Sunday, February 3, 2019

Global Warming Hits The Bakken -- Again -- February 3, 2019


... and closes the entire northern half of the state:


Nothing About The Bakken -- February 3, 2019

The Way We Were: the movie I love. The movie I cannot watch. 1973. Robert Redford. Barbra Streisand. Was it not the best? And it's playing on TCM right now. Opposite the PGA tournament, TPC Scottsdale. Lead-in to the Super Bowl. What's not to like. Even though I can't watch that movie any more, it's on on my "top shelf" list. It's of the same "mold" as Dr Zhivago and Lawrence of Arabia. Favorite movies, top ten movies, that I cannot watch many of them any more. I'm not sure "why" I can still watch Casablanca and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.

PGA: Paul Azinger replaces Johnny Miller as NBC color for PGA tournaments. Can one say "color" any more? 

Fantastic Voyage: on TCM last night. I had never seen the movie before. If I have, I've forgotten. Released in 1966. Probably got to Williston, ND, in 1969. LOL. Raquel Welch? Yawn. I recognized Donald Pleasence but couldn't place him. Finally, I did. Columbo: Any Old Sport in a Storm. Coincidence. Also came out in 1973.

Marie Kondō: the family has a graphic novel -- along the lines of The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up: The Japanese Art of Decluttering and Organizing,  Marie Kondō, c. 2014. I read some of it the other day while waiting to take Sophia to school. She calls it school, but in fact its pre-pre-K. And she loves it. But I digress. I learned enough in a few pages, to throw out two boxes of clothes/odd-and-ends in storage and I completely emptied one drawer in my four-drawer chest of drawers. I have only one chest of drawers so I decluttered 25%.


Christmas gifts: family members got me any number of bicycle accessories this year. They do that every year. I often put these accessories aside where they end up cluttering the floor, a drawer, a shelf. Today, I put all the accessories on the bikes. I have several bikes so plenty of places to put all the accessories. Some accessories have instructions. I use to save those, file the away. No longer. i-photograph them and file them inside the virtual bicycle folder on the virtual desktop.

Amazon. Lives up to its name. From wiki:
In 1998, Jeff Bezos, founder, owner, and CEO of Amazon.com, struck a deal with Needham and other principal shareholders to buy IMDb outright for approximately $55 million[9] and attach it to Amazon as a subsidiary, private company.[10] This gave IMDb the ability to pay the shareholders salaries for their work, while Amazon.com would be able to use IMDb as an advertising resource for selling DVDs and videotapes.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

AMZN: wow, I wish Jeff Bezos/Amazon would do what Warren Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway did with BBK: A and B shares. AMZN, less than $350/share less than five years ago is now over $1,600/share.

Echo Dot/Alexa: incredible. 


******************************
Skiing Downhill With Daddy

Spuds.


Sophia drew this in January, 2019. This was the first year she was ever on skis. She took two days of lessons at Angel Fire, and then skied with her dad and her two older sisters.

Months later she still knows how to ski ("french fries") and how to stop ("pizza").

The other day on her bicycle, when I was teaching her to brake, I asked her how she "braked" when she skied? Her answer: "pizza."

Too Many EVs? -- February 3, 2019

Updates

February 9, 2019: profit margins on EVs incredibly small; if it weren't for government mandates, auto manufacturers would not be making them.

Original Post 

Over at oilprice: Are automakers overestimating EV demand?
Electric cars were the stars of the Detroit Auto Show this year and they have been garnering a lot of attention from the media generally amid increasingly urgent talk about climate change and how the world is failing in the fight against it. Every self-respecting automaker has at least one EV in the pipeline. The biggest ones have several. And all of these new EVs are scheduled to hit the market in the next few years. A pileup may be coming.

The pileup could be “of epic proportions” as AlixPartners warned in a study.
By the end of this year alone analysts expect almost a dozen new EVs to make their appearance in showrooms across the United States. Some of these will be direct competitors of Tesla, which currently boasts an impressive 83 percent of the U.S. battery electric car market.

The “threat for Tesla” angle in EV reporting is a popular one and indeed a 83-percent market share is an unsustainable one in any industry. But with Tesla’s brand loyalty, concerns about the company’s future sales may be premature. What is not premature is a worry about that pileup AlixPartners warned about.

