Friday, January 25, 2019

Signing Off For The Night -- Good Luck To All -- January 25, 2019

I don't know if folks can read the numbers on the charts/maps -- very small print. If you click on the second map believe, you should be able to zoom in on it.

It's from "Major League Storms" over at Facebook.



A polar vortex will hit North Dakota and then east to Chicago next week. Forecast for next Tuesday / Wednesday on the graphics above. I believe these are WIND CHILL temperatures, not actual air (ambient) temperatures.

The low for selected cities/areas (all temps in Fahrenheit; -40 degrees is the same in both Fahrenheit and Celsius, so in some cases it won't matter). Again, WIND CHILL temperatures, I believe:
  • Williston: -44 degrees
  • Tioga: -56 degrees
  • Devils Lake: -70 degrees (again, this is WIND CHILL, I believe)
  • Jamestown: - 69 degrees
  • Fargo/Grand Forks: slightly warmer than Jamestown, at -66 to-67 degrees
South Dakota will feel much warmer:
  • Sioux Falls: -51 degrees
  • Rapid City: -17 degrees
  • north-central: -56 degrees
There probably won't be a lot of fracking accomplished in the Bakken next week.

Throughout the day today, the Weather Channel talked about the polar vortex that will hit the Midwest next week.

Europe Now #1 Customer For US LNG; Overtakes South Korea And Mexico -- January 25, 2019

From SeekingAlpha market news

Europe is top buyer of U.S. LNG with winter cargo influx - Reuters

  • Europe is now the top buyer of U.S. liquefied natural gas after a near 5x spike in U.S. LNG sales to the continent this winter, overtaking South Korea and Mexico, according to a Reuters analysis, after prices in Asia fell sharply on lower than expected demand while prices in Europe, traditionally seen as a market of last resort, have remained steady.
  • U.S. LNG shipments to Europe totaled 3.23M metric tons, or 48 cargoes, in October to January, compared to 700K tons, or nine cargoes, in the year-ago period, bringing the U.S. to second place behind only Qatar as an LNG supplier to Europe.
  • U.S. LNG also offers countries an alternative to piped gas and forces Russia to compete on price; Russia's Gazprom  pumps 190B cm, or the equivalent of 145M metric tons/year to Europe, 4x the current capacity of all U.S. LNG export terminals.
Look at that year-over-year increase!
  • last year, 700K metric tons = 9 cargoes
  • one year later, 3.23 million metric = 45 cargoes
Whenever I see stories like this, I always think back to "Europe at a tipping point" which I first posted  years ago at "the big stories."

BR's Rink / Kermit Wells In Pershing Oil Field

The graphic:



The wells in the graphic above:
  • 17393, 600, BR, Boxer 21-6H, Pershing, t3/10; cum 248K 11/18; needs to be re-fracked;

  • 17371, 695, BR, Parrish 1-31H, Pershing, t2/09; cum 169K 11/18; needs to be re-fracked;

  • 16854, 140, BR, Rink 24-8H, Pershing, t11/08; cum 160K 11/18; needs to be re-fracked;

  • 36004, conf, BR, Rink 4-1-5MBH, Pershing,
  • 36005, conf, BR, Kermit 3-8-32UTFH, Pershing,
  • 36006, conf, BR, Rink 4-1-5UTFH, Pershing,
  • 36007, conf, BR, Kermit 2-8-32UMBH, Pershing,

  • 33979, 161, BR, Kermit 4-8-32 MBH, Pershing, t8/18; cum 59K 11/18;
  • 33978, n/d, BR, Rink 5-1-5 UTFH, Pershing, t--; cum 33K 11/18;
  • 33977, 494, BR, Kermit 5-8-32 UTFH, Pershing, t9/18; cum 50K 11/18;
  • 34054, SI/NC, BR, Rink 6-1-5 MBH, Pershing, 
  • 34738, 198, BR, Rink 6-1-5MBH-R, Pershing, t10/18; cum 57K 11/18;
  • 34844, 198, BR, Rink 8-1-5MBH-R, Pershing, t9/18; cum 45K 11/18;

