Friday, January 11, 2019

Whiting With Two New Permits -- January 11, 2019

Active rigs:

$51.741/11/201901/11/201801/11/201701/11/201601/11/2015
Active Rigs67543655167

Two new permits:
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Fields: Sanish (Mountrail); Pembroke (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Whiting has a permit for 33-154-91; and a permits for 20-149-98;
    • Wells that are in that Sanish section, 33-154-91, that drilling unit:
      • 18298, 3,422, Whiting, Kannianen 44-33H, Sanish, t1/10; cum 696K 11/18;
      • 20437 (will probably be the nearest well to this new well), 134, Whiting, White 43-33TFH, Sanish, t12/11; cum 169K 11/18;
      • 19174, 2,090, Whiting, Kannianen 43-33H, Sanish, t10/10; cum 388K 11/18;
      • 25323, 468, Whiting, Maki 43-33XH, Sanish, t9/13; cum 209K 11/18;
      • 20840, 3,376, Whiting, Maki 41-33XH, Sanish, t2/12; cum 623K 11/18;
      • 25322, 1,083, Whiting, Maki 41-33-2XH, Sanish, t9/13; cum 317K 11/18;
Interestingly, of nine wells approved for "tight hole" status (confidential), all nine were CLR wells, and seven of them already had an IP. This may be more common than I realize; I generally don't follow "wells approved for tight hole status" but this one caught my eye:
  • 34623, 1,918, CLR, Anderson 5X-4H, Willow Creek:
  • DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    11-20184287148325
    10-20182781533816
    9-20181230


  • 34624, 1,740, CLR, Anderson 6X-4H1, WIllow Creek:

  • DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    11-20182387026508
    10-20182566128820
    9-201863

  • 34625, 2,059, CLR, Anderson 7X-4H, Willow Creek:

  • DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    11-20184365848999
    10-20183303535867
    9-20181830

  • 34641, 1,899, CR, Anderson 8X-4H1, Willow Creek:

  • DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    11-20182724630981
    10-20182351127664
    9-20183660

  • 34642, 1,874,Anderson 9X-4H, Willow Creek:

  • DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    11-20183191836926
    10-20183111135827
    9-201810030

  • 34643, 1,651, Anderson 10X-4HSL1, Willow Creek:

  • DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    11-20181855521052
    10-20182532529798
    9-20187350

  • 34644, 2,236, CLR, Anderson 11X-4HSL, Willow Creek:

  • DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    11-20183988245834
    10-20183218738215
    9-20187270
From above, the two that did not have an IP:
  • 32812, conf, CLR, State Weydahl 8-36H1, Corral Creek:
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    9-201824710
  • 32813, conf, CLR, State Weydahl 8-36H, Corral Creek:
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    9-201820310
Four permits renewed:
  • Hunt (2): two Patten permits in Mountrail County
  • NP Resources (2): two Mosser Federal permits in Billings County

Haynesville -- Keeping Louisiana Great -- January 11, 2019

Link here.

Hubbert's peak oil theory?  Another nail in that coffin. Wasn't the Haynesville old and dying? Yeah, I know -- Hubbert -- it was oil ...

Whatever.

From the linked article:
Gas production in the state of Louisiana in the southern U.S. will soon reach record heights thanks to an outstanding resurgence of the Haynesville shale play.
Data points:
  • the Haynesville Shale alone was able to add 1.85 billion cubic feet per day of gross gas production (Bcfd) between the fourth quarter 2016 and the fourth quarter 2017
  • another 1.3 Bcfd was added last year. Production needs to increase by another 700 million cubic feet per day (MMcfd) in order to reach new all-time highs.
  • “We conclude that Haynesville Shale’s revival, for the second year in a row, looks sustainable. Supported by its proximity to a new LNG export terminal, gas production will continue to grow, and achieving new all-time high gas production levels should happen within a matter of months,” Rystad Energy

Astute Observation: The Wall -- January 11, 2019

Reading the Tea Leaves

************************
Polls

After every presidential speech "snap" polls are always taken.

There have been no "snap" polls published following President Trump's speech (January 8, 2019) regarding "the wall."

This astute observation was made by someone else, not me.

***************************** 
Internal Polls

It appears that President Trump has become more defiant over time. He probably would not "dig in" to the extent he has if internal polls did not suggest he was winning -- at least the way he interprets the polls.

**************************
Polls

This is a most interesting poll (the results, not the poll).
About half of voters, or 47 percent, blame Trump for the shutdown, according to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll. A third of respondents blame Democrats in Congress, and 5 percent say it rests with congressional Republicans.  
Link here. The link is at the most liberal US newspaper.

The same percent of Americans who consistently say they "hate" Trump (47%) is exactly what we see regarding the shutdown. That tells me he has 100% support of the 49% - 51% of the American public that voted for him. He sees the same thing.

The 5% that are said to blame Republicans seems very confusing, at least to me. I suppose those who say the Republicans are to blame are suggesting that the US Senate should be able to override a Trump veto. I don't know. That seems to be splitting hairs.

The fascinating question is what do the other 15% think? The 47%, 33%, and 5% add up to 85%, leaving 15% unaccounted for. That's a fairly large number, 15% for such a contentious issue. Fifteen percent undecided/don't  know/don't care/didn't understand the question.

******************************
Smartest Man In The US Congress (House/Senate)

I think most folks would agree the smartest man in the US Congress (House/Senate) is Senator Mitch McConnell.

Senator Schumer has confirmed that Mitch McConnell is not going to get involved in this debate (at least for now -- questions are now being asked: how long can Mitch McConnell sit this one out?).

Of course, not getting involved with regard to this issue is, in fact, getting involved.

When I see the smartest man not getting involved in this debate speaks volumes. He knows he doesn't have the 20 GOP votes in the US Senate he would need to override a Trump veto.

Best news for Trump: Senator Bob Corker (Tennessee) and the Snowflake, AZ, senator, Jeff Flake, are no longer in the US Senate. Their ankle-biting would have gotten more press than the press that Shelosi gets.

******************************
The Pope

The Pope has been more vocal than ever on the "evils" of capitalism and President Trump, but he has not said anything about Trump's observation that the Vatican has the highest wall of all. A wall that Shelosi calls immoral.

The Pope knows that walls work.

*****************************
Cher

Perhaps among the most outspoken anti-Trumpers in California, Cher says: give the money to Trump.

***********************
Nancy

Fell into the trap.

Forgot how to negotiate.

When invited into the Oval Office to discuss the wall, Nancy made the mistake of replying to Trump's first question with a resounding "no." She should have said, "we will consider funding for the wall if it keeps negotiations open." But if her starting position is "no, not open for discussion" that will be the end of discussions.

*************************************
Democratic Presidents Set Precedent

President Jimmy Carter was the first. However, the "one-day" closures by Carter, Reagan, and GHW Bush were, for the most part, occurred while negotiations continued. It was just a matter of "dotting i's and crossing t's" -- Americans knew the government shutdown was only a technical "thing."

However, it was Clinton/Obama who really understood the power of a government shutdown. Presidents Clinton and Obama brought US government shutdowns into the modern era and made them an "art-form."

The first 3-day shutdown by Trump falls into the "Carter-Reagan-Bush-era" shutdowns.

******************** 
Others

Obama's "border chief," Mark Morgan, supports Trump 100% on the issue of "the wall." From The Washington Post. If it were not Trump advocating the wall, but rather Hillary, you can bet that Obama would be supporting Hillary.

Random Update Of That Huge MRO Arkin Well -- January 11, 2019

This post will not be updated.

See these earlier posts regarding the Arkin well:
The well
  • 33535, 6,204, MRO, Arkin 44-12TFH, Three Forks B1, 45 stages; 6 million lbs, Bailey, t1/18; cum 280K 11/18;
Production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20182681778220812612845121540
BAKKEN10-20183113470134431004918987179270
BAKKEN9-2018301340213563109561721015992169
BAKKEN8-20183117882177711321221963189321546
BAKKEN7-20183120109201091775324387209571811
BAKKEN6-2018302487724753206822298420948180
BAKKEN5-20183124053240962185624700210801853
BAKKEN4-20183031906320232964930733255781489
BAKKEN3-20182529123290222561224033185032172
BAKKEN2-20181735695361703535523990126537313
BAKKEN1-201821611866046217719382181429117169

Neighboring wells:
  • 16993, huge jump in production;
  • 16715, no jump in production;
  • 33534, a 50K well (rounded boe);
  • 33400, a 50K well (rounded boe);
  • 17797, a huge, huge jump in production in 5/18; not re-fracked; selected production profile:
    BAKKEN9-20183070396943412668956145112
    BAKKEN8-201831789377965232787071700
    BAKKEN7-20183186668756681385987221627
    BAKKEN6-2018299681948891389141831232
    BAKKEN5-201831117601191216586937754362995
    BAKKEN4-201821857485642010865345924899
    BAKKEN3-20180000000
    BAKKEN2-20181001202
    BAKKEN1-2018213101070108088
    BAKKEN12-201711501314012
    BAKKEN11-20171417301912755136601096
    BAKKEN10-201731397939541529314202524
    BAKKEN9-201730395039611594310702495

The Croff Wells

The Croff wells:
  • 17297, 523, BR, Cross 1-2 H, Croff, t8/08, cum 289K 7/19; selected production profile --
BAKKEN2-2018152576257836517051535133
BAKKEN1-20182845404662493279027200
BAKKEN12-20173162686518715642863510
BAKKEN11-2017153587301262534943339118
BAKKEN10-20171000000
BAKKEN9-20171100000
BAKKEN8-201714559919507617260
BAKKEN7-2017301155908104158815140
  • 33143, 1,245, BR, Croff 22A MBH, Croff, t10/17, cum 437K 7/19; full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2018302715627174999940370402980
BAKKEN10-201831271532730299071041045005835
BAKKEN9-2018302676226573922218289168401377
BAKKEN8-2018312769827842993133594335170
BAKKEN7-20183129849297081230437070369970
BAKKEN6-20183027782278381061039544394700
BAKKEN5-20183126849268621129032257321800
BAKKEN4-20183029233292841174831345312710
BAKKEN3-20183138042378341370030319302420
BAKKEN2-201827154271543111059535952920
BAKKEN1-20182514425144483186820481420
BAKKEN12-2017241093210976219511338112780
BAKKEN11-2017241123511099505612759115561143
BAKKEN10-201717159715973278202740
  • 33145, 585, BR, Croff 22B UTFH, Croff, t10/17, cum 307K 5/19; offline as of 6/19; remains off line through 7/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2018301750617543868516254162480
BAKKEN10-20183121141212161001922087220790
BAKKEN9-2018301758217447873520023200160
BAKKEN8-201831162031626710190230052294158
BAKKEN7-2018311538815342110612966229525130
BAKKEN6-20183019118191641133228923289160
BAKKEN5-20183119610196051257629748297390
BAKKEN4-2018301941519387815329151291440
BAKKEN3-2018311656516494751626130261220
BAKKEN2-2018271128611360282414273142690
BAKKEN1-20182525329254077105291829170
BAKKEN12-201782372623573733632609326000
BAKKEN11-201718386938221332329032880
BAKKEN10-201796296294131212870
  • 33147, 379, BR, Croff 22C MBH, Croff, t10/17, cum 328K 4/19; off line as of 5/19; remains off line 7/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2018302195821974735120178201700
BAKKEN10-2018312220322303750522299222910
BAKKEN9-2018302012719998685422033220250
BAKKEN8-201831231902330194973477734402365
BAKKEN7-201831240792395898833478734307471
BAKKEN6-2018302102321055919033388333800
BAKKEN5-2018311904819100774227007269990
BAKKEN4-2018302638926385893437069370600
BAKKEN3-20183127341272141145340624406120
BAKKEN2-2018271630716360603020189201830
BAKKEN1-2018262532925407539318781208116699
BAKKEN12-201772372623669733632634326250
BAKKEN11-201725117911164836971174510779958
BAKKEN10-201757007008367336530
  • 33153, 524, BR, Cross 6-1-2 UTFH, Croff, t11/17, cum 496K 7/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2018302918529199928829529295170
BAKKEN10-2018312848328621905030601305900
BAKKEN9-2018302660926436909631680316680
BAKKEN8-20183130223303111141043318433060
BAKKEN7-20183125517254231164844070440590
BAKKEN6-20183028596286601219843078430670
BAKKEN5-20183128517285051334943104430910
BAKKEN4-20183027733276931056042528424430
BAKKEN3-20183123679235971014138326383150
BAKKEN2-2018272072620773888728147280720
BAKKEN1-20182827990280551036911284112110
BAKKEN12-201782372723680733632281322520
BAKKEN11-20171133831323034231362512655958
BAKKEN10-20170000000
  • 33151, 148, BR, Croff 7-1-2 MBH, Croff, t11/17, cum 490K 7/19; full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2018302877428810624928040280290
BAKKEN10-2018313111231241678332426324140
BAKKEN9-2018302733227181649330666306550
BAKKEN8-201831360933621286095078850187587
BAKKEN7-201831319263179289074679746163622
BAKKEN6-2018303285232862858146488464760
BAKKEN5-2018312452024497541333008329980
BAKKEN4-2018302215122126661633943338600
BAKKEN3-2018311988819864616332726327160
BAKKEN2-2018272808028069965040830407510
BAKKEN1-2018262241722509858032115320410
BAKKEN12-201782372623676733626180026160
BAKKEN11-20171129221277234211370212732958
BAKKEN10-20171000200
  • 33154, conf, BR, Croff 8-1-2-UTFH, Croff, no production data,