Friday, October 4, 2019

A Re-Entry -- Tyler Horizontal -- Southwest Corner Of North Dakota -- October 4, 2019

Updates

October 22, 2019: it looks like they completed the re-entry on this well back in September, 2019, and supposedly back into production. Current production data at NDIC through August, 2019, so it might be two months before we see production data for this well.


Original Post

A reader brought this one to my attention. The rig: True 36.

The Tyler/Heath is linked at the sidebar at the right

The graphics:




The scout ticket:


The permit:


**************************************
Let's Rumble

Rumble, Link Wray
 
The song was banned from radio stations in New York and Boston for fear it might actually incite gang violence—the first and only instrumental song to be banned from the air. "Rumble" acquired its name from the stepdaughter of Archie Bleyer, who released it on his Cadence Records.

Wow, After A Long Week -- Nothing But Linda Ronstadt Tonight -- October 4, 2019

So much to post, but if I do post anything, it will simply be some incredible wells in the Bakken.

Have a great weekend.

Belated happy birthday to this Cedar Creek / Ordovician well:
  • 2949, 260, Denbury Onshore, Cedar Creek Unit 8B 14X-2A-8, Cedar Creek, unitized, t8/61; cum 479K 8/19; producing for 58 years;
From an earlier post:
Recently, the oldest actively producing well, #35, was put on the AB list.
  • 35, 503, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Devonian unit H-310, Beaver Lodge, t4/52; cum 216K 7/17;
  • 35, 263, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Devonian Unit H-310, Beaver Ldoge, t3/160; cum 2.091755 million bbls;  
I had to go through a lot of permits to find the current oldest actively producing wells. These appear to be the five oldest actively producing wells. They are vertical wells with a depth of around 9,000 - 12,000 feet. They are Madison wells, and the oldest will turn 65 years old this year.

These Madison wells have each taken 50+ years to produce 500,000 bbls.

The wells:
  • 498, 292, Hess, Tioga-Madison Unit L-132 HR, Tioga, t7/54; cum 534K 8/19; still active, but barley;
  • 554, 408, Hess, Tioga-Madison Unit L-128 HR, Tioga, t8/54; cum 282K 8/19;
  • 629, 159, Hess, Tioga-Madison Unit O-151 HR, Tioga, t9/54, cum 785K 8/19;
  • 637, 350, Rim Operating, Hofflund 18HR, Hofflund, t12/54; cum 403K 8/19;
  • 774, 156, Petro-Hunt, CMSU D0216, Charlson, t6/55; cum 475K 8/19;
It looks like #1987, Mr Woodrow Star "A" 1 in the Antelope-Sanish is finished, though it did produce 58 bbls over 4 days in 6/19; now "IA";

Then this one:
  • 3983, 234, Enduro Operating, North Dakota C A 3, a Devonian well, vertical, 320-acre spacing, t1/66, cum 1.40 million bbls; 8/19; celebrated its 53rd anniversary January, 2019; 
From an old, old post, but such a good post:

********************************
Notes To The Granddaughters

I tell the oldest granddaughter to never complain about or be fearful of work. Work and play hard; work and play til you get exhausted. Go to bed exhausted. Never worry about not being able to sleep. You will sleep when you have to. Never pass up an opportunity to try something new. Don't assume you will never see a certain person again. It is amazing how often paths cross and even more interesting how often one thinks of people you've met throughout life. Treasure each one of your classmates, elementary, middle, high school, college. Never quit reading. Always count your blessings. When things get tough/bad, just tell yourself, "this, too, will end."

I remember years ago running into a childhood friend who was several years younger than I. Perhaps I was in middle school when he was in elementary school. He says the one thing he remembers most about me: I was always saying, "this, too, will end." He says that mantra (?) more than any other, got him through some tough times in life. [It's funny; he grew up to be much more successful than I.]

*********************************
Summer of '42, Michel Legrand

This song becomes even more poignant when one recalls world events in 1942, and especially while reading The Making of the Atomic Bomb, Richard Rhodes, c. 1986.

