Thursday, August 8, 2019

ETP Plans VLCC-Capable Crude Export Terminal Near Nederland, TX -- August 8, 2019

Earlier we posted ETP's 2Q19 earnings. Now this: Energy Transfer plans VLCC-capable crude export terminal near Nederland.

For newbies (including myself on this one): Nederland is up-coast from Houston, right on the water, abutting Port Arthur.

If you can imagine a very, very flat triangle with Houston at the apex, and Nederland at the northeast corner, Corpus Christi would be several hundred miles to the southwest, at the third corner.

To wit (only because I'm getting so much grief): 


From the linked article:
  • developer sees advantage in supply diversity from Canada, Bakken, Permian 
  • joins seven other deepwater ports competing to move next wave of US exports 
  • five VLCC-capable projects have filed applications for federal permits
  • Other data points:
    • the project would connect to the company's 28-million-bbl Nederland, TX, terminal
    • Nederland: claims to have the largest above-ground storage in the country
    • pipelines from Canada, Cushing, West Texas
    • once approved, it would take at least 2 1/2 years to complete
  • ETP owns the 570,000 bopd DAPL that moves about 40% of Bakken production
    • ETP plans to expand that capacity to 1.1 million b/d by late 2020 (that would be next  year)
  • five of seven planned projects have filed federal applications:
    • Trafigura's Texas Gulf Terminal and Phillip 66's Bluewater Texas Terminal off Corpus Christi
    • Enterprise's Sea Port Oil Terminal off Houston
    • Enbridge's Texas COLT and Sentinal Midstream's Texas GulfLink off Freeport (Freeport is due south of Houston, right on the Gulf)

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- Wow, Another Great Jobs Report -- Not Even Mentioned Above The Fold -- August 8, 2019

Exports: This is an interesting story out of Reuters: "over-piped" in the Permian. If that is accurate, and the tea leaves seem to suggest that story is accurate, it then seems the next chokepoints are storage at the terminals, overseas demand, and sea-going crude carriers. See this post.

Follow US crude oil and petroleum exports at this EIA site. Weekly crude oil export numbers here.

Jobless data released this morning, link here:
  • prior: 215K
  • prior revised: 217K
  • consensus: 215K
Rig counts, Platts:
Improved efficiencies and rising well completion rates have allowed operators to increase production outlooks in second quarter guidance even as total rig counts have ebbed. New-well oil production per rig in the major basins is forecast at 715 b/d in August, up 10 b/d from 705 b/d in July, according to US Energy Information Administration data.
The greatest efficiency gains are forecast for wells in the Bakken, which is slated to edge up 15 b/d to 1,424 b/d, and in the Permian, which is expected 12 b/d higher at 684 b/d in August. Comment: Platts has active rig count at 57 for the Williston Basin.
EIA dashboards (these are still the "JULY" dashboards; August dashboards have not yet been posted):


Active Rigs At 62 In North Dakota -- August 8, 2019

Active rigs: it will be interesting to see the Baker Hughes rig count for North Dakota this week. Last week, Baker Hughes had it at 47 or thereabouts. Today, the NDIC has the active rig count in North Dakota at 62.

Active rigs:

$52.768/8/201908/08/201808/08/201708/08/201608/08/2015
Active Rigs6265563473

No new permits today.

Nothing today.

ETP (DAPL) Transcript -- 2Q19

Link here.

On DAPL:
If you look at the opportunities and the need to provide capacity up there, nobody compares to DAPL. And the beautiful thing about DAPL is that all we have to do is add pumps to move materially more volumes. We've already secured volumes to move forward on an optimization project. However, as everybody knows we're in the middle of an open season, we're very optimistic how that open season will go. And we will add pumps and other needed facilities to meet the contractual obligations that we'll have at the at the end of the open season, but couldn't be better timing.
Financial:
Our adjusted EBITDA hit another record for the second quarter of 2019, coming in at $2.82 billion. This was up 25% compared to the second quarter of last year. DCF attributable to the partners of ET as adjusted also increased almost 25%. We continue to see very strong performances in all of our major businesses and very high utilization across all of our assets.

