Sunday, April 7, 2019

Random Look At GDP -- April 7, 2019

In all the years I've been blogging about the Bakken, I don't think I've spent much time on the GDP of North Dakota.

Some links and data points (some figures rounded):
  • February 26, 2019, 3Q18, North Dakota GDP, FRED: $56 billion 
    • recent low: $51 billion, 1Q16
    • recent high: $60 billion 4Q14
    • ND economy barely affected by recession, 2007 - 2009 timeframe
    • Bakken hits its stride, 2012, GDP of $53 billion, 4Q12
    • 2Q09: a GDP of only $31 billion
    • so, in round numbers, 30-second sound bite
    • ND GDP with the Bakken: $50 billion - $60 billion
    • ND GDP before the Bakken: $25 billion - $30 billion
    • ND GPD as percentage of the US GDP: 
    • ND ranks number 46 or thereabouts
    • ND GDP represents 0.29% of US GDP
  • South Dakota GDP, February 26, 2019, FRED, 3Q18: $52 billion
    • even without oil, SD GDP almost matches that of North Dakota
    • I never would have guessed
    • steady, almost predictable growth since 2009
  • Same period, same source: FRED, 3Q18 (again, rounded)
US GDP: link here (same source), $21 trillion

Comments regarding changes in GDP:
  • of the few states at which I looked, ND has had some of the greatest swings in GDP rate of growth (up or down)
  • perhaps the only other state with such wide swings: Oklahoma
  • the other major "oil" state Louisiana has wide swings
  • another state with wide swings: NM
  • a state hit particularly hard by the 2007 - 2009 recession, Wyoming, has not recovered;
  • Colorado has had a spectacular rise in GDP since 2009; minimally affected by the 2007 - 2009 recession; it will be interesting to check Colorado's change in GDP now that the oil industry is dead
  • CT shows signs of vibrant life since 2016; very, very interesting
  • MI: doing very, very well; things looked a little dicey in 2016, but after 2016, took a huge move to the upside

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