The world’s biggest carmakers are pouring billions into electric vehicles motivated by government incentives and strategies envisaging the phasing out of ICE vehicles in some markets. From the pro-EV perspective, the time is just right to launch as many electric cars as one can design and manufacture. All the big carmakers have developed EV manufacturing platforms and are preparing to put them to good use. Millions of EVs are coming to the market. There is just one problem with that: actual sales statistics.
The other side of the coin: if you have a home, a 220-volt outlet in the garage, at least two other ICE vehicles, and are in the market for a new (additional) car this may be the year to consider an EV. Prices could plummet if millions of EVs come to the market, and American only "need" hundreds of thousands.

Total number of EVs sold in the US in 2018: 360,000.

Worldwide: 2 million.

Epping Wells Have Been Updated -- February 3, 2019

I've been updating the Epping oil field wells but I still have a lot of work to do on this field.

This is an interesting field. It seemed to have started out "slow" but it's becoming an incredible field.

For example: look at these incredible Kraken wells.

I've mentioned this before on the blog: it's my hunch that operators often under-promise what a field might offer. Call it the "Disneyland effect." The operators have to thread the needle. They need to "talk up" their assets to generate investor interest, but they are watched closely by the SEC. On the other hand, they don't want to get too far in front of their headlights and drive up lease rates and acquisition costs.

But if one remembers, one of the first CBR terminals in the Bakken was in the Epping oil field. That should have been a big hint.

Even more interesting for me: during the Bakken boom I drove my dad out to Epping numerous times; the field never seemed particularly active. My hunch is that the field is very, very active right now.

It reminds me a little bit of Bailey oil field, although Bailey at 160+ sections is much, much bigger than the 30+ section Epping oil field. 

So, give me a few days, and I will get the Epping oil field completed.

MRO Re-Fracking Program In The Bailey Oil Field -- February 3, 2019

Interesting, interesting things going on with MRO in the Bailey oil field.

I've just updated all the Bailey oil field wells through 2015. Absolutely amazing.

For newbies:
  • MRO has a huge re-frack program going on in the Bailey oil field. It's been going on for quite some time
  • Bailey oil field and MRO: some great wells but the real story is the re-fracks
  • to drill/complete a well on a new pad, greenfield, in the Bakken: in excess of $10 million 
  • to drill/complete a new well on an existing pad, in the Bakken: $6 million, maybe more
  • to re-frack an old well: $4 million, maybe less;
  • MRO often uses a mediocre amount of proppant in a re-frack;
  • re-fracking a new well in the Bakken: 90%+ chance that it will successful;
  • re-fracking: pretty much results in a new well;
  • re-fracking: impact on neighboring wells varies from field to field
Look at this. In Bailey oil field, these great wells are now off-line (when I say "now," remember: the paperwork lags what is going on in the field; the most recent data over at the NDIC is from 12/18):
  • 30550. 
  • 29384.
  • 29383.  
  • 29382.
  • 29381.
  • 28704.
  • 28459.
  • 28360.
  • 28358.
  • 28111.
  • 25114. 
  • 24973.
  • 24075. 
  • 23980.
  • 22658.
  • 22451.
  • 22333. See this post.
In the ten years blogging about the Bakken, I have never seen this before. I'm sure it's happened before and perhaps it happened earlier in the Bailey but for me it's a new phenomenon. 

Another Example Of What The SeekingAlpha Crowd Is Missing -- Not Just In The Bakken But Everywhere -- February 3, 2019

Comments/Updates

 Comments that came in later, for newbies:
  • for minimal cost, MRO seems to have gotten a brand new well
  • MRO was pretty much guaranteed a brand new well -- something we never saw before the "unconventional" drilling / "the shale revolution"
  • the company did not have to pay upfront costs for a new lease; did not have to negotiate with the surface owner; is not paying additional surface "rent"; did not have to build a new pad; did not have to pay for new infrastructure, including new electricity access (a big choke point during the boom);  
  • every well drilled before 2016 is a candidate for a re-frack
  • by the time every well drilled before 2016 is re-fracked, it will be time to re-frack all the wells drilled between 2016 and 2022
  • when the Bakken boom began, primary production was estimated to be 1 - 3%
  • no one is talking but tea leaves suggest primary production in the Bakken is now in the low teens
  • conventional drilling, primary production, 50%?
  • can't wait to see EUR-type curves coming out of the Bakken in 2025
Original Post
 
Well, this is interesting. The Bakken never quits surprising me.

Art Berman, put #17255 in your pipe and smoke it.

First this well:
  • 17255, 465/1,799, MRO, Pelton 24-31H, Bailey, t9/08 and 4/17;  
  • from the sundry form, dated March 1, 2017: MRO is planning to refrack this well. Originally an open hole completion in 2008 and drilled with toe setbacks that were 500' FNL of section 30. This well had an original TD depth of 19,932' MD. MRO plans to put a rig on this well, extend the lateral starting at a tie-on survey at approximately 19,885' MD,and drill an approximate additional 450' of lateral (extending lateral to approximately 160' FNL of section 30). MRO will then run a cemented liner for a 45-stage plug and perf style completion.
  • second frack: 45 stages; 5.2 million lbs; cum 419K 11/18; full production profile here; recent production data. :
BAKKEN9-2017301637016300122761211241586024
BAKKEN8-2017312027920304163841497952447381
BAKKEN7-20173125626255912547718929147514540
BAKKEN6-2017241817718187196131325039107265
BAKKEN5-20173123337233662894817072108113582
BAKKEN4-2017787278599215625619763308
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-2017820218440163934
BAKKEN1-20173189687520768831796
BAKKEN12-20162977175618760834711
BAKKEN11-2016308348651926433659
BAKKEN10-2016318638422066814021

Now we have another nice MRO in that very same drilling unit that has come off-line:
  • 22333, IA/1,086, MRO, RH 34-31TFH, t9/12; cum 171K 518; off-line 5/18;
NDIC File No: 22333     API No: 33-025-01608-00-00     CTB No: 222332
Well Type: OG     Well Status: IA     Status Date: 8/15/2018     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: SWSE 31-146-93     Footages: 293 FSL 2321 FEL     Latitude: 47.416327     Longitude: -102.576085
Current Operator: MARATHON OIL COMPANY
Current Well Name: RH 34-31TFH
Elevation(s): 2290 KB   2265 GR   2265 GL     Total Depth: 20492     Field: BAILEY
Spud Date(s):  6/1/2012
Casing String(s):  9.625" 2091'   7" 10939'  
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11275-20492     Comp: 9/6/2012     Status: AL     Date: 12/21/2012     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 171158     Cum MCF Gas: 120288     Cum Water: 154425
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 9/6/2012     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 1086     IP MCF: 882     IP Water: 1597
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-201800800000
BAKKEN5-201873684883752653199
BAKKEN4-201830162416711833130613935
BAKKEN3-2018311874182420521429643395

Ranting And Raving On A Sunday Morning -- And Then I'm Going Off Line To Read -- Good Luck To All -- February 3, 2019

From iceagenow:


NOTE: the graphic is from PJM. 

For the millennials who may not be able to read a pie graph (or even know what a pie graph is):
  • coal: 33%
  • natural gas: 33%
  • nuclear energy (much of which will be going away in the out years): 27%
    • subtotal: 93%
  • multiple fuels, which I assume include heating oil, diesel, fuel oil: 4%
    • subtotal: 97%
  • I can't make out solar or wind on the pie graph
When you see these graphics and have just lived through the polar vortex, a sentient being (perhaps even Scott Adams) needs to ask "why" is anyone in their right mind promoting wind and solar energy? Even if it's all about CO2/global warming (and, of course, it isn't), putting up a few wind farms in the US will make no difference when the Indians and Chinese are going to be burning more fossil fuel (natural gas and coal) than ever before in the out years. Thank goodness India and China are on the other side of the earth; it will take longer for that atmospheric CO2 to reach America.

Transferring $100 billion from OECD to a couple of islands in the South Pacific, administered by a committee in South Korea, tells me:
  • this whole thing is a scam; and,
  • this $100 billion won't do anything to combat AGW (which doesn't exist anyway)
1,500 private jets carrying 1,500 non-scientist billionaires also speaks volumes. If they aren't concerned about CO2 emissions, why should the rest of us be concerned? Couldn't they have at least jet-pooled and/or car-pooled?