Two comments from the YouTube link regarding this song:
You should read the book, it is hilarious, from chapter 8 on. OMG, laugh-out-load funny.
Hermie was a real character, and this was his biography, all the things said and done were all real. He said the book started out as a tribute to his mother and his best friend, Oscy, aka Oscar, who was killed during the Korean war as a medic on Hermie's 24th birthday, after that he never celebrated his own birthday again.
The book and movie evolved from a tribute to Oscar and their friendship to a love story and coming of age.
Hermie originally sold the screenplay as a screenplay, then after they filmed the movie, the producers asked him if he could write a book.
Hermie finished the book in two weeks, and the book became an instant best seller. Also, the producers of the movie weren't sure if it would be a hit, and offered Hermie a percentage instead of a salary. Hermie accepted and the movie became the sleeper hit of 1973. He said the movie and book made him so much money he never had to work again just from the residuals.
Jennifer O'Neil when she acted in this film this was the exact age of Dorothy character was in real life when Hermie met her. Dorothy was a 20-21 newlywed bride. Jennifer O'Neil bought the rights to the book, in hopes of making a sequel but obviously that never happened as Mrs. O'Neil is in her seventies now.
When the movie came out in 1973, about twelve women wrote to Hermie claiming to be Dorothy. One of them was the real Dorothy, Hermie could tell because of the hand writing and the contents of the letter. This was in 1973, and the movie took place in 1942, so the real Dorothy who was then 20, would have been in her 50's. The letter suggested they let things lie, because Dorothy remarried and was happy and was a Grandmother. So neither of them revisited the past. The whole movie was real, the only thing made up was the Packet Island, which was supposed to be Nantucket Island off of Massachusetts. But the movie was filmed in California up north of San Francisco, off of Mendocino. It's funny because it was filmed on the west coast they had to film the sunset as a sunrise where Dorothy says to Hermie as she's finishing writing her letter to her husband. "What a beautiful morning!" was actually a sunset.
The second comment, I could have written:
My favorite movie theme.   I could easily identify because when I saw the film, I was in my teens, one year older than central character Hermie.  That was 43 years ago.  Forty-three years have come and gone, and no movie or theme ever affected me so poignantly.   Today this song still  brings me to tears.
Summer of '42 is one of my "top ten" movies. I have only seen it once. I cannot watch it a second time. Anyone who has had their own "summer of '42" would understand. I have had more than my share of such "summers."

Equinor With Five More Permits -- October 4, 2019

Active rigs:

$52.8110/4/201910/04/201810/04/201710/04/201610/04/2015
Active Rigs5864593268


Six new permits:
  • Operators Equinor (5); Eagle Operating
  • Fields: Cow Creek (Williams); Great Northern (Bottineau County)
  • Comments:
    • Equinor has permits for a five-well Tufto pad in section 18-155-100; Cow Creek
    • Eagle Operating has a permit for a Wobbly well in section 19-160-83; Great Northern oil field
Twelve permits renewed:
  • Petro-Hunt (7): three Clark Griswold Federal permits in McKenzie County; two Mongoose permits; and two Arsenal Federal permits, all in McKenzie County;
  • Liberty Resources Management (3): three McGinnity permits in Williams County
  • EOG (2): a Liberty LR permit and a Wayzetta permit, both in Mountrail County
*****************************
The Wobbly Permit


Walgreens Photos - Nothing About The Bakken -- October 4, 2019

There are probably a half-dozen "best" photograph-developing options.

I used Shutterfly at one time. Probably best for applying photographs to mugs, etc.

But, for everyday photograph development, I'm using Walgreens and love it.

At 9:52 a.m. this morning, I sent a single "negative" to Walgreens for an 8 x 10.  I received an automatic reply that the order had been received.

At 10:04 I received e-mail confirmation that my order was ready.

That's faster than I could do it at home even if I wanted. With the cost of printer ink, it makes no sense.

I'll pick up the photograph on the way home from Starbucks -- it's a two-minute bicycle ride from home.

