Sunday, September 29, 2019

A CLR Hereford Federal Well Is Finally Producing -- September 29, 2019

Note: since one can't click on links from the comments, I've brought these comments up here. First, from a reader:
Elm Tree is the best field in the Bakken in terms of average well cumulative, per Shaleprofile.com.

There is a lot of variation in quality by year though. Mostly getting better over time, albeit, the best year was actually a small number of wells in 2016.
Impression I have is that they have gotten better in frac jobs,but also that the 2017 infill was pretty heavy with tight spacing, fighting some of the benefit in frac improvement.

And an odd pattern of development (probably from land issues). Several years of only a few wells per year and then a load of 2017/2018 wells by CLR.

There are three operators there, CLR (101 wells), Hess (13 wells), Slawson (4 wells).
Now, my reply:
I used to track the various fields in the Bakken to help me better understand what was going on. I haven't updated most of them in a long, long time, now that I have a better feeling for them.

Here is the list of fields I have updated over the years:
For quite awhile, I tracked productivity by field, again, to give me an idea of what was going on. That was labor intensive, so I haven't done it in a long time. One can see those lists by clicking on this URL and wading through a lot of posts:
 Original Post

Wow, this is pretty cool. From an earlier note:
  • September 12, 2019: #32354, 174, CLR, Hereford Federal 8-20H2, Elm Tree, t8/19; cum 0; has never produced anything; no frack data; API: 33-053-07430; FracFocus says fracked 3/28/17 - 4/15/17; huge frack with 12.6 million gallons of water; 88% water by mass; 8/19; still confidential, but production being posted; wow! 8/19 --producing!
Checking in on this well tonight: it is still confidential, but it is producing!

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-201935055041

Good luck to the "mom-and-pop" mineral owners on this one! 

MRO Wells In Chimney Butte Recently Completed/Fracked -- September 29, 2019

These three wells are still being reported as DUCs, but as least one has been fracked according to FracFocus, and so I assume all three have been fracked:
  • 36108,
  • 36265, SI/NC, recently fracked; MRO, Dorothy 14-12TFH, Chimney Butte, t--; cum --;
  • 36266,
What makes this so cool, through pure serendipity I found two good wells were recently taken off line. That often means one thing in the Bakken: neighbors being fracked. The two wells recently taken off line:
  • 16908, 248, MRO, Marlin 14-12H, Chimney Butte, t3/08; cum 154K 5/19; taken off line 5/19;
  • 16180, 128, MRO, Marlin 24-12H, Chimney Butte, t8/06; cum 354K 5/19; taken off line 5/19;
So, we'll check back in on these wells in a few months.

The BR Dakotan Wells Coming Back On Line -- September 29, 2019

After being off line for about a year, these wells are now coming back on line. I will update their 8/19 production when it becomes available:
January 10, 2019: #30090, #30091, #30092; neighboring well recently fracked. Still off line as of 6/19; wells back on line as of 7/19; with nice production;
One of the three wells:
  • 30092, 2,664, BR, CCU Dakota 7-8-17MBH, Corral Creek, t9/15; cum 242K 7/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-201927258224912684278011051601
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-201800200000
BAKKEN11-20183149129255460
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-201800650000
BAKKEN5-20181691698011632261810
BAKKEN4-2018271682181818597947170
BAKKEN3-2018311704182921597076150
BAKKEN2-2018281758175224594293370
BAKKEN1-2018311593148825723172140
BAKKEN12-201731101479028842541530

Futures -- Sunday Night -- September 29, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Futures don't mean a thing, but all things being equal, I'd rather see "green" than "red" any time, and futures are "green" right now -- 5:33 p.m. CT, September 29, 2019.

I've sure there have been similar periods, but it's not often one sees a market that really, really wants to take off, but is held back by uncertainty. Huge uncertainty.

Recession is just around the corner. From zerohedge a couple of days ago, "UMich confidence rebounds but democrats get more depressed."That sounds like a political cheap shot, but actually is not, surprisingly. Read on:
The preliminary UMich data showed a modest rebound in September after August's collapse and final data confirmed that trend continued into the end of the month.

UMich notes that impeachments divert the attention of the President and Congress away from economic policies, and may become conflated with partisan strategies. 
The big divergence was, once again, political as Dems confidence slumped to 72.0 vs 75.7 and Reps confidence rose to 119.5 from 112.8.
Despite the high levels of confidence, consumers have also expressed rising levels of economic uncertainty. Some of these concerns are rooted in partisanship, some due to conditions in the global economy (Brexit, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China), and some are tied to domestic economic policies. 
Trade policies have had the greatest negative impact on consumers, with a near record one-third of all consumers negatively mentioning trade policies in September when asked to explain in their own words the factors underlying their economic expectations.
And I'll bet not one respondent in a 1,000 even knew what was going in trade. I've never been called by UMich for any of their surveys.

