Saturday, January 12, 2019

Norway -- January 12, 2019

Earlier this week I posted:
Could this be adding to the bullish trend for oil? Link here to the Bloomberg story.
Norway’s oil regulator reduced its forecast for production this year, predicting crude output could drop to the lowest in three decades before recovering in 2020.
Oil output of 82.2 million cubic meters, or 1.42 million barrels a day, would be the lowest since 1988.
The forecast compares to actual production of 86.2 million last year, and is down from an earlier estimate of 87.2 million.
Oil output was affected by new developments becoming more complex than anticipated and that fewer than expected wells have been drilled.
Delays and issues on new projects in 2018 would continue to affect output this year, forcing a reduction in the production forecast.
Doesn't amount to a hill of beans in the big scheme of things, but it is what it is.  
Back on March 31, 2016, I noted that Norway was going to have some problems.

This is the banner headline over at oilprice. Nothing new, but it does get your attention:


I still don't think it amounts to a hill of beans in the big scheme of things -- as far as global supply goes -- but it is a big story for Norway. Which will last about ... oh, maybe 12 months. LOL.

I could care / couldn't care less about the subject matter, but I am really, really impressed with the quality of this photograph taken with an old model iPhone by four-year-old granddaughter, Sophia:

This Is What The Bakken Is All About -- January 12, 0219

The well:
  • 23993, 3,888, Equinor/Statoil/BEXP, Johnston 7-6 7H, Banks, t10/13; cum 460K 11/18; erratic production profile; inactive; back on status 2/17; full production profile here;
According to FracFocus this well has not been re-fracked, but the numbers suggest it must have been. In addition, the NDIC has no sundry forms suggesting this well was re-fracked. It's last sundry form was dated September 26, 2018, to change the operator name from Statoil to Equinor. The last sundry form before that was dated February 7, 2013. Whether it was re-fracked or not (and it appears not to have been re-fracked) doesn't matter to those with minerals in this well -- I doubt most care what caused the jump in production.

Selected production profile:
BAKKEN1-201831103531027210786347683472543
BAKKEN12-201731114321134812589448794478594
BAKKEN11-20172310632108941202632723283354386
BAKKEN10-2017231019010277780126069234562597
BAKKEN9-201730144941447870113914638260856
BAKKEN8-20173119815195879791485723777310783
BAKKEN7-2017231152511396956424432232161196
BAKKEN6-20172717931175681239639472372282233
BAKKEN5-2017120160029272
BAKKEN4-20172819464201041303041440354375974
BAKKEN3-20173125498248731475149726464123283
BAKKEN2-2017193028286615812813027598513
BAKKEN1-20170000000
BAKKEN12-20160030000
BAKKEN11-201630376035492780
BAKKEN10-20167604578280667976193601
BAKKEN9-20160070000
BAKKEN8-20163898272320212773
BAKKEN7-20160000000
BAKKEN6-20160010000
BAKKEN5-20160000000
BAKKEN4-2016139380000
BAKKEN3-2016001250000
BAKKEN2-201691539163773353494875468
BAKKEN1-20162252415074231114878106664202
BAKKEN12-20151921172253167414390143702

Far Beyond The Sun, Yngwie Malmsteen

This Is What The Bakken Is All About -- January 12, 2019

The well:
  • 23992, 5,417, Statoil, Beaux 18-19 7H, Banks, t8/13; cum 397K 11/18; erratic; went IA 12/16; back on line 8/17;
Full profile here

Not re-fracked. Selected production profile here, for newbies, note that this well went from 500 bbls/month to over 16,000 bbls/month:
BAKKEN4-20183088648757819627880277630
BAKKEN3-201830902188546766209722091338
BAKKEN2-2018288144843958921904818436584
BAKKEN1-2018311301213106104252935029113206
BAKKEN12-2017311507514983787232181309431207
BAKKEN11-2017301679217095890235704321463528
BAKKEN10-2017126296544958471065195841061
BAKKEN9-2017002200000
BAKKEN8-20173187389211051112109517
BAKKEN7-2017123904421317538
BAKKEN6-20170000000
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-201700960000
BAKKEN12-20164119914452794332233200
BAKKEN11-2016305383437549109610960
BAKKEN10-201631607521343614140
BAKKEN9-20163033837140043893890

Nothing Special About This Well -- Surrounded By Lots Of Activity Over The Years -- WPX, Elk, #18794

It's hard to believe that I noted that this was a well to watch back in 2009

The well:
  • 18794, 262, WPX, Elk 16-21H, Van Hook, t5/11; cum 640K 11/18; I did not check but unlikely that this well has been re-fracked; full production here
    • crude oil: 639,921
    • mcf: 398,155 mcf = 66,348 boe
  • total: 706,269 boe
Selected production profile:
BAKKEN4-201430775579933208578542991134
BAKKEN3-20143179927535376055094584548
BAKKEN2-20142855015436326841213334450
BAKKEN1-20143181988088567755744577635
BAKKEN12-201331810678205549527934811536
BAKKEN11-20133010829107648765765913906186
BAKKEN10-20133157286276143238683165455
BAKKEN9-20133075797397173847643625806
BAKKEN8-201331850984562144506647530
BAKKEN7-201331780680141862486044780
BAKKEN6-201330733871972270474143810
BAKKEN5-201331810382133160469943310
BAKKEN4-2013253721328835357356510
BAKKEN3-201331583259611247326530420

A Huge QEP Tipi V Well -- January 12, 2019

Wow, it never quits.

Look at this QEP Tipi V wells.

This post will not be updated. The QEP Tipi V wells are tracked here.

The well:
  • 32497, 4,780, QEP, Tipi V 13-12-7-18LL, Spotted Horn, t6/18; cum 205K 11/18; 
Full production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2018301808618066936027717258991070
BAKKEN10-20183122880228281105637008329853170
BAKKEN9-20183022033220431520635260314913095
BAKKEN8-20182831203316422370755348502674395
BAKKEN7-20183152620525283336882683735348434
BAKKEN6-201828583555781734974815965205329163
BAKKEN5-20182003912921005260
BAKKEN4-20180000000

  • 32492, PNC, QEP, Tipi V 2-13-12T2H,
  • 32493, PNC, QEP, Tipi V 2-13-12BH,
  • 32494, 722, QEP, Tipi V 1-13-12TH, Spotted Horn, t6/18; cum --
  • 32495, 2,599, QEP, Tipi V 1-13-12BH, Spotted Horn, t6/18; cum --
  • 32496, 1,755, QEP, Tipi V 1-13-12T2H, Spotted Horn, t6/18; cum --

North Dakota Loess As A Potential Microproppant -- January 12, 2019

This link will probably load as a pdf on your desktop.

Loess: rhymes with "bus."

Where "small sand" might be too big for use as a proppant in some areas of the Bakken, perhaps a microproppant like loess might work.

From the linked article:
Some proppant manufacturers have introduced new microproppants with grain sizes equivalent to that of a human hair and with the consistency of rock flour.
Sediment particle sizes in this range fall into the silt size category, which is generally defined as sedimentary particles sized between 0.0625 to 0.0039 millimeters.
Silt is very common throughout the sedimentary surface geology of North Dakota and may be found as a component of all of the surficially exposed materials across the state including the glacial sediments found across most of North Dakota, within the individual sedimentary siltstone bedrock layers in southwestern North Dakota, or when transported and deposited by the wind as loess deposits, which can be found in varying thickness across the entire state.
Wow, think about that. 0.0039 mm. Take out a standard ruler and note how "thick" one millimeter is. Not divide that into "10-thousandths." That's incredibly fine sand. 

Right now, the natural sand being used is:
  • 100-mesh
  • small
  • medium
  • large 
From this site:


This may load as a pdf on your desktop, 100 mesh.

Mesh size at this link:



Random Update Of An Equinor Skarston Well In Banks Oil Field -- January 12, 2019

Full production profile at this post.

As of 11/18, this well was not re-fracked according to FracFocus. This well is a singleton just north of an 8-well Skarston pad.

The well:
  • 21644, 3,235, Equinor, Skarston1-12 1H, Banks, t9/12; cum 321K 11/18;
Selected production profile:
BAKKEN7-20183153905363378573766699178
BAKKEN6-2018306500640944059066845876
BAKKEN5-2018284677479639464067376736
BAKKEN4-20182053645069328867616097317
BAKKEN3-2018008260000
BAKKEN2-201824101669700694734257308032037
BAKKEN1-20181995159597578529831273981064
BAKKEN12-20173122251223931096353722458116096
BAKKEN11-20171897259141457117537158861025
BAKKEN10-20170000000

BAKKEN11-20140000000
BAKKEN10-20140000000
BAKKEN9-20140000000
BAKKEN8-201418228831379309093902766
BAKKEN7-20143156205322198717423154261997
BAKKEN6-20143047964417201717602158721730
BAKKEN5-20143158966560240720696169193777
BAKKEN4-20143054734892253319218118607358


Wasn't Nabors A High-Flyer Last Year? -- January 12, 2019

I don't know. I'm not following the market.

From Bloomberg via Rigzone:
One of the oil industry's highest-paid executives is taking a pay cut as his company braces for possibly difficult times ahead after its stock plunged last year.

Nabors Industries Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Anthony Petrello agreed to forfeit $4 million in restricted stock , in exchange for a symbolic award worth $1,500.
The CEO’s salary is also dropping 10 percent this year to $1.58 million.

Shares of Nabors, the world’s largest owner of onshore drilling rigs, tumbled 71 percent last year, the third-worst performance in the 15-company Philadelphia Oil Services Index. The firm is more exposed than rivals to international markets, which have lagged behind the U.S. in recovering from the worst crude crash in a generation four years ago.

“It’s just recognizing we could be in for a rough patch, we may have to take some actions to tighten the belt, and the first belt we’re going to tighten is on the executive officers,” said Nabors spokesman Dennis Smith. “The top guy shouldn’t be immune.”

The recent announcement by Saudi Arabia to curtail output in light of lower oil prices could dampen activity for companies working there, including Nabors.

It’s unclear if the pay cuts will be enough to satisfy investors. The stock is down about 86 percent since Petrello, 64, became CEO in October 2011, far worse than drillers Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. and Helmerich & Payne Inc. Over that period, he’s taken home $133.6 million, counting cash compensation, perks, vested stock awards and exercised options. That’s more than double what the two rivals paid its top leaders.
Investors have voiced discontent with the firm’s pay practices and governance. Since 2011, Nabors has received 42 percent support on average in its annual advisory vote on executive compensation, and shareholders have repeatedly withheld votes for directors. Support levels on pay below 80 percent are rare at publicly traded U.S. firms.
I assume investors can always invest elsewhere.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, travel, financial, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

T+67 -- January 12, 2019 -- Megyn Walks Away With Full $69 Million

For a mix of some great wildlife photography in New Mexico and global warming politics, this is a nice site to visit today:
******************************************
Nice Work If You Can Get It

From GQ:
Anyway, the joke is still on NBC because the network has paid out the remaining half of Kelly's contract, meaning she's walked away with a total of $69 million for her year and a half of work.
She needs to send a "thank you" letter to President Trump. 

******************************
I Want Megyn's Job When I Grow Up


Week 2: January 6, 2019 -- January 12, 2019

The biggest story last week, of course, was all the attention the media gave the "partial shutdown of the US government." Had it not been reported, the "partial shutdown" would not have been noticed by most Americans. Some "not-ready-for-prime-time" observations at this post.

The biggest sports story last week: NDSU wins its 7th FCS championship

The most under-reported international story last week: the fuel shortage in Mexico. 

The biggest energy story, of course, was the "return of the bull market for oil" -- although it could be short-lived. But, in round numbers, WTI went from $45 to $52 in the space of a week or thereabouts. That may not be entirely accurate but that was my "feeling."

The biggest energy story in the Bakken was the huge wells that are now being reported. They are truly, truly huge. If there is any doubt, look at "record IPs in the Bakken," and scroll up from the bottom. In 2012, wells like this one were rare:
Whiting said this was a record TFS well at the time, early 2012, file #20526, Smith 34-12TFH, 2,446, 102K in first 4.5 months.
Now? That is so hum-drum.

Most recently:
  • January 11, 2019
    • 31774, 5,058, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-15H, 4 sections, 55 stages; 14.4 million lbs, Antelope-Sanish; a staggering well; t7/18; cum 294K 11/18;
  • January 6, 2019
    • 31774, conf, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-15H, Antelope-Sanish; a staggering well;
  • January 4, 2019
    • 34668, 6,640, MRO, Drake 44-16H, Jim Creek, t11/18; cum 41K over 20 days which extrapolates to 62K over 30 days; #17999; #17374;
    • 34666, 6,012, MRO, Northrop 34-16H, Jim Creek, t11/18; cum 34K over 23 days;
      #17999; #17374;
    • 34892, 5,851, MRO, Gloria 24-16H, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 57K over 38 days; #17999; #17374;
    • 34667, 5,713, MRO, Veddy 44-16H, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 90K over 38 days --
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
  • Watford City approves school bond issue
  • Williston, in Williams County, the wealthiest county in North Dakota, failed to approve the school bond issue -- so  much for "good neighbor attitude" in Williston
  • North Dakota legislature considering raising speed limits: to 80 mph on interstates; 75 mph on other divided highways, in line with states like Texas
  • Legacy Fund: ‘Numbers game’ is about more than money -- Crosby Journal 
  • Lawmakers set early revenue figures: Lower oil, gas tax -- Fargo Forum
  • Judge endorses water permit for Davis Refinery despite opposition -- Associated Press
  • Regulators: Dakota Access company complied with settlement -- Associated Press
  • Two years after Standing Rock encampment, scars of the protest remain -- Inside Sources
Bakken operations
Random update of the MRO Arkin well; low volume proppant
A Bruin Fort Berhold well that produced 350K boe in less than five months
MRO and Bruin are competing for bragging rights
EOG reports three huge Clarks Creek wells

Fracking
Antelope-Sanish will be a great field for re-fracks
Whitting: Generation 4.0 fracking completions
Fracking: completion strategies

Bakken economy
Williams County: wealthiest county in North Dakota; but Williston won't approve school bond issue