Monday, January 7, 2019

Another Nail In The Hubbert Peak Oil Coffin -- BB-Federal -- Hess -- January 7, 2019

This page won't be updated.

Hubbert said that once a well's production started declining it would never recover -- peak oil theory for an individual well -- so here we are:
  • 18105, 860, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-1, Blue Buttes, t2/10; cum 406K 11/18; off-line from 1/18 to 5/18; just brought back up on-line in 5/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20181723162573255342334230
BAKKEN10-20182450295169212769176910
BAKKEN9-20182966866893169010452104520
BAKKEN8-201828480848931658683068300
BAKKEN7-20183182398140236011456114560
BAKKEN6-201829655363151383765676560
BAKKEN5-201821451941951284588358830
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20182013491589257400340030
BAKKEN12-20173121352169273380838080

Gee, I wonder how that happened?

The Hess BB-Federal/BB-Chapin wells are tracked here.

Sloop John B, Brian Wilson and Al Jardin

Re-Posting For The Bakken Today -- January 7, 2019


$48.521/7/201901/07/201801/07/201701/07/201601/07/2015
Active Rigs64543954166

Six new permits: pending
  • Operators: XTO (5); Lime Rock Resources
  • Fields: Haystack Butte (McKenzie); Little Knife (Dunn)
  • Comments: XTO has permits for a 5-well Mandal/Hovet Federal pad in 29-149-97; Lime Rock has a permit for Shuck well in 33-144-97 (see below)
Two producers abandoned:
  • 15076, Hess, BLMU N-17HR, Williams County; a Madison well;
  • 27395, Lime Rock Resources, Shuck 4-28-33H, Dunn County (see above)
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: the Wold wells in Banks oil field are tracked here:
  • 34471, 1,573, Whiting, Wold 41-5-3H, Banks, t11/18; 13K after 29 days;
  • 34470, 2,283, Whiting, Wold 41-5- 2TFHR, Banks, t11/18; cum 17K after 19 days; see background here;
  • 34469, 2,714, Whiting, Wold 41-5-2HR, Banks, t11/18; cum 16K after 19 days;
  • 33015, 3,581, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-8, Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum --;
  • 33014, 3,426, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-7, Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum --
  • 34204, 2,971, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-8, Blue Buttes, t12/18; cum --; 
Non Non Rien N'a Changé, Les Poppys

Jet Fuel Prices Spike; ISO New England Grid Price Spikes -- January 7, 2019;

Tonight's NCAA championship game:
The vast majority of spreads seem to have settled at Alabama as a 5.5-point favorite.
The average over/under for the total score of the game currently stands at 57.5 points, per Vegas Insider.
57.5? LOL. Total points early in second period: 37.

************************************
Back to Business

Read more here: https://www.thestate.com/sports/college/acc/clemson-university/article223974345.html#storylink=cpy

From Chesto at the The Boston Globe:
Amazon claims title of most valuable US public company: The e-commerce giant hit $797 billion in market value, overtaking Microsoft.
Wow, how far has APPL has fallen?

We have three Echo Dots/Alexa -- Amazon is on a roll. Amazon, under-promising, over delivering. Apple, over-promising, under-delivering.

***********************************  
Back To Energy

ISO New England, link hereABC Nightly News reports major storm system to hit New England. It will be interesting to see how ISO New England fares. Spot prices in ISO New England spike above $200/MW at 8:00 a.m. this morning.


Jet fuel getting expensive, also. Link here.

Jet fuel differentials on the US Atlantic Coast climbed to their highest levels in 16 months Monday as stock levels in the region continue to sag.

Global Platts assessed jet barrels on Buckeye Pipeline in New York Harbor at the NYMEX February ULSD futures contract plus 13 cents/gal. That was up 4 cents from Friday and highest since it reached plus 14.50 cents/gal on September 7, 2017.
USAC jet fuel inventories fell 656,000 barrels to 8.29 million barrels, according to the latest US Energy Information Administration data. That was down just over a million barrels from the same period last year.
Think about this: in the latest EIA petroleum report --
  • there's a glut of oil
  • there's a glut of gasoline
  • refineries are operating almost at full capacity -- at over 97%
  • and, there a jet fuel supply issue.
What does that tell you about jet fuel demand over the holidays?
*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$48.521/7/201901/07/201801/07/201701/07/201601/07/2015
Active Rigs64543954166

Six new permits: pending
  • Operators: XTO (5); Lime Rock Resources
  • Fields: Haystack Butte (McKenzie); Little Knife (Dunn)
  • Comments: XTO has permits for a 5-well Mandal/Hovet Federal pad in 29-149-97; Lime Rock has a permit for Shuck well in 33-144-97 (see below)
Two producers abandoned:
  • 15076, Hess, BLMU N-17HR, Williams County; a Madison well;
  • 27395, Lime Rock Resources, Shuck 4-28-33H, Dunn County (see above)
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: the Wold wells in Banks oil field are tracked here:
  • 34471, 1,573, Whiting, Wold 41-5-3H, Banks, t11/18; 13K after 29 days;
  • 34470, 2,283, Whiting, Wold 41-5- 2TFHR, Banks, t11/18; cum 17K after 19 days;
  • 34469, 2,714, Whiting, Wold 41-5-2HR, Banks, t11/18; cum 16K after 19 days;
  • 33015, 3,581, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-8, Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum --;
  • 33014, 3,426, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-7, Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum --
  • 34204, 2,971, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-8, Blue Buttes, t12/18; cum --;
*********************************
Sophia: Getting Skis For The Very First Time
December 22, 2018

T+62: Why AGW Mandates Are Not Benign -- January 7, 2019

Link here. The reason "mandates" are not just "symbols." It's going to be even worse in California.
The Massachusetts attorney general wants the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to delve deeper into whether a small Tennessee Gas Pipeline expansion is needed and how it would impact the state's ability to meet its greenhouse gas emissions goals.
The filing is another sign states are flexing their muscles in the natural gas permitting process in New England, where a sometimes constrained pipeline system coincides with a challenging regulatory climate for projects.
In pressing FERC to examine the need, Healey noted that less than two-thirds of the proposed capacity is subscribed through precedent agreements, primarily with Columbia Gas of Massachusetts.
She asked FERC to consider improvements already under consideration by Columbia. Healey also waded into the debate over how far FERC should go in considering GHG emissions.
The projects' cumulative GHG impacts should be evaluated to ensure they do not impair the state's ability to meet its emissions mandates under Massachusetts law calling for a 25% reduction from 1990 levels by 2020 and an 80% drop by 2050, the AG said. FERC must fully assess methane emissions from wellhead to burner tip, the AG added, including assessing potential for leaks and blowdowns.
Healey also pressed FERC to ensure its approval is conditioned on full compliance with the state's wetlands and endangered species regulations.
And she urged FERC to address the potential for inappropriate segmentation of its environmental review from other nearby gas projects.
And, I assume, she will ask FERC if they've taken into account the effect an underground pipeline will have on gophers, migratory ducks, sage grouse, and piping clovers. 

Animated Average Daily Temperature For The US At The EIA Natural Gas Dashboard

A reminder: the EIA natural gas storage "dashboard" has an animated "average daily temperature" map of the US. Really clever. Link here. At the site, click on "daily animation."

********************************
The Amazing Bakken
A 22% Increase 
In Rig Efficiency/Completion Strategy Year-Over-Year

Shale oil operators have a problem -- WSJ. Maybe outside the Bakken they have a problem, but the Bakken doesn't have a problem.

In the graphic below:
  • Bakken efficiency almost 3x that of the Permian (1,600 vs 600).
  • Bakken percentage increase, year-over-year double that of the increase in the Eagle Ford, y-o-y.
Link here.


And looking at the initial production numbers for wells coming off the confidential list this week, the Bakken numbers might even be better than the estimates as shown above.

AGW? No. Ahhhh! -- January 7, 2019

If this is AGW, give me more.

It's not just mild, it's downright balmy.

At least that's what the curmudgeons in Starbucks said this morning at 8:30 a.m.

And it is balmy. It was forecast to hit 71 degrees, but it's already 73 degrees and it could get a degree warmer.

It will get a bit cooler later in the week, down to 66 which the radio guy said was a "more normal" temperature for north Texas this time of year. Sixty-six degrees is the "more normal" temperature, and right now its 73 degrees.

I'm lovin' it.
***********************************
New England Renewable Energy

From a reader:
Brief rundown on upcoming (2 weeks out - January 22, 2019) meeting of Rhode Island coastal regulatory commission ...

Rhode Island fishermen's  advisory council unanimously voted down proposals from Vineyard Wind developer in November regarding turbine layout and compensation for lost revenues.

Week later, RI coastal commission - which DOES have regulatory authority to approve/block project - postponed decision for 2 months to see if stuff could be 'worked out.'

Last week, fishermen's group said no progress is being made.

Right now, January 22, 2019, is the date for scheduled vote to give or deny needed permit.

The fact that 2 fishermen just lost their lives on New Years day right where the existing Block Island farm is located does not bode well for developers. 
(52-foot-long boat took on water and quickly sank at 1:30 a.m.. One survivor. No more details available).

Project manager has stated permit denial will kill off project.

Whiting 3Q18 Corporate Presentation -- December, 2018

Before we get to the Whiting presentation.  From the EOG 3Q18 corporation presentation, this is how much it cost EOG to drill/complete a Bakken well in 2018:
  • $4.6 million
This is how much it cost EOG to drill/complete a well in the Bakken in 2012:
  • $10 million
Now, back to the Whiting 3Q18 presentation.

***************************************
Updates

March 23, 2019: in the presentation below, there is no mention of "Generation 5.0" fracking by Whiting. In early 2019, Whiting began talking about Generation 5 fracking. With Generation 5.0 fracking, Whiting feels that a lot of their Tier 2 areas will become Tier 1. In addition, Whiting is talking about adding more acreage.

Original Post

Link here.

December 6, 2018.

Only a few items that might be different from earlier presentations.

33 slides total.
  • Strategic vision: 
    • reduce debt and deliver free cash flow at $55 NYMEX oil price
    • maintain a strong hedge position (60 - 70% of oil volumes), 12 - 14 months forward
  • Results:
    • 3Q18: net cash exceeded CAPEX by $56 million 
    • 3Q18: discretionary cash flow exceeded capital expenditures by $90 million
    • forecast: 129,000 boe/d
    • Williston Basin operated production forecast to grow 13% 4Q year-over-year (2018 over 2017)
    • plan to drill 120 Bakken/Three Forks in the Williston Basin in CY2018
    • plan to put on production (POP) 123 wells in Williston Basin in CY2018
  • cash flow, historical, in millions
    • 4Q17:  $96
    • 1Q18: $103
    • 2Q18: $56
    • 3Q18: $90
    • four-quarter total: $355
  • Among 12 peers: #1 in generating peer leading cash flow
    • only two peers: positive cash flow
    • ten peers: with negative cash flow
  • Williston Basin acreage
    • Whiting is now #1 in acreage across the core Williston Basin
    • Tier 1 areas: 296,063 net acres
      • East Missouri Breaks
      • Foreman Butte
      • Hidden Bench
      • Polar
      • Sanish/Polar
    • Tier 2 areas: 171,038 net acres
      • Pronghorn
      • West Missouri Breaks
      • Other (probably Wildrose area)
    • Total net acres: 467,101 net acres in Williston Basin
  • 2018 deal
    • Bakken bolt-on
    • 54,833 net acres
    • $130 million
    • new acres overlap Hidden Bench, East Missouri Breaks acreage
    • 1,290 boepd
    • $2,370 / acre
  • McNamara Infill Project: Sanish
    • four sections (22/23/26/27)
    • drill/complete six Bakken infill wells
    • parent wells: 9 parent wells completed in 2007 and 2012
    • seven middle Bakken wells; two Three Forks wells
    • sounds like 15 wells across four sections
    • project has produced more than 1.5 million bbls oil
    • projected DSU recovery factor prior to McNamara infill wells: 11%
    • projected DSU recovery factor including McNamara infill: 20%
  • Sanish generation 4.0 Bakken completions; graph highlights three DSUs
    • McNamara (220 days production)
    • Sanish Bay (190 days production)
    • Bartelson (60 days production)
  • Western Sanish generation 4.0 Bakken wells outperform  by 83%
    • Bartelson parent: 35K bo at 60 days
    • Bartelson children: 65K bo at 60 days
    • Pinwheel pad -- I think CLR had one of the first of these designs
    • 8 new Bakken wells
    • 6 new Three Forks wells
    • 2 existing wells
    • spud to TD average: 9.3 days
    • 76 daysof fracking, 100 million lbs proppant, 2 million bbls fresh water
    • will come in 8% under budget
  • Generation 4.0 Bakken completions (2018)
    • 600 - 1,200 lbs/ft proppant
    • 200' - 300' stage spacing
    • 15 - 40 bbl/ft fluid
    • 30' to 50' cluster spacing
  • Generation 3.0 (2016 - 2017)
  • Generation 2.0 (2013 - 2015)
  • Generation 1.0 (2010 - 2012)
Much, much more at the link.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Fracking:
  • 10,000-ft lateral
  • about 8 million lbs proppant
  • about 40 stages

T+62 -- Mainstream Media Talking US Into Mild Recession -- January 7, 2019

Alexa for Seniors

**************************************
Seriously

That's the talking point over on twitter today: MSM talking US into mild recession.

Just six months ago, folks were talking about record GDP growth; less than six months later, we're talking about a mild recession.

Tea leaves: the "Fed" won't raise "rates" for at least nine months.

US sets holiday sales record -- up an incredible 42% over previous record set last year; but look at this:
  • last year (2017)
    • a record $598 billion dollars — up $33 billion from last year; up 6%
  • this year (2018)
    • a record $850 billion dollars — up $252 billion from last year; up 42%. 
Final jobs report for 2018: incredible; even The New York Times and The Washington Post gobsmacked:
So, talk us into mild recession.

I remain fully invested. My time horizon is 175 years.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions

Connecting the dots: why the mainstream media, #neverTrumpers, the EU, and so many more do not want President Trump to get bragging rights to longest US expansion in history:


**********************************
Echo Dot

We now have three Echo Dots in our little two-bedroom apartment.

My wife sent me this screenshot from her beautician this morning. She noted that she and her beautician answered the "two questions of the day correctly." (Note: the beautician needs to move her 18th century calendar forward a couple of days.)


Fracking -- Completion Strategies -- 2018

A lot of the links will be identical. At the linked sites, one may have to scroll through the list of wells to find specific examples.


MRO:
EOG:
  • middle Bakken, Clarks Creek: 57 - 60 stages; upwards of 19 million lbs; 100 mesh sand
  • middle Bakken, Parshall: 45 stages; 9.4 million lbs;
Hess:
  • middle Bakken, Manitou; 60 stages; 8 million lbs; large/medium white sand
Bruin:
CLR:
Oasis:
BR:
Enerplus:
Whiting:
Lime Rock Resources:
Abraxas, from the company's January 2019 corporate presentation -- frack strategy history:

T+62 -- It's Been An Exciting Two Weeks -- January 7, 2019

For those who have been gone for the past two weeks, this is what you missed:
  • Grapevine, TX, will get first US location of Peppa Pig play center; containers should be moved to Grapevine Mills starting today -- January 7, 2019
  • North Dakota State University takes 7th FCS (football) championship
  • a whopping jobs report
  • the government remains shut down (few have really noticed based on social media discussions)
  • Dallas Cowboys advance
  • Chicago Bears do not advance; lose on a missed field goal from only 33 yards
  • shale producers delivering a one-two punch to OPEC
  • China sets LNG import record
  • US sets record holiday sales; up 42% over previous record set last year
  • North Dakota announces huge taxable sales and purchases, 3Q18
  • Commodity prices plummeted worldwide
  • Saudi charges the usual suspects with the Khashoggi killing
  • RGB will phone it in; won't attend arguments; first time ever; sort of tells me how important it is to actually listen to these cases if one can phone it in
  • Week 1 of the new year
  • Week 52 of last year
And we begin another week.

Shocked. "Named as a key Saudi suspect in Khashoggi killing, former top royal adviser drops out of sight." -- The Washington Post -- I'm shocked. Shocked.

Nursing home alternative. Many, many links. Google cruises instead of nursing home. This is one link.

Echo Dot. Incredible. We have a two-bedroom, 1140-square foot apartment. We have three Echo Dots. Incredible. One in each bedroom and one in the kitchen. How did we ever survive before Amazon?

Making America great again: from Reuters --
Steel producer Nucor Corp said on Monday it would spend about $1.35 billion to build a plate mill in the U.S. Midwest, taking advantage of President Trump's federal tax cuts that has resulted in windfall gains for several companies
Nucor is also benefiting from higher steel prices for domestic producers due to tariffs imposed on imports by the Trump administration last year.
The new mill, which is expected to be fully operational in 2022, would produce 1.2 million tons a year of steel plate products and create about 400 full-time jobs.
Nucor currently operates plate mills in North Carolina, Alabama and Texas. 
Unless I missed it, the location for the new plant was not given; the Midwest is a huge region -- but sounds like Ohio. 

********************************
The Book Page

If I'm distracted while blogging this week, it's due to all the books I've acquired (gifts, library, etc) over the past two weeks.

While blogging the morning note this week, I will be reading:
  • So We Read On: How The Great Gatsby Came To Be and Why It Endures, Maureen Corrigan, c. 2014
  • 109 East Palace: Orbert Oppenheimer and the Secret City of Los Alamos, Jennet Conant, c. $17.99; 2005
*********************************
Frozen

While on vacation in New Mexico recently, Sophia suffered a minor bruise. She wanted "Frozen" band-aids.

I put her on my shoulders and we (actually, I) walked 2.5 miles to the nearest store that might sell band-aids. I walked down aisle 6 where they said the band-aids were. I saw band-aids but did not see "Frozen" band-aids. I was looking at "my" eye-level.

But there they were. Sophia saw them -- right at her eye-level. I was truly impressed. And she put the band-aid all by herself. Look at those eyes. Pretty happy.


Big Day For Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- January 7, 2019

What, me worry? $123 billion of offshore projects may be green lighted this year (2019)

******************************
Back to the Bakken

Anticipation: the main purpose of the blog -- the reason I started the blog in the first place -- was to better understand the Bakken. This is going to be a huge, huge week -- we may learn a lot about the Bakken this week. See these posts:
Wells coming off confidential list --

Monday, January 7, 2018:
33752, 708,  Oasis, Crane Federal 5300 34-27 9B, 50 stages; 10 million lbs, large white sand/ceramic, Willow Creek; t7/18; cum 94K 11/18;

Sunday, January 6, 2018:
34977, 1,767, Hess, EN-Dobrovolny A-155-94-2413H-8, 60 stages; 8 million lbs large/medium sand, Manitou, t10/18; cum 11/18;
34976, 1,600, Hess, EN-Dobrovolny A-155-94-2413H-9, 60 stages; 8.4 million lbs large/medium sand; Manitou, t10/18; cum 30K 11/18;
32799, 1,873, EOG, Clarks Creek 24-0706H, 59 stages; 19 million lbs 100 mesh sand; Clarks Creek; t6/18; cum 228K 11/18;
32798, 1,744, EOG, Clarks Creek 107-0706H, 57 stages; 18.5 million lbs 100 mesh sand, Clarks Creek; t7/18; cum 175K 11/18;
32797, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 72-0706H, Clarks Creek; a huge well;
30889, SI/NC,  Oasis, Stenberg 5199 11-9 9B, Poe, no production data;

Saturday, January 5, 2018:
34990, SI/NC Petroshale, Horse Camp West 2MBH, Mandaree, producing;
34975, 1,719, Hess, EN-Dobrovolny A-155-94-2413H-9, 60 stages; 8.4 million lbs large/medium sand, Manitou, t10/18; cum 23K 11/18;
33431, SI/NC MRO, Birds Bill USA 41-2TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,

Active rigs:


$49.091/7/201901/07/201801/07/201701/07/201601/07/2015
Active Rigs63543954166

RBN Energy: are more US LPG export terminals needed?
Way back in 2012, the U.S. flipped from being a net LPG importer to a net exporter. Since then, exports by ship have skyrocketed, up from 0.3 MMb/d in 2013 to more than 1.1 MMb/d at year-end 2018, an astronomical compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30%. The vast majority of waterborne exports was out of a handful of LPG terminals along the Gulf Coast. These facilities — plus Ferndale in the Pacific Northwest and Marcus Hook near Philadelphia — so far have managed to handle the increasing flow of LPG, but with U.S. NGL production still rising, it looks like new export capacity is needed — and is on the way. All the while, imports of LPG, almost all from Canada, have remained relatively flat, averaging only 130 Mb/d in the 2013-18 period. Today, we begin a series on existing and planned LPG export capacity along the Gulf, West and East coasts — and what’s driving the build-out of these assets. 
***********************************
I Had My Camera Ready When I Showed Sophia
The Most Recent Jobs Report

The jobs report: here, here, and, here.

Tag: Sophia's surprise.