Tuesday, September 17, 2019

That WTI Surge In Price? Already Pulling Back? -- September 17, 2019

Failure to communicate: during the "rough days" of the Bakken (2014 - 2016) and early in the boom, it's my recollection that oilprice and other peak oil sites were quick to print any story casting doubt on the Bakken. Last month, North Dakota hit an all-time production record. Quick to report any oil story, no matter how obscure, oilprice completely ignored that story. To date, oilprice has never mentioned it. Now, North Dakota sets an all-time production record for the second consecutive month. And oilprice again completely ignores the story.

Post attack: there are two stories percolating under the surface -- now that WTI is "sort of" back where it started and still way, way below what some thought would happen. The two stories:
  • the numbers don't add up; all this hysteria over 5% of the world's total production?
  • US shale is is the swing producer
LOL: I suggested this tongue-in-cheek (and as a complete joke) that Saudi Arabia orchestrated this whole thing ("false flag"; "make it look like suicide") to move the price of oil. Well, it turns out, some of those commenting elsewhere are actually suggesting that Saudi Arabia was behind this as a "real" possibility. And we move on.

WTI: surges yesterday. Barely reaches $60, and now this a.m. dropping back. See above.

Back to the Bakken

Only one well coming off confidential list today - Tuesday, September 17, 2019: 44 for the month; 176 for the quarter:
35523, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-4, 
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6266563267

RBN Energy: Low Alerta gas storage is not spooking the AECO winter market, yet.
Alberta natural gas storage, one of the largest regional storage hubs in North America, is experiencing one of its slowest cumulative storage injection rates in years and could be headed to a 13-year low for storage levels by the end of the current injection season. That may seem ominous for the chilly Alberta and Canadian winter heating season, not to mention gas exports to the U.S. So far, though, winter gas forward prices for the Western Canadian gas price benchmark of AECO have registered a relatively modest market response, staying in line with last winter’s average spot price. Today, we take a closer look at the market’s apparent lack of concern over low Alberta gas storage.
Canadian natural gas storage is not often a topic in the RBN blogosphere, but with Alberta — the province with more gas storage capacity than any other — showing remarkably low storage levels for late summer, and the U.S. still a steady gas taker of Western Canadian gas during the winter, the storage deficit there is likely to factor into how the North American gas market balances this winter. Alberta’s gas storage capacity is estimated at 499 Bcf by the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) and easily dwarfs that of any other province in Canada. The next-closest competitor would be Ontario at 279 Bcf of storage capacity. Among the U.S. states, Alberta’s storage capacity would rank third, behind only Michigan (686 Bcf) and Texas (549 Bcf), based on capacity data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). On that basis, it’s safe to say that Alberta is a major player in the North American gas storage business.

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