And, if Rogaine is on sale, ..... LOL.

*********************************
Wall Street's Worst Fear

Biden, like Hillary, could be bought influenced. Pocahontas' signature plank: destroy Wall Street.


Link here.

[This was posted the day that mainstream media "agreed" that the Biden campaign was over.]

If one wants to see how fast and how far a candidate can fall, check out "Kamala" at the link. Truly startling.

I'm not sure what should be most concerning to Biden: how fast he is falling and the Ukraine story is yet to really "hit." Or how fast Pocahontas is rising. Now, take out Sanders, and it's hard to see how the Biden line / Pocahontas line don't cross within the next ten days.

On Wall Street, the crossing of the Biden line and the Pocahontas line will forever be known as the "death cross."

Hillary's hope(s):
  • brokered convention
  • Sanders re-covers
  • Pocahontas peaks too soon
  • Trump implodes
Any three of the four will do.

For Joe Biden:
Day after day, I'm more confused
I'm feeling the strain
I want to get lost, free my soul ....
.... and drift away.

I'm beginning to think I'm wasting time
I don't understand the things I do
The world outside looks so unkind
Give me the beat ... free my soul ...
I want to drift away ...

Thanks for the joy you've given me ...
Just drift away.

Drift Away, Dobie Gray

Bakken Economy -- October 4, 2019

From The Williston Wire:
The City of Williston will be featured on a five-minute documentary on PBS called Information Matrix.
The segment will feature ways Williston has become of the most popular destinations for millennials. Some of the footage will feature the new Williston Basin International Airport, Safari Trampoline Park and the Williston Recreation Center. Stay tuned to the Williston Wire for more details!
XWA: which commercial airliner will be the first? See this post.

Red Rock Ford, Williston:
A Ribbon Cutting was held Sept. 26 at the new Red Rock Ford located at 410 32nd Ave. W. Red Rock Ford is a family-owned, full-service new vehicle dealership serving the Williston region. Since 2016, Red Rock has grown to more than 60 employees focused on selling and servicing new Ford and pre-owned vehicles. The new facility was completed in 2019 and has provided them with the room necessary to expand their inventory, service offerings and employee count.
Sales tax receipt news:
The latest economic stats released for Williams County and Williston both show robust growth in sales tax revenue for the County. Among these figures, Williams County's sales tax distributions have already risen by $3 million year-to-date over receipts for the entire 2018. Williston is up by a million for the same period, through August.

XWA - Schedule - October 10, 2019



September, 2019, Jobs Report -- Unemployment Rate Lowest In Half A Century

Updates

Later, 10:31 a.m. CT: Yahoo!Finance appears to suggest that AAPL's all-time high was somewhere between $227 and $228/share (corrected for splits). If so, AAPL is practically there, trading now, just shy of $226. The Dow is up 213 points. 

Later, 10:02 a.m. CT: we added a third line to our Sprint account. We are incredibly impressed with the iPhone 11. This is what analysts missed with regard to the iPhone 11:
  • price went down, not up, over previous version; unprecedented? who knows, but certainly unexpected
  • camera is a bigger deal than many analysts realize; even I'm beginning to think the camera  is a big, big deal
  • most important: the previous version did not sell well; huge, huge pent-up demand for new phone -- this is what will really drive iPhone 11 sales
  • in addition, competition is so great, add-ons / incentives by carriers will bring consumers into show-rooms; comparing the iPhone 8, Xr, 11 -- a no-brainer
    • Hulu 
    • upgrades
  • this is the most excited I've been about an Apple iPhone in a  long, long time
Later, 10:01 a.m. CT:


Later, 9:58 a.m. CT:


Original Post

Graphics:


Mainstream media will underplay the report, but this is huge.

By the way, with record number of Americans working, the page of job growth obviously has to slow. From where will all the workers come? I know Joe Biden has a plan to add 720 million more women to the workforce. And, yet, no wage inflation. Modern economic theory seems to be going the way of Hubbert's theory. Or global warming. LOL. Obviously just tongue-in-cheek.