Tesla 3Q19 sales. Wow, this will be fun to watch. Get out the popcorn. Predictions all over the board. The consensus is that Elon Musk will crush the numbers, and the shares of TSLA will surge. Not everyone agrees. From zerohedge again:
Well known Tesla analyst and skeptic, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research says in his latest note that Tesla's Q3 aggregated cars sold should fall 38.6% on a sequential basis, a result he simply refers to as "bad".
We might know as early as October 3, 2018, Friday, the numbers.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

T: ATT plans to return capital to its shareholders. I'll believe it when I see it.

Making Texas Great: EPD Will Add A Second Propane Dehydrogenation Plant At Mont Belvieu -- September 29, 2019

First things first: the Montana "Indian summer" snowstorm


A summer without sunspots? Very possible. This article may be re-posted later. From nextgrandminimum, September 24, 2019:
Could summer 2019 go down in history as “the summer without sunspots”? From June 21st until Sept 22nd, the sun was blank–no sunspots–more than 89% of the time. During the entire season only 6 tiny sunspots briefly popped up, often fading so quickly that readers would complain to Spaceweather.com, “you’ve labeled a sunspot that doesn’t exist!” (No, it just disappeared.) Not a single significant solar flare was detected during this period of extreme quiet. [Comment: if I understand this correctly, we are currently near the end of Solar Cycle 24; the next cycle, Cycle 25 "is slowly coming to life."
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

**********************************
Another Petrochemical Plant In Texas

Mentioned in this post: LyondellBasell.

EPD will build a second propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant at its complex in Mont Belvieu, TX.

Propane: C3H8.

All single bonds.

So, if one is going to "dehydrogenate," one is going to remove at least one hydrogen. That will convert a molecule with all single bonds (-anes) to a molecule with at least one double bond (-enes). So what? From wiki:
Dehydrogenation is an important reaction because it converts alkanes, which are relatively inert and thus low-valued, to olefins (including alkenes), which are reactive and thus more valuable. Alkenes are precursors to aldehydes, alcohols, polymers, and aromatics. 
And propane dehydrogenation?
Propane dehydrogenation (PDH) is a process step in the production of propylene from propane. PDH is vital to the petrochemical industry: propylene is the second most important starting product in the petrochemical industry after ethylene.
So, back to the story: EPD will build a second propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant at its complex in Mont Belvieu, TX.  Data points:
  • 35,000 bbls of propane daily to produce upwards of 1.65 billion lbs of polymer grade propane (propylene?) per year
  • long-term contracts between EPD and LyondellBasell as the anchor customer; other customers involved
  • EPD has licensed Honeywell’s UOP Oleflex propane process to produce PGP
Propylene is the raw material for plastic polypropylene, which is a common component mainly used in the automotive and textile industries, for plastic films for packaging and many other products.

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- Another Jump In Production And Not Taken Off Line Prior -- September 29, 2019

The Bakken never ceases to surprise me. Looking for something else I stumbled upon this.

The well:
  • 24163, 759, Enerplus, Cirrus 149-94-33D-28H, Eagle Nest, t4/13; cum 266K 8/19; note the jump in production from 1,500 bbls/month to almost 8,000 bbls/month and this well was not taken off prior to the jump in production. Note that produced water jumped, as well as natural gas produced -- by a large amount. The most recent sundry form was from 2014 when a pump was installed. It's sister well on the same pad, #24164, did not show any change in production during the same time period.
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20193177977322718711696411602
BAKKEN7-201931144014151077216042066
BAKKEN6-2019239659767441447931289
BAKKEN5-2019311589173499723831330964
BAKKEN4-201930159517361135239311581148
BAKKEN3-20192818151831135427224612180

BR's Shenandoah Wells Have Been Updated -- September 29, 2019

Of the eight or so Shenandoah wells, BR had a problem with one of them back in 2014.

They re-drilled and completed a sidetrack for that well back in 2015. Nice result.

The results of that well, and the other wells have been updated. Some great wells.

Production "Capacity" May Be Back To Normal, But "Refining" Certainly Is Not -- September 29, 2019

Remember this from September 25, 2019?


Not so fast. Today we are learning this:


This will not be easily or quickly fixed. Just a hunch.

MSB said he would spare no expense getting this back up and running. I wonder what American companies have the service contracts to accomplish this. There's no way the Saudis are doing this themselves.

The Enerplus Daffy Duck Pad

This was an earlier Enerplus turtle pad in the Antelope-Sanish.

Now we have a second Enerplus turtle pad where Daffy Duck, Dewey Duck, Scrooge all make an appearance.

These permits were noted on the January 2, 2018 daily activity report. Most of these wells have now been drilled, completed, and are coming off the confidential list this week.

