Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Is It Time For Saudi Arabia To Panic Yet? -- September 25, 2019

Let's see what the EIA numbers were:

  • EIA US crude oil inventory, week-over-week: an increase of 2.4 million bbls; Big_Orrin was off by a country mile, or as much as a long-reach horizontal lateral
  • EIA US crude oil inventory: 419.5 million bbls; supposedly at the 5-year average
  • but look at this: refineries operating at 89.8% capacity (a rainstorm called Imelda shut down the Exxon refinery in Houston)
  • even so, gasoline production increased last week, who wudda thought?
  • distillate fuel production decreased last week but not by much
WTI: after the EIA report -- down a whopping $1.26; down 2.2%; and now trading at $56.03. Even worse for Saudi Arabia, who is not yet back in business, is selling what they have with a Brent price of barely breaking $60.

US shale, the swing producer:
  • Saudi loses half (or more) of its export capacity
  • a rainstorm shuts down (some) operations along the US coast 
  • crude oil imports dropped an astounding 672,000 bopd (over a denominator of about 6.5 million bopd, or 10%)
    • and, yet, US gasoline production actually increased last week, albeit not much
  • US gasoline production over past four weeks averaged 9.4 million bbls; last week production came in at 10.2 million bbls -- an 8.5% increase -- and that's with Exxon's largest refinery along the coast shut down for the week (assuming that was the week that was, and I could be wrong) -- Focus on Fracking will sort this out in the weekly Sunday note

Re-balancing:
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Week 10
January 31, 2019
0.9
445.9
Week 11
February 6, 2019
1.3
447.2
Week 12
February 13, 2019
3.6
450.8
Week 13
February 21, 2019
3.7
454.5
Week 14
February 27, 2019
-8.6
445.9
Week 15
March 6, 2019
7.1
452.9
Week 16
March 13, 2019
-3.9
449.1
Week 17
March 20, 2019
-9.6
439.5
Week 18
March 27, 2019
2.8
442.3
Week 19
April 3, 2019
7.2
449.5
Week 20
April 10, 2019
7.0
456.5
Week 21
April 17, 2019
-1.4
455.2
Week 22
April 24, 2019
5.5
460.1
Week 23
May 1, 2019
9.9
470.6
Week 24
May 8, 2019
-4.0
466.6
Week 25
May 15, 2019
5.4
472.0
Week 26
May 22, 2019
4.7
476.8
Week 27
May 30, 2019
-0.3
476.5
Week 28
June 5, 2019
6.8
483.3
Week 29
June 12, 2019
2.2
485.5
Week 30
June 19, 2019
-3.1
482.4
Week 31
June 26, 2019
-12.8
469.6
Week 32
July 3, 2019
-1.1
468.5
Week 33
July 10, 2019
-9.5
459.0
Week 34
July 17, 2019
-3.1
455.9
Week 35
July 24, 2019
-10.8
445.1
Week 36
July 31, 2019
-8.5
436.5
Week 37
August 7, 2019
2.4
438.9
Week 38
August 14, 2019
1.6
440.5
Week 29
August 21, 2019
-2.7
437.8
Week 30
August 28, 2019
-10.0
427.8
Week 31
September 5, 2019
-4.8
423.0
Week 32
September 11, 2019
-6.9
416.1
Week 33
September 18, 2019
1.1
417.1
Week 34
September 26, 2019
2.4
419.5

2 comments:

  1. here's what i have on gasoline output...

    even with the decrease in the amount of oil being refined, gasoline output from our refineries was quite a bit higher, increasing by 789,000 barrels per day to 10,240,000 barrels per day during the week ending September 20th, after our refineries' gasoline output had decreased by 909,000 barrels per day to a nine month low the prior week...with that big increase in gasoline output, this week's gasoline production was 4.1% higher than the 9,832,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the same week of last year....

    weird swings in gasoline production like that are usually due to some kind of adjustment for ethanol blending, although i didn't check those details this week..year over year comparisons at this time of year are also subject to whatever hurricanes might have been around last September, so pass the grains of salt..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you, much appreciated. I was just amazed to see how much gasoline could be produced with decreased refinery capacity on a percentage basis.

      Delete