Fact check:
  • there were not exactly 1,500 private jets flying into Davos
  • not all private jets carried only one or two passengers; some carried more
  • not all private jets were owned by billionaires; some were leased; and some of the "billionaires" were only multi-millionaires
What was it that P. T. Barnum was said to have said?
  • “Nobody ever lost a dollar by underestimating the taste of the American public.”
Whenever our granddaughters have a question they cannot answer, I tell them to a) google it; or, b) follow the money.

Google, in this case, is unhelpful. Google searches on AGW will simply take you to religious arguments: one either "believes" in AGW or one doesn't "believe" in AGW. When it comes to AGW, I am not agnostic. I am an atheist.

In this case, it's all about "following the money."

As one example this story is all over the AGW blogosphere, but won't be reported in the mainstream media. Just as the mainstream sports media won't report on how the PGA ruled on Justin Thomas' infraction yesterday (but that's another story).

This is not some low-level worker-bee. This is the head of the UK global warming climate scheme/scam:


How much has Algore made on this scam?

See comments below to explain why this screenshot is posted here:


***************************
The Book Page

Genius: The Life and Science of Richard Feynman, James Gleick, c. 1992.

Random Look At Three Equinor Wells In Painted Woods -- February 3, 2019

Random look at two Equinor wells in Painted Woods, a Tier 2 location. These wells have not been re-fracked but they seem to show a bit of renewed life since the original frack:
  • 24478, 1,562, Equinor/Statoil, M. Olson 20-29 4H, t8/14; cum 187K 12/18; see #24476;
  • 24476, 1,890, Equinor/Statoil, M. Olson 20-29 6H, t7/14; cum 188K 12/18; this well was not re-fracked but it shows some "renewed life"; see #24478;
Comments:
  • back when these wells were being planned/designed, my hunch is that the publicly stated EUR was in the range of 350K
  • these wells probably paid for themselves by 150K
  • these wells will produce for 35 years
Selected production data. Without a re-frack I would have expected both these wells to be down to less than 1,000 bbls/month:

#24478:
BAKKEN7-20182819421874443916251099418
BAKKEN6-20183021582138466218441281443
BAKKEN5-2018261759179343291276800352
BAKKEN4-2018291777175843381248644487
BAKKEN3-201831205319994647659371257
BAKKEN2-201828167516914153783379376
BAKKEN1-2018312341245448101291808452
BAKKEN12-20173125682475492018251105689
BAKKEN11-20173028302822530221011365706
BAKKEN10-20173130633088595221891371787
BAKKEN9-201719132514993490815540258
BAKKEN8-20173128742848612820621737294
BAKKEN7-2017312399242862161385915439
BAKKEN6-2017302145179767261230860340
BAKKEN5-201731282288642211
BAKKEN4-201700526011810010
BAKKEN3-2017233713367163803576354135
BAKKEN2-2017253270346576232498248216


#24476:
BAKKEN7-20183120772007497025911794681
BAKKEN6-20183023402358501930452173752
BAKKEN5-20183123382391522330122004884
BAKKEN4-201830244124435202302416571250
BAKKEN3-201831312430815736543031942205
BAKKEN2-201828308930245530441221992185
BAKKEN1-201831274729805359359822931281
BAKKEN12-201731403438606591513431451958
BAKKEN11-201730394439256690478331321621
BAKKEN10-201731410440127488482030421747
BAKKEN9-2017128368223328862575276
BAKKEN8-20173180011083253777646110
BAKKEN7-201731299531367186348023291120
BAKKEN6-20173033153462755233172355932
BAKKEN5-20173130653301729617941654120
BAKKEN4-20173032972836715716241468149
BAKKEN3-2017313309316879191502148715
BAKKEN2-2017272213222678393563542


The graphic:


What about that even older well in the graphic?
  • 19389, 1,936, Equinor, M. Olson 20-29 1-H, API: 33-105-01923, Painted Woods, t12/10; cum 307K 12/18:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201831217918593748000
BAKKEN11-2018227457182003814401329
BAKKEN10-20183115891441292720101672214
BAKKEN9-2018301581156129301926177135
BAKKEN8-20183115981798298819311665142
BAKKEN7-2018291691137629471928857955
BAKKEN6-201830174417972890222120938
BAKKEN5-2018311943228830272330216046
BAKKEN4-2018291909186329531999183052
BAKKEN3-201831210218833360225822207
BAKKEN2-2018281945187529701842176747
BAKKEN1-2018312227257732801329123961
BAKKEN12-2017191363139020347807574
BAKKEN11-2017302319207931602157209533
BAKKEN10-201731244327333247214021090
BAKKEN9-201727186913642833126412343


By the way, from the most recent sundry form dated October 4, 2018, another example of the "good neighbor" policy:
"Land owner (Brad Olson) is having issues with the site drainage at the M Olson which is causing some erosion problems in his field. Equinor Energy LP is relocating the site drain as shown in the attached image at his request. With the weather situation, Equinor has planned to do this work today (10/4/18). "

The last work-over of this well appears to have been in early March, 2012. 

A Random Look At Some Of The Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- February 3, 2019

The full list of wells coming off the confidential list next week is posted here.

These are a few of the wells of interest coming off the confidential list next week.

Comments:
  • when I first started blogging, I was not particularly impressed with the Painted Woods oil field, but Oasis reports a nice Painted Woods well; Painted Woods is tracked here, although it has not been updated in a long time; it will be interesting to compare the "old" Florence well (#19556) with the "new" Florence well; this certainly does not look like Tier 1, maybe not even Tier 2; from an earlier post: Oasis: added Painted Woods to core inventory in February, 2018; initial well results are outperforming company's expectations.
  • when I first started blogging, Fancy Buttes oil field was never on my radar scope, but CLR is going to report some nice "Norway" wells out of Fancy Buttes
  • in addition, the "new" Norway wells had a huge impact on an "old" Norway well (#19380)
  • it's interesting to see EOG getting back into the Bakken; I don't think that could have been predicted; there was "no reason" to come back so soon -- they had "bigger" opportunities elsewhere (?) based on SeekingAkpha contributors; and everything they had in the Williston Basin was held by production; they weren't going to lose anything by not coming back to the Bakken
  • overall, these wells are exponentially better than the same wells in the same field would have been ten years ago; in other words for a mineral owner, what's better? 40 bbls/month at $50/bbl or 20; bbls/month at $100/bbl; that's rhetorical, please don't reply; and, many of these wells are three to four times better than what they would have been ten years ago; those anxious to have "their" wells drilled might be happy some wells were delayed
  • Liberty Resources: hope springs eternal
33984, conf, Oasis, Dawson 5494 43-12 10B, Alkali Creek, a very nice well;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-201810765994
10-20182632726001
9-20183081031892
8-2018269923918

34615, conf, Oasis, Florence 5303 11-2 2B, Painted Woods:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20184225547047
11-2018756211256
10-201863846430
8-20187710

33462, conf, CLR, Omlid 5-19H2, Elidah,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20181322728151
8-2018566

33726, conf, CLR, Norway 4-5H1, Fancy Buttes,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20184225547047
11-2018756211256
10-201863846430
8-20187710

34200, conf, CLR, Norway 6-5H2, Fancy Buttes,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20184111149728
11-2018671010334
10-201855225786
8-201815500

33293, conf, Liberty Resources, Waldon W 157-97-24-25-3MBH, Ray, a nice well;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20181022819435
11-20181190518452
10-20181411220922
9-20181254523477
8-201896621663

34769, conf, Liberty Resources, Martin C 158-93-11-2-3MBH, Enget Lake, a nice well;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2018100583954
11-2018116230
10-2018128570
9-2018139080
8-2018123930

33020, conf, EOG, Fertile 84-0701H, Parshall,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2018245488428
10-2018235899860
9-2018211308265
8-2018114476393

33019, conf, EOG, Fertile 85-0701H, Parshall, a very nice well for a Fertile well;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20182477121639
10-201893637127
9-2018205803710
8-20182650212056

33021, conf, EOG, Fertile 86-0701H, Parshall:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2018180224923
10-20182168266
9-2018206596442
8-20182955111449

33374, conf, EOG, Liberty 45-1311H, Parshall, a nice well,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2018154596812
10-201819637762
9-20183700210724
8-20182865015410

33373, conf, EOG, Liberty 44-1311H, Parshall, a nice well,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20181896612860
10-20182914125615
9-20183920427685
8-20182901216983

34271, conf, EOG, Liberty 114-1311H, Parshall, a nice well;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20182294518652
10-20183116618587
9-20183841822208
8-20182423014215