  • 34055, 355, BR, Rink 7-1-5UTFH, Pershing, t8/18; cum 52K 11/18;
  • 34056, 320, BR, Kermit 7-8-32 UTFH, Pershing, t8/18; cum 53K 11/18;
  • 34057, dry, BR, Rink 8-1-5MBH, Pershing, t10/18;
  • 34058, 541, BR, Kermit 8-8-32MBH, Pershing, t8/18; cum 63K 11/18;
  • 34059, 379, BR, Rinkurtis 8-1-5UTFH-ULW, t8/18; cum 42K 11/18;

  • 29867, 3,126, BR, Kirkland 14-21TFH ULW, Pershing, t10/15; cum 398K 11/18;
  • 29804, 2,806, BR, Kirkland 13-21MBH, t11/15; cum 277K 11/18;

  • 17432, 156, BR, Curtis 1-4H, North Fork, t3/09; cum 196K 11/18; subtle jump; improved EUR;

  • 17292, 765, BR, Kirkland 1-33H, Pershing, t10/08; cum 229K 11/18;

Five New Permits -- January 25, 2019

Active rigs:

$53.521/25/201901/25/201801/25/201701/25/201601/25/2015
Active Rigs65563848157

Five new permits:
  • Operators: BR (4); Hunt
  • Fields: Pershing (McKenzie), Alexandria (Divide)
  • Comments: BR has permits for a 4-well Rink/Kermit pad in Pershing oil field, section 32-150-96, see this post; Hunt has a permit for an Alexandria well in Alexandria oil field, section 22-161-100; 
Four permits renewed:
  • Bruin (2): two Fort Berthold permits in Dunn County
  • Whiting (2): a G Bergstrom permit and a Kaldahl permit, both in Williams County

North Dakota Oil Revenue Study, 2008 - 2018

Released January 25, 2019.

When clicking on the link, a pdf is likely to download on your desktop: it will be a two-page glossy document.

Crude oil:
  • extraction tax, 5% of the gross value of oil production at the well
  • gross production tax (in lieu of property tax), 5% of the gross value of oil production at the well
Natural gas:
  • gas production is taxed on a volume basis at a rate determined by the movement of a fuels cost index



Global Warming To Smack The US -- January 25, 2019 -- Polar Vortex

Minor notes:
  • Minot, ND, this morning: 66 degrees below zero, wind chill
  • Weather Channel: coldest weather in two years about to hit the US
    • "life-threatening cold invades the US" -- the Weather Channel crawler 
    • polar vortex; colder than usual
    • Chicago: the cold spell could be relatively short in duration
    • Devils Lake, ND: forecast to hit 32 degrees below zero; that's not wind chill; that's actual air temperature
  • Minneapolis, MN, cancels Winter Carnival, too cold. Are you kidding? Only 8 degrees below zero; real Minnesota folks could have handled that -- it must be all the new folks. They may need to schedule the winter carnival later in the year, maybe June or July
Reality:
  • for all that talk, Winter Storm Harper was a typical winter storm for the US; those focused on AGW were simply taken by surprise; this wasn't supposed to happen in their movie; looking for an alternate ending
  • Winter Storm Indra even less remarkable: mostly just some rain
  • real storm: the government shutdown -- New York area airports shutting down/delayed due to ATC sick-out
  • government will open up long enough to keep TSA/ATC on duty through the Super Bowl
**************************************
Notes for the Granddaughters

From:  Anabasis Alexandrou, The Campaigns Of Alexander, The Landmark Arrian, Edited By James Romm, c. 2010.

Greek and Macedonian ethnicity, p. 333:
The origins of the historical Macedonians as a people .... [o]ne matter, however, is certain: modern scholarship no longer adheres to hte anthropological question that dominated so much of mid-20th-century thought: Where does a people come from? Unless there is a clear archaeological and/or literary tradition describing the migration of a people from one place to another, modern scholars are increasingly inclined to ask: How and when does a people emerge? That is, by what process and under what influences does it acquire a character that makes its constituent members appear to be different and distinct from others, and to those around them, for these are the ways that ethnicity is characterized.
Notes on the book.
  • the author: Arrian --
    • full name: Lucius Flavius Arrianus
    • the full name suggests that the Greek author's family most likely received Roman citizenship after Vespasian's triumph in the civil wars (69 - 70 CE -- 69 CE was the Year of the Four Emperors)
    • most likely wrote during the reign of Hadrian (r. 117 - 138 CE) almost four centuries removed from the time of Alexander himself
    • Arrian was a citizen and high official of a wide-ranging, multicultural, stable, and organized empire (the Roman Empire); not a member of a small, autonomous Greed city-state as many previous writers on Alexander were
    • he spent much of his career in the military and administrative leadership of that empire
    • he served as governor of Cappadocia in the 130s, the Roman province that included much of modern-day Turkey
    • he was closely connected to Hadrian
    • had a deep and automatic respect for authority
    • had a high regard for great generalship and tactical success
    • "worshipped" Alexander the Great; would likely "skew" his biography of the campaign
    • his chief literary role models and rivals were Greek
    • emulated Homer, Herodotus, Thucydides, and Xenophon
    • he even referred to himself as "the New Xenophon"
    • Plutarch was an older contemporary of Arrian
  • his main sources: Ptolemy and Aristoboulos
  • Aristoboulus: an interior decorator; over the age of 80 when he began writing his history of Alexander
  • Ptolemy I Soter: a close friend and perhaps Alexander's top general (certainly one of the top five)
    • first foreign king/pharaoh of Egypt
    • started the Ptolemaic dynasty of Egypt that last 300 years
    • famously, women rulers in the Ptolemaic dynasty had significant power (the Cleopatra we "know" was Cleopatra #7; the first Cleopatra was Alexander the Great's sister)Notes for the Granddaughters

      From:  Anabasis Alexandrou, The Campaigns Of Alexander, The Landmark Arrian, Edited By James Romm, c. 2010.

      Greek and Macedonian ethnicity, p. 333:
      The origins of the historical Macedonians as a people .... [o]ne matter, however, is certain: modern scholarship no longer adheres to hte anthropological question that dominated so much of mid-20th-century thought: Where does a people come from? Unless there is a clear archaeological and/or literary tradition describing the migration of a people from one place to another, modern scholars are increasingly inclined to ask: How and when does a people emerge? That is, by what process and under what influences does it acquire a character that makes its constituent members appear to be different and distinct from others, and to those around them, for these are the ways that ethnicity is characterized.
      Notes on the book.
    • the author: Arrian --
      • full name: Lucius Flavius Arrianus
      • the full name suggests that the Greek author's family most likely received Roman citizenship after Vespasian's triumph in the civil wars (69 - 70 CE -- 69 CE was the Year of the Four Emperors)
      • most likely wrote during the reign of Hadrian (r. 117 - 138 CE) almost four centuries removed from the time of Alexander himself
      • Arrian was a citizen and high official of a wide-ranging, multicultural, stable, and organized empire (the Roman Empire); not a member of a small, autonomous Greed city-state as many previous writers on Alexander were
      • he spent much of his career in the military and administrative leadership of that empire
      • he served as governor of Cappadocia in the 130s, the Roman province that included much of modern-day Turkey
      • he was closely connected to Hadrian
      • had a deep and automatic respect for authority
      • had a high regard for great generalship and tactical success
      • "worshipped" Alexander the Great; would likely "skew" his biography of the campaign
      • his chief literary role models and rivals were Greek
      • emulated Homer, Herodotus, Thucydides, and Xenophon
      • he even referred to himself as "the New Xenophon"
      • Plutarch was an older contemporary of Arrian
    • his main sources: Ptolemy and Aristoboulos
    • Aristoboulus: an interior decorator; over the age of 80 when he began writing his history of Alexander
    • Ptolemy I Soter: a close friend and perhaps Alexander's top general (certainly one of the top five)
      • first foreign king/pharaoh of Egypt
      • started the Ptolemaic dynasty of Egypt that last 300 years
      • famously, women rulers in the Ptolemaic dynasty had significant power (the Cleopatra we "know" was Cleopatra #7; the first Cleopatra was Alexander the Great's sister)

It Never Quits -- Another Pipeline Connector In The Bakken -- MDU -- January 25, 2019

North Bakken Expansion Project:
  • pipeline connector: natural gas connector from western North Dakota to interconnection point with Northern Border Pipeline
  • MDU's WBI Enercy, Inc
    • 67 miles of new pipeline 
    • 20-inch diameter
    • wag: at $1 million /mile = $67 million
    • MDU's press release: $220 million 
    • will start near Tioga, ND
    • new connection with NBP in McKenzie County, ND
  • Tioga is in Williams County
  • this means that the pipeline will have to cross the river
  • that probably explains the higher cost 
  • initial phase: 200 millio cfpd)
  • could expand to 375 million cfpd (65,000 boepd) if demand exists
  • note: WBI Energy plans to utilize the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's National Environmental Policy Act pre-filing process for the North Bakken Expansion Project and will begin that process by late in the first quarter of 2019.
From wiki:
Northern Border Pipeline is a natural gas pipeline which brings gas from Canada through Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa into the Chicago area. It is owned by TC PipeLines, LP and ONEOK Partners and is operated by TC PipeLines, LP . Its FERC code is 89.
Website and map here.


Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? -- January 25, 2019 -- The EIA: Never Mind

This is simply amazing.

One year ago -- repeating, one year ago, the EIA saw American crude oil production averaging just less than 12 million bopd in 2042 -- 24 years ago -- this year, the EIA says "Never mind."

The US will likely produce 14 million bopd in 2020 -- next year.



So, one year -- how far were those projections off-base? On the other hand we do know that the average global temperature will be 2.7 degrees warmer one hundred years from now. And according to Occasional-Cortex we have only twelve years to act.

Speaking of Occasional-Cortex, as a public service announcement /warning for readers in Iowa:


**********************
The Book Page

I can't say enough about The Campaigns of Alexander: The Landmark Arrian, edited by James Romm, c. 2010, soft cover, $21.

Unlike many books in which the appendices are unremarkable, the appendices in this book are incredible. Each appendix written by a different authority (most write more than one essay). All are very readable, and all are very short, running about three to four pages. I've not read much on Alexander the Great, but it seems I would be hard-pressed to find a better book on the subject than this book.

Homer, the Bible, Shakespeare. Definitely. Arrian? Perhaps.

The appendices:
  • Arrian's Sources and Reliability, James Romm, Bard College
  • Greek and Macedonian Ethnicity, Eugene N. Borza, The Pennsylvania State University
  • Alexander the Man (and God?), Richard Stoneman, University of Exeter
  • Alexander's Inner Circle, Waldemar Heckel, University of Calgary; James Romm, Bard College
  • Money and Finance in the Campaigns of Alexander, Frank L. Holt, University of Houston
  • The Persian Empire and Alexander, Richard Stoneman, University of Exeter
  • Alexander at Persepolis, Eugene N. Borza, The Pennsylvania State University
  • Alexander in Central Asia, Frank L. Holt, University of Houston
  • The Indian Campaign, Richard Stoneman, University of Exeter
  • Alexander's Policy of Perso-Macedonian Fusion, James Romm, Bard College
  • The Alexander Romance,  Richard Stoneman, University of Exeter
  • Alexander and the Greeks, James Romm, Bard College
  • Alexander's Geographic Notions, James Romm, Bard College
  • Alexander's Death: A Medical Analysis, Eugene N. Borza, The Pennsylvania State University
  • Alexander's Death: The Poisoning Rumors, A. B. Bosworth, Macquarie University
  • The Royal Macedonian Tombs at Aigeai, Eugene N. Borza, The Pennsylvania State University
  • Arrian's Life and Works, James Romm, Bard College 
  • Alexander's Army and Military Leadership

Go West, Young Woman! -- January 25, 2019

Re-posting.

US crude oil production to keep setting records until 2027: EIA -- link here. Data points:
  • US crude oil production will keep setting annual records until 2027
  • US crude oil production will remain higher than 14 million bpd through 2040
  • why? continuously growing shale production
  • the US has been a net energy importer since 1953, but continued growth in petroleum and natural gas exports results in the US becoming a net energy exporter by 2020 in all scenarios
Embedded in the link above is another link that takes you to an EIA pdf. I went through all eighty-three slides; most of the slides had more than one graphic (generally two). This was the one graphic that caught my attention:
Another interesting graphic:
Of all the regions, the most "diverse" is clearly that region identified as "Mountain." For me, it's a better graphic identifying major metropolitan areas rather than "regional identifiers."

 

Pad Drilling -- Update -- January 25, 2019

Re-posting. This is a must-read for those interested in the Bakken.

RBN Energy: part 2, will large-scale pad drilling buoy crude output?  An incredibly good article. I was surprised that the Bakken was not mentioned, unless I missed it.
When crude oil prices crashed in the second half of 2014 and 2015, producers survived by becoming leaner and more efficient. That transition included drastic reductions in the rates paid to services companies while wringing ever more oil and gas out of each well and, in the process, permanently altering the economics of drilling and completion. This year, producers are again facing a lower-price environment; since early October (2018), crude prices have dropped more than 30%. In the current, more conservative investment environment, can producers do it again? Can additional value be squeezed out with bigger well pads and longer laterals? Today, we continue a series exploring the benefits and risks of these highly concentrated and highly complicated operations. 
Earlier we explored the origins of pad drilling and the factors that catalyzed its widespread adoption across the oil patch. By splitting the substantial infrastructure, logistical, and rig-mobilization costs among multiple wells, pad drilling helped improve efficiency the last time crude prices dropped. That blog’s focus was on Northeast gas producers. Now we turn our attention to the crude-focused Permian. We’ll start with a look at a “mega-pad” with more than 60 wells and a couple of somewhat smaller pads, then conclude with a high-level analysis of the pros and cons of “going big.”
Archived. Episode 1 was also archived.
It seems the writer hints at the halo effect but not fully developed. 

Peak Oil? Peak Demand? Not Anytime Soon -- January 25, 2019

How cold does it get in North Dakota?


Three dog night. Decades ago I was visiting Regina. I mentioned to my hosts how cold it was. They said it was a "three-dog night." That goat in the video above: "one is the loneliest number." And, yes, I think I've watched that video a dozen times.


One Is The Loneliest Number, Three Dog Night

Davis Refinery: air permit upheld by district court. .

US crude oil production to keep setting records until 2027: EIA -- link here. Data points:
  • US crude oil production will keep setting annual records until 2027
  • US crude oil production will remain higher than 14 million bpd through 2040
  • why? continuously growing shale production
  • the US has been a net energy importer since 1953, but continued growth in petroleum and natural gas exports results in the US becoming a net energy exporter by 2020 in all scenarios
**************************************
Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today: Friday, January 25, 2019
  • 35034, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9H, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 30052, SI/NC, WPX, Good Voice 34-27HF, Spotted Horn, no production data,

Active rigs:

$53.191/25/201901/25/201801/25/201701/25/201601/25/2015
Active Rigs64563848157

RBN Energy: part 2, will large-scale pad drilling buoy crude output?  An incredibly good article. I was surprised that the Bakken was not mentioned, unless I missed it.
When crude oil prices crashed in the second half of 2014 and 2015, producers survived by becoming leaner and more efficient. That transition included drastic reductions in the rates paid to services companies while wringing ever more oil and gas out of each well and, in the process, permanently altering the economics of drilling and completion. This year, producers are again facing a lower-price environment; since early October (2018), crude prices have dropped more than 30%. In the current, more conservative investment environment, can producers do it again? Can additional value be squeezed out with bigger well pads and longer laterals? Today, we continue a series exploring the benefits and risks of these highly concentrated and highly complicated operations. 
Earlier we explored the origins of pad drilling and the factors that catalyzed its widespread adoption across the oil patch. By splitting the substantial infrastructure, logistical, and rig-mobilization costs among multiple wells, pad drilling helped improve efficiency the last time crude prices dropped. That blog’s focus was on Northeast gas producers. Now we turn our attention to the crude-focused Permian. We’ll start with a look at a “mega-pad” with more than 60 wells and a couple of somewhat smaller pads, then conclude with a high-level analysis of the pros and cons of “going big.”
Archived.