEN6-20183013485134991083510624952567
BAKKEN5-201831159551595413038802122984520
BAKKEN4-201830180421802414591900406896
BAKKEN3-2018312110621154179081051208072
BAKKEN2-2018282252822522197991114908575
BAKKEN1-201831273882752027949136266989819
BAKKEN12-2017272612225939228301593968812323
BAKKEN11-2017251667116661961210148898166
BAKKEN10-201713127251261406272374801
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-201710020000
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-201719448506252394135119
BAKKEN2-20172874270914452025617
BAKKEN1-20173067074727649319360

Another Old Bakken Well Goes Over 500,000 Bbl Cumulative; 18-Fold Jump In Most Recent Month -- Ten Years Old -- October 24, 2019

This well goes over 500,000 bbls cumulative, and the well does it with a flourish:
  • 17688, 1,163, Petro-Hunt, USA 3D-4-4H, Charlson, t9/09; cum 505K 8/19;
This well was drilled in 2009, ten years ago.

Maximum production, first full month after completion back in 2009: 22,798 bbls in October, 2009.

Since then, a steady Eddie.

In 2011, production dropped to less than 3,000 bbls/month (January, 2011).

But several months later it was back up to 8,000 bbls/month (April, 2011).

 Simply a very, very nice well, Plateaued out at about 3,000 bbls/month (2019).

Taken off line for several weeks in June, 2019, and then, again, in July, 2019, and this was the result. Again, remember, this well is ten years old; it has been a nice performer for ten years, but decline rate brought it down to 3,000 bbls/month, and then this, 36,475/2,000 =  18-fold jump:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20193136475367396566253841320812176
BAKKEN7-2019745363961510747534131622
BAKKEN6-20193145464322652480
BAKKEN5-201931187920481632716248515
BAKKEN4-2019301652160022026002236155
BAKKEN3-20193121402447317334431280
BAKKEN2-201927230422414273693342976
BAKKEN1-201931259825894434288399379
BAKKEN12-201831298033885724824458820

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- October 24, 2019

Link here.


Activity In The Charlson -- Random Update -- October 24, 2019

The well:
  • 27918, 1,167, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-1HS, 4 sections; Charlson, t12/14; cum 444K 8/19;
Period of interest:
BAKKEN1-201831649866361480648362670
BAKKEN12-201731790776741932917579401033
BAKKEN11-2017301038910593311815796529810289
BAKKEN10-2017311241412686325518593018377
BAKKEN9-2017301236311797331018206018025
BAKKEN8-201733314721436386170
BAKKEN7-201731335331891487559753810
BAKKEN6-2017302986329412983835373197
BAKKEN5-201731274326181190495515193436
BAKKEN4-201730342134011363483048300

So, this well was drilled in 2014, about five years ago. It was a great well in a great oil field. So, whatever it was doing, on top of that it had a huge jump in production in September, 2017, jumping from 3,000 bbls per month to 12,000 bbls/month.

So, what happened in September, 2017? A neighboring well was fracked, toe-to-heel, exactly paralleling #27918.

That well:
  • 30369, 1,613, Petro-Hunt, Thompson 153-95-8D-6-3H, Charlson, t9/17, cum 301K 6/19; came off line 6/19;
Initial production (watch for the dreaded Bakken decline):
BAKKEN6-2018291839918324655524171239810
BAKKEN5-2018201242912247440616834167016
BAKKEN4-2018729392939408380537580
BAKKEN3-2018311021310459158212653124370
BAKKEN2-201828816481861228916489690
BAKKEN1-2018311221812330170514494142780
BAKKEN12-201731147181462321071733416999119
BAKKEN11-2017301789317918275521664214550
BAKKEN10-2017312221422161329827542273260
BAKKEN9-201728249612427545772954628907500

**********************
Another Well On Same Pad Also Just Went Off Line

Interestingly enough, another well on the same pad as #30369 also went off line at the very same time.

