Wednesday, January 16, 2019

An EOG Well That Had Been Off Line Six Months Now Back On Line -- Austin 20-29H -- #17614 -- January 16, 2019

The well:
  • 17614, 1,595, EOG, Austin 20-29H, Parshall, t9/09; cum 789K 11/18; off line as of 5/18; back on line as of 11/18;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2018303984385627001820156313
BAKKEN10-20182670918120
BAKKEN9-201800380000
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-201800480000
BAKKEN6-2018100012120
BAKKEN5-2018211196125036179216208
BAKKEN4-2018301969190052628237313
BAKKEN3-20183119762044582694238559
BAKKEN2-2018281945186002440219420
BAKKEN1-201831213121382263823860

Most likely it's back on line now that two neighboring wells have been fracked:
  • 34551, conf, EOG, Austin 112-2919H, Parshall:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20187472598
10-2018370103

  • 34552, conf, EOG, Austin 414-2919H, Parshall:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2018218366829
10-2018912539

The WPX Lawrence Bull Wells In South Fork

The wells:
  • 34651, 3,499, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HD, South Fork, t12/18; cum --;
  • 34650, 2,847, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HC, South Fork, t12/18; cum --;
  • 34649, 2,176, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HY, South Fork, t12/18; cum --;
  • 34652, 2,685, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HZ, South Fork, t12/18; cum --;
The graphic:


This is what jumps out at me: all that open space.

Idle Chatter -- This Is Not An Investment Site -- January 16, 2019

Updates

Later, 7:01 p.m. CT: earnings -- from today --


From Chesto over at The Boston Globe, January 16, 2019:
Bank of America's fourth-quarter profit topped analysts' estimates, and its profit for the year was a record $28.15 billion.
Goldman Sachs beat estimates as a spike in revenue from investment banking offset declines in revenue from underwriting and trading.
Ford Motor warned that its fourth-quarter profit would fall short of estimates, and didn't provide a forecast for 2019.
Original Post

Before I get started, a huge shout-out to be the readers who really send me "good stuff" and seem to be able to ignore my political rants and stick to energy. This is one of those rambling posts I would hope no one reads. It has nothing to do with the Bakken.

As an investor I could not possibly be in a better mood. We're not out of the woods yet, but if that's the worst the bears could throw at us, we're in pretty good shape. I haven't followed the market in the last six weeks or so, but today I did take a look. Mostly because earnings season is upon us and I have one pesky reader who won't let me forget that. Like clockwork, he/she/it reminds me that Alcoa is always the first to lead off earnings.

I say "it" because there's a very strong possibility that the reader is a big, old, fluffy white cat who seems to provide better insights than Goldman Sachs. After being in the "market" since 1984, I can honestly say the "Kat" seems to have as much as "street cred" as any analyst that comes on the Jim Cramer show (I have not watched Cramer in two months or so, and have no plans to ever watch him again).

By the way, before I forget, Rush Limbaugh provided as good a summary today of Apple's "problems" as I've heard from any analyst. [I see that Rush "stole" that from The Telegraph.]

But I digress. Where was I? Oh, yeah, as an investor I could not possibly be in a better mood. We're not out of the woods yet, but if that's the worst the bears could throw at us, we're in pretty good shape.

Look at this: Alcoa swings to GAAp profit, sees an aluminum deficit, and an alumina surplus for 2019.
Shares of Alcoa Inc. rose in the extended session Wednesday after the company swung to a GAAP profit in the fourth quarter. Alcoa said it earned $43 million, or 23 cents a share, in the quarter, versus a loss of $196 million, or $1.06 a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted for one-time items, the company earned $125 million, or 66 cents a share, compared with $195 million, or $1.04 a share, a year ago. Revenue hit $3.3 billion, from $3.2 billion a year ago. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected adjusted earnings of 50 cents a share on sales of $3.3 billion. 
Tea leaves: we're going to see a lot of stock buybacks this earnings season. In addition, there will be no dividend surprises.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision based on what you see here or what you may think you may have seen here.

With regard to the Bakken, the "state of the Bakken (SOTB)," the only stock I'm following is NOG. I hold shares in other Bakken companies but the only company I look at periodically is NOG. I see NOG was up 4.4% today.

Also, I'm happy, politically: Nancy Pelosi's disinvite is quite extraordinary. "Disinviting" a sitting president.

Partly because she can't guarantee safety/security. Wow, to the best of my knowledge, the US Marines are still part of the US government.

But I digress.

Another reason I'm in a great mood: Alexa. Unlimited music for free. And unlimited premium music for $8/month. What's not to like.

I also have my 2018 taxes under control.

And, on top of all that, I learned today that our little town, Grapevine, TX, is breaking ground for a one of those rare 5-level stacked interchanges. If I didn't have driving responsibilities fothe granddaughters, I would see a job with this 2.5-year project which I think will stretch to five years. This is a a huge, huge project. It will transform Grapevine. At this wiki site, scroll down to the "Texas-style stack" or the "five-level stack." I assume iHop will soon have a "Texas-style stack." If not, McDonald's needs to grab that pancake moniker and trademark, especially after losing a trademark battle to "Supermac's."

I'm also happy because another book came in the mail today: The Roman Empire and the Indian Ocean: The Ancient World Economy & The Kingdoms of Africa, Arabia & India, Raoul McLaughlin, c. 2014, 2018. I'm particularly interested in the third chapter: "Incense: A Unique Product."

2.5 years from now our driving responsibilities should be coming to an end.

As soon as my driving responsibilities come to an end, I will spend some time in Williston, ND (the Bakken); Provincetown, Cape Cod, MA (best martinis in the US served by the best waiters in the world); and, then Lake Flathead, MT, until Laura moves me into a nursing home. By then, maybe I will have learned how to make my own Provinctown-martini.

Global Warming To Smack Sacramento -- Rare Blizzard Warning Issued -- January 16, 2019

Before we get to Sacramento, this screenshot. I believe "blue" is associated with "cold." Just a hunch.


Remind me again about global warming. I've lost that bubble.

*********************************
Sacramento

Note to self: memo to Patrick Kennedy. Is he still arranging for free oil from Venezuela for his constituents in Massachusetts. Seems "soooo yesterday."




Active Rigs At 68; Five New Permits; Sixteen Permits Renewed; Eleven DUCs Completed -- January 16, 2019

John C. Bogle, founder of Vanguard, dies at age 89. In a way, he seemed liked a second father to me. Wow, so sad. What a great legacy.

Bruin E&P Operating, LLC: incredibly exciting, right now. It looks like they are laser-focused on the Bakken, and hitting on all cylinders, as they say. 

Active rigs:

$52.401/16/201901/16/201801/16/201701/16/201601/16/2015
Active Rigs68573649157

Five new permits:
  • Operators: Bruin (3); Newfield, Liberty Resources
  • Fields: Spotted Horn (McKenzie), White Earth (Mountrail), Siverston (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Bruin E&P Operating has permits for yet another 3-well Fort Berthold pad, this one in lot 3, section 3-150-94; Liberty Resources has a permit for a Tucson well in White Earth, section 25-158-94; and, Newfield has a permit for a Goliath well in Siveston, in lot 2, section 5-150-98; let's hope it's a "giant" of a well;
Sixteen permits renewed:
  • EOG (7): six Clarks Creek permits in McKenzie County; one Parshall permit in Mountrail County
  • BR (4): a CCU Boxcar, a CCU Audubon, a CCU Golden Creek, and a CCU Burner permit, all in Dunn County
  • CLR (2): two Entzel permits in Dunn County
  • Whiting (2): a Ray permit and a Wold permit, the former in Mountrail County, the latter in McKenzie County
  • Bruin: one Storhaug permit in Williams County
Eleven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 33016, 3,031, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-9, Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum --;
  • 33018, 4,180, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-11, Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum --;
  • 34651, 3,499, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HD, South Fork, t12/18; cum --;
  • 34650, 2,847, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HC, South Fork, t12/18; cum --;
  • 34649, 2,176, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HY, South Fork, t12/18; cum --;
  • 34652, 2,685, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HZ, South Fork, t12/18; cum --;
  • 35221, 1,115, Kraken Operating, Goodman LE 36-25 1H, Painted Woods, t12/18; cum --;
  • 35103, 791, Kraken Operating, Goodman 36-25 5H, Squires, t12/18; cum --'
  • 34869, 1,196, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-11-2H, Wolf Bay, t10/18; cum 18K 11/18;
  • 34868, 932, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-11-2H-5, Wolf Bay, t11/18; cum 24K 11/18;
  • 33017, 3,844, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-10, t12.18; cum --;

******************************
ISO New England

Wow, I have not seen this in awhile. Electricity provided to the grid by coal jumped to 4% today; renewable energy down to as low as 9% today but back to 11% now. Electricity appears to have averaged well above $75/MW since midnight early this morning.

Later: after posting that, I received this note from someone who really, really follows this very, very closely.
Last night the Pilgrim nuke plant in Massachusetts started dropping output and now, according to the nrc.gov site, is only operating at 26% capacity.

That should stress the region's generating ability as this cold front moves in.

In a somewhat related vein, the Vineyard Wind project is expected to announce a very minimal compensation package to Rhode Island fishermen for the loss of fishing grounds due to their proposed offshore wind farm.

The meeting to announce the granting/withholding of the necessary permit by the Coastal Resource Council has again been postponed; the next meeting has now been moved to January 29.
****************************************
Gasoline Demand

Link here.


More Evidence That Folks Are Not Concerned About Global Warming -- January 16, 2019; BC Has Fallen Off The Rails When It Comes To Controlling Carbon Emissions; Geico Rock Award Nominee For 2019

When talking about the environment, one doesn't often see the phrase, "... has fallen off the rails." 

From oilprice:
The carbon footprint of British Columbia is growing and has been growing for the last eight years despite a strong environmentalist lobby.
The Global and Mail quotes a spokesman for the Ministry of Environment as saying British Columbia has fallen off the rails leading to the achievement of its carbon emission reduction target for 2030.

The reason for this failure has, however, nothing to do with the oil industry as such. It’s simply a question of more people driving more cars. [Well, that sort of has something to do with the oil industry.]

“We’re still living in a fossil-fuel-based economy, and we’ve experienced economic and population growth,” the Globe and Mail quoted a Simon Fraser University researcher, Mark Jaccard, as saying. “More people are driving more cars, and unless we make a significant leap towards electric vehicles, these emissions will continue to rise.”

British Columbia had a target of cutting carbon emissions by 33 percent from 2007 levels to 2020. However, the new figures reveal the province has only succeeded in cutting emissions by 2.2 percent from 2007 levels, which means the 2020 target will be pretty much unattainable unless a radical change in driving habits takes place.
Of course, it could have been much worse. Imagine if BC had actually allowed all those pipelines.

One wonders if all those faux environmentalists driving to their protest sites needed more cars? 

First nominee for the Geico Rock Award for 2019: Mark Jaccard for noting that "we are still living in a fossil-fuel-based economy."

***************************
A Really, Really Important Question

We just spent close to ten days in the Los Alamos area of northeastern New Mexico. We saw the video on the Los Alamos laboratory. They are doing some great work there, but a lot of it certainly seemed to be "make work" projects to ensure that the US has a stable of nuclear engineers going forward.

Oilprice has an op-ed today asking whether the US can keep its nuclear industry afloat? That's a very, very good question. In addition, there's this article: France may be attempting the impossible: replacing its aging nuclear power plants with inefficient, costly, and non-dispatchable solar/wind energy projects. What will France do when (not "if") this does not work out? They will end up doing what Germany is doing: burn more coal (and wood chips from South Carolina, USA).

*********************************
Millennials Challenged

 This was a link over at Drudge today.
Suggestion: unplug the Amazon product. There is a YouTube video that has instructions on how to unplug an electrical appliance.

***************************************
Be Afraid, Very Afraid

From the poll:
Though just one-in-three voters have a favorable opinion of freshman Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, if she were old enough to run for president in 2020, she’d give President Trump a run for his money.

Weekly Petroleum Report -- US -- EIA -- January 16, 2019

Updates

Later, 3:54 p.m. CT: see first comment and this link -- https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRSTUS1&f=W.  

Original Post 

The EIA weekly petroleum report is scheduled to be released today. Earlier, the EIA said their reports would not be delayed due to the partial government shutdown.

Link here.

Weekly US petroleum report, EIA:
  • US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.7 million bbls
  • WTI upon the news: up 9 cents, at $52.20 
  • US crude oil inventories: now at 437.1 million bbls
  • US crude oil inventories: now 8% above the 5-year average -- and remember, the 5-year average continues to increase; the Saudi surge, 2014 - 2016 certainly re-set the numbers
  • refiners are operating at a 94.6% capacity; trending lower
  • motor gasoline inventories about 6% above the 5-year average
  • distillate fuel product supplied was down almost 9% from the same period last year
  • jet fuel supplied was down almost 6% compared with same four-week period last year
Now, five minutes later, the price of WTI has turned red, down four cents. Movers and shakers apparently anticipated the report. Regardless of the draw (almost 3 million bbls) the fact that crude oil in storage, on a percentage basis, has actually increased over the past few weeks, is certainly disturbing for those hoping for a bull market in oil.

Re-balancing to 400 million bbls in storage:

Week
Date
Change w-o-w
In Storage
Weeks to RB to 350 Million Bbls
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
N/A
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
N/A
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
N/A
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Never at this rate
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Never at this rate
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Never at this rate
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Never at this rate
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
A long, long time
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Won’t happen in my life time

4Q18 Earnings

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.



Earnings for the current quarter will be reported at this page; the link will be on the sidebar at the right, under "Earnings Central." When we start to see earnings reports for any quarter, the "Earnings Central" link is moved to the top of the sidebar until the earnings season is over.

I don't have time to check/update earnings on all companies that might interest me or readers.

Much of this information is done in haste. I assume there are factual and typographical errors. It is for my personal use only. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Note: by 4Q16 I had lost a lot of interest in tracking earnings. I'm not sure where I will go with this page. In fact, there are more and more days when ... no, I won't go there. 



CLR: another case of over-promising, under-delivering? Misses on both the top line and the bottom line. Shares down almost 7% after the earnings release.

MDU: must have met the "whisper number." MDU shares flat even after announcing earnings that missed forecasts.

Big Oil: best results in years.

BP: exceeds expectations. And here. Best profit in five years. That includes years in which WTI was trading close to $100 / bbl.

Valero: both earnings and revenue beat forecasts.

Facebook: surges; headline said the company "smashed" forecasts.

GE: huge miss on earnings -- but shares surging, according to the headline; apparently GE shares are up 20% year-to-date

CVX: will build a million-bopd pipeline in the Permian; at least I think that's what I saw

M/C: huge earnings report according to the headline.

CVX: will buy Brazilian refinery along US coast; will pay $350 million for the Petrobras refinery

Shell: full-year profits surges to four-year highs; beats expectations. [Note: I don't often do this, but I am so thrilled with myself -- LOL -- I can't resist -- Shell was one of two energy companies I started buying about one year ago and kept accumulating.] Shell pledges to do it all. Archived.

COP: link here. Huge earnings report. On the radio: "COP hit is out of the ballpark." Slides here.

XOM: profits tops estimates. Nothing but good news for ExxonMobil today. Earlier it was reported that Rystad Energy named ExxonMobil the oil, gas explorer of 2018. Back to its earnings:

  • excluding the impacts of tax reform, revenues from to $6.4 billion from $3.73 billion a year ago
  • production: 4 million bopd
  • the Permian: up 90% over one year ago (considering its production there was minimal, this was not a tough metric to beat)
  • EPS: $1.41 vs $1.08 forecast
Hess: investors happy with report; narrows loss

Shell: reports January 31, 2019. Analysts expect a huge report. If they miss ....

IBM: Tuesday after the close, IBM reported fourth-quarter results that beat EPS and revenue estimates, with revenue down 3.5% year-on-year. Last year, the company broke a nearly six-year streak of declining revenue. Analysts had expected Q4 to continue the trend. Surprise! IBM is up nearly eight percentage points Wednesday morning.

SLB: beat/meet; stock surges; 36 cents vs 36 cents forecast; revenues of $8.18 billion vs expectations of $8.06 billion.

HAL: Halliburton posted adjusted income from continuing operations of $0.41 per diluted share for the fourth quarter of 2018, excluding a tax benefit related to a strategic change in the company’s corporate structure. The $0.41 earnings per share compares to an analyst consensus estimate of $0.37. For the full year 2018, Halliburton’s total revenue rose by 16 percent on the year to $24.0 billion. Revenue for 4Q18: $5.94 billion, better than expected.


Netflix: misses on revenues; $4.19 billion vs $4.21 billion; but bottom line, earnings of 30 cents/share easily beat 24 cents expected. Guidance was really bad: 56 cents vs estimates of 85 cents for 1Q19. 

Morgan Stanley: forecast for good news. Apparently not so good; stock drops. Posted January 17, 2019.

Alcoa: Look at this: Alcoa swings to GAAp profit, sees an aluminum deficit, and an alumina surplus for 2019.
Shares of Alcoa Inc. rose in the extended session Wednesday after the company swung to a GAAP profit in the fourth quarter. Alcoa said it earned $43 million, or 23 cents a share, in the quarter, versus a loss of $196 million, or $1.06 a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted for one-time items, the company earned $125 million, or 66 cents a share, compared with $195 million, or $1.04 a share, a year ago. Revenue hit $3.3 billion, from $3.2 billion a year ago. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected adjusted earnings of 50 cents a share on sales of $3.3 billion.
Banks: From Chesto over at The Boston Globe, January 16, 2019:
Bank of America's fourth-quarter profit topped analysts' estimates, and its profit for the year was a record $28.15 billion.
Goldman Sachs beat estimates as a spike in revenue from investment banking offset declines in revenue from underwriting and trading.
Ford Motor warned that its fourth-quarter profit would fall short of estimates, and didn't provide a forecast for 2019.

Idle Rambling -- Bruin -- Antelope-Sanish -- January 16, 2019

This post will not be updated. Wells mentioned on this page will be tracked elsewhere.

Bruin E&P Operating, LLC, which acquired HRC (Halcon) some time ago (see Bakken operators at the tabs above) is really, really exciting. Something is clearly going on.

I've been updating IPs and cumulative production numbers for wells completed in the last couple of years and there is a huge gap between what "went before" and what Bruin is doing now with their Fort Berthold Antelope-Sanish wells. A long, long time ago, Lynn Helms said that Three Forks wells would be better than middle Bakken wells and Bruin certainly seems to be proving the case.

As for cost: if Bruin is doing what EOG is doing, it is all the more remarkable. According to EOG, it cost them upwards of $10 million to drill/complete a Bakken well in 2012; now, it is costing EOG less than $5 million to bring a Bakken well to production. There are, of course, all kinds of ways to figure the costs, so I'm always wary of these numbers, but, for reasons discussed at length in earlier posts, it is very, very clear that costs in the Bakken for operators have come way down.

Today, as an example of what Bruin has been and will be reporting, this well comes off the confidential list today:
  • 31777, conf, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-11H, Antelope-Sanish:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20182705728756
10-20183604835588
9-20181170612122
8-20186198843584
7-2018224912576

It's hard to believe, but Bruin has reported even better wells than this one in the same oil field.

This is what the immediate area looks like today:


January 16, 2019 -- Day 26 Of The Shelosi-Trump Partial Government Shutdown

Fantastic! I was wondering how President Trump would handle this situation -- the state of the union address while there is a partial government shutdown. Sometime ago I mentioned that there were several key dates with regard to the shutdown. One of the key dates was the date of the SOTU address. It was hard to say what Trump would do; it's still hard to say. But now that he has Shelosi lecturing him on when to give the SOTU address (or how to deliver it) it now puts the whole thing into Shelosi's lap. She has said she is now an equal to the president. Now she is afraid to meet him one-on-one in her own home, the US House of Representatives. Not a good host. LOL. The (classical) Greeks would not have understood. Nor would the nomadic Arabs. Being a gracious and good host was paramount in "classical" history. By the way, her statements now assume/assure the partial shutdown will continue at least through January 22.

Let them eat cake! I wonder how this would have played out under an Obama/Clinton presidency. We will never know. But apparently $6 billion in Puerto Rico bonds could soon become (relatively) worthless. I don't follow this story at all. The link is here.

The partial government shutdown. Most concerning? Until yesterday, the Drudge headlines on the shutdown were starting to disappear. Then, late yesterday/this morning, sides seem farther apart than ever. No headlines are much, much more concerning than headlines. Once the headlines start disappearing, it means folks have grown tired/lost interest in the subject. Or so it would seem. We'll see.

IRS agents being recalled. Not-ready-for-prime-time --
They say the logjam created by the southern border issues will put the immigration services and courts four or five years behind in keeping up with citizenship applications.
So all those folks who followed the law, and patiently went through the citizenship process -- generally takes a decade -- are now looking at an even longer wait -- another four or five years on top of the original ten. If Congress doesn't work with the President on the "Dreamers" this year, one can pretty much assume the "Dreamers" issue is dead. Time alone would kill any prospects of a path to citizenship.
I remember my first experience with the federal government -- graduate school scholarship. The process hit an obstacle early on causing a four-month delay. A full-year delay and my life would have been completely different. Perhaps better; perhaps worse; I will never know.
But for the "Dreamers" -- already living with an undetermined timeline -- it seems the southern border issue can only prolong the pain. Ironically, the "Dreamers" are for the most part college educated and likely to be US taxpayers (anecdotal/some will disagree) whereas the illegal immigrants? Perhaps not so much.

I think the IRS was worried about the same problem: the logjam. The vast majority of returns come in well before April, and if the IRS started to get behind, it would have been overwhelming. Something tells me the IRS is not going to have a lot of time to do audits for the next few years.
Quiet secession. The US Civil War was fought over the secession of the "southern states." That was a "hard" secession. Likewise, Brexit would be a "hard" secession from the EU. It looks like California will do a "soft" secession. It will take the US Supreme Court to intervene to keep California from seceding from the Union.

Sophia: Reading The Mornings News -- Taos, New Mexico -- Christmas, 2018

Reading the morning news at the WorldMark Taos. The WorldMark is at the north end of the city, a bit difficult to find despite being so huge. It is set back from the main highway, with entrances through the "museum entrance."
















Sophia was on the second floor, overlooking the lobby:


The ceiling beams are called vigas

Eight Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; Active Rigs At 68 In North Dakota -- January 16, 2019

Williston High School band is headed for Washington, DC, for the July 4th parade!

ISO New England: spiking. The first spike was just before midnight last night when the spot price of electricity went slightly over $150/MW. Now this morning, it hit $100/MW. Coal is now providing 2% of needed power. Natural gas is at 52% and renewable energy is less than 10%. Hydroelectricity is just starting its typical move up; that will drive the price. 

The was is won! The war against OPEC price gouging is over. The US won. -- Investor's Business Daily.
The situation began to change in 2008, when advances in directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing, commonly called "fracking," technologies unlocked oil and natural gas resources that had been too difficult and too expensive to recover. After a decade of increasing production, U.S. energy producers in 2018 finally topped our previous record production that occurred in 1970.
API: weekly crude inventories, dropped only 650,000 bbls; forecast: the draw would be at least 2.5 million bbls. My hunch: today's EIA figures will be a lot different than what the API reported yesterday.

The Amad: can be tracked here. It is now just northeast of the Lesser Antilles.

Brexit: a huge, huge lesson for any country that wants to leave. Never gonna happen. Brussels is now firmly in control. The bureaucrats run the lives of all Europeans. Say goodbye to free-market capitalism.

Crisis! What crisis? IRS recalling 46,000 workers to handle tax returns. I wonder if they are getting paid. If so, it speaks volumes.

Silver lining? As more and more TSA workers call in sick, the more efficient airlines/screeners will have to become. When this is all over, it's always possible the whole process will be much improved. I remember the day when the screening process in Portland, OR, was incredibly efficient. Long story for another day.  But the fact that the government is "recalling" IRS agents but at the same time seeming to turn a blind eye to the TSA issue suggests something is going on behind the scenes.

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

A bunch of wells coming off the confidential list today -- Wednesday, January 16, 2019
  • 34652, SI/NC, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HZ, South Fork, no production data,
  • 34492, 1,287, Nine Point Energy, Hovde 150-100-6-7-3H, 60 stages; 10 million lbs, Spring Creek, t8/18; cum 106K 11/18;
  • 34491, 1,126, Nine Point Energy, Hovde 150-100-6-7-4H, 60 stages, 12 million lbs, Spring Creek, t7/18; cum 103K 11/18;
  • 34490, 1,652, Nine Point Energy, Hovde 150-100-6-7-13H, 60 stages; 10 million lbs, Rawson, t7/18; cum 108K 11/18;
  • 33644, 1,744, CLR, Omlid 6-19H, Elidah, t11/18; cum 11,509 bbls after 9 days, extrapolates to 38K for 30 days;
  • 32844, 360, BR, Remington-Lovaas 4C UTFH-ULW, Blue Buttes, t11/18; cum --;
  • 32431, 4,215, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-13H, 55 stages, 14.5 million lbs, Antelope-Sanish, t7/18; cum 175K 11/18;
  • 31777, 3,376, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-11H, 55 stages; 14.3 million lbs, Antelope-Sanish, t7/18; cum 160K 11/18;
Active rigs:

$51.681/16/201901/16/201801/16/201701/16/201601/16/2015
Active Rigs68573649157

RBN Energy: Mexico's pipeline theft crackdown inflicts pain on US gasoline suppliers.
With PetrĂ³leos Mexicanos’ (Pemex) refineries struggling to operate at more than 30% of total capacity, gasoline pumps across Mexico are more likely to be filling up tanks with fuel imported from the U.S. than with domestic supply. This arrangement works well for U.S. refiners, who are running close to flat-out and depending on export volumes to clear the market. But now, the Mexican government has shut a number of refined products pipelines to prevent illegal tapping, and that’s had two consequences:  widespread fuel shortages among Mexican consumers and a logjam of American supplies waiting to come into Mexico’s ports. Today, we explain the opportunities and risks posed to U.S. refiners that have ramped up their involvement with — and dependence on — the Mexican market. 
Mexico’s refining sector is in dire straits. As of November 2018, only one of its six refineries was operating at more than half of its nameplate capacity, two weren’t running at all and the remaining three were chugging along at between 32% and 44% of their capacities. The problems aren’t new; Mexico’s refinery utilization rates have collapsed in the past couple of years. That’s in large part due to operational inefficiencies that have made refining less than economical there. Additionally, as we have discussed at length, the quantity and quality of Mexico’s crude output have exacerbated those problems. The country’s crude production in November 2018 was 40% lower than a decade prior. And the composition of Mexico’s crude has been getting heavier — that is, lower in API gravity — with nearly 61% of total output categorized as “heavy” by Pemex. Figure 1 shows gasoline output (blue line) has fallen below 300 Mb/d for much of the past two years. Diesel production (red line) hasn’t surpassed 200 Mb/d since March 2017.