Monday, February 25, 2019

Werre Trust Well Brought Back Into Compliance -- February 25, 2019

The Werre Trust wells are tracked here.

This page won't be updated.

This is interesting.

This well was on AB status not too long ago -- "abandoned." The first step; then follows PA -- permanently abandoned.
  • 17880, 1,206, XTO, Werre Trust 21-3H, Bear Creek, t10/09; cum 177K AB 4/16; isn't this interesting, AB back in 4/16, now active as of 12/18; 
In a letter dated November 20, 2018, the NDIC informed XTO that the company (XTO) had 24 wells that were in non-compliance: AB that exceeded the time frame allowed -- either plug them and abandon them permanently or bring them back into production.

Well, what do you know? This well was brought back into production; it had not been on-line since 2016:

The recent production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20182313851134315919242621452
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20170000000
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-20170000000
BAKKEN12-20160000000
BAKKEN11-20160000000
BAKKEN10-20160000000
BAKKEN9-20160000000
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-20160000000
BAKKEN6-20160000000
BAKKEN5-20160000000
BAKKEN4-2016115188811385875118
BAKKEN3-20163111671082317172014301
BAKKEN2-201629114110403151568125047
BAKKEN1-2016311230126133816821289104
BAKKEN12-201531122714263771694132877

Connecting The Dots -- Nothing About The Bakken -- February 25, 2019

Is is possible to connect these two dots -- these two stories?
  • the CNN story: Kraft Heinz exposes Corporate America's debt problem
  • all of a sudden, the Fed seems less anxious to raise "rates" 
Then, of course, there was the shale oil operators debt story the other day.

Ballantyne Has Bought Some Crescent Point Energy Assets In Bottineau County -- Reader -- February 25, 2019

Note the update at this post.

A reader writes that Ballantyne has indeed bought some Crescent Point Energy assets in Bottineau County.

This is from a reader based on division orders; I'm still looking to see if this can be confirmed elsewhere.

So far, unable to find anything.

Crescent Point Energy is still seen occasionally on the monthly dockets. Not so often, Ballantyne.

Rocket Man -- February 25, 2019

President Trump is on his way to meet with Rocket Man.

Rocket Man, Elton John

When will that moniker pass to Jeff Bezos?

On another note, the EIA notes that in the US, at least, among those that use the most lighting (man-made sources, I presume) live in those states that have the least amount of daylight year-round. I can't make this stuff up.

*************************************
The Art Page

Skiing.

By Sophia, age 4 years 8 months, who learned to ski with her dad this year. She learned to ski at Angel Fire, New Mexico.

Text by her older sister.

Drawing by Sophia.

Proof That Efforts To Curtail AGW Are Working -- February 25, 2019

From Deplorable Climate Science which has incredible wildlife pictures. I think you all saw that Flagstaff, AZ, set all-time records for snowfall this year.


God's Weather Angel (Olaf The Cold One) Managing North Dakota's Weather/Climate Did Not Get The Memo -- February 25, 209

From Deplorable Climate Science, one of the best sites out there.


There are two graphics at the linked site; I've only posted the first one, see below.

The second graphic records the average high for the day which appears to be about 20 degrees Fahrenheit so far in February. The coldest February: about 15 degrees for the average afternoon high.

The first graph is a bit more difficult to read. This is the percentage of nights that recorded temperatures below zero degrees freezing. This year, February, over 93% so far. In the record year, it was slightly lower.

So, the average temperature was slightly less cold than the record year, but the number of nights below 0 degrees freezing set an all-time record this year.

The graphic of percentage of nights below zero degrees freezing:


Also, note the trend.

It was hard to tell from the graphic, the record year. It looked like 1936 which we all  know was supposed to have been a very, very cold year.

But there it was, below the graphics:
The coldest February was 1936, which had similar weather patterns – except for southwest which was mild that year.

ONEOK 4Q18 And Full-Year Resuts

Also note: SRE will report earnings tomorrow morning before market opening. 
The consensus EPS Estimate is $1.46 (-5.2% y-o-y) and the consensus revenue estimate is $2.94B (-0.7% y-o-y).
Where were we? Oh, yes, ONEOK.

Link here.
  • Higher full year 2018 results, compared with the full year 2017: 
    • 32 percent increase in operating income to $1,835.5 million
    • 23 percent increase in adjusted EBITDA to $2,447.5 million
    • 1.37 times dividend coverage ratio
    • 16 percent increase in natural gas volumes processed
    • 12 percent increase in natural gas liquids (NGL) volumes gathered. 
  • Higher 2019 financial guidance, compared with full year 2018 results: 
    • 10 percent net income midpoint increase to $1.27 billion
    • 6 percent adjusted EBITDA midpoint increase to $2.60 billion
    • Growth capital midpoint of $3.10 billion; maintenance capital midpoint of $180 million.
Shares pretty much flat for the day.