That well:
  •  30368, IA/2,097, Petro-Hunt, Thompson 153-95-8D-6-2H, 55 stages; 4.6 million lbs (a very small frack); Charlson, t8/17; cum 263K 6/19;
Initial production:
BAKKEN5-2018311488814894805520265200570
BAKKEN4-2018824112305785313130810
BAKKEN3-2018311005810209270312944127280
BAKKEN2-2018281303113025302316789165940
BAKKEN1-2018311363213816261117529173130
BAKKEN12-201731141761419328481791417576122
BAKKEN11-2017301851118360366724005237960
BAKKEN10-2017312330723374472231342311260
BAKKEN9-2017202266121924427925990243101603

Obviously, there's a well in the immediate area that is about to be fracked or was recently fracked, but I can't find it. There are several wells on confidential status in the immediate area that might be candidates:
  • 36950, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-8A-31-2H, Charlson, no production data,
  • 36951, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-8A-31-1H, Charlson, no production data,
  • 33886, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-8A-31-3H, Charlson, no production data,
  • 33976, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-8A-31-4H, Charlson, no production data,

Natural Gas -- Re-Posting -- October 24, 2019

I can't recall now but I think I might have said that this year (or last year or next year, I forget) would be the Year of Natural Gas. Re-posting two incredibly interesting articles.

First, the EIA report: natural gas inventories: lots of it and more coming -- graphic previously posted --
  • for the week ending October, 11, 2019, first week since September 22, 2017, that working gas inventories have surpassed the previous five-year average (and the five-year average has been trending up)
  • weekly injections in three of the past four weeks were all higher than 100 billion cubic feet
  • weekly injections for three of the past four weeks, a whopping 27% more than usual injections for same time of year
  • this week also ended a 106-week streak of lower-than-normal natural gas inventories
  • this week's report will be out later today
Then, RBN Energy's blog today -- natural gas exports to Mexico swell, but is a tidal wave coming?
For some time now, natural gas producers in the Permian and the Eagle Ford have been counting on rising pipeline exports to Mexico to help absorb a lot of the incremental production in their plays.
Their hopes have been bolstered in the past couple of years by the build-out of a number of new pipelines from the Waha and Agua Dulce gas hubs to the U.S.-Mexico border. Gas pipeline development south of the border hasn’t kept pace, though, mostly due to regulatory and construction delays. Also, a recent dispute over tariffs on a newly completed large-diameter pipeline, extending from the southern tip of Texas to key points along Mexico’s Gulf Coast, had left the pipe sitting empty this summer.
That tiff has since been resolved and gas is flowing on the new pipeline, allowing those piped southbound exports to hit a daily record high near 5.9 Bcf/d earlier this month and average above 5.5 Bcf/d this month to date.
Plus, progress is being made on other planned Mexican pipes too. This all leads us to ask, is the long-promised surge in U.S. gas exports to Mexico just around the corner? Today, we look at the latest developments regarding Mexico’s natural gas pipeline infrastructure additions.

Number Of Active Rigs In North Dakota Slumps To 55 -- Lowest In Quite Some Time -- October 24, 2019

Natural gas inventories: lots of it and more coming -- graphic previously posted --
  • for the week ending October, 11, 2019, first week since September 22, 2017, that working gas inventories have surpassed the previous five-year average (and the five-year average has been trending up)
  • weekly injections in three of the past four weeks were all higher than 100 billion cubic feet
  • weekly injections for three of the past four weeks, a whopping 27% more than usual injections for same time of year
  • this week also ended a 106-week streak of lower-than-normal natural gas inventories
  • this week's report will be out later today
Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, October 24, 2019: 81 for the month; 81 for the quarter:
  • 35838, 590, Kraken Development, Aurora 19-20 4TFH, Sanish, t5/19; cum 87K 8/19;
  • 35837, 536, Kraken Development, Colter 19-20 3H, Sanish, t5/19; cum 79K 8/19;
  • 35836, 379, Kraken Development, Gladys 19-20 2TFH, Sanish, t5/19; cum 70K 8/19;
  • 35799, 2,517, Whiting, Link 31-14-2H, Foreman Butte, t5/19; cum 81K 8/19;
  • 35208, 1,007, Whiting, Moline 21-14-3H, Tyrone, t5/19; cum 64K 8/19;
Active rigs:

$55.6310/24/201910/24/201810/24/201710/24/201610/24/2015
Active Rigs5567533568

RBN Energy: natural gas exports to Mexico swell, but is a tidal wave coming?
For some time now, natural gas producers in the Permian and the Eagle Ford have been counting on rising pipeline exports to Mexico to help absorb a lot of the incremental production in their plays.
Their hopes have been bolstered in the past couple of years by the build-out of a number of new pipelines from the Waha and Agua Dulce gas hubs to the U.S.-Mexico border. Gas pipeline development south of the border hasn’t kept pace, though, mostly due to regulatory and construction delays. Also, a recent dispute over tariffs on a newly completed large-diameter pipeline, extending from the southern tip of Texas to key points along Mexico’s Gulf Coast, had left the pipe sitting empty this summer.
That tiff has since been resolved and gas is flowing on the new pipeline, allowing those piped southbound exports to hit a daily record high near 5.9 Bcf/d earlier this month and average above 5.5 Bcf/d this month to date.
Plus, progress is being made on other planned Mexican pipes too. This all leads us to ask, is the long-promised surge in U.S. gas exports to Mexico just around the corner? Today, we look at the latest developments regarding Mexico’s natural gas pipeline infrastructure additions.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

SRE: It's hard not to connect the RBN Energy blog today and price action of SRE which appears to have hit a new high yesterday.
  • 52-week range: $104 - $148
  • yesterday: closed up $1.12, about 3/4th of a percent
  • pays 2.63%
  • needs to insulate itself from California craziness, particularly wildfires, forest fires

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- October 24, 2019

First things first: wow! What happened? I quit checking the Houston-Nationals baseball score about the 4th inning -- tied at 2 - 2. I check back in later, it happens to be the middle of the 9th and the score is 12 - 3. The series is over.

Jobless claims: link here
  • prior: 214K
  • revised: 218K
  • consensus: 214K
  • actual: 212K
Amazon: after market close -- shares fell 8% after earnings miss. AWS revenue was $9.0 billion in the quarter, up from $6.68 billions a year ago, with operating income at $2.26 billion versus $2.098 billion a year ago. Sales of $70 billion, up 24% from a year ago, at the high end of the company's guidance range of $66 billion to $70 billion, and ahead of the Street consensus of $68.8 billion. Earnings: "$4.23/share well below the consensus of $4.60/share." [Actually I wouldn't call that much of a miss at all -- buying opportunity when shares fall 8% on an incredibly good report for those with a long horizon. See disclaimer.] Later, October 25, 2019: I am incredibly amazed how "shallow" financial analysts seem to be. I still can't get over the fact that Amazon shares were beat down yesterday despite what I thought was an incredibly good report. Now this story, today, over at Yahoo!Finance:
  • profits were held back by Amazon's $800 million investment in the expansion of one-day delivery services (Amazon is still thinking like a growth company, not a mature company)
  • AWS sales growth slowed to 35% vs 37% (big whoop) in the second quarter (sic)
  • AWS also saw its profit margins come under pressure amid increased competitive activity in cloud services (okay)
  • Amazon warned on fourth quarter profits: yes, it planned to spend another $1.5 billion on its one-day delivery rollout
Disclaimer: I love Amazon as a company; I don't hold any shares directly. But as a company, it's incredible. I've talked about it often. One-day delivery is ... spooky. It's like having a valet.

Boeing; this took a while to download overnight; not sure what that all about."Will the Boeing 737 Max ever fly again?" -- The Week.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Edwards Lifesciences: 3Q19 earnings, link here.

Oil: GS by Nick Cunningham. Consider the source. But I found the article interesting. Sorry if I disappoint folks for linking this writer.

Oil: another interesting article over at oilprice. Again, sorry if I disappoint folks for linking this site. It seems the three major US shale plays stack up a little differently when it comes to outlook.

Tesla: how did analysts get it so wrong? From Markets Insider just before the earnings release --
Wall Street is expecting Tesla to post a roughly $52 million loss on $6.45 billion in revenue for the period. During the same quarter last year, the company reported a profit of $343 million on $6.82 billion in sales. Tesla last reported a profit in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Some analysts warned that this quarter's results might not be pretty following disappointing vehicle-production data reported earlier this month.
Tesla: perhaps some answers here, smartkarma. Great graphics. The graphics definitely paint a different story than the narrative.

Apple Pay: overtakes the Starbucks mobile app to become the most popular mobile payment system in the United States. Link here. Says more about Starbucks than it says about Apple Pay. Having said that, Starbucks has been around "forever"; Apple Pay is, like, two or three years old.