Market? Dow up 172 points. What's not to like.

Link here.

Numbers:
  • nonfarm payrolls: 136,000 vs. +145,000 expected and +168,000 in August
  • unemployment rate: 3.5% vs. 3.7% expected (absolutely outstanding) and 3.7% in August
  • average hourly earnings MoM: +0.00% vs. +0.2% expected (wage inflation? hardly) and +0.4% in August
  • average hourly earnings YoY: +2.9% vs. +3.2% expected (wage inflation? hardly) and +3.2% in August
  • Friday’s jobs report also saw:
  • August’s payroll additions upwardly revised to 168,000, from the 130,000 previously reported; and,
  • July’s job gains were revised up by 7,000 to 166,000
  • combined with September’s print, the new three-month average for job gains was just under 157,000, versus about 189,000 during the same three months of 2018
  • wage gains missed expectations on both a monthly and annual basis, remaining flat between August and September
  • over last year, average hourly earnings rose just 2.9%, marking the slowest pace of increases since July 2018
  • Full employment by any measure and no wage inflation.
My hunch there will be much written about this job report between now and the next presidential tweet.

Recession right around the corner.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
 

Two bellwethers:
  • F: down 2 cents in early trading
  • AAPL: on a tear -- up almost 2%; up almost $4.07; trading at $224.91
    • but get this: from a technical analysis, to which I never pay attention (wink, wink), the "buy point" for AAPL is $125 -- if AAPL hits $125, the computer algorithms are pre-wired to "BUY"
    • was it JP Morgan that set AAPL target at $285 or some such number?
I can't resist. One more.
  • TSLA: drops below support level at $230; down almost 2% in early morning trading; down about $4.00/share

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- October 4, 2019

AMLO cleans house: from Bloomberg -- that's about all you have to know -- "Aim-Low" replaced ten executives at the Pemex division that sets and monitors prices.

Oklahoma pipeline: another JV in the oil sector--
  • Holly Energy Partners LP
  • Plains All American Pipeline 
  • 50/50
  • 160,000 bopd, crude oil
  • Cushing crude oil hub to the Tulsa refining complex (HollyFrontier Corp)
  • about 60 miles?
  • $130 million; includes the existing JV Terminal contributed by Plains (valued at $40 million)
The next grand minimum: will the Thames freeze again? The reason I'm posting this -- it does a nice job of reminding us of the various solar cycles, the chronology, brief history. Link here.
  • Dalton Minimum (1790 - 1830) -- solar cycles 5 and 6
  • coincided with the Little Ice Age that disrupted the entire northern hemisphere
  • it was during this time that the Thames froze and agriculture in Britain and elsewhere came to a standstill
  • Cycles 25 and 26 will display much lower solar activity than the solar cycles of the Little Ice Age
  • NASA suggests: expect a potential period of cooling
  • solar cycle 25: 
  • will start in the year 2021 (January)
  • will last until 2031 (February)
  • solar cycle 26:
  • March, 2031, to February, 2041 
  • I was never taught "solar cycles" in school. I wonder if they teach it in Sweden? If so, Greta must have missed that day.
Nobel Peace Prize: speaking of Greta -- 100% sure she gets the Nobel Peace Prize. Well-played. Will be beatified by the Pope in 2119.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- October 4, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Two cents worth: I cannot believe how much I love this pullback.

Apple: so much happening -- I mentioned the other day that Apple is going to do very, very well with the iPhone 11 --
  • Apple to increase iPhone 11 output by up to 10% -- Bloomberg -- and it's only been out for a couple of weeks? Announced less than a month ago? Consumer Season (aka, Christmas) is just around the corner.
  • technical analysis: AAPL is on the verge of a breakout this fall. Fall? It's already winter in Montana. Buy point is $225 for some analysts. If AAPL hits $225 this winter, "Katy, bar the door." [Note: I pay zero attention to technical analysis except to watch the headlines. LOL.]