Pays slightly more than 5%.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

VEAC Announces Termination Of Acquisition Of Williston Basin Assets From QEP -- February 25, 2019

Updates

February 28, 2019: see update here.

February 25, 2019: a reader asked what I thought might happen next with QEP assets in the Williston Basin now that the VEAC deal fell through. I have no dog in this fight; I am not invested in any company mentioned in this post. But these are my thoughts:

QEP would still be interested in selling these assets; to some extent these assets are "stranded" as far as QEP is concerned. The Grail is one small oil field out in the middle of nowhere as far as QEP is concerned. Sort of a nuisance to manage from afar, I would think.

We now know the starting point:
  • 120,000 acres
  • $1.7 billion 
  • $15,000/acre
Since last year, one can argue that the value of these mineral acres has decreased based on price of WTI; glut of light oil; etc. On the other hand, the USGS survey, if and when it ever comes out, will probably suggest that the EUR of the Grail oil field will be greater than originally estimated. But insiders (oil companies) would already know that -- well ahead of the USGS. So, perhaps, a new buyer could swing a slightly better deal (for the buyer).

Whiting or CLR seem to be the best fit. Any of the others (which I cannot mention because I am invested in some of the others) could be interested, but Whiting and CLR simply seem to me to be the best fit.

At 400,000 acres (plus/minus) for Whiting, and 800,000 acres (plus/minus) for CLR, an additional 120,000 acres of a really, really good location would really move the needle.

But for $1.5 billion it would take a Whiting, a CLR, or one of the other larger companies already in the Bakken (about six of them) to pull it off. CLR has made a big deal about reducing their debt, suggesting they don't want to start over again, with a trend toward more debt.

I'm sure readers would be curious what others might think. For me, it's all idle chatter, but it is interesting to think about it.

Original Post
Received as a comment just moments ago:
From Vantage Energy site DENVER, Feb. 20, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Vantage Energy Acquisition Corp. (“VEAC”) (NASDAQ: VEAC, VEACU, VEACW), an energy-focused special purpose acquisition company, today announced that, given the deterioration in commodity prices and that it was unlikely that the conditions to closing would be satisfied, VEAC and QEP Energy Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of QEP Resources, Inc. (collectively, “QEP”), have entered into an agreement to terminate the pending acquisition by VEAC of QEP’s Williston Basin assets under the Purchase and Sale Agreement dated November 6, 2018, effective immediately.
The original announcement for an agreement was made last November, 2018.

Apparently the announcement to terminate the agreement was made last week, February 20, 2019.

I had missed the formal announcement / press release, so whoever sent me the information, thank you.

At the blog, here is the post from November 7, 2018. Back-of-the envelope showed the deal to be worth as much as $15,000 / acre.

MRO To Sell Its UK North Sea Assets To Focus US Shale -- February 25, 2019

Shale is a "retirement party, not a revolution." -- Art Berman. So, today, it is being reported that Marathon Oil is exiting the UK North Sea to focus on high-return US shale oil operations. Data points:
  • MRO holds interests in the Greater Brae Area; the Foinaven Field unit; and in Foinaven East
  • all assets, including decommissioning liability, will be transferred to a third party
  • price of the sale: $140 million
  • MRO's play in UK North Sea
  • production averaged 13,000 boepd at the end of 2018
  • proved reserves: 21.4 million bbls
  • last year, MRO sold its 16% non-operated in Libya to Total for $450 million
  • earlier this month (February, 2019) MRO said it would allocate 95% of its CAPEX to four key US plays: the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, STACK/SCOOP, and northern Delaware in the Permian
  • in the US, MRO
  • production averaged 295,000 boepd at the end of 2018
  • oil production at 174,000 bopd, up 22% from 4Q17
  • for 2019, MRO expects total oil production to rise by 10%; US oil growth at 12%
WTI: drop in WTI today is said have occurred because President Trump tweeted that oil is too expensive.


 *********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$55.442/25/201902/25/201802/25/201702/25/201602/25/2015
Active Rigs66574039121

Six new permits:
  • Operator: Slawson
  • Field: Big Bend (Mountrail)
  • Comments: Slawson has permits for a 6-well Stallion/Zephyr pad in lot 3, section 1-151-93; 
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 34082, 1,693, Equinor, Sjol 5-8F 3TFH, Williston, t1/19; cum --; #21146 -- still off line;
  • 34083, 1,628, Equinor, Sjol 5-8F 4TFH, Williston, t1/19; cum --; #21146 -- still off line;
  • 34561, 864, Abraxas, Ravin 11H, North Fork, t2/19; cum 24K over 41 days;
  • 34562, 1,096, Abraxas, Ravin 10H, North Fork, t1/19; cum 28K aver 47 days;

Random Look At A BR Gudmunson Well With A Jump In Production -- February 25, 2019

This well was fracked fairly recently, late 2016, but seemed to decline very quickly -- perhaps due to only a 22-stage frack .... until it had a jump in production in 10/18, albeit relatively short-lived.

The well:
  • 30972, 1,964, BR, Gudmunson 1-1-26MBH, 33-053-06825, Elidah, 22 stages, 7.6 million lbs;  t12/16; cum 220K 12/18; FracFocus data concurs
  • there's a lot of activity in the area, but I can't find any specific reason for that jump in production in 10/18;
Full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20183058815995788617769176950
BAKKEN11-2018301008010671948032947328730
BAKKEN10-20183116079150711024814091116142400
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20183102890000
BAKKEN7-20183174417359371417382173050
BAKKEN6-20183088288876426418098180240
BAKKEN5-2018257755769643271563114928641
BAKKEN4-20188287626961965264526250
BAKKEN3-201810306290793543290
BAKKEN2-2018002100000
BAKKEN1-201831671868944527927091930
BAKKEN12-20172976427493483911981119090
BAKKEN11-201730795579094664888688120
BAKKEN10-20171436143690214449224399490
BAKKEN9-201722100659930488725461254060
BAKKEN8-2017249702969658411710216357685
BAKKEN7-2017301543815445966240624405500
BAKKEN6-2017302071720820109694342442996354
BAKKEN5-20173131571314751286553364532870
BAKKEN4-2017302128521342898237207371330
BAKKEN3-2017311247512278556917831176460
BAKKEN2-20173560056002261978539515816
BAKKEN1-20170000000
BAKKEN12-2016227799779967221358613214241

Random Update Of RimRock Two Shields Butte Well Following Neighboring Fracks -- February 25, 2019

This well was taken off-line for a couple of months recently, and recent production extrapolates to 6,331 bbls/month vs 1,500 bbls/month when it came off line. 

The well:
Neighboring wells, one to the east, one to the west, note the test dates:
  • 32692, to the west, 1,716, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 13-21-16-3H, Heart Butte, t12/18; cum 32K 12/18; 
    33733, to the east, 1,063, RimRock, Two Shields Butte, Heart Butte, t10/18; cum 55K 12/18;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20181940103979327825691033658
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-2018104465542456551930
BAKKEN8-2018311452144279921106850
BAKKEN7-2018311511146881720786460

Coal Still Keeps New Hampshire Folks Warm During Coldest Days Of The Year -- February 26, 2019

Link here.


ISO New England here.

*******************************
Alaska Unlikely To Affect Global Warming -- Governor

Link here. Data points:
  • Governor Dunleavy abolishes Alaska's climate-change commission
  • reverses the first administrative order by the former governor 
    • that order halted work on:
      • the Ambler Road Project
      • the Juneau Access Project
      • the Susitna-Watana Dam Project
      • the Kodiak Launch Complex
      • the Knik Arm Crossing -- connects Anchorage and Point MacKenzie by bridge
      • the Alaska Stand Alone Pipeline Project 
  • disbands task force studying light rail options between Anchorage and the Matanuska-Susitna Borough
  • took action to favor right-to-work

The CLR Pasadena Wells In Banks Oil Field

Note: the old permit wells (#23791, #23792, from the north were fracked about the very same time as the newer permit (#34592) from the south was fracked.

The wells:
  • 34592, 2,764, CLR, Pasadena 5-11HSL1, Banks, t11/18; cum 92K 12/18; 
  • 23790, 2,706, CLR, Pasadena 2-2H, Banks, t10/18; cum 10K 12/18;
  • 23791, 1.990, CLR, Pasadena 3-2H1, Banks, t10/18; cum 84K 12/18;