The wells on this pad:
  • 20883, 724, Enerplus, Hans 20-21H, McGregory Buttes, t4/12; cum 331K 8/19; and yes, there was a jump in production;
  • 34438, 619, Enerplus, Muscovy 148-93-20A-29H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t4/19; cum 143K 8/19;
  • 34439, 627, Enerplus, Daffy 148-93-20A-29H, 43 stages; 10.5 million lbs sand, McGregory Buttes, t4/19; cum 149K 8/19;
  • 34440, 1,084, Enerplus, Mallard 148-93-20B-29H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t4/19; cum 126K 8/19;34437, 927, Enerplus, Canvasback 148-93-20B-29H, McGregory Buttes, t4/19; cum 136K 8/19
  • 34436, conf, Enerplus, Dewey 148-93-20B_29H-TF,
  • 34435, conf, Enerplus, Scrooge 148-92-20B_29H-TF,
  • 34434, loc, Enerplus, Pintail 148-93-20A-29H, McGregory Buttes, 
  • 34433, loc, Enerplus, Scaup 148-93-20A-29H-TF, McGregory Buttes,
  • 34432, loc, Enerplus, Widgeon 148-93-20A-29H, McGregory Buttes,
See this post for production profiles for selected wells and graphics.

Early production:

34435:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2019214294204
7-201966224204
6-2019140968688
5-20192261915742
4-2019129507950

34436

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-201974909250
7-2019145709250
6-2019121477486
5-20192330916222
4-201961783793

34437:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20192811817719
7-20192790917719
6-20191664010256
5-20193985827740
4-20192271613946

34438:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2019178456982
7-2019109986982
6-20192691216587
5-20193650925409
4-20195029730878

34439:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20191697818019
7-20192838218019
6-20192867417673
5-20194583631901
4-20192854417524

 34440:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20193271621571
7-20193397821571
6-2019112016903
5-20192755119175
4-20192048412576

Off The Net

Typographical and factual errors will be sorted out later.

Comments will be posted later.

I'm off to see Sophia for the day.

*********************************
Taxes -- Nothing New Under The Sun

In order: first Caligula, then Claudius, then Nero. 

Claudius: Roman emperor from AD 41 to 54. During this period the "twelve disciples" were quite active. An apostle, but not one of the "twelve disciples," Paul probably converted to Christianity somewhere between 30 AD (CE) and 36 AD (CE). Herod Antipas (called "King Herod" in the New Testament; was never a "king") died around 39 AD (CE). His father was Herod the Great who reigned during the time Christ walked on earth. 

From wiki, :
The port at Ostia was part of Claudius' solution to the constant grain shortages that occurred in winter, after the Roman shipping season.
The other part of his solution was to insure the ships of grain merchants who were willing to risk travelling to Egypt in the off-season.
He also granted their sailors special privileges, including citizenship and exemption from the Lex Papia Poppaea, a law that regulated marriage.
In addition, he repealed the taxes that Caligula had instituted on food, and further reduced taxes on communities suffering drought or famine
**************************************** 


The Ideal Bakken Well -- More Common Than Unicorns -- September 29, 2019

I define the ideal well as one that pays for itself in six months and then generates free cash flow for the next 35 years.

Even better than the ideal well is the ideal Bakken well: this is a well that pays for itself in six months; generates free cash flow for the next 35 years; and, on top of all that, shows repeated jumps in production.

Example:
  • 22371, 3,668, QEP/Helis, Hazel 13-34/27H, Grail, t5/13; cum 629K 8/19;
Production profile, selected:
BAKKEN3-20193112137121048312511063975311060
BAKKEN2-20192810756109317540409402667114048
BAKKEN1-20193117713178101009544978381346584
BAKKEN12-20183120779205971159346896398946736
BAKKEN11-2018301543115396872526617216404785
BAKKEN10-20183117613176881063932697278924614
BAKKEN9-20183018851186691373329515244744862
BAKKEN8-20183121462215661376132978277904981
BAKKEN7-20183127368275643085440865350415621
BAKKEN6-2018892738709234231266196082809
BAKKEN5-2018001130000
BAKKEN4-2018231796181480135302595629
BAKKEN3-2018312290238295445423366747
BAKKEN2-2018252009189083936952835536

Back in 2013 when this well was drilled and first began production, it topped out at 27,119 bbls in one 31-day period (8/13) -- and that figure was beat in 7/18 when it produced 27,368 bbls oin one 31-day period:
BAKKEN12-201320106411052214921725616201945
BAKKEN11-20133016477164462328293152921996
BAKKEN10-2013311969719498348228731262082498
BAKKEN9-2013251221712557211018177157482283
BAKKEN8-2013312711927367294845446402944916
BAKKEN7-20133115559149512706443383239711733
BAKKEN6-2013301552215754190941733417330
BAKKEN5-2013524041236292531889688960

The QEP State Wells In Spotted Horn Have Been Updated -- September 29, 2019

The QEP State wells in Spotted Horn have been updated.

