Thursday, January 3, 2019

Part 5, T+58 -- January 3, 2019 -- Telstar And Tornados

Next time someone tells you the weather is getting worse due to AGW, show them this, from Mark Perry, link here.

The chart shows the annual strong/violent (categories F3, F4 and F5) tornado count in the US back to 1954 when the NOAA started tracking these data. 
Last year there were only 12 tornadoes in the US, all category F3 (strong), which is the lowest annual tornado count for the US in more than 60 years of modern records.
Further, it was the first year ever in the US that there wasn’t a single violent tornado in the violent F4 or F5 categories.
Tornadoes only killed 10 Americans in 2018, the fewest since unofficial records began in 1875 during the administration of President Ulysses S. Grant.
The previous record low year for tornado deaths was 1910, when 12 people died, according to data from NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory. In an “average” year, 69 people are killed by tornadoes in the U.S., the Weather Channel said.
Meanwhile, as reported earlier, crops yields are getting better in the midwest, and farmers are planting more corn and soybeans farther north and farther west.

One wonders if we've been asking the wrong questions ...

By the way, if you go to the link above, be sure to look at median income of various ethnic groups in the US. It might surprise you. 

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For All The Sapiens Out There Tonight

Telstar, The Tornados

Bakken Deals -- 2018

Proposal to unitize Long Creek oil field, CLR
Kraken Acquires K-F Wells In Mountrail
Operator transfer; about 40 wells from Oasis to Whiting
US Energy Corp to acquire Bakken assets for $20 million 
Whiting bolt-on acquisition; $130 million
NOG in a $300 million deal
Petro-Hunt acquires 220 SM wells
NOG in a $150 million deal 
PetroShale, $30K/acre
Oasis sells 55,000 acres; $130 million  

************************************
Vigas

During our stay in Santa Fe last week, I saw these beams everywhere, thought about them often, but never had a "push" to research them. Then I found a nice passage about vigas in Jennet Conant's book on J. Robert Oppenheimer, p.57.

From wiki:
Vigas are wooden beams used in the traditional adobe architecture of the American Southwest, especially New Mexico.
In this type of construction, the vigas are the main structural members carrying the weight of the roof to the load-bearing exterior walls. The exposed beam ends projecting from the outside of the wall are a defining characteristic of Spanish Colonial Architecture in New Mexico and often replicated in modern Pueblo Revival architecture. Usually the vigas are simply peeled logs with a minimum of woodworking. In traditional buildings, the vigas support latillas (laths) which are placed crosswise and upon which the adobe roof is laid, often with intermediate layers of brush or soil.
The latillas may be hewn boards, or in more rustic buildings, simply peeled branches.
These building techniques date back to the Ancestral Puebloan peoples, and vigas (or holes left where the vigas have deteriorated) are visible in many of their surviving buildings.
Since the modern Pueblo Revival style was popularized in the 1920s and 1930s, vigas are typically used for ornamental rather than structural purposes. Noted architect John Gaw Meem incorporated ornamental vigas into many of his designs. Contemporary construction in Santa Fe, New Mexico, which is controlled by stringent building codes, typically incorporates ornamental vigas, although the latest revision of the residential building code gives credit for structural vigas.
Older structures that have been reconstructed (e.g. the Palace of the Governors in Santa Fe) may contain both structural and ornamental vigas.
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Ski School, Sophia, Age Four Years Old, Angel Fire, New Mexico

 
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Life During Wartime, Talking Heads

CLR Must Be Demanding Much More From Their Wells -- January 3, 2019

Updates

January 4, 2019: additional comment came in.

Later, 9:29 p.m. CT: see first comment. Reader suggests neighboring frack may have damaged #22891. 

Original Post 

Wow, CLR is really getting "picky." This seems to have been a nice well in an area with a lot of activity, but for whatever reason, CLR decided to abandon the well (AB). It's not permanently abandoned so it could still come back but production was actually pretty good when it was taken off line back in 2017. It had weathered the "Saudi Surge" (2014 - 2016) but for some reason CLR "AB'd" it.

The well:
  • 22891, 947, CLR, Monroe 1-2H, Banks, t8/12; cum 307K 7/17; put on a pump, 9/13;
Production profile of interest:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-2017002230000
BAKKEN7-2017567445113070134001270
BAKKEN6-20170000000
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-2017158080100
BAKKEN2-2017241836211169632232538358
BAKKEN1-20173126592583968450740350
BAKKEN12-20163128093005104258944993420
BAKKEN11-2016302783286010024474399415
BAKKEN10-201631304029321167499745160

Update Of A BR Well Positively Impacted By Neighboring Fracks -- January 3, 2019

It looks like there might be a nice halo effect in Elidah oil field. The wells:
  • 34146, 50, BR, Sanvan 1A-MBH-ULW,  Elidah, t11/18; cum 5K over 11 days; #19712, #21542
  • 31771, 77, BR, Sanvan 8-1-29UTFH-ULW, Elidah, t11/18; cum 5K over 11 days;
Look at #19712 and #21542.

#19712 has only been back on line for two days, so too early to tell.

But look at #21542, the well:
  • 21542, 2,978, BR, Ivan 11-29TFH, Elidah, t7/12; cum 218K 11/18; this well is well west of the Sanvan wells but there are other wells in the area that may be active (still on conf) -- API: 33-053-03788; according to FracFocus, this well was last fracked in 2012; not recently re-fracked; tell me again about the Hubbert peak oil theory:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20182581717910112571357224113269
BAKKEN10-201830117031156817435847111167281
BAKKEN9-201824858187611332413947713880
BAKKEN8-20183110358106061480813265105092679
BAKKEN7-20183181127690159111171262345401
BAKKEN6-201829417640741570565214206029
BAKKEN5-2018224336431213802627462190
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-2017171127938553166816260
BAKKEN9-201719717707507151614690
BAKKEN8-201731140117921800250624290
BAKKEN7-201731137689310792601249727
BAKKEN6-2017301354177811332627251340

Part 4, T+58 -- January 3, 2019

Some of the following was taken from Chesto over at The Boston Globe:

Apple pays the price for its expensive phones: It was only a matter of time, in an age of $1,000 iPhones, that consumers would start saying "no more." And when they did, as tech columnist Hiawatha Bray writes, it was in Chinese.

Delta's warning rattles airline investors: The Atlanta-based carrier said fare revenue didn't climb as much as expected during the holiday season.
 

National Grid, steelworkers unions reach truce: There's a preliminary agreement in place to end the lockout that has slowed work at National Grid for more than six months. The details aren't public yet. But one thing's for sure: It will take a long time to clear out the pending backlog of gas hookups.

ISO New England is doing just fine, thank you. Very little need for Canadian hydro (very expensive) and less than 1% coal. 

Opportunities: this might be the year car prices come way down. Certainly, EVs are coming down in price. Tesla has dropped their prices and GM likely to follow. Of course, the Federal tax breaks for both companies are being phased out now that both compnies have reached "the threshold." With impeachment on the minds of US House members Congress may not have the attention span to work on extending the "EV threshold." If not an EV, the Nissan line-up is enticing. Especially the Rogue. EV sales data is almost complete for calendar year 2018.

If you have 22 minutes with nothing else to do:
The 2019 Nissan Rogue
State of Oregon slapped. Over-reach by state ruled unconstitutional

Market: I never thought I would have another chance to buy shares in some companies at such a great price.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

It's up to you. Make up your mind. Do what you're gonna do. It's all so clear. It was an open book test as soon as Jerome "Jay" Powell went ahead and raised "rates" a third time when things were looking to go south, anyway.

It's Up To You, Rick Nelson

Updating The Oldest Wells In North Dakota -- January 3, 2019

Happy, Happy Birthday, Ronnie Milsap

Recently, the oldest actively producing well, #35, was put on the AB list.
  • 35, 503, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Devonian unit H-310, Beaver Lodge, t4/52; cum 216K 7/17;
I had to go through a lot of permits to find the current oldest actively producing wells. These appear to be the five oldest actively producing wells. They are vertical wells with a depth of around 9,000 - 12,000 feet. They are Madison wells, and the oldest will turn 65 years old this year.

These Madison wells have each taken 50+ years to produce 500,000 bbls.

The wells:
  • 498, 292, Hess, Tioga-Madison Unit L-132 HR, Tioga, t7/54; cum 534K 11/18; 
  • 554, 408, Hess, Tioga-Madison Unit L-128 HR, Tioga, t8/54; cum 279K 11/18; 
  • 629, 159, Hess, Tioga-Madison Unit O-151 HR, Tioga, t9/54, cum 783K 11/18; 
  • 637, 350, Rim Operating, Hofflund 18HR, Hofflund, t12/54; cum 392K 11/18; 
  • 774, 156, Petro-Hunt, CMSU D0216, Charlson, t6/55; cum 474K 11/18;
With regard to #498:
  • there is a sundry form dated June 1, 2018, asking to "PA" the well, but, then, there follows
  • a sundry form saying the well was returned to production 6/19/2018
  • the well had been taken off line 3/16 due to low oil prices (per company's sundry form) but then returned to production 6/18, as noted, with recent production as follows:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
MADISON11-2018300180000
MADISON10-2018304340404210721070
MADISON9-2018305566224122012200
MADISON8-2018311561946968304230420
MADISON7-201831136831979491349130
MADISON6-2018113120709279127910
MADISON5-20180000000

The other wells:
  • #554 has only been off-line for a few consecutive months, and that was back in 1999.
  • $629 has a similar production profile to $554.
  • #637 is a much better well recently but was offline for several years, from 12/89 to 5/05 -- by the way, this would be a conventional well that disproves Hubberts peak oil theory; just saying
  • #774 has a similar production profile as the first two above
By the way, you ask, how is Mr Woodrow Star doing? See this post.  Mr Star is alive and kicking, over 60 years old, now  --
  • 1987, 150, CLR/Pan American/Prima, Woodrow Star "A" 1, Antelope field; Sanish; t10/58; cum 1.105431 million bbls 11/18;
Having said that, it looks dismal -- there were no "runs" in November, 2018, the first time there have no runs in six months.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH11-201830930885870480
SANISH10-2018314916983508890470
SANISH9-2018304584523388860481
SANISH8-2018314082323158630475
SANISH7-2018314134503956960296
SANISH6-20182744621627235100
SANISH5-201896201253300

Ten DUCs Reported As Completed; Nine New Permits -- January 3, 2019

Weekly crude oil inventories, API data, link here:
  • a draw of 4.5 million bbls
  • forecast: a draw of 2.333 million bbls
  • that's pretty fine forecasting -- down to 2,333,000 bbls or forecast to the nearest 1000 bbls; color me impressed 
  • headline screenshot: 

  • but it was the gasoline, distillate build that suppressed oil prices; WTI dropped 20 cents
    • gasoline inventories rose 8.0 million bbls vs a predicted build of 2.267 million bbls
    • distillates rose 4.0 million bbls vs a predicted build of 2.567 million bbls
  • again, the precision of the forecast is remarkable

Gasoline, days of supply, EIA: link here. Unremarkable. Still running at 25 days. Seven days too much supply.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$46.981/3/201901/03/201801/03/201701/03/201601/03/2015
Active Rigs65533960171

Nine new permits:
  • Operators: CLR (4): WPX (3); Petroshale; Berengery
  • Fields: Banks (McKenzie); Squaw Creek (McKenzie); Eagle Nest (Dunn); Chatfield (Bottineau)
  • Comments: CLR has permits for 4-well Wahpeto pad in 16-152-99; WPX has permits for a 3-well Badger pad in 23-149-94; Petroshale has a permit in 9-148-94 for a Helen MBH well; and, Berenergy has a permit for (most likely) a Madison well in 30-139-81;
One permit renewed:
  • Whiting: a Rennerfeldt permit in Williams County
Change of ownership: 24 permits/wells
  • from Williston Exploration to Medora Minerals, LLC
  • in southwestern North Dakota
  • most of them in Billings County
  • older permits; as old as ##14994; most recent, #25347
Ten producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 31779, 509, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-13-2PH, Park, t11/18; cum 8K over 12 days;
  • 33891, 2,554, Hess, SC-5WX-152-99-0310H-2, Banks, t11/18; cum 16K over 14 days;
  • 30633, 1,902, Hess, SC-Hoving-LW-154-98-1003H-1, Truax, t11/18; cum 14K over 16 days;
  • 33892, 2,018, Hess, SC-5WX-152-99-0310H-3, Banks, t11/18; cum 28K over 20 days;
  • 34169, 1,426, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-4, Truax, t11/18; cum 17K over 21 days;
  • 33893, 1,740, Hess, SC-5WX-152-99-0310H-4,  Banks, t11/18; cum 27K over 26 days;
  • 34168, 1,450, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-3, Truax, t11/18; cum 24K over 28 days;
  • 34146, 50, BR, Sanvan 1A-MBH-ULW,  Elidah, t11/18; cum 5K over 11 days; #19712, #21542 -- see this post;
  • 31771, 77, BR, Sanvan 8-1-29UTFH-ULW, Elidah, t11/18; cum 5K over 11 days;
    #19712, #21542 -- see this post;
  • 33837, 1,625, Abraxas, Yellowstone 7H, North Fork, t8/18; cum 157K 11/18; #18708 -- absolutely no improvement; unusual to say the least with all the neighboring activity;
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Production Profile For That Abraxas Yellowstone Well

The well:
  • 33837, 1,625, Abraxas, Yellowstone 7H, North Fork, t8/18; cum 157K 11/18; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-201830187431855411006546823418620286
BAKKEN10-201831259282451713390714433456336663
BAKKEN9-201830323833243916689840725343330429
BAKKEN8-201831380123836118524776585155425887
BAKKEN7-201830352433450619239687244075827756
BAKKEN6-201810658265075641962277791773

The Railroad To California -- Making Canada Great -- January 3, 2019

Link here.

Data points:
  • California, first nine months of 2018, CBR exceeded the heyday of 2013 - 2014
  • around 500,000 bopd (about a third of the total Bakken daily production)
  • source: New Mexico, Wyoming, Canada
  • more than doubled from New Mexico and Canada
*********************************
Sempra Energy Sells US Natural Gas Storage Facilities

Link here

Data points:
  • $332 million in cash to ArcLight Capital Partners
  • assets sold: the Mississippi Hub storage facility in Simpson County, MS - 22.3 bcf storage
  • Bay Gas storage facility in southwest Alabama - 20.4 bcf storage

Wow, Wow, Wow -- The Brandvik/Weydahl Wells Are Starting To Show Production -- January 3, 2019

This page will not be updated. These wells are "H," "H1," and "H2" wells.

See this post. From an earlier note --
  • November 1, 2018: note the very, very small amounts of water used to frack these new Brandvik/Weydahl wells; it will be interesting to see their initial production.
Most are still SI/NC, but production runs are starting to show. Almost across the board, these wells are extrapolating to 50,000 bbls/well the first full month. Older wells are showing jump in production.
  • 32815, SI/NC, CLR, Brandvik 9-25H, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18; FracFocus, 4/1/18 - 4/27/2018; 548,091 gallons of water; 88% water by weight;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN11-20181423557234392842929619269762643
    BAKKEN10-20180000000
    BAKKEN9-20180000000
    BAKKEN8-2018413301330898139301393
  • 32816, SI/NC, CLR, Brandvik 10-25H2, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN11-20181423557234392842929619269762643
    BAKKEN10-20180000000
    BAKKEN9-20180000000
    BAKKEN8-2018413301330898139301393
  • 32817, SI/NC, CLR, Brandvik 11-25H, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN11-20181422348222363576728138256272511
    BAKKEN10-20180000000
    BAKKEN9-2018394894820579360936
  • 32818, SI/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 10-36H2, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN11-20181422348222363576728138256272511
    BAKKEN10-20180000000
    BAKKEN9-2018394894820579360936
  • 32819, SI/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 11-36H, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN11-20181429717295681565619229175131716
    BAKKEN10-20180000000
    BAKKEN9-201831207120718108660866
  • 30365, SI/NC, CLR, Brandvik 5-25H1, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18;
  • 30366, SI/NC, CLR, Brandvik 6-25H, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18;
  • 30367, SI/NC, CLR, Brandvik 7-25H2, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18;
  • 30362, SI/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 5-36H1, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18; FracFocus, 6/18/2018 - 7/11/2018, 679,000 gallons of water; 87.5% water by weight;
  • 30363, SI/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 6-36H, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18; FracFocus, 6/18/2018 - 7/11/2018; 662,920 gallons of water; 87.4% water by weight;
  • 30364, SI/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 7-36H2, Corral Creek, starting to produce; Frac Focus, 6/18/2018 - 7/11/2018; 453,948 gallons of water; 87.8% water by weight;
  • 32812, SI/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 8-36H1, Corral Creek, starting to produce, FracFocus, 743,606 gallons of water; 87.4% water by weight;
  • 32813, SI/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 9-36H, Corral Creek, beginning to produce, 9/18; FracFocus, 5/23/2018 - 6/17/18; 749,087 gallons of water (no typo); 87.3% water by weight;
  • ***** 32814, SI/NC, CLR, Brandvik 8-25H1, Corral Creek, beginning to produce, 9/18; FracFocus, 5/23/2018 - 6/17/18; 568,755 gallons of water (no typo); 87.4% water by weight;
  • ***** 32818, SI/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 10-36H2, Corral Creek,
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN11-20181422348222363576728138256272511
    BAKKEN10-20180000000
    BAKKEN9-2018394894820579360936
  • 32819, SI/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 11-36H, Corral Creek, starting to produce, FracFocus, 3/1/2018 - 3/29/2018; 767,682 gallons of water; 87.8% water by weight;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN11-20181429717295681565619229175131716
    BAKKEN10-20180000000
    BAKKEN9-201831207120718108660866

  • 23785, 400, CLR, State Weydahl 3-36H1, Corral Creek, t8/13; cum 317K 5/18; production has reached a plateau; ready for a mini-frack or a new full frack; waiting to see result of neighboring fracks; off-line as of 5/18; huge jump in production in 4/18; off line as of 6/18;
  • 23786, 691, CLR, State Weydahl 2-36H, Corral Creek, t8/13; cum 316K 2/18 ; ditto, #23785; off-line since 2/18; remains off line as of 11/18;
  • 29555, 1,497, CLR, State Weydahl 4-36H1, Corral Creek, t7/15; cum 359K 11/18; this well is clearly better than the two wells drilled in 2013; two years younger than the 2013 wells and it had already surpassed the production of each of the 2013 wells; not yet a candidate for a mini-frack or a new full frack; waiting to see result of neighboring fracks; see full production profile at this post. API: 33-025-02680. According to FracFocus, last fracked in June, 2015. 
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Now, For Something A Little Different