******************************************
Costco

Updates

October 7, 2019: Jim Cramer on Costco. I agree completely. Said the same thing to my wife after read the story. Looking at Costco's share price over the past few days, it doesn't look like many investors bought the "negative story" on Costco -- see original post.

Original Post

Didn't see this coming: Costco quarterly sales miss estimates amid fierce competition.  Reuters.  Key words as one scans the article:
  • competitive grocery space (no one beats Costco; no one)
  • Amazon
  • Walmart
  • expanding internationally, opening first warehouse in China about two months ago
  • record membership sign-ups in Shanghai
  • will open second Shanghai store in 2021: 25 million
  • NYC: 20 million
  • Chicago: half that
  • number of Costco stores in Manhattan: 1
  • total revenue rose about 7% to $47.50 billion vs estimates of $47.57 billion
  • you have to be kidding -- that's the miss?
  • then this: earnings came in at $2.69; 15 cents above expectations
  • that was the very last line in the story
  • I can think of a lot better headlines for this story than Costco sales miss estimates
  • two cents worth: I cannot believe how much I love this pullback
Tanker rates:


Most ridiculous headline over at Yahoo!Finance today: why Schwab's commission-free trades present a danger to investors.

Wind, Germany, from a reader. From the Clean Energy Wire:
  • Welt Online wrote that the German wind industry was “threatened by decline,” having shed 26,000 jobs in one year. After years of rapid growth, Germany’s onshore wind power's expansion has almost come to a standstill in the first half of 2019, when only 35 turbines were added
  • the reader also noted this: solar is beating wind in Germany right now
  • Berlin is at the same latitude as New Foundland, yet solar beats wind
  • worth re-posting:

This will kill manufacturing in Germany.


Five Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- October 4, 2019

Just checking in: I didn't watch the game. How did it turn out last night? Wow, wow, wow -- an exciting game for the fans. Pete Carroll gets the win, 30 - 29. I assume my son-in-law is happy. 

Rigs don't matter:


US rig demand continues decline: link at Rigzone. Data points:
  • lowest since February, 2018 -- like about two years ago
  • from 1,054 in September, 2018, to 860 this month, September, 2019
  • continued gains in productivity
West Virginia emerging as natural gas powerhouse. Previously posted. Link at Rigzone.
  • That is, until Pocahontas bans fracking.
  • "We're gonna put the oil workers out of work."
********************************** 
Back to the Bakken

Five wells coming off the confidential list today -- Friday, October 4, 2019: 15 for the month; 15 for the quarter:
  • 35649, SI/NC, WPX, Bird Bear 35-26HU, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 35315, 2,077, CLR, Putnam 11-25HSL, East Fork, t7/19; cum 43K 8/19;
  • 35314, 1,452, CLR, Putnam 10-25H1, East Fork, t6/19; cum 54K 8/19;
  • 35313, 1,354, CLR, Putnam 9-25H, East Fork, t6/19; cum 52K 8/19;
  • 31809, 2,581,, EOG, Riverview 21-3032H, Antelope-Sanish, t8/19; cum 29K over 14 days; extrapolates to 61K over 30 days;
Active rigs:

$52.5710/4/201910/04/201810/04/201710/04/201610/04/2015
Active Rigs5864593268

RBN Energy: how shifting Permian crude fundamentals affect trucking, costs.
The Permian Basin’s crude oil market over the last 18 months has exhibited so many dynamic changes that dedicated observers may be suffering from a bit of neck strain, if not outright whiplash. We’ve seen production rise at an unprecedented rate, followed by a period of slower growth. We’ve also watched the Permian very quickly transform from a region desperate for new long-haul pipeline capacity to a hotbed for midstream investment and infrastructure growth. While we’ve closely tracked these big-picture changes, a lot of other, smaller-scale knock-on effects have been occurring too, with potentially significant implications for the basin’s supply pricing and transportation economics. Today, we explain why the changing fortunes of Permian crude haulers may benefit producers in the basin.

Three To Get Started --- October 4, 2019, 2019

Lefse:


Hurricanes:



Politics: