Friday, August 9, 2019

Long Creek Oil Field

Background from NGI (paywall):
Oklahoma City-based Continental Resources Inc. has announced new details for its Long Creek Bakken Unit development project, which includes a production start date in the third quarter of 2020.
Background from The Williston Herald (archived):
Continental will continue to capitalize on its favorable margins in the Bakken with a new, high-impact oil project in Williams County, Stark added.
The 10-square-mile Long Creek Bakken Unit is in Williams County. Lessons learned in the company’s Springboard project in Oklahoma, where larger pads are allowing cost reductions of 10 to 15 percent, will be applied to the Bakken project.
Continental will operate two rigs in the Long Creek unit, adding 56 new wells to the existing five parent wells. That new production is expected to begin in the third quarter of 2020, and peak in the second half of 2021.
Long Creek is ultimately expected to add up to 20,000 net barrels of oil per day to production, which will be gathered and distributed by pipelines to centralized facilities.


From the NDIC hearing dockets, February 22, 2019 (link here):
  • 27356, CLR, unitizing the Long Creek-Bakken; Williams, McKenzie
  • 27357, CLR, unitizing the Long Creek-Bakken; Williams, McKenzie

From the August 8, 2019, daily activity report --

Williams County
Long Creek Unit
  • Ralph wells run to the south
  • Reckitt wells run to the north
  • the Foster Federal well is likely to be a unit line well 
  • #20929, Foster 1-28H is to the southwest of section 22-153-99 and runs north to south
SWSW 22-153-99
1834' FSL and 2382' FWL
map here
  • LCU Foster Federal 12-28HSL1,
  • LCU Ralph Federal 2-27H,
  • LCU Ralph Federal 3-27H1,
  • LCU Ralph Federal 4-27H,
  • LCU Ralph Federal 5-27H1,
  • LCU Reckitt Federal 2-22H,
  • LCU Reckitt Federal 3-22H1,
  • LCU Reckitt Federal 4-22H,
NESW 22-153-99 
1834' FSL and 2382' FWL
map here
  • LCU Ralph Federal 6-27H, 
  • LCU Ralph Federal 7-2H1,
  • LCU Ralph Federal 8-28H, 
  • LCU Ralph Federal 9-27H1,
  • LCU Reckitt Federal 5-22H1,
  • LCU Reckitt Federal 6-22H,
  • LCU Reckitt Federal 7-22H1,
  • LCU Reckitt Federal 8-22H,
The graphics:





"Long Creek Unit"?

Long Creek was originally followed here; it will now be followed here.

I haven't paid much attention to Long Creek oil field. It's a relatively small field, southeast of Williston. It was probably 15 sections (5x3) before the boom began but then grew a little, accounting for the irregularity of an otherwise a perfect rectangle. It is now 17 sections.

But this is what is most important about Long Creek: it is snuggled in between some of the best fields in the Bakken: a) Banks is one of the best fields in the Bakken; b) the Truax has been a good field; c) it is directly south of the very nice Stockyard Creek field; and, d) it appears that Crazy Man Creek is getting better and better as more wells are drilled.

Long Creek was active to the north but not much to the south.

But it looks like CLR is about to change all that: eight wells to the north, and eight wells to the south.

The two wells in section 22 -153-99:
  • 30900, 640, CLR, Reckitt Federal 1-22H, Long Creek, t9/15; cum 231K 6/19;
  • 20976, 583, CLR, Ralph 1-22H, Long Creek, t9/12; cum 256K 6/19;
******************************************************

Permits

2019

2018
34998, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
34997, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
34996, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...

34995, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
34994, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
34993, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
34543, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
34542, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
34541, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
34539, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
34538, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...

2017
None.

2016
None.

2015 (list is complete)
30900, 640, CLR, Reckitt Federal 1-22H, 25 stages, 2.9 million lbs, spud May 8, 2015; TD May 23, 2015, t9/15; cum 231K 6/19;

2014 (list is complete)
28594, 1,676, Zavanna, Simmental 2-11 4TFH, 50 stages, 5.8 million lbs, t5/15; cum 395K 6/19;
28593, 564, Zavanna, Simmental 2-11 3H, 50 stages, 5.6 million lbs, t5/15; cum 342K 6/19;
28592, 2,024, Zavanna, Simmental 2-11 2TFH, t5/15; cum 299K 6/19;
28591, 726, Zavanna, Simmental 2-11 1H, t6/15; cum 363K 6/19;
28886, 2,342, Zavanna, Gust 2-11 2H, t5/15; cum 389K 6/19;
28885, 1,360, Zavanna, Gust 2-11 3TFH, t4/16; cum 95K 6/19;

2013 (list is complete)
26771, 1,060, CLR, Winston 7-12H, t7/14; cum 340K 6/19;
26770, 717, CLR, Winston 6-12H1, t7/14; cum 274K 6/19;
26687, 1,210, Zavanna, Angus 3-10 7H, t4/15; cum 287K 6/19;
26685, 1,543, Zavanna, Angus 3-10 5H, t3/15; cum 333K 6/19;
26684, 567, Zavanna, Angus 3-10 3TFH, t9/15; cum 279K 6/19;
26682, 2,770, Zavanna, Angus 3-10 1H, t9/15; cum 320K 6/19;
26677, 695, Zavanna, Nelson 3-10 2TFH, t12/15 cum 281K 6/19;
26676, 630, Zavanna, Nelson 3-10 3TFH, t12/15; cum 208K 6/19;

2012
23189, 409, CLR, Winston 3-12H, t11/12; cum 218K 6/19;
23188, 457, CLR,Winston 2-12H, t11/12; cum 268K 6/19;

Notes From All Over, Part 4; Why Didn't They Just Turn On The Wind Turbines? -- August 9, 2019

Updates

Later, 3:37 pm. CT: Batteries only last a few hours at most when hooked to the grid during a massive power failure, but diesel generators run "forever." This is what countries, like the US, living and operating in the 21st century do:



Why doesn't Great Britain simply have a "back-up" diesel generator to turn the wind turbines when the wind is not blowing. In fact, just give every Brit a free diesel generator for their own home/apartment. "Diesel for all." They already have "Medicare for all"; they call it the NHS.

Original Post

From twitter an hour ago:

Link here to current story.

If you don't like the paywall, here's another link.
London is suffering a mass power cut which has resulted in chaos for commuters in the midst of rush hour.
In case you missed it, key words: London suffering mass power cut chaos rush hour.

Unless I missed it, no explanation. Some are blaming it on Boris. Others on Brexit. No one has yet blamed Trump as far as I can tell but the day is still early here in the US.

A news network in Oregon says the outage is due to a "suspected" grid failure.

There was a reference made to a major storm; one might be able to see it at "global winds." Or not.

*****************************************
Stumblin' In

C. C. Catch brought me here, as they say over at YouTube. Chris Norman has done this duet with others, but it certainly seems Suzi Quatro was the best match with Norman. C. C. Catch was just too weak/soft to compete with Norman's raspy, Rod-Stewart voice:

Stumblin' In, Chris Norman and Suzi Quatro

Second Consecutive Day With No New Permits? -- August 9, 2019

Rigs don't matter (don't that out of context): production keeps increasing; number of rigs keep declining -- oilprice. US oil production at 12 million bopd, a million more bbls/day than one year ago, in round numbers, perhaps some embellishment. Easy enough to fact checked. If interested. I'm not.




Active rigs:

$54.718/9/201908/09/201808/09/201708/09/201608/09/2015
Active Rigs6164573373

For newbies: for Baker Hughes to count a rig as "active," the bit has to be actually turning. They drill wells so fast in the Bakken that by the time Baker Hughes gets the data, the well has been drilled to depth. 

No new permits posted.

Eight producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 34899, 2,110, MRO, Weidman USA 11-15TFH, Reunion Bay, t6/19; cum 4K in 6 days;
  • 34896, 2,828, MRO, Linton USA 31-16TFH, Reunion Bay, t6/19; cum 32K in 22 days;
  • 34898, 5,021, MRO, White Owl USA 41-16H, Reunion Bay, t6/19; cum 25K in 10 days;
  • 34897, 4,704, MRO, Hurkes USA 41-16TFH, Reunion Bay, t6/19; cum 42K in 19 days;
  • 35504, n/d, CLR, Weisz 6-11H, Pleasant Valley, t--; cum --;
  • 34173, 911, CLR, Ravin 51H2, Dimmick Lake, t7/19; cum --;
  • 35503, n/d, CLR, Weisz 5-11H1,Pleasant Valley, t--; cum --;
  • 35322, 4,272, MRO, Eunice USA 11-16TFH, Reunion Bay, t5/19; cum 59K in 27 days;

Jagged Peak, 2Q19

Jagged Peak, 2Q19, at Seeking Alpha.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, job, travel, financial, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

From the link, Jagged Peak:

Summary 
  • Jagged Peak reported above range volumes, missed on price
  • guidance was reaffirmed
  • more importantly, they are making rapid efficiency gains
  • upside play results are encouraging
  • the stock is trading at depressed multiples ahead of a strong end of year ramp in volumes with good visibility on 2020 momentum
I don't know if I've posted this before, but my two cents worth on investing in the oil sector: to be continued ...

Bakken Economy; Long X Bridge Replacement -- August 9, 2019

XWA: to feature restaurant, bar, and gift shop. What XWA really needs is a separate check-in and lounge for oil workers. Period. Dot.

Airport boardings: up nearly 1,800 in July.

Coolest Bakken story of the day: construction begins on Long X Bridge. Bridge replacement. Wow.
  • almost $40 million
  • will include a wildlife crossing on the southside of the pre-cast bridge
  • link here
  • preserved
  • DOT projects here; at that site, scroll to near the bottom, to "Public Involvement Materials" and then click on:
Current Long X Bridge:


For the archives, what it looks like now:


Likely:

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- August 8, 2019

Plastic straws? LOL.

Earlier we posted the "Michael Moore woke" story.

From The WSJ: if you want renewable energy, get ready to dig.
  • one wind turbine -- one --
    • 900 tons of steel
    • 2,500 tons of concrete
    • 45 tons of plastic
  • the amount of CO2 emitted building/installing a wind turbine -- that wind turbine will never save that much CO2 over its expected 7-year lifetime
From the op-ed:
“Renewable energy” is a misnomer. Wind and solar machines and batteries are built from nonrenewable materials. And they wear out. Old equipment must be decommissioned, generating millions of tons of waste. The International Renewable Energy Agency calculates that solar goals for 2050 consistent with the Paris Accords will result in old-panel disposal constituting more than double the tonnage of all today’s global plastic waste. Consider some other sobering numbers:
A single electric-car battery weighs about 1,000 pounds. Fabricating one requires digging up, moving and processing more than 500,000 pounds of raw materials somewhere on the planet. The alternative? Use gasoline and extract one-tenth as much total tonnage to deliver the same number of vehicle-miles over the battery’s seven-year life.
When electricity comes from wind or solar machines, every unit of energy produced, or mile traveled, requires far more materials and land than fossil fuels. That physical reality is literally visible: A wind or solar farm stretching to the horizon can be replaced by a handful of gas-fired turbines, each no bigger than a tractor-trailer.
Building one wind turbine requires 900 tons of steel, 2,500 tons of concrete and 45 tons of nonrecyclable plastic. Solar power requires even more cement, steel and glass—not to mention other metals. Global silver and indium mining will jump 250% and 1,200% respectively over the next couple of decades to provide the materials necessary to build the number of solar panels, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
World demand for rare-earth elements—which aren’t rare but are rarely mined in America—will rise 300% to 1,000% by 2050 to meet the Paris green goals. If electric vehicles replace conventional cars, demand for cobalt and lithium, will rise more than 20-fold. That doesn’t count batteries to back up wind and solar grids.
So much more at the link.

My hunch: Michael Moore  has a copy of this article in his scrapbook.

There is a reason that wind energy is collapsing in Germany.

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- August 9, 2019

Permian: not on its way out -- Rigzone. Even Nick Cunningham over at oilprice says the Permian will grow to 8 million bopd. Saudi Arabia maximum sustained, maybe 11 million bopd. Permian on its way out? Rystad said quite the opposite. Data points:
typical Permian well currently produces approximately 830 bopd during its second month of production -- an all-time high

EIA dashboards:

Ethanol: Brazil considers dropping barriers to US ethanol. Wow, it's great to have a businessman in the White House, along with that guy that always falls asleep at meetings over at "Commerce."

Aramco cuts prices for oil headed to Asia. Will raise prices for northwest Europe. Oh, well. Link here.

Piped-out?

 

News From All Over, Part 1 -- August 9, 2019

News blackout: for me. News black out for me. Until the dust settles, until some of the crazy talk is quieted, I am avoiding all news to extent possible and still keep the blog up to the high standards readers have come to expect. LOL. Part of that sentence is accurate.

Because of the news blackout, I'm missing a lot of stories about things going on in American business -- some of the things I've heard from various sources, including my wife:
  • Walgreen's will close 200 stores; someone said this was due to merger with Rite Aid but that was several years ago
  • Pizza Hut: converting 500 dine-in stores to take-out only
  • Uber losing money; Lyft may be the better of the two
  • $15/hour hurting NYC retail
  • Calloway Golf will build  800,000-ft distribution center in DFW area (Alliance, TX); link here;
  • Alliance, TX; a fast-growing hub of logistics and transportation infrastructure due to its proximity to the Fort Worth Alliance Airport and the BNSF Railway Intermodal Facility; see maps below;
  • CHS will build a $100 millioin soybean-processing plant in Fairmont, MN; link here;
***********************************
DFW

Unofficially, the population of the DFW metroplex is estimated at 7.5 million.

