Tuesday, October 15, 2019

One Last Push Before Winter? Rigs Up To 60 In North Dakota -- October 15, 2019

Dithering: LOL. Brexit will be delayed at least another year.

Slow News Day

DUCs: over at twitter --

You know it's a slow news day when analysts are debating this issue. 

I am not privy to the debate to which the good doctor refers. Having said that, the EIA reports that DUCs in US shale regions fell by 206 month-over-month to 7,740, according to a tweet. It would be nice to know the trend; a snapshot in time has no value whatsoever. At least not to me.

My two cents worth: it is virtually impossible to know exactly how many DUCs there are at any one time. Under the best of circumstances, it appears it takes about two weeks for what happens in the field to be reported to the public. With regard to quality of the DUCs, I don't have statistical data, but anecdotally, IPs for DUCs seem to be better than IPs of wells that are completed soon after they reach total depth. Certainly, DUCs are no "worse" than wells that are completed immediately.

I haven't found it yet, but I assume there's a discussion somewhere over at twitter asking how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

For the record: I track the number of DUCs in the Bakken at this post.

It would be interesting to know who/when/where the acronym DUCs was coined. I think we had this discussion before. My hunch is that DUCs was an acronym coined by the NDIC. Just saying.


Delayed: due to federal holiday Monday, it appears reporting of some weekly data will be delayed a day.
Back to the Bakken 

Active rigs:

Active Rigs6068593166

Three new permits, #37090 - #37092, inclusive:
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has permits for a 3-well Ness pad in section 21-154-91, Sanish oil field
One completed well:
  • 06900, multi-formation well; see belwo; New Horizon Resources, Harold Haugen 25-1, Divide County
Two permits canceled:
  • Slawson: one Gunslinger Federal permit in McKenzie County
  • Enerplu: one Walley permit in Dunn County
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 35415, 560, Kraken, Dragseth 9-4 6TFH, Winner oil field, t10/19; cum --;
  • 35416, 764, Kraken, Dragseth 9-4 5H, Winner oil field, t10/19; cum --;
  • 35426, 592, Kraken, Knox 16-21 5H, Winner oil field, t9/19; cum --;
  • 35427, 424, Kraken, Know 16-21 4TFH, Winner oil field, t09/19; cum --; 
Harold Haugen Re-Entry Well
The well:
  • 6900, New Horizon Resources, LLC, Harold Haugen 25-1, Daneville, first drilled in 1979 - 40 years ago
Scout ticket:

Sundry form to re-enter:
  • approximate start date: August 15, 2019
  • plug Red River
  • enter/perforate: Stonewall/Gunton

New operator: January 19, 2018: change of operator from Earthstone Operating, LLC, to New Horizon Resources, LLC.

Recent monthly production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
RED RIVER8-20191740176928000
RED RIVER7-201931922191427000
RED RIVER6-2019302701202000
RED RIVER5-2019301432141375000
RED RIVER4-2019275192791507000
RED RIVER3-20193012902067000
RED RIVER2-20190000000
RED RIVER1-20191000000
RED RIVER12-20183114601067000
RED RIVER11-20180000000
RED RIVER10-201817113224746000


  1. Shaleprofile.com put out a story on the 14th, that ND production was up about 2% (~35,000 bopd).

    Their report was preliminary as the Director's Cut not out--not sure how they access the data, but oh well.

    Shaleprofile only covers the modern hz production, but if you add legacy wells, of about 40,000 bopd, would put ND at something close to 1.475 MM bopd.

    See: https://shaleprofile.com/2019/10/14/north-dakota-update-through-august-2019/

    1. My hunch is "DrillingInfo" estimates these numbers based on pretty good data. We will now Friday, October 18, 2019, when the August data is released by the NDIC.

  2. the drop of 206 DUCs is the largest on record; however, there are still 6.2% more DUCs left than a year ago..

    1. Thank you; agree completely with what you appear to be suggesting.

      Hey, you know, it just occurred to me. I was wrong; too harsh on this tweet. I've been very vocal on how week-to-week rig counts are less relevant with shale and I've been suggesting shale analysts look for better / different metrics.

      Well, finally, they are looking at a different metric, one that is unique to shale: DUCs.

      So, I was wrong/premature to suggest this was "crazy" talk -- a snapshot in time is not particularly helpful but perhaps they will start tracking DUCs.