The NGL and refined product segments delivered another record quarter as a result of the ramp up of ME2 and record frack volumes that were driven by Frac VI coming online earlier than planned and filling up almost immediately. Pricing differentials between markets have also continued to remain strong for much of 2019, driving outperformance in our optimization businesses.

Distribution coverage for the quarter was two times which resulted in excess cash flow after distributions of $800 million for the quarter. In addition, since the end of the quarter, we successfully brought on Arrowhead III processing plant online ahead of schedule. And the second phase of our Red Bluff Express pipeline is now operationally complete. We're also pleased to say that at the end of July, we loaded our first barge at Nederland with natural gasoline.

As a result of this strong performance and the completion of several key growth initiatives. For 2019, we are revising our adjusted EBITDA guidance higher. We are all lowering our full year CapEx guidance. We expect our 2019 adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $10.8 billion to $11 billion, which is up $200 million from our previous guidance range.

Much more at the link.

Nice Jump In Production In A Siverston Field XTO Well -- August 8, 2019

This page will not be updated.


The well:
  • 27177, 1,943, XTO, Cherry Creek State 44X-36C, Siverston, t6/14; cum 217K 6/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20192971546665334324429162222626
BAKKEN5-2019311082611326348037630774929683
BAKKEN4-2019524891421601085099587522
BAKKEN3-201910033000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-201883196922331300117994
BAKKEN8-20181914151039119848464346377
BAKKEN7-20183011261222839500648710
BAKKEN6-201830159619181147753973520
BAKKEN5-201831173115351263782376420

At a later date, need to check on #27178; #17456.

Random Look At Kermit Wells And Jump In Production -- August 8, 2019

Time to take another look at these wells; previously posted, now updated with new material, previously posted;
These Rink wells have all come off-line as of last month (2/19):

  • 34055, 355, BR, Rink 7-1-5UTFH, Pershing, t8/18; cum 89K 6/19;
  • 34056, 320, BR, Kermit 7-8-32 UTFH, Pershing, t8/18; cum 109K 6/19;
  • 34058, 541, BR, Kermit 8-8-32MBH, Pershing, t8/18; cum 133K 6/19;
  • 34059, 379, BR, Rinkurtis 8-1-5UTFH-ULW, t8/18; cum 67K 6/19;
Recently fracked, to the east:
  • 30911, 296, BR, Saddle Butte 24-9 TFH, 48 stages; 7.6 million lbs; North Fork, t2/19; cum 102K 6/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2019141140911087839018378183570
BAKKEN2-2019439639685728030803

The Rink / Kermit wells are tracked here
*******************************
New Production Data 

16792, 689, BR, Kermit 1-32H, Pershing, t5/08; cum 239K 6/19, recent production data;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20193011764121803381166724016558
BAKKEN5-20193011194109254679159188115763
BAKKEN4-2019301032210474624215166339411698
BAKKEN3-2019306783691731681031430407200
BAKKEN2-201923441942381630502049630
BAKKEN1-201929385739631487198819160
BAKKEN12-201829584159832376251524430


29867, 3,126, BR, Kirkland 14-21TFH ULW, Pershing, t10/15; cum 536K 6/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20193017228173319023304391246317902
BAKKEN5-201931221652202111560379902410613807
BAKKEN4-20193022438225161274439734357333927
BAKKEN3-20193123614239591490141265397301458
BAKKEN2-2019281872518620984822838227680
BAKKEN1-20193117742174841140225314211554082
BAKKEN12-20183116062161641098922063195582428
BAKKEN11-2018301676516605121112300422307611
BAKKEN10-20183117502175781467630597305090
BAKKEN9-20181112967129851370627021269870
BAKKEN8-2018259301880411629176651752861
BAKKEN7-201867546577527947740
BAKKEN6-2018004010000
BAKKEN5-20183063816406267717369172830
BAKKEN4-20183086558747281516915168300
BAKKEN3-2018311146511151353718284181960
BAKKEN2-20188378036111112410140780
BAKKEN1-2018306979052668700



Random Update Of CLR Wells Coming Back On Line After Hereford Federal Wells Fracked -- August 8, 2019

This page will not be updated.

So, let's look at some production data for "neighboring" wells.

First the history:
May 23, 2019Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 33027, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H2, Elm Tree, 4/19 producing small amount;
  • 33026, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H, Elm Tree, 4/19 producing small amount;
  • 33025, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H1, Elm Tree, 4/19 producing small amount;
    • neighboring wells
      • to the east, running same direction
        • 18138, Simmental, nice jump in production; see below;
        • 19503, Simmental, remains off line as of 3/19; huge jump in production; see below
      • to the west, running same direction, south to north
        • 19397, Bueligo, remains off line as of 3/19; just coming back on line 6/19;
      • to the north, running same direction, south to north
        • 20804, Angus, remains off line as of 3/19; back on line as of 6/19;
        • 24473, Angus, back on line for 13 days; too early to say if any production jump; 3/19; nice production but no significant jump, 6/19;
        • 20805, Angus, back on line for 11 days; too early to say if any production jump; 3/19; nice production but no significant jump, 6/19;
 Now,  recent production data for some of those "neighboring" wells:

20804:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-201927353638403573555321153149
BAKKEN5-20199131580664072962628
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20191018722000
BAKKEN12-201825162516875484847443775
BAKKEN11-2018301952205466643603428538
BAKKEN10-2018312105216269559565377160

18138:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20192745014768290666412855837
BAKKEN5-20193184678683472213084117211305
BAKKEN4-20193091658974821112871195710299
BAKKEN3-201915464642918249621525213410
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-2019002590000
BAKKEN12-201831138213814133050234093
BAKKEN11-2018301394128537429212199107
BAKKEN10-201831144814334253126241893

19503:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2019302128921587150543262371331505
BAKKEN5-2019159243849068331559143814990
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-2019002470000
BAKKEN12-201825179419038653017261875
BAKKEN11-2018302386211014313319283590
BAKKEN10-20181692712267431708147945

Enerplus Reports Great One-Day Production On An Antelope-Sanish Well, 320-Acre Spacing -- August 8, 2019

Great production for being on line one day a month?  This page won't be updated. We noted this two months ago; the pattern continues.

The well:
  • 19693, in the east half, 722, Enerplus, Danks 17-44H, Antelope, Sanish pool, t7/11; cum 250K 6/19; only 1,000 bbls/month; off line as of 1/19; still inactive, 3/19; active as of 4/19 but only producing one day/month? see this note.
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH6-20191514145614126771107499
SANISH5-20191523349606402785107615
SANISH4-20191489344666165734007185
SANISH3-20190001000
SANISH2-20190000000
SANISH1-2019132461404
SANISH12-201819760101844111400982
SANISH11-20183011791489577176901560
SANISH10-2018311256986389188401670
SANISH9-2018301272945411190801726
SANISH8-20183112781598385191701734

Random Note: A Slawson Wolverine Federal Well Coming Back On Line -- August 8, 2019

This page won't be updated. These wells are tracked elsewhere. 

The well:
May 17, 2019: this well is back off line again, as of 11/18, and it's a great well; returns to production, 6/19;

  • 23108, 767, Slawson Exploration, Wolverine Federal 5-31-30H, Elm Tree, t9/13; cum 469K 6/19; 
Back on line:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-201911118097532611720778
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-2018618702776818164801308
BAKKEN10-2018311047210434638995568636828
BAKKEN9-20183093869461699413228114980
BAKKEN8-20183110190954794061272692081670

Random Look At A Monster Well With Interesting Production Profile -- August 8, 2019

This page won't be updated. I'm posting it only to show newbies how "crazy" production profiles of some wells can be. 

A most interesting production profile for this well:
May 14, 2019, #20212. See this post.
October 3, 2016: a great well taken off line in August, 2016: 20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, Oakdale, Bakken, s1/11; t9/11; AL; cum 1.672864 million bbls 6/19; 24 stages; 2.4 million lbs; middle Bakken; runs south; 4 section spacing; this is an incredible well; still 19,000 bbls in October, 2015; off-line all of 8/16; back on-line September, 2016; updated here; see this post, 3/19; something doesn't add up. Very interesting profile;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-201930746074112064738469830
BAKKEN5-2019311035810178311892298075751
BAKKEN4-20193093299560312589088352165
BAKKEN3-201930101319975580498429299159
BAKKEN2-201924599758434104563253450
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20181400000
BAKKEN11-201820664269221753725058741133
BAKKEN10-2018311215812190398713439118871133
BAKKEN9-2018301399914197683515432140361011
BAKKEN8-2018420751375123120731580443
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-2018002210000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-201720019000
BAKKEN11-2017322021100
BAKKEN10-201732380100
BAKKEN9-20171638293858232480047030
BAKKEN8-2017319112914342810829105900
BAKKEN7-20172662576352117685153261380
BAKKEN6-2017309377940633311517112840
BAKKEN5-201731102181010635712107118610
BAKKEN4-2017288004810132793328923220
BAKKEN3-201731101491013731811626113810
BAKKEN2-2017289545944628510713104940
BAKKEN1-20173110635107573501204211508297
BAKKEN12-201631106971058431511582113540
BAKKEN11-201629105391068935511311110960
BAKKEN10-201631114621148431512258120100
BAKKEN9-20161987458486137836682170
BAKKEN8-2016002370000
BAKKEN7-201630105341055835011332100351065
BAKKEN6-20163011354112794401259689453412
BAKKEN5-20163112067119914791411513656212
BAKKEN4-201627101891012852811146109730
BAKKEN3-2016227488755637883458035148
BAKKEN2-201628143421448950817102149481937
BAKKEN1-201631163871613557317603143543001
BAKKEN12-201531170071710964318828138204760
BAKKEN11-201530176621766765818894131635499
BAKKEN10-201531197531960386720802133837175
BAKKEN9-20152412950127452621332974435737
BAKKEN8-20152111763120185281219860086036
BAKKEN7-201531190161914186720053124477363
BAKKEN6-201530187651881886719709162813189
BAKKEN5-20152716685165325921600015348459
BAKKEN4-2015181187711644272106919927628
BAKKEN3-20152615235154665121817517327650
BAKKEN2-201528167161683956019081122126650
BAKKEN1-201531191961927064023301230530
BAKKEN12-20143120798206987302425123803200
BAKKEN11-201430187881865360722496203951880
BAKKEN10-201431205892070672025254250060
BAKKEN9-201430207462078472724407210033165
BAKKEN8-20143121390214557382448124079160
BAKKEN7-201431231102302282926324263240
BAKKEN6-201430231722315585725427234072020
BAKKEN5-201431215942169073723179231790
BAKKEN4-20143024166239647012642626085341
BAKKEN3-201431257842574482228446284460
BAKKEN2-201426222002227060824336243360
BAKKEN1-201431274842753990129593295930
BAKKEN12-201331221342215854523471234710
BAKKEN11-20133025063249917402666126381280
BAKKEN10-201329227982285059623808238080
BAKKEN9-20133022770226608212408823488600
BAKKEN8-201331233242340477724797233171480
BAKKEN7-20133123530235006622408023962118
BAKKEN6-201330251992520964426196206215575
BAKKEN5-201331277272776474028209282090
BAKKEN4-201330265392650364727828278280
BAKKEN3-201331253032542260825640256400
BAKKEN2-201328215242138952221714217140
BAKKEN1-201331277432773373524964238891075
BAKKEN12-201231315643166173732236322360
BAKKEN11-201230338023371195334549345490
BAKKEN10-2012313541735643112335484354840
BAKKEN9-201230360393607691037982379820
BAKKEN8-201231317193210183334770347700
BAKKEN7-201231368833698685338000380000
BAKKEN6-201230396693981390538128381280
BAKKEN5-2012314483143958100342516425160
BAKKEN4-2012304509945361104746380463800
BAKKEN3-201231438774371887544212442120
BAKKEN2-201229426674264683243010430100
BAKKEN1-2012315261652790113845573455730
BAKKEN12-2011315003849811128140488404880
BAKKEN11-201130388243898259231074310740
BAKKEN10-201131415714133978039458394580
BAKKEN9-201125290412872183523743689616847