Sunday, March 31, 2019

Sunday, March 31, 2019, T+88, Part 3 -- Nothing About The Bakken (Well, Almost Nothing)

Capitalism explained. At the sidebar at the right

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

WTI, futures: $60.35.

Look at this headline over at oilprice: as onshore drilling costs soar in the Permian and other popular shale patches, Big Oil is looking offshore for solutions. Click bait. No doubt. I saw the headline. Did not click on the story. Shale: short-cycle. Off-shore: years and years of effort. Huge CAPEX. So we will see where this goes. I'm not aware that costs are soaring in the Bakken.

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Park City, Utah



Sunday, March 31, 2019, T+88, Part 2

March Madness. So, now #3 Texas Tech takes on #2 Michigan State next week in the semi-finals. Auburn will take on Virginia. My money (if I bet, and I don't) is on this outcome : Michigan State vs Virginia in the finals, with Virginia taking the championship, though I would like my sentimental favorite Auburn to take it all.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

The market, futures:
  • CNN: Dow up 120 points -- Alaska Air Group down over 3%
  • CNBC: Dow up 118 points --  Harris-O'Rourke ticket has the best chance against Trump. 
  • Cramer: use your "mad money" to buy equities now
I spent much of the afternoon in a Japanese bookstore near Plano, TX, north of Dallas -- a most fascinating afternoon. We try to visit the bookstore at least every two weeks.

Light rail: another fail. Albuquerque, NM. From The Wall Street Journal. Advocates force businesses along historic Route 66 to suffer while they indulge their transit fantasies. And this story plays out every day across the US.

Coal: the more I read, the more I "know" coal will be the story in 2030. I won't be around to see it. 

TCM: where the boys are. The movie released, 1960. The birth control pill first approved for use in the United States in 1960.
The title song "Where the Boys Are" was sung by Connie Francis, who also co-starred in a supporting role. The film was aimed at the teen market, and it inspired many American college students to head to Fort Lauderdale for their annual spring break. Where the Boys Are was one of the first teen films to explore adolescent sexuality and the changing sexual morals and attitudes among American college youth. It won Laurel awards for Best Comedy of the Year and Best Comedy Actress (Paula Prentiss).
Where The Boys Are, Connie Francis

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Beef

In case you were wondering, of if you need something for that cocktail party later this week: Japan's "top three" wagyu brands — Matsusaka Ushi, Kobe Beef, and Ohmi (Omi) beef — all hail from the Kansai region of Japan.

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Magazine B

Annual 10-issue subscription, $140, with postage additional. Link here.

Individual copies available on Amazon for $25. "Portland" was issue number 58. Most current issue, "Hay," #72, unless you count #50, "Seoul (version 2)." Hay:
Founded in 2002 by Rolf and Mette Hay in Copenhagen, Denmark, Hay is a home and lifestyle brand offering a wide selection of essential products from home and office furniture to accessories such as mirrors, hangers, and glassware.
Firmly rooted in their design philosophy, Hay has collaborated with emerging designers and brands to expand their scope, infusing the latest technology into traditional Danish aesthetics. Hay’s design, pricing, and retail strategies have proven to be deliberate in advocating a unique Danish style suited for contemporary living.
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Gullible

When one spends any time in a Japanese bookstore, one is reminded that Algore et al is asking the rest of us to reduce our "carbon" footprint, to live without, to aspire to less while the elites are doing just the opposite.

I Go To Pieces, Peter and Gordon

Sunday, March 31, 2019, T+88, Part 1 -- Nothing About The Bakken

YES!!! Duke finally beaten.

Finally.

Lost on a free throw.

The week has hardly begun and already too much to report.

First, "The Day The Dinosaurs Died: A young paleontologist may have discovered a record of the most significant event in the history of life on Earth." From The New Yorker. I posted this story from another source earlier this week (month?). Archived.

Three great sports events today:
  • Kisner won the golf tournament; Tiger Woods went home yesterday, Saturday.
  • Hamlin won the NASCAR race. Kyle Busch would have won but ran into unexpected / unknown problems with less than 50 (?) laps left to go. 
  • March Madness: Auburn (5) moves on, beating #2, Kentucky. Duke (1) now in a close one with Michigan State. Duke is lucky to have gotten this far; should have lost either of two earlier games. If Duke pulls this one, they deserve to win the national championship. [Duke lost.]
Futures: look good. Not good. Great!!!! This is the perfect market.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Vacation: looking to spend time at Flathead Lake in June (2019).

Coal: the more I read, the more I "know" that coal will be the story in 2030. Period. Dot. No matter what anyone else says.

Back to the dinosaur story. I will have to see what's new. I thought the story was already well known. From the story:
  • 66 million years ago
  • an asteroid hits the Yucat√°n peninsula
  • the Cretaceous period ends and the Paleogene period begins
  • Los Alamos National Laboratory; Q Machine -- one of the world's most powerful computers: modeled the impact
  • energy released: a billion Hiroshima bombs
  • blobs of glass, tektites, blanketed the Western Hemisphere
  • as the earth rotated, the airborne material fell; set fire to the entire Indian subcontinent
  • fires eventually consumed about 70% of the world's forest
  • giant tsunamis
  • the damage had only begun
  • not all details known, but it is know that the soot prevented all sunlight from reaching the plane'ts surface for months
  • photosynthesis all but stopped, killing most plants
  • oxygen in the atmosphere plummeted
  • after the fires died down, Earth plunged into a period of cold, perhaps even a deep freeze
  • Earth's two essential food chains, in the sea and on land, collapse
  • 75% of all species went extinct  
  • more than 99.9999% of all living organisms on Earth died; the carbon cycle came to a halt
  • KT boundary: marks the dividing line between the Kretaceous and the Tertiary period )the Teritary has been redefined as the Paleogene)
And finally here's the mystery:
One of the central mysteries of paleontology is the so-called “three-­metre problem.” In a century and a half of assiduous searching, almost no dinosaur remains have been found in the layers three metres, or about nine feet, below the KT boundary, a depth representing many thousands of years. Consequently, numerous paleontologists have argued that the dinosaurs were on the way to extinction long before the asteroid struck, owing perhaps to the volcanic eruptions and climate change. Other scientists have countered that the three-metre problem merely reflects how hard it is to find fossils. Sooner or later, they’ve contended, a scientist will discover dinosaurs much closer to the moment of destruction.
Conclusion here.

Something Going On With The EOG Riverview Wells In Clarks Creek? -- March 31, 2019

The EOG Riverview wells in Clarks Creek have been on the conf list "forever. The wells are tracked here.

Now, two great, older Riverview wells, have come off-line which usually suggests something going on in the area. Flooding? The two wells taken off line; note -- they are nice wells, producing over 1500 bbls/month and producing since 2012:
  • 22200, 528, EOG, Riverview4-3031H, Clarks Creek, t7/12; cum 459K 2/19;
  • 22199, 1,088, EOG, Riverview 100-3031H, Clarks Creek, t6/12; cum 480K 2/19; 
Kennedy-Miles wells in Dimmick Lake off line in 1/19 and 2/19. The wells are tracked here.

EOG has canceled most of their West Clark wells in Clarks Creek. The wells are tracked here.

Initial Production For Selected Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- March 31, 2019

Six months ago it was early October, 2018.

Production data for selected wells coming off confidential list this next week. Full list is posted here. Very few wells coming off the confidential list this next week are reporting any production. In general, no initial production suggests a DUC.

34999, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Jaeger State 2-34-26H-144-97L, Cabernet,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-2019148287763
12-2018169627470
11-201891943658
10-201876803292
 
34620, conf, Enerplus Camelia 148-94-16CH, Eagle Nest,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-201915054405
1-201972516678
12-201892917159
11-2018142409267
10-20181538511890
 
33665, conf, MRO, Wilkinson USA 11-1H, Reunion Bay,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-2019241190
 
34959, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Federal Staael 2-32-5H-160-90L, Dimond,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-201985610
1-2019104242302
12-201895683659
11-2018105383442
10-20188994953

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- March 31, 2019

Six months ago it was early October, 2018

This is one of the most disappointing lists I have posted in a long time. Very few wells coming off the confidential list this next week are reporting any production. In general, no initial production suggests a DUC.


Monday April 8, 2019:
35216, conf, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5A, North Fork, no production data, 
33681, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Nelson 7-30-31-157N-99W TFH,  Lone Tree Lake, no production data,


Sunday, April 7, 2019:
30933, conf, Armstrong Operating, Pederson 33-3, Hamlet,, no production data, 

Saturday, April 6, 2019:
35217, conf, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5F, North Fork, no production data, 
34999, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Jaeger State 2-34-26H-144-97L, Cabernet, producing, 
34620, conf, Enerplus Camelia 148-94-16CH, Eagle Nest, producing, 
33665, conf, MRO, Wilkinson USA 11-1H, Reunion Bay, producing, 

Friday, April 5, 2019:
35211, conf, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5H, North Fork, no production data, 

Thursday, April 4, 2019:
35516, conf, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-5-8-12H, Siverston, no production data, 
35500, conf, RimRock Oil & Gas, MC MHA 24-10-2TFH, Moccasin Creek, no production data,
34410, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dorothy 19-18-158N-98W MBH, Rainbow, no production data, 
33667, conf, MRO, Dutton USA 21-1TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
33666, conf, MRO, Deserly USA 11-1TFH, Reunion Bay, producing, albeit not much,

Wednesday, April 3, 2019:
35499, conf, RimRock Oil & Gas, MC MHA 24-10HU, Moccasin Creek, no production data, 
35390, conf, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-3-8-8HLW, Siverston, no production data, 

Tuesday, April 2, 2019:
35502, conf,  RimRock Oil & Gas, MC MHA 24-10-3H, Moccasin Creek, no production data, 35390
35391, conf, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-5-8-7H, Siverston, no production data,
34959, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Federal Staael 2-32-5H-160-90L, Dimond, producing, 
34412, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dorothy 4-19-18-158N-98W MBH, Rainbow, no production data, 
34411, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dois 7-19-18-158N-98W TFH, Rainbow, no production data,
34409, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dois 6-19-18-158N-98W MBH, Rainbow, no production data, 
33668, conf, MRO, Fannie USA 21-1H, Reunion Bay, no production data,
29891, conf,  Lime Rock Resources, William Sadowsky 7-4-9H-142-96, Manning, producing, albeit not much;

Monday, April 1, 2019: 4 wells for the month; 4 wells for the quarter
35501, conf, Rimrock Oil, MC MHA 24-10-3TFH, Moccasin Creek, no production data,
35436, conf, XTO, Emma 31X-30HXE, Alkali Creek, no production data,
35219, conf, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5HXE, North Fork, no production data,
35218, conf, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5D, North Fork, no production data,

Sunday, March 31, 2019: 126 wells for the month; 346 wells for the quarter
None: there was no September 31 six months ago

Saturday, March 30, 2019: 126 wells for the month; 346 wells for the quarter
35435, conf, XTO, Emma 31X-30B, 
35267, conf, MRO, Ctherine 44-35H, 
34911, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-13-1H 2

Nothing About The Bakken -- March 31, 2019, T+88

Hillary Clinton quietly has her Arkansas law license reinstated. And, here.

Polar resurgence. This story is now several weeks (months?) old but need to get it posted for the archives. That decrease in the polar bear population. Nothing to do with global warming; simply over-hunted. Now? Polar bear population at record highs. Link here.

Coal. Lying with graphs. Not going anywhere soon. China and India both given a pass.

Be sure to check in on the linked blogs at the sidebar at the right.

Weekly, every Sunday, we get an exhaustive update at "focus on fracking."

Powerline: highly enjoyably conservative blog.

Deplorable Climate Science Blog, one of the best global warming sites on the net. The wildlife photography is second to none.

Not a lot of people know that; the coal stories above were linked at that site.

Ice Age Now: US.

Climate Depot: UK.

Joanna Nova: Australia.

Zero Hedge: banned by Facebook.


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Breakfast Before Skiing, Park City, UT
Einstein's Bagels