Has QEP lost its touch? Or just managing its assets? These wells are good but not great, certainly not like the "Helis Grail" wells.

The CLR Sorenson Wells In Alkali Creek

The wells:
  • 35347, conf, CLR, Sorenson 10-16H1, Alkali Creek;
  • 35348, conf, CLR, Sorenson 11-16H, Alkali Creek;

  • 29669, 962, CLR, Sorenson 6-16H2, 2560-acre spacing; second bench Three Forks; 15 stages; 2.9 million lbs, sand, ceramic; Alkali Creek, t8/15; cum 166K 8/19; and, yes, when it came back on line, a bit of a production jump;
Production profiles of following wells are similar to the ones reporting below, "early production numbers."
  • 30650, conf, CLR, Sorenson 3-16H, Alkali Creek, producing;
  • 30649, conf, CLR, Sorenson 4-16H1, Alkali Creek; producing;
  • 30648, conf, CLR, Sorenson 5-16H, Alkali Creek, producing;
  • 30647, conf, CLR, Sorenson 7-16H2, Alkali Creek, producing;
  • 30646, conf, CLR, Sorenson 8-16H, Alkali Creek, producing;
30645, conf, CLR, Sorenson 9-16H1, Alkali Creek; producing;

*********************************
Early Production Numbers

35348, conf, CLR, Sorenson 11-16H, Alkali Creek:


DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-201957619759
7-2019652330
6-20192138222943
5-20193377749039
4-2019679810348

35347, conf, CLR, Sorenson 10-16H1, Alkali Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20192271935272
7-2019220428984
6-20192442322794
5-20193978054558
4-20191247714551

The graphics:






If You Can't Trust Your Friends .... -- September 29, 2019

Updates

Later, 2:29 p.m. CT: it's reported that the former minister of energy, Alfalfa, has now been removed as chairman of "a mining company." His fall from grace continues.

Original Post 

Something tells me there is more to this story.

Initial Production For Confidential Wells Reporting This Week -- September 29, 2019

The definition of an ideal: a well that pays for itself in six months and then goes on to provide a revenue stream for the next 35 years.

34968, conf, CLR, Rader 10-24H, Avoca:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20193014933814
7-20193404238059

34908, conf, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-8H, Elk:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2019240190
7-20192203020690
6-20192262514394
5-20191956814848
4-20191967213048

35348, conf, CLR, Sorenson 11-16H,Alkali Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-201957619759
7-2019652330
6-20192138222943
5-20193377749039
4-2019679810348

35347, conf, CLR, Sorenson 10-16H1, Alkali Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20192271935272
7-2019220428984
6-20192442322794
5-20193978054558
4-20191247714551

34759, conf, Whiting, Berger 24-20-1H, Tyrone:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2019264237852
6-2019274255413
5-20192566416360
4-20192544818266

35315, conf, CLR, Putnam 11-25HSL, East Fork:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2019141367496
7-2019281073502
4-20198260

35314, conf, CLR, Putnam 10-25H1, East Fork:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20196418113
7-20192894415987
6-2019182588290
4-20197020

35313, conf, CLR, Putnam 9-25H, East Fork:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-201979994054
7-2019158348089
6-20191969210591
5-20197438992
4-20192610

34762, conf, Whiting, Berger 21-15 -1TFH, Tyrone:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2019130933689
6-2019136953025
5-2019143657591
4-201920131784

34761, conf, Whiting, Berger 24-10-1TFH, Tyrone:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2019177205108
6-2019199604066
5-20191784411202
4-2019140718793

34440, conf, Enerplus, Mallard 148-93-20B-29H-TF, McGregory Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20193271621571
7-20193397821571
6-2019112016903
5-20192755119175
4-20192048412576

34439, conf, Enerplus, Daffy 148-93-20A-29H, McGregory Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20191697818019
7-20192838218019
6-20192867417673
5-20194583631901
4-20192854417524

34438, conf, Enerplus, Muscovy 148-93-20A-29H-TF, McGregory Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2019178456982
7-2019109986982
6-20192691216587
5-20193650925409
4-20195029730878

34437, conf, Enerplus, Canvasback 148-93-20B-29H, McGregory Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20192811817719
7-20192790917719
6-20191664010256
5-20193985827740
4-20192271613946

35628, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3B-10-2H, Little Knife:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20191288710239
7-20191633114971
6-201988407962

35312, conf, CLR, Putnam 8-25H1, East Fork:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20191020
6-20192565112347
5-2019107365215
4-20193110
3-20191290

34825, conf, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-13H, Elk:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2019223020
7-20192124420115
6-20192508516534
5-20191895113052
4-20192645116507
3-20191186228