  • 34591, 2.635, CLR, Pasadena 4-11HSL, Banks, 68 stages; 13.5 million lbs, t11/18; cum 137K 1/19; see update here;
  • 34592, see above,
  • 34546, 1,475, CLR, Pasadena 6-11H1, Banks, 4 sections, 57 stages, 6 million lbs, t11/18; cum 48K 12/18; note the small amount of proppant used; the Pasadena wells are tracked here; fracking strategies are tracked here;
  • 34731, 2,223, CLR, Pasadena 7X-11H,  Banks, 46 stages; 9.1 million lbs, t11/18; cum 100K 1/19;
  • 34732, conf, CLR, Pasadena 8X-11H1, t--; cum --;
  • 34733, conf, CLR, Pasadena 9X-11H, t--; cum --; a huge well, 80K in two months;
 The graphic:



Early production:

#34733:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20184118325860
11-20183905429105
9-20186270


#34732:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20182415515644
11-20182942127783
9-20184850

#34731:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20183938090824
11-20183941472428
10-201835276998
9-20184380


#34546:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20182177120374
11-20182413330885
10-201816363681
9-20183270
8-2018270


#34591:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20186378617628
11-20184251338023
10-201871616928
9-20189280
8-20182440

Seventeen Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- February 25, 2019

Charlie Pride: for those interested, a few days ago I asked the relationship between Charlie Pride and Montana. I got two responses. See this post. Thank you to those who responded. I knew part of the story but not the details. 

*******************************************
Back to the Bakken

Pasadena wells are starting to be reported; the wells are tracked here.

Enerplus "cat" wells are tracked here.


Wells coming off the confidential list -- Monday, February 25, 2019: 107 wells for the month; 210 wells for the quarter
  • 34897, SI/NC, MRO, Hurkes USA 41-16TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
  • 34413, 1,538, Enerplus, Honey Badger 149-93-30A-31H, Mandaree, t9/18; cum 106K 12/18;
  • 33776, 1,379, Enerplus, Leopard 149-93-30A-31H-TF, Mandaree, t9/18; cum 67K 12/18;
  • 33775, 1,644, Enerplus, Serval 149-93-30A-31H, Mandaree, t9/18; cum 139K 12/18;
  • 33774, 788, Enerplus, Caracal 149-93-30A-31H-TF, Mandaree, t9/18; cum 56K 12/18;
  • 32149, SI/NC, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-2, Capa, no production data,
  • 32148, SI/NC, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-LE-155-96-2635H-1, Capa, no production data,
  • 31497, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-1B-7-4H, Charlson, no production data,
Sunday, February 24, 2019: 99 wells for the month; 202 wells for the quarter
  • 34898, SI/NC, MRO, White Owl USA 41-16H, Reunion Bay, no production data,
  • 33093, 1,791, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 12-19H, Elm Tree,t12/18; cum 13K over 10 days;
  • 32150, SI/NC, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-3, Capa, no production data,
  • 30765, SI/NC, Slawson, Hunter 4-8-17MLH, Big Bend, no production data,
Saturday, February 23, 2019: 95 wells for the month; 198 wells for the quarter
  • 34899, SI/NC, MRO, Weidman USA 11-15TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
  • 34766, 638, CLR, Steve 1-34H, Larson, t9/18; cum 60K 12/18;
  • 34592, 2,764, CLR, Pasadena 5-11HSL1, Banks, t11/18; cum 92K 12/18;
  • 32164, SI/NC, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-4, Capa, no production data,
  • 24739, 2,397, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-94-15B-22-5H, Antelope, produced 261K between 10/13; and 4/16 when it was taken off-line; sundry form to start work on/about August 15, 2018 -- isolate collapsed casing; plug it; sidetrack; see details at this post; t10/13; cum 261K 4/16; no production since 4/16;
Active rigs:

$56.332/25/201902/25/201802/25/201702/25/201602/25/2015
Active Rigs66574039121

RBN Energy: Part 2 -- a new capacity allocation tack for Enbridge's Mainline crude system.
Enbridge’s 2.8-MMb/d Mainline system from Alberta to the U.S. Midwest has been running close to full, as have the other crude oil pipelines out of Western Canada. The Mainline is a unicorn among these pipes, however, in that none of its capacity — zilch — is under long-term contract. Instead, under Enbridge’s almost nine-year-old Competitive Tolling Settlement (CTS), shippers each month submit nominations stating the volumes of crude they would like to transport the following month on various elements of the Mainline system, then hope they get what they need when the available capacity is divvied up. In an effort to give producers and refiners the pipeline-capacity certainty they say they want — and to optimize the efficiency of the Mainline’s operation — Enbridge has been working with shippers on a CTS-replacement plan that would commit as much as 90% of the capacity on the pipeline system to shippers who enter into long-term contracts. Today, we continue this blog series with a look at how the prospective “priority access” capacity-allocation system is shaping up, how it might affect planned pipeline projects, and how it may facilitate the transport of a lot more crude from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast.