Friday, December 6, 2019

Off The Net For Awhile -- December 6, 2019

How about them Dallas Cowboys last night? They lose another one. Truly unbelievable.

Off the net for awhile. How much work is left in the Bakken? The short answer: a lot.

WTI: $58.84.

Not Sure What To Say -- December 6, 2019

This tells me all I need to know about Merkel:

Holy Mackerel -- Wow, I Would Love To See Steve Lieman's Face When He Reports This; Payrolls Surge; Well Ahead Of Projections; Unemployment Rate Actually Ticks Down -- December 6, 2019

Holy mackerel: this is really, really incredible. I assume the mainstream media is still giving Obama the credit for the economy. 

Jobs, link here, November jobs:
  • nonfarm payrolls
    • prior: 128,000
    • consensus forecast: 180,000
    • actual: 266,000
  • private payrolls:
    • prior: 131,000
    • consensus forecast: 168,000
    • actual: 254,000
  • unemployment rate:
    • prior: 3.6%
    • consensus forecast: 3.6%
    • actual:3.5%
  • manufacturing payrolls:
    • prior: -36,000
    • consensus forecast: 15,000
    • actual: 54,000
Recession is just around the corner

Futures: unchanged, down if anything.


CNN: "Stocks pop on good jobs report." In fact, the Dow opening was a bit lower than the Dow futures just before and after the jobs report came out. And it was not a "good" report. It was a spectacular report.

Headwinds: every story, it seems, says the job market was incredible despite the headwinds. Exactly what headwinds? The only headwinds I know:
  • TDS
  • consistent and never-ending negativity from mainstream business media 
Example? This article from "The Rachel Maddow Show" -- MSNBC: the writer shows that job growth slowed under Trump compared to job growth under Obama. This is so predictable. I googled: MSNBC job report today. Screenshot:

  • easy money;
  • everyone is employed -- employed folks pay taxes and buy more stuff;
  • US House not passing any more regulations;
  • US is energy independent -- this is huge and is not being reported;
  • gasoline is below $2.00 / gallon here in north Texas; people have more money to buy other stuff;
What's the best way to put another nail in a solution looking for a  problem? Gasoline below $2.00 / gallon. EVs were a solution to a problem that did not exist.

This morning:

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- December 6, 2019


Amy Klobuchar: quietly gaining momentum (the link has been corrected) -- The Chicago Tribune, and Sophia saw a unicorn in the wild yesterday.

Baby names: By the way, for 2019, top baby girl names, #1, Sophia; #2, Olivia; #13, Charlotte. The Today Show list varies from what is being posted elsewhere. Elsewhere, Muhammed makes the top ten list for baby boy names; Muhammed doesn't show up on The Today Show list. Why does that not surprise me? Even reporting baby names has become "fake news." The Sun has the real list.

"You're too old to vote." -- Joe Biden; yesterday's town hall meeting; and that's no malarkey. His "deplorables" moment? Nope, media will ignore it. TDS.

Hillary: recalculating ... recalculating ... recalculating.

Bloomberg: $30 million later --- 6%; won't be on debate stage

Steyer: $50 million later -- 0%; will be on debate stage; spent $50 million in less than 3 months -- LA Times.

Futures: another good day for the market? Indices trending green. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Jobs, link here, November jobs:
  • nonfarm payrolls:
    • prior: 128,000
    • consensus forecast: 180,000
    • actual: 266,000
  • unemployment rate:
    • prior: 3.6%
    • consensus forecast: 3.6%
    • actual:3.5%
  • manufacturing payrolls:
    • prior: -36,000
    • consensus forecast: 15,000
    • actual: 54,000
Factory orders rebound in October -- multiple sources. From US News -- recession is just around the corner --
New orders for U.S.-made goods rebounded in October after two straight monthly declines, lifted by rising demand for machinery and transportation equipment, but gains were likely to be limited amid persistently weak business confidence.
Factory goods orders increased 0.3% also as bookings for computers and electronic products rose, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Data for September was revised down to show orders dropping 0.8% instead of falling 0.6% was previously reported. October's gain in factory orders was in line with economists' expectations.
Canadian banks: Canadian banks shed staff as troubles grow for indebted consumers .... well, what would one expect in a country closed for business? Over at Financial Times -- and if you can't trust the Financial Times, who can you trust? Behind a paywall, but I will post a bit from the story later.


Confused: there are two memes out there --
  • oil is dead;
  • long live oil
I don't get it (well, actually I do, but ...). The media narrative is that "oil is dead" and yet the data suggests otherwise. The mainstream business media seems to be all agog over Saudi Arabian oil but non-business media seem to suggest oil is dead, notwithstanding that global demand for crude oil is at all time highs. Whatever. And get this ... WTI is trending toward $60. If US oil can't make money on $55-oil, maybe they can on $60 oil ...

More proof of confused narrative? Reuters -- Norway ramps up western Europe's largest oilfield as oil's future questioned. Can you say, "Johan Sverdrup"? Obviously I can't. I've been calling it the "John Sverdrup" oil field all this time; even my link at the sidebar at the right is incorrect. I track the oil field here.

EVs: the fad seems to be waning. Interest in China dropped off a cliff after government ended subsidies; video  of long line of Teslas waiting to charge  at California charging station went viral this past week; companies no longer reporting EV sales on a monthly basis; at best we will get quarterly data; 

Headlines on same page over at Rigzone:
EPD: a blue chip among MLPs. MoneyShow. "Ad" disguised as a news story. Ignore.

Kinder Morgan: plans to spend $2.4 billion on expansion projects and joint ventures in 2020;
  • headline says it all; not much more to the story
  • backlog: $4.1 billion in capital projects 
  • CAPEX: plans to spend upwards of $3 billion each year on organic investment opportunities
  • previously posted: will sell its Canadian subsidiary to Calgary-based Pembina Pipeline Corp for $2.5 billion by 1H20
  • completed the $3.46 billion sale of the Trans Mountain assets and expansion project to the Canadian government in 3Q18
XOM: days as dog of the Dow are over -- Bank of America; some analysts think XOM could do well in 2020 based on Permian projections. Link.

Shale investing: a lot of misstatements (outright lies?) but the article does provide a nice update for those looking to invest in shale operators.
These five companies had breakeven prices lower than $26 per barrel at lateral lengths of 7,560 to 10,500:
  • EOG Resources
  • Pioneer Natural Resources
  • Concho Resources
  • Exxon Mobil unit XTO Energy
  • Chevron
This writer doesn't understand Saudi Arabia or Saudi Aramco or the IPO either.

What Condition Is My Condition In?

The Book Page

From The Vikings: A History, Robert Ferguson, c. 2009.

I checked this book out at the library two weeks ago; finished it; loved it. Returned the book to the library and then bought my own copy through Amazon. Re-reading it again; reading it slowly.

We all know the story of Charlemagne, 8th century Europe. For me, I was never aware what drove his desire to expand his empire. Either that was not taught when I was studying world history in middle school (?) or I completely missed it.

It was all about religion, Christianity to be specific:
  • converting the barbarians/heathens of the north and northeast to Christianity; and,
  • pushing the Muslims out of Europe, particularly the Iberian peninsula
I always thought his expansion was secular in nature. Not at all.

I was curious which Roman Catholic "sect" was most prominent at this time. I knew all of this at one time, but had forgotten. During my USAF tour of England some years ago, mostly Yorkshire, I visited any number of monastery ruins, got the t-shirt and the books, and learned as much as I could, much of which I have now forgotten. A quick google/wiki search suggests it was the Benedictines during the Charlemagne/Frankish rule.

By the way, that's where I first "met" St Bede. His works provided me a number of passwords at the time -- which I no longer use.

Looks Like All Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today Will Be DUCs -- December 6, 2019

It appears if the IPs for the wells coming off the confidential list -- if reported at all today -- will be reported later this afternoon. 

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5563533864

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Friday, December 6, 2019: 19 for the month; 224 for the quarter:
  • 35916, SI/NC, WPX, Badger 22-21HY, Squaw Creek, no production data,
  • 32415, conf, CLR, Polk Federal 9-33H, Banks, no production data,
  • 30597, conf, Sinclair, Ersa Federal 4-4H, Bully, no production data, 
RBN Energy: regulations spark a bevy of U.S. renewable diesel projects.
Production of alternative, non-petroleum-based fuel continues to be a hot topic around the globe as government policies have incentivized or even mandated these products with the aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In the U.S., we’ve seen waves of ethanol and biodiesel enter the fuel supply chain, but the latest commodity that has piqued industry interest is renewable diesel, whose chemical characteristics make it a particularly desirable replacement for conventional distillate. Today, we provide an overview of the renewable diesel market, the legislative programs in North America that are incentivizing its production, and the projects currently on the books to produce it.
Renewable diesel is similar to biodiesel in that it can be produced from lipids — typically vegetable oil, waste cooking oil, animal fats, etc. However, the production processes for the two fuels are different, leading to important differences in their chemical structures. Renewable diesel is most commonly produced through hydrotreating the feedstock, while biodiesel is produced through transesterification, a process that turns the lipids into fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) — and a great word to remember for Scrabble. We won’t bog you down with a complex description of those two processes, but the important thing to remember is that each of the resulting fuels has distinct properties that allow them to be blended differently with petroleum-based diesel. Biodiesel is subjected to lower blending limits (typically 5-20%; lower in colder climates) due to its cold-flow properties — i.e., its flow behavior at low temperatures — that can lead to plugging, or restricted flows, in vehicle fuel systems. By contrast, renewable diesel is chemically similar to petroleum-based diesel and can therefore be used as a direct “drop-in” substitute that is not subject to similar blending limits.

Thursday, December 5, 2019

Blogging Might Be A Big Different For The Next Week -- December 5, 2019

To readers:

My wife is out of town for the week. We share driving duties, taking three granddaughters to and from school and to all their after-school activities.

My wife is out of two for eight days.

I plan to blog just as much but the blogging may be earlier in the morning and later in the evening, but it will all get done.

But if you don't see much blogging from late afternoon to early evening, that's the reason. Hopefully, by mid-December, things will be back to normal.

All Politics -- Nothing About The Bakken

I love these headlines and these stories.

From The Chicago Tribune December 4, 2019, about 60 days out from first delegate selections:

Unfortunately there are no recent state polls out, but for the archives, note the most recent poll, and how Amy Klobuchar is polling:

Data from RealClear Politics:
  • national, 12/1 - 12/3:  3% (has not varied from 2% or 3% since the CNN poll 11/21 - 11/24
  • Iowa State, 11/15 - 11/19: 5% (has not varied from 5% to 6% since first of three polls)
  • New Hampshire, 11/22 - 11/26: 2%, down from 6% 11/13 - 11/18;
  • Nevada, 11/10 - 11/13: 2%; absolutely no change since 10/31 - 11/2;
  • South Carolina, 11/13 - 11/17 (Quinnipiac): 1%; really? yes, really; 
  • California, 11/20 - 11/22: 1%;  
  • Texas, 10/18 - 10/27: 2%;
  • Massachusetts, 10/16 - 10/20: 1%;
So, in her backyard (Iowa/Minnesota): polls at 5%; everywhere else, 1% to 2% -- momentum?  I'm waiting for the next polls.

At best, she is shooting for the VP role.

And yes, there will be a woman on the Democrat ticket. But it's not going to be Amy Klobuchar. 

Whiting Cancels Seventeen Permits -- December 5, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5562533964

Five new permits:
  • Operators: CLR (3); MRO (2)
  • Fields: Banks (McKenzie); St Demetrius (Billings); Killdeer (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has a single permit for a Xavier well in section 10-141-99; St Demetrius; and two Monroe permits for Lot 12 / section 2-152-99;
    • MRO has permits for two well Hoss/McGowan pad in section 34-146-95, Dunn County
Two permits renewed:
  • EOG: two Clarks Creek permits in McKenzie County
Whiting canceled seventeen permits:
  • in Williams County (9): Larson (2), Jackman, P Lynch (2), Schilke (3), Olson (2), P Bibler, 
  • in Stark County (5): Koppinger (2); Tomchuk; Solberg, Dietz, Wright;
  • Whiting's common stock fell 7.33% today; lost 37 cents; and, closed the day at $4.68; intra-day low of $4.60; 52-week intra-day low is $4.29;
One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:
  • 36040, 3,023, WPX, White Owl 32-29HC, Eagle Nest, t11/19; cum 10K over first 31 days;
    • neighboring, parent well, #18419 remains off line:
      • WXP, 510, Bearstail, 32-29H, t2/12; cum 329K 9/19; remains off line 10/19;

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- December 5, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Politics: The US House will vote to impeach President Trump. The US Senate has the entire month of January cleared for the trial.

The market: was headed marginally higher before the US House (Ms Nancy Pelosi) announcement. After the announcement, the Dow turned slightly negative.

Macron's France, this is how you cut your CO2 emissions, from zerohedge:
In what appears to be the biggest disruption to French society since the gilets jaunes demonstrators nearly torched Paris last year, public workers across the country stayed home on Thursday, immobilizing public transit across the country as the first general strike in more than 20 years began.

The walkout was called by unions angry at President Emmanuel Macron's pension reforms (not unlike how a planned - then scrapped - gas tax hike sparked the giles jaunes).

The biggest industrial action of Macron's tenure is, so far, staggering in scale: 50% of French teachers are off work, nine out of ten trains were cancelled and eleven of the fourteen underground lines in Paris are closed. A total of 245 separate demonstrations have been announced across France as students, firefighters, healthcare workers and others joining in. Strikes at Air France forced a wave of flight cancellations, leaving thousands of travelers scrambling for a workaround. Air France cancelled 30% of its domestic flights and 10% of international short- and medium-haul flights on Thursday, RT reports.
Got corn? From a 2014 NASA press release.
Data from satellite sensors show that during the Northern Hemisphere's growing season, the Midwest region of the United States boasts more photosynthetic activity than any other spot on Earth, according to NASA and university scientists.
In other words sucks up more CO2 and releases more O2 than even the Amazon. 

Global Warming Smacks The US -- December 5, 2019

Link here.

Another Phenomenal Jobs Report; Recession Is Just Around The Corner; Better Late Than Never -- The Road To California -- December 5, 2019

First-tie jobless claims, link here; claims come in well under what was forecast:
  • prior: 213K
  • consensus forecast: 218K
  • actual: 203K
Gasoline demand, link here:

The Road To California

Had it not been for California, the US would have become a net exporter of crude oil quite some time ago. 

From my note of January 2, 2016:
The most recent EIA energy analysis of California was a year ago. It will be updated January 21, 2016. The last EIA analysis (2015; most recent data, 2014):
I had completely forgotten about the EIA California update. Here is the most current EIA California profile, dated November 15, 2018

I was trying to sort out why the US is still importing oil from the Mideast and South America. From the profile:
California refiners process large volumes of foreign and Alaskan crude oil received at the state's ports.
As crude oil production in California and Alaska has declined, California refineries have become increasingly dependent on imports to meet the state's needs.
Led by Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, and Colombia, foreign suppliers now provide more than half of the crude oil refined in California.
Transportation dominates California's energy consumption profile. More motor vehicles are registered in California than in any other state, and commute times in California are among the longest in the country.
The state also accounts for one-fifth of the nation's jet fuel consumption.
California ranks third in the nation in petroleum refining capacity after Texas and Louisiana, and the state accounts for one-tenth of the total U.S. refining capacity.
From December 6, 2018:
Today, the EIA announced that for the first time in 75 years, the US was a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products.

In fact, if one were to "back out" California imports of crude oil, the US would have become a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum before now.

This graphic comes from the state of California, pay particular attention to 2001:

Three Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- December 5, 2019

WTI: at $58.91, trending towards $60. For California commuters, Brent is trending toward $64.  

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5662533964

Three wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, December 5, 2019: 16 for the month; 221 for the quarter:
  • 36450, SI/NC, WPX, Badger 22-21HIL, Squaw Creek, no production data,
  • 35611, 1,596, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-4, Ross, t6/19; cum 81K 10/19; 23K month;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 35536, 675, Oasis, Om Erickson 5501 11-18 4B, Missouri Ridge, t6/19; cum 94K 10/19; 21K month;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

RBN Energy: disappearing arbs and harder times for some third-party oil shippers.
A little over a year ago, we discussed the rapidly expanding third-party shipper market for crude oil in West Texas. At the time, crude at Midland was trading at nearly a $15/bbl discount to Gulf Coast markets. Pipeline space out of the Permian was hard to come by and extremely valuable, and everybody and their brother — literally, in some cases — were forming a limited liability corporation and trying to secure space as a walk-up, “lottery” shipper. A lot of people made a lot of money, but now, just over a year later, much of that lottery opportunity has dried up. Nowadays, these same folks are looking for new opportunities, or going back to old strategies, only to find that being a third-party shipper today is more expensive and more burdensome. In today’s blog, we recap how lottery shippers made buckets of money in late 2018 and early 2019, only to see their target of opportunity dry up due to midstream investment.

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

For The Archives -- An Obituary -- December 4, 2019

Page 82, the last page of the November 2nd - November 8th edition of The Economist. Here is the internet link, behind a paywall. It is interesting that the internet "header" is different than the hard copy.

Third paragraph from the end:
In the cities he conquered he set up offices to take in taxes and traffic fines, register babies and licence (sic) marriages, as in a proper state. He imposed the sharia in which he was expert: hands hacked off for stealing, whippings for drunkenness, adulterous women stoned. He also expanded it, justifying everything smoothly with holy writ. Unbelievers were expelled or killed if they did not pay their taxes. Yazidis were driven from their homes and their women abducted to be sold and raped with organised (sic) efficiency. Enemies were crucified, burned alive, drowned in cages, beheaded with slow saws, while everything was filmed and posted online for the world to observe and dread. He sometimes shared the videos first the kufr women he kept chained in a nearby room for his own pleasure. Raping an infidel woman was a spiritual exercise that brought a believer close to God.

Saudi Aramco IPO -- The Economist's Perspective -- December 4, 2019

The Economist. Hard copy. (I assume the internet edition is behind a paywall.)

November 2nd - 8th, 2019.

Front cover, "To The Last Drop: Saudi Arabia's Strategy to Survive The End Of Oil."

Op-ed on page 11.

Three-page essay, starting on page 61.

First from the op-ed, page 11, near the end of the op-ed, verbatim:
America, meanwhile, remainswedded to oil, which meets 40% of its energy needs. Its thirst has been satisfied by the fracking boom, especially in he Permian basin in Texas. Yet fracking is dirty and new projects need an oil price of $40 - $50 a barrel to break-even, at twice the level Aramco requires. For the sake of the climate and efficiency, the fracking industry should eventually shrink. That, though, would make America more reliant on foreigners, just as its politics have turned inward.
Now, from the essay, page 63:
Aramco's breakeven costs for new projects, even after tax, are $31, according to Rystad Energy's data, slightly higher than Iran, Iraq or Kuwait but less than half the level of Russiant and wo-thirds the level in America.
From the NDIC, breakevens in the Bakken, released August 15, 2019:


One comment: The Economist again disingenuously omits the fact that Saudi Arabia's budget is based on its only export product: oil. Several years ago Saudi said it needed $100/bbl to balance its budget. When the price of oil plummeted, Saudi Arabia initially said they only needed $80/bbl and then said they could meet their budget even at $60/bbl (Brent). Production costs are important, even for Saudi Arabia, but failing to state the budgetary requirements for Saudi Arabia completely misses the bigger picture. 

MRO With Six New Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed -- December 4, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5664533964

Six new permits, #37241 - #37246, inclusive --
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Killdeer (Dunn)
  • Comments: 
    • MRO has six permits for lot 4 / section 3-145-94, Killdeer oil field
One permit was renewed:
  • BR: a Hawktail permit in Dunn County
One permit was canceled:
  • Oasis: a Hendricks permit in Williams County
One producing (DUC) was reported as completed:
  • 29568, 99, SHD, Wiley 24-30H, Deep Water Creek, t10/19; cum --;

Colombia Crude Oil Exports To US Plummet Week-Over-Week -- December 4, 2019

Imploding? From twitter --

Colombia's crude oil exports to the US crumbling, link here;

Having said that, Colombia's exports to the US are very "volatile." (See first comment.)

I assume Colombia's oil is "heavy oil." If it's Castella Blend, it's very, very, very heavy:

For comparison, western Canadian select, WCS, heavy oil, has an API of 20.9. Bakken, a very light oil, is in the 41+ range.

EIA's Weekly Petroleum Report; WTI Surges -- December 4, 2019

Weekly Petroleum Report:
  • US crude oil in storage: 447.1 million bbls
  • week-over-week oil in storage: decreased by a whopping 4.9 million bbls
  • refiners operating at 91.9% capacity; slowly creeping up; well below the norm;
  • crude oil imports are down over 20% over the same four-week period last year
  • all things being equal, WTI should be up nicely, unless movers and shakers knew these numbers last night; so let's check WTI: up 3.67%; up $2.06; trading at $58.16 -- back to where it was last week when it plunged; 
Re-balancing (note: many lines/weeks hidden to keep graph manageable):
Week Ending
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
Week 1
November 28, 2018
Week 2
December 6, 2018
Week 3
December 12, 2018
Week 4
December 19, 2018
Week 5
December 28, 2018
Week 43
September 18, 2019
Week 44
September 26, 2019
Week 45
October 2, 2019
Week 46
October 9, 2019
Week 47
October 17, 2019
Week 48
October 23, 2019
Week 49
October 30, 2019
Week 50
November 6, 2019
Week 51
November 14, 2019
Week 52
November 20, 2019
Week 53
November 27, 2019
Week 54
December 4, 2019

Update On Three Western North Dakota Newspapers That Announced Their Closure Last Week -- December 4, 2019

From last week: top North Dakota non-energy story:
Now, some good news -- two of the three are "business as usual" after an angel drops in to purchase The Herald of New England and the Adams County Record. From The Dickinson Press

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Random thoughts: things that amaze and/or amuse me.

Alexa: sometime in February, 2019, I wrote:  
Alexa: control your television set. Right now (2/19) I can make phone calls from Alexa/Echo Dot without lifting a finger; and I can listen to news and music from Echo Dot without lifting a finger. Why can I not select channels, control volume, and move from streaming to DVD to live television via Alexa/Echo Dot. 
Update: I now see that Alexa can do exactly that; voice command/control of your television (Amazon Fire TV Cube). Here's how to do it.

Telephone calls. I had completely forgotten that I could initiate and make telephone calls through Alexa without lifting a finger. The scary thing: I have no idea how Alexa does it. I did not do a thing except plug the Echo / Dot into the outlet.

Alexa hears everything. Yesterday, Alexa was playing jazz while we were eating lunch. I whispered to my wife something about Alexa. Alexa immediately cut in: despite our whispering, she had heard what we were talking about. Creepy. In a good sort of way. Why haven't "we" moved "911" emergency phone calls to Alexa, or maybe we have. I don't know. But I see all kinds of good uses for Alexa with regard to home invasion prevention if folks would worry less about privacy issues and more about safety issues. Don't take this out of context. But seriously, if I am experiencing an incapacitating event, and all I can do is shout, "Alexa, get me help," would I care if someone at Amazon heard that cry for help, identified my location, and sent "911" call to local fire department/police department? Probably not.

Polls. As "important" as Iowa and New Hampshire seem to be with regard to caucuses and primaries only 60-some days from now, we haven't seen a new Iowa poll or a new New Hampshire poll in quite some time.

Mars. I get a kick out of gazillionaires telling us we need to prepare to leave this planet for something else, like the moon or Mars. Let's just start with water. What amazes me is not that the Earth has any water at all, but it has so much water. As hard as "they" have looked, scientists apparently haven't had much luck finding oceans of water on any other planet in the universe.

Water. Speaking of water, Lake Mead is doing quite well this year, at least compared to 2017 and 2018. California mountains just received six feet of snow. Roads impassable but once cleared, ski resorts are going to have a great year. I've skied several times over the years -- we talking snow skiing here -- I've also water skied -- but as enjoyable as snow skiing is, it certainly is a lot of work. Just getting to the mountain; then the rentals; then the crowds; the awkward ski boots clomping through the chalets; multiple layers of clothes; uncomfortable lifts. I'm getting too old for this. This may be the first year in many years that I completely avoid the ski thing.

Hillary: recalculating .... recalculating ... recalculating. 

Back to Energy

Rigs don't matter: some people still don't get it. I run across all kinds of articles suggesting the US oil industry is in such disarray considering WTI is at $55 and yet oil companies and service companies can't seem to make money. Latest: Halliburton. Halliburton is closing its Oklahoma office, cutting 800 jobs. That headline, taken out of context, would suggest the US oil industry is in a huge recession, and US oil production is coming to an end. And yet, US production continues to set all-time records. And rig counts keep dropping. But somebody must be making money.

Biggest losers of the US shale "bust." From oilprice via Yahoo!Finance. I've said the same thing for years -- the only folks who have not made money in US shale are buy and hold investors. But I certainly wouldn't call US shale a bust.

Apple: worth more than the entire US stock index's energy sector. -- Financial Times. Paywall, but headline says it all. And that's the problem with paywalls, and media business models. The headline says it all, and we don't see any ads.

Saudi Aramco IPO: Prince Salman now has a real business to run. LOL. I've not read one thing to suggest the "new company" is anything but a scam, or at best, a "bond." You make your investment and then get a dividend. Does anyone see any growth in this "company"?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Bakken wells. I've spent the last few days updating the Antelope oil field. The wells are incredibly good. Only folks who have been following the Bakken from the beginning really know how good these wells are. I wish I knew the Permian as well so I could make a comparison, but I'm pretty much left with the EIA dashboards to compare. And based on what little I know, mano a mano, Permian well vs a Bakken well, there is simply no comparison. These Antelope-Sanish wells are incredible. I still don't understand the geology of the Antelope. I thought it was all "Sanish" but sundry forms suggest both Three Forks ("Sanish") and middle Bakken are found in the Antelope oil field.

Missouri Ridge

Missouri Ridge oil field: I had forgotten all about the Missouri Ridge oil field until this past week. I had completely forgotten that I even linked it at my site linking oil fields I track. But there it is, the Missouri Ridge oil field, which I first discussed on August 11, 2011, almost a decade ago. Ten years ago we were not talking about tier one or tier two or tier three oil fields in the Bakken but had we been, I doubt I would have considered Missouri Ridge a tier one location. But, wow, it's turned into quite a field based on recent Oasis wells.

Back in 2011: here is how much oil has been taken out of those three sections by formation:
  • Missouri Ridge-Bakken: 79,000 bbls
  • Missouri Ridge- Birdbear: 1,248,034 bbls (yup, million)
  • Missouri Ridge-Madison: 464,857 bbls
  • Missouri Ridge-Red River: 1,274,334 bbls (yup, million)
  • Missouri Ridge-Stonewall: 738,000
Production as of September, 2019 (confidential production not included in these totals):
  • Missouri Ridge-Bakken: 6,279,497 bbls (43 wells)
  • Missouri Ridge- Birdbear: 1,353,746 bbls
  • Missouri Ridge-Madison: 501,240 bbls
  • Missouri Ridge-Red River: 1,274,401 bbls
  • Missouri Ridge-Stonewall: 764,393 bbls

Only One Well Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- December 4, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5564533964

Just one well coming off the confidential list today -- Wednesday, December 4, 2019: 13 for the month; 218 for the quarter:
  • 35610, 1,078, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-3, Three Forks, 36 stages; 8.4 million lbs; sand, no ceramic; Ross, t6/19; cum 56K 10/19;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
RBN Energy: an asset-level evaluation of midstreamers' 2020 prospects.
As a most eventful decade for the U.S. energy industry draws to a close and 2020 looms, it’s a perfect time to consider what’s ahead for the midstream sector — and, more important from an investor’s standpoint, for the individual companies within it. The last few years have driven home the point that while all midstreamers are impacted to some degree by what happens on a macro-level, the relative success of each company is tied to the myriad decisions its leaders make over time regarding which basins and hubs to focus on and which assets to build, expand, acquire or divest. Assessing these micro-level assets and the contributions they each make to a company’s bottom line requires particularly deep analysis. Today, we discuss key themes and findings from East Daley Capital’s newly issued 2020 Midstream Guidance Outlook.