Officially, the population of the DFW metroplex is expected to grow to 50 million by 2050.

Currently the economic activity is north of Dallas, particularly along TX-75 on the way to the big casinos on the Oklahoma state line. The cities experiencing huge growth north of Dallas: Plano, Frisco, McKinney.

In 2050, the DFW population of 50 million will be centered north of Ft Worth, specifically the Roanoke, TX, area. I already see it happening. 










Note location of the Texas Motor Speedway just across from Buc-ees at the intersection of I-35W and TX-114.

Michael Moore And Renewable Energy -- August 9, 2019

This deserves a stand-alone post -- from WeAreIowa -- the headline is "weak" - here's the headline -- "new Michael Moore-backed doc tackles alternative energy."

Link here. This is what was really said:
... when he started pulling on the thread, he and Moore said they were shocked to find how inextricably entangled alternative energy is with coal and natural gas, since they say everything from wind turbines to electric car charging stations are tethered to the grid, and even how the Koch brothers are tied to solar panel production through their glass production business.

“It turned out the wakeup call was about our own side,” Gibbs said in a phone interview. “It was kind of crushing to discover that the things I believed in weren’t real, first of all, and then to discover not only are the solar panels and wind turbines not going to save us … but (also) that there is this whole dark side of the corporate money … It dawned on me that these technologies were just another profit center.”

Both know the film is going to be a “tough pill to swallow.” It was a difficult eye-opener for them as well.

“We all want to feel good about something like the electric car, but in the back of your head somewhere you’ve thought, ‘Yeah but where is the electricity coming from? And it’s like, ‘I don’t want to think about that, I’m glad we have electric cars,'” Moore said. “I’ve passed by the windmill farms, and oh it’s so beautiful to see them going, and don’t tell me that we’ve gone too far now and it isn’t going to save us … Well, my feeling is just hit me with everything. I’m like let’s just deal with it now, all at once.”
And the elites all know it. 

A huge "thank you" to the reader who spotted this and sent it my way. I would have definitely missed it. 

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; Qatar Making America Great -- August 9, 2019

Oops -- Halcon did it again: files for second bankruptcy in three years. Again, pre-packaged. Previously: May, 2016. Expects to emerge from bankruptcy within 60 days.

OXY completes Anadarko acquisition. No link; story everywhere.

Aramco: awards $18 billion in deals for oilfield work. Purpose:
  • to boost productive capacity in its Marjan and Berri offshore fiields by 550,000 bopd; 2.5 bilion standard cubic feet/day of natural gas
  • will help Saudi Arabia to continues Maximum Sustained Capacity at around 12 million bopd
Saudi: discussing options to halt oil slide.

Eagle Ford pipe: EVX Midstream Partners LLC to expand saltwater disposal gathering pipelines.

Permian: Qatar investing more than a half-billion dollars into Permian midstream --  data points:
  • Oryx Midstream Services
  • Qatar has acquired a "significant" stake in the company
  • the Qatar partnership is the latest in a series of investments undertaken by Qatar across the US
  • Qatar: plans to invest $45 billion in the coming years
***********************************
Back to the Bakken 

Two wells coming off confidential list today -- Friday, August 9, 2019: 12 for the month; 61 for the quarter;
  • 35839, SI/NC, Sinclair, Sinclair State 8-36H, Robinson Lake, no production data,
  • 34177, n/d, CLR, Ravin 9-1H,  Dimmick Lake, t--; cum --;
Active rigs:

$53.308/9/201908/09/201808/09/201708/09/201608/09/2015
Active Rigs6264573373

RBN Energy: how will Rockies pipeline development affect the Niobrara? Part 3.
The Niobrara production area in the Rockies is a complicated place to determine crude oil supply and demand balances. It’s at the crossroads of a number of supply areas, with volumes coming in from Canada and the Bakken, as well as locally from the Powder River and Denver-Julesburg basins. And in terms of destinations, there are well-established local markets, or you can send the molecules to Salt Lake City, or southeast to the Cushing, OK, hub and beyond. The Niobrara is one of the few growth areas we look at where there is substantial pipeline capacity for inflows and outflows, with the option to service multiple markets. Now, there are a couple of new pipeline projects ramping up in the Rockies, and given the region’s interconnectivity, it’s a good bet that the status quo in the Niobrara is in for some big changes. Today, we recap the new pipeline projects and then dive into what it could mean for the midstream balance in the Powder River and D-J.