Sunday, March 31, 2019

Sunday, March 31, 2019, T+88, Part 3 -- Nothing About The Bakken (Well, Almost Nothing)

Capitalism explained. At the sidebar at the right

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

WTI, futures: $60.35.

Look at this headline over at oilprice: as onshore drilling costs soar in the Permian and other popular shale patches, Big Oil is looking offshore for solutions. Click bait. No doubt. I saw the headline. Did not click on the story. Shale: short-cycle. Off-shore: years and years of effort. Huge CAPEX. So we will see where this goes. I'm not aware that costs are soaring in the Bakken.

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Park City, Utah



Sunday, March 31, 2019, T+88, Part 2

March Madness. So, now #3 Texas Tech takes on #2 Michigan State next week in the semi-finals. Auburn will take on Virginia. My money (if I bet, and I don't) is on this outcome : Michigan State vs Virginia in the finals, with Virginia taking the championship, though I would like my sentimental favorite Auburn to take it all.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

The market, futures:
  • CNN: Dow up 120 points -- Alaska Air Group down over 3%
  • CNBC: Dow up 118 points --  Harris-O'Rourke ticket has the best chance against Trump. 
  • Cramer: use your "mad money" to buy equities now
I spent much of the afternoon in a Japanese bookstore near Plano, TX, north of Dallas -- a most fascinating afternoon. We try to visit the bookstore at least every two weeks.

Light rail: another fail. Albuquerque, NM. From The Wall Street Journal. Advocates force businesses along historic Route 66 to suffer while they indulge their transit fantasies. And this story plays out every day across the US.

Coal: the more I read, the more I "know" coal will be the story in 2030. I won't be around to see it. 

TCM: where the boys are. The movie released, 1960. The birth control pill first approved for use in the United States in 1960.
The title song "Where the Boys Are" was sung by Connie Francis, who also co-starred in a supporting role. The film was aimed at the teen market, and it inspired many American college students to head to Fort Lauderdale for their annual spring break. Where the Boys Are was one of the first teen films to explore adolescent sexuality and the changing sexual morals and attitudes among American college youth. It won Laurel awards for Best Comedy of the Year and Best Comedy Actress (Paula Prentiss).
Where The Boys Are, Connie Francis

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Beef

In case you were wondering, of if you need something for that cocktail party later this week: Japan's "top three" wagyu brands — Matsusaka Ushi, Kobe Beef, and Ohmi (Omi) beef — all hail from the Kansai region of Japan.

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Magazine B

Annual 10-issue subscription, $140, with postage additional. Link here.

Individual copies available on Amazon for $25. "Portland" was issue number 58. Most current issue, "Hay," #72, unless you count #50, "Seoul (version 2)." Hay:
Founded in 2002 by Rolf and Mette Hay in Copenhagen, Denmark, Hay is a home and lifestyle brand offering a wide selection of essential products from home and office furniture to accessories such as mirrors, hangers, and glassware.
Firmly rooted in their design philosophy, Hay has collaborated with emerging designers and brands to expand their scope, infusing the latest technology into traditional Danish aesthetics. Hay’s design, pricing, and retail strategies have proven to be deliberate in advocating a unique Danish style suited for contemporary living.
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Gullible

When one spends any time in a Japanese bookstore, one is reminded that Algore et al is asking the rest of us to reduce our "carbon" footprint, to live without, to aspire to less while the elites are doing just the opposite.

I Go To Pieces, Peter and Gordon

Sunday, March 31, 2019, T+88, Part 1 -- Nothing About The Bakken

YES!!! Duke finally beaten.

Finally.

Lost on a free throw.

The week has hardly begun and already too much to report.

First, "The Day The Dinosaurs Died: A young paleontologist may have discovered a record of the most significant event in the history of life on Earth." From The New Yorker. I posted this story from another source earlier this week (month?). Archived.

Three great sports events today:
  • Kisner won the golf tournament; Tiger Woods went home yesterday, Saturday.
  • Hamlin won the NASCAR race. Kyle Busch would have won but ran into unexpected / unknown problems with less than 50 (?) laps left to go. 
  • March Madness: Auburn (5) moves on, beating #2, Kentucky. Duke (1) now in a close one with Michigan State. Duke is lucky to have gotten this far; should have lost either of two earlier games. If Duke pulls this one, they deserve to win the national championship. [Duke lost.]
Futures: look good. Not good. Great!!!! This is the perfect market.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Vacation: looking to spend time at Flathead Lake in June (2019).

Coal: the more I read, the more I "know" that coal will be the story in 2030. Period. Dot. No matter what anyone else says.

Back to the dinosaur story. I will have to see what's new. I thought the story was already well known. From the story:
  • 66 million years ago
  • an asteroid hits the Yucat√°n peninsula
  • the Cretaceous period ends and the Paleogene period begins
  • Los Alamos National Laboratory; Q Machine -- one of the world's most powerful computers: modeled the impact
  • energy released: a billion Hiroshima bombs
  • blobs of glass, tektites, blanketed the Western Hemisphere
  • as the earth rotated, the airborne material fell; set fire to the entire Indian subcontinent
  • fires eventually consumed about 70% of the world's forest
  • giant tsunamis
  • the damage had only begun
  • not all details known, but it is know that the soot prevented all sunlight from reaching the plane'ts surface for months
  • photosynthesis all but stopped, killing most plants
  • oxygen in the atmosphere plummeted
  • after the fires died down, Earth plunged into a period of cold, perhaps even a deep freeze
  • Earth's two essential food chains, in the sea and on land, collapse
  • 75% of all species went extinct  
  • more than 99.9999% of all living organisms on Earth died; the carbon cycle came to a halt
  • KT boundary: marks the dividing line between the Kretaceous and the Tertiary period )the Teritary has been redefined as the Paleogene)
And finally here's the mystery:
One of the central mysteries of paleontology is the so-called “three-­metre problem.” In a century and a half of assiduous searching, almost no dinosaur remains have been found in the layers three metres, or about nine feet, below the KT boundary, a depth representing many thousands of years. Consequently, numerous paleontologists have argued that the dinosaurs were on the way to extinction long before the asteroid struck, owing perhaps to the volcanic eruptions and climate change. Other scientists have countered that the three-metre problem merely reflects how hard it is to find fossils. Sooner or later, they’ve contended, a scientist will discover dinosaurs much closer to the moment of destruction.
Conclusion here.

Something Going On With The EOG Riverview Wells In Clarks Creek? -- March 31, 2019

The EOG Riverview wells in Clarks Creek have been on the conf list "forever. The wells are tracked here.

Now, two great, older Riverview wells, have come off-line which usually suggests something going on in the area. Flooding? The two wells taken off line; note -- they are nice wells, producing over 1500 bbls/month and producing since 2012:
  • 22200, 528, EOG, Riverview4-3031H, Clarks Creek, t7/12; cum 459K 2/19;
  • 22199, 1,088, EOG, Riverview 100-3031H, Clarks Creek, t6/12; cum 480K 2/19; 
Kennedy-Miles wells in Dimmick Lake off line in 1/19 and 2/19. The wells are tracked here.

EOG has canceled most of their West Clark wells in Clarks Creek. The wells are tracked here.

Initial Production For Selected Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- March 31, 2019

Six months ago it was early October, 2018.

Production data for selected wells coming off confidential list this next week. Full list is posted here. Very few wells coming off the confidential list this next week are reporting any production. In general, no initial production suggests a DUC.

34999, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Jaeger State 2-34-26H-144-97L, Cabernet,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-2019148287763
12-2018169627470
11-201891943658
10-201876803292
 
34620, conf, Enerplus Camelia 148-94-16CH, Eagle Nest,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-201915054405
1-201972516678
12-201892917159
11-2018142409267
10-20181538511890
 
33665, conf, MRO, Wilkinson USA 11-1H, Reunion Bay,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-2019241190
 
34959, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Federal Staael 2-32-5H-160-90L, Dimond,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-201985610
1-2019104242302
12-201895683659
11-2018105383442
10-20188994953

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- March 31, 2019

Six months ago it was early October, 2018

This is one of the most disappointing lists I have posted in a long time. Very few wells coming off the confidential list this next week are reporting any production. In general, no initial production suggests a DUC.


Monday April 8, 2019:
35216, conf, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5A, North Fork, no production data, 
33681, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Nelson 7-30-31-157N-99W TFH,  Lone Tree Lake, no production data,


Sunday, April 7, 2019:
30933, conf, Armstrong Operating, Pederson 33-3, Hamlet,, no production data, 

Saturday, April 6, 2019:
35217, conf, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5F, North Fork, no production data, 
34999, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Jaeger State 2-34-26H-144-97L, Cabernet, producing, 
34620, conf, Enerplus Camelia 148-94-16CH, Eagle Nest, producing, 
33665, conf, MRO, Wilkinson USA 11-1H, Reunion Bay, producing, 

Friday, April 5, 2019:
35211, conf, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5H, North Fork, no production data, 

Thursday, April 4, 2019:
35516, conf, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-5-8-12H, Siverston, no production data, 
35500, conf, RimRock Oil & Gas, MC MHA 24-10-2TFH, Moccasin Creek, no production data,
34410, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dorothy 19-18-158N-98W MBH, Rainbow, no production data, 
33667, conf, MRO, Dutton USA 21-1TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
33666, conf, MRO, Deserly USA 11-1TFH, Reunion Bay, producing, albeit not much,

Wednesday, April 3, 2019:
35499, conf, RimRock Oil & Gas, MC MHA 24-10HU, Moccasin Creek, no production data, 
35390, conf, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-3-8-8HLW, Siverston, no production data, 

Tuesday, April 2, 2019:
35502, conf,  RimRock Oil & Gas, MC MHA 24-10-3H, Moccasin Creek, no production data, 35390
35391, conf, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-5-8-7H, Siverston, no production data,
34959, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Federal Staael 2-32-5H-160-90L, Dimond, producing, 
34412, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dorothy 4-19-18-158N-98W MBH, Rainbow, no production data, 
34411, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dois 7-19-18-158N-98W TFH, Rainbow, no production data,
34409, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dois 6-19-18-158N-98W MBH, Rainbow, no production data, 
33668, conf, MRO, Fannie USA 21-1H, Reunion Bay, no production data,
29891, conf,  Lime Rock Resources, William Sadowsky 7-4-9H-142-96, Manning, producing, albeit not much;

Monday, April 1, 2019: 4 wells for the month; 4 wells for the quarter
35501, conf, Rimrock Oil, MC MHA 24-10-3TFH, Moccasin Creek, no production data,
35436, conf, XTO, Emma 31X-30HXE, Alkali Creek, no production data,
35219, conf, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5HXE, North Fork, no production data,
35218, conf, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5D, North Fork, no production data,

Sunday, March 31, 2019: 126 wells for the month; 346 wells for the quarter
None: there was no September 31 six months ago

Saturday, March 30, 2019: 126 wells for the month; 346 wells for the quarter
35435, conf, XTO, Emma 31X-30B, 
35267, conf, MRO, Ctherine 44-35H, 
34911, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-13-1H 2

Nothing About The Bakken -- March 31, 2019, T+88

Hillary Clinton quietly has her Arkansas law license reinstated. And, here.

Polar resurgence. This story is now several weeks (months?) old but need to get it posted for the archives. That decrease in the polar bear population. Nothing to do with global warming; simply over-hunted. Now? Polar bear population at record highs. Link here.

Coal. Lying with graphs. Not going anywhere soon. China and India both given a pass.

Be sure to check in on the linked blogs at the sidebar at the right.

Weekly, every Sunday, we get an exhaustive update at "focus on fracking."

Powerline: highly enjoyably conservative blog.

Deplorable Climate Science Blog, one of the best global warming sites on the net. The wildlife photography is second to none.

Not a lot of people know that; the coal stories above were linked at that site.

Ice Age Now: US.

Climate Depot: UK.

Joanna Nova: Australia.

Zero Hedge: banned by Facebook.


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Breakfast Before Skiing, Park City, UT
Einstein's Bagels


Saturday, March 30, 2019

Week 13: March 24, 2019 -- March 30, 2019

Top international story this past week: Mexico scrambles to save its oil industry;

Biggest non-energy story this past week: Special Counsel Robert Mueller releases report; no collusion.

National energy stories of the week:
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
  • major flooding; oil wells impacted; county roads closed; dozens of McKenzie County homes evacuated; flooding is a result  of unusually thick ice causing a jam at the confluence
  • misallocation of tax collected from oil to be made right: Land Commissioner Jodi Smith discovered that the state's share of extraction tax collected from oil produced on the Fort Berthold Reservation had not been deposited in the Common Schools Trust Fund, the Foundation Aid Stabilization Fund and the Resources Trust Fund. All totaled, the three funds should have received about $270 million more than they did
  • pore space legislation passes house; now headed for house-senate conference
  • Lynn Helms travels to Washington State to oppose bill that would block Bakken CBR
  • ONEOK Bakken Pipeline proposing a 77-mile NGL pipeline -- from Demicks Lake NGP Plant in McKenzie County to Richland County, Montana; 74 miles of that 77-mile pipeline inside ND; 20-inch diamter; 40,000 bpd; y-grade NGLs (ethane, propane, butanes, iso-butate mix, pentanes, natural gasoline; $125 mllion project; ND portion entirely within McKenzie County
  • dispute over Meridian refinery near national park heats up in state court -- Associated Press
  • U.S. to overtake Russia in five years: A flood of U.S. oil exports is coming -- Bloomberg  
Operations
CLR to drill 18 wells in 2560-acre unit; already "a dozen" wells in that area

Bakken 101
Bakken: #1 in NGPL yield among US shale plays

Fracking
Halo: Alfred Old Dog 
Halo: Rolf well; and, here;
Major affect on national economy
Frack sand revolution

Miscellaneous
Ballantyne acquires about 140 Crescent Point Energy wells in Bottineau County
Price of gasoline to soar: Obama killed the Keystone XL; US can't get enough heavy oil 
Tier 2/tier 3 looking good
Bakken, Niobrara producing at all-time highs -- RBN Energy
Commentary

Skiing Park City, Utah -- March 30, 2019

The three granddaughters skiing, Park City, Utah, March 30, 2019:


Arianna, high school, way up front, in blue, in the lead.

Olivia, middle school, in red, next.

Sophia, 4 years ten months old, in the foreground, in blue, no poles.

Dad, filming.

Park City, Utah:

Saturday, March 30, 2019, T+87, Part 3 -- President Trump: Bestow The Presidential Medal Of Freedom on Robert Mueller

Run, don't walk, to get this to the president's chief of staff (whoever that might be this week).  

Bestow the Presidential Medal of Freedom on Robert Mueller.
The Presidential Medal of Freedom is an award bestowed by the President of the United States. The Presidential Medal of Freedom and the Congressional Gold Medal are the highest civilian awards of the United States. It recognizes those people who have made "an especially meritorious contribution to the security or national interests of the United States, world peace, cultural or other significant public or private endeavors". The award is not limited to U.S. citizens and, while it is a civilian award, it can also be awarded to military personnel and worn on the uniform.
What a hoot.

Float his name for the short list for RBG's seat on the Supreme Court.

Too bad, the president recently appointed a new US attorney general. Robert Mueller should have had that job.

US senator. Neither senate office comes up for election in New York in 2020, but a senate office in the commonwealth of Virginia comes up in 2020.

Re-name the Robert F. Kennedy Department of Justice building.

Biography:
Robert Swan Mueller III born August 7, 1944) is an American lawyer, government official, and former soldier who served as the sixth director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), from 2001 to 2013.
Between 2017 and 2019, he was the Special Counsel of the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections and related matters.
A graduate of Princeton University and New York University, Mueller served as a Marine Corps officer during the Vietnam War, receiving a Bronze Star for heroism and a Purple Heart. He subsequently attended the University of Virginia School of Law. Mueller is a registered Republican in Washington, D.C., and was appointed and reappointed to Senate-confirmed positions by presidents George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama.
When you read that bio, but even more importantly, when you read "ten things you might no know about Robert Mueller," you understand immediately why he was not going to tarnish his legacy at this point in his career.

Similar, but longer list, at CNN.

Religion: not known. Probably not Catholic based on family history, personal education, but if he's Catholic, consider sainthood.

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The iGeneration

Last night I observed Sophia, age 4 years 10 months, as she watched the "monitor" at the self-serve check in / boarding pass / baggage tag kiosk at American Airlines last night, on their way to Utah for a weekend of skiing.

She is incredibly adept at picking up any mobile device or using any laptop or tablet to take photos, play games, or re-set the settings. Or even the word processor, spelling her name and "jaguar." She has and uses a $19-disposable digital camera (it has more than 900 photos on a 4GB SanDisk). She punches in security codes to get into TutorTime. She asks me what the various indicators on the Toyota Civic dashboard mean when we drive to school. She punches in security codes at our apartment complex.

Her life is digital.

At the American Airlines kiosk, her dad was checking in four people, handing out tickets to each of his three daughters and getting baggage tags for four pieces of luggage. It took a fair amount of time, but the longer the better. It gave Sophia more time to really study what was happening. Her two older sisters seemed nonplussed, just a ritual through which to go, but for Sophia it appeared to be another electronic "game." And apparently her dad "won." He got four boarding passes, and four baggage tags.

I can't wait to teach her how to use an ATM. LOL. Benjamins are more useful than boarding passes. Speaking of which: why did they generate boarding passes? Why not simply use their iPhones when going through security and boarding? I assume they could have but their father probably wanted to make sure there were no glitches. And besides, Sophia really seemed to enjoy the process.

She enjoyed handing her boarding pass to TSA for consideration. I don't know if Corky was subjected to a full-body pat down.

Saturday, March 30, 2019, T+87, Part 2

I have not read the article. I have read the headline. That's all.

I assume some day I will read the article. But not today.

Link here.


Having said that I would love to write a note regarding all this, and connecting all the dots, but it is so tedious.

Suffice it to say, the mainstream media fails to report the "real" story here.

I can't wait to start hearing California progressives complaining about the high cost of gasoline. I assume Teslas will fly out of showrooms this summer. Or from wherever they fly.

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The Apple Page

Link here at The Bismarck Tribune.

Without question, this is my favorite "app" on the iPhone. It is absolutely incredible. I assumed everyone knew what it was; I assumed everyone used it. I assume it was found across all platforms. Apparently not.

I find it amazing that The Bismarck Tribune posted such a great "ad" for Apple.

Saturday, March 30, 2019, T+87, Part 1

Beating a dead horse: the jobs data earlier this week -- first time unemployment claims -- I remember what a big deal these numbers were for Barack Obama when they were "good" -- which was seldom. But with the Trump administration, the numbers are pretty much ignored by the mainstream media -- despite some of the best numbers ever -- again, from earlier this week --
First time unemployment claims well below consensus and prior week claims revised strongly downward. Headlines anywhere? Nope.

Wow, this is incredible data being post today:

Jobless claims, link here:
  • prior: 221K
  • revised down: 216K
  • consensus: 225K 
  • actual: 211K
Look at that. First, the numbers from the previous week were even better than previously reported. The previous week's numbers were revised down from 221,000 first time unemployment claims to 216,000.

Then, this most recent week. The consensus? First time unemployment claims would jump from 221,000 (actually 216,000) to 225,000 (an increase of 9,000 from the previous week). In fact, the numbers dropped from 221,000 (unrevised and from which the analysts were working) to 211,000. 

That "hit" story on Biden. No one could have missed the most recent #MeToo story. With one well-timed story, Hillary has effectively taken Biden out of the race. Not one thing was new about that story; it did not tell us anything we didn't already know about Biden, but the source! Wow! The "allegation" came from a former Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor in Nevada. And look at the huge play this story got, at The Cut in which the spread looks like it came directly from The New York Times or the magazine insert. It's the banner headline at Drudge and it will be there for several days. Well-played Hillary. I'm still convinced that Hillary will fly in on her broom at a brokered DNC convention.

Tom Steyer: pretty much out of the news. Even googling, it's hard to find "recent news" regarding the billionaire suffering from TDS. Back in January he said he would not run for president. Now, with the release of the Mueller Report he pretty much further marginalized. All that congressional impeachment talk? Pretty much over. Pelosi knew early on the whole thing was bogus and that explains why why put the kabosh on the impeachment talk.


Mueller report: earlier I posted the losers following the release of the Mueller Report. The big winners? Jared and Ivanka. Sure, the SDNY  is still going after President Trump but I don't hear much talk about SDNY going after Jared and Ivanka.

Right, Wrong, Indifferent. Whether you like President Trump or not, one has to admit he's the smartest man in the room willing to call it like it is. Three specifics:
  • 100% right on the Fed's mistake raising rates when it did
  • predicting the soaring gasoline prices now being report, and knowing the reason -- unlike his predecessor
  • seeing the southern border immigration crisis months earlier
He was snookered by North Korea: the best 30-second sound bite -- the North Korean government/Kim do not see their government broken; there's nothing to be fixed; they are simply negotiating for relief on sanctions, or as they probably call them, "trade talks" or trade negotiations; in other words, business as usual.

He gave Saudi Arabia a huge pass on the Khashoggi bone saw execution -- but so did almost everyone else, including the EU and the UN. The most galling part of all this, at least for Trump: Saudi refusing to increase heavy oil exports to the US when most needed. 

Under his watch, the EU became even more dependent on Russia for energy, but that would have happened regardless of who was president.

Polarizing? It takes two to tango. Everyone knows from where the resistance is coming. The Mueller Report now becomes Exhibit A.

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Brexit

The big winners: the Brussels bureaucracy. They now have free rein.

The big losers: the English. The Scots? Hard to say. But definitely the English. On top of everything else, an "election" was stolen.

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Turkey

Burned through a third of its foreign reserves trying to shore up the lira.

Link here.

Another failed state.

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Starbucks Is Changing Their "Rewards" Program

I have never used Starbucks rewards program. That's not entirely true. Years ago I used their reweards program  on a couple of occasions but when they changed to their current "stars" reward system some years ago I quit using my rewards. Seemed too complicated.

For the second time in the past week a Starbucks barista commented on the "huge" number of stars I have and should be using my rewards. Today, the barista told me that again, and told me that Starbucks would be changing their rewards system in mid-April and it would be less generous.

Right now, once one has "x" number of stars -- based on dollar amount -- one can use those stars for any food or drink offered in the cafe regardless of price. So, 275 stars (or whatever the nubmer is) -- when one reaches that number -- one can order any item, from a $2.00 cup of coffee to a $10 fruit and cheese entree, say "free" and the barista clicks on the "free" button on the register and the custome gets that item for free.

Starting in mid-April, the free item will "cost" a proportionate number of stars based on the price of the item. So a cup of coffee might cost 175 stars while that $10 fruit and cheese thing might cost 2000 stars.

And I assume like always, one's stars expire over time.

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March Madness

The four #1 seeds are not playing like #1 seeds.

NDSU actually played up to Duke in the first half. Duke would have probably lost to UCF in the next round had it not been for showboating by a UCF player who missed an easy layup near the end of the game. That layup would have put the UCF team ahead by five or eight points (I forget) but the spread would have been such I"m not sure Duke would have had enough time to recover.

Last night, Duke barely survived again, playing a #4 seeded team, Virginia Tech.

The big upset last night: #1 UNC fell to a #5 seed and it was not even a close game.  Auburn did everyone a favor by taking out UNC early -- with Duke looking like anything but a #1 seed, it's any team's tournament to win.

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The Classic Movie Page

I didn't watch much of the games last night. Maybe five minutes tops. I was watching two movies, back-to-back on TCM (Turner Classic Movies) -- "Dial M For Murder" and "The Key."

I had seen "Dial M For Murder" at least once before, It's a classic Hitchcock movie and it "looks like" a classic Hitchcock movie. But in the big scheme of things: it's a "Columbo" episode -- the TV series. LOL.

The second movie, much less enjoyable, "The Key," with William Holden and Sophia Loren. The ending was very disappointing but after the movie ended, the "host" explained that the producer/writer/director shot two different endings. But one ending would not pass the Hollywood "code" (censors) at the time so the less satisfying ending was used. In fact, the less satisfying ending was probably "more realistic."

**********************************
Sophia And Family Are In Utah For The Weekend Skiing

This is their third ski trip this season:
  • ten days in New Mexico over the holidays
  • five days in Colorado during spring break
  • four-day weekend in Utah
Arianna and Olivia ski on their own. They took lessons up until late elementary school years and progressed to level 5. Sophia has enrolled in two ski schools this year, age four, and has progressed ot level 4. This trip to Utah she will ski with the family: no ski school.

Sophia and Olivia on their way to Utah (Arianna not in this picture):

Number 1 Reason Why I Love To Blog -- March 30, 2019

I assume folks saw the note yesterday from the daily activity report:

As noted, a reader alerted us to that back on October 17, 2018. That was about five months ago. At the time, I couldn't confirm it nor did any other reader provide any supporting evidence. Re-posting:
A reader asked about the relationship between "Ballantyne" and "Crescent Point Energy," whether one company had sold its interests in Bottineau County to the other.

I replied that I had lost the bubble on that. Neither the blog nor the internet in general offers much help.

My advice: visit the NDIC "well search" site and look at the permits.
In yesterday's daily activity report, the NDIC reported that about 140 wells had been transferred from Crescent Point Energy to Ballantyne.

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Spinal Men and Jesus -- The Book Page -- The Word Page

Wow, this is a real treat.

From The Language Instinct: How The Mind Creates Language, Steven Pinker, c. 1994. 

The "mondegreen."

The Scottish ballad, "The Bonnie Earl O'Moray":
Oh, ye hielands and ye lowlands,
Oh, where hae ye been?
They have slain the Earl of Moray,
And laid him on the green.
Scottish children misheard, thinking the last two lines:
"They have slain the Earl of Moray,
And Lady Mondegreen."
And thus the "mondegreen."

Look it up. It's actually there: a misunderstood or misinterpreted word or phrase resulting from a mishearing of the lyrics of a song.

My favorite from the Shocking Blue, "I'm Your Venus." How many of us heard something else and wondered how it ever got on the radio?

By the way, back to the Earl of Moray. From wiki:
Perhaps the most well-known Earl of Moray was James Stewart, 2nd Earl of Moray, the husband of Elizabeth Stewart, 2nd Countess of Moray, who held the earldom jure uxoris (by right of his wife), as he was the subject of a famous ballad, "The Bonny Earl O'Moray". He was also a direct male-line descendant of King Robert II.
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I'm Your Venus, Shocking Blue

**************************** 
A Series Of Mondegreens 

The Two Ronnies:

Friday, March 29, 2019

Global Warming? No Future For The Bronx? -- Occasional-Cortex -- March 29, 2019

LOL. I can't even link this -- but I'm sure it can be easily found -- I'm hoping we can find it on YouTube eventually ....
New York Democratic congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez appeared on MSNBC Friday to address the Green New Deal with host Chris Hayes and discussed the dire world she's convinced lies ahead for Americans if climate change is not addressed.
“So this issue is not just about our climate. First and foremost we need to save ourselves. Period. There will be no future for the Bronx ...  said Occasional-Cortex.
I can't make this up. Thank God Algore and Occasional-Cortex arrived on the scene when they did. Fourpointfive billion years the earth has been around ... and now, at "end days" -- our mortal saviors are here, having arrived just in time.

No future for the Bronx. LOL. I guess that means no more future for the New York Yankees either -- or they will have to move their stadium ... current address ... 1 E 161 St, The Bronx, NY 10451 ... maybe to the ice-free Arctic.

Isn't she the one who guaranteed less of a future for Long Island City -- you know, the Amazon HQ2 story? ... Or has Chris Hayes forgotten all about that already?

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Echo Chamber

Again, I highly recommend, at least weekly, checking in on Powerline and Deplorable Climate Science, linked at the sidebar at the right.

I am absolutely convinced of two things when it comes to liberals, progressives, and socialists:
  • they exist in an echo chamber; and, 
  • they don't read any more.
Of course, this is not unique to liberals, progressives, or socialists but no other group seems so unable to critically analyze anything.

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The Book Page

From The Language Instinct: How The Mind Creates Language, Steven Pinker, c. 1994.

Dave Barry, page 196, explains how to diagram a sentence.
Q: Please explain how to diagram a sentence.

A: First spread the sentence out on a clean, flat surface, such as an ironing board. Then, using a sharp pencil or X-Acto knife, locate the "predicate," which indicates where the action has taken place and is usually located directly behind the gills. For example, in the sentence: "LaMont never would of bit a forest ranger," the action probably took place in a forest. Thus your diagram would be shaped like a little tree with branches sticking out of it to indicate the locations of the various particles of speech, such as your gerunds, proverbs, adjutants, etc. 
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The iPhone Page

I am absolutely amazed at what Apple / Google have teamed up to do on the iPhone.

On the non-mobile "Google" webpage, one simply gets a blank page with a blank search box.

But on the iPhone, or mobile "Google" page, beneath the "Google" search box, there appear approximately a dozen top stories specifically targeted to the user of the iPhone and one ad, also tailored to the user.

Today, this is what I get when I go to "Google" on my iPhone. First the search box, and then:
  • physics: an article from Forbes on matter-antimatter
  • an ad for the Discover credit card
  • a news story on Beto scheduling first three rallies in Texas, from CNN
  • from CNBC, an article on Musk Melon and Tesla
  • from The Hill, "GOP shifts focus to investigating Obama officials"
  • an album review of my favorite group, "Debbie Harry and Andre the Giant," from Imgur
  • bankruptcies for North Dakota and western Minnesota, Inforum
  • UND to give honory degrees to Heitkamp, Hamm, from The Grand Forks Herald
Absolutely stunning; absolutely remarkable. I had not seen any of those articles until they popped up on the iPhone and each of them interested me.

Some folks would find this creepy, an invasion of privacy. Not me. I prefer this rather than an ad for Viagra and a dozen stories on global warming, Jessie "the Mullet" Smollet; and/or Hillary's comeback tour. 

By the way, that Forbes article on matter-antimatter is an excellent article, well worth a read.  

The timing of the Discover credit card ad is particularly amazing. It is obvious Apple/Google/someone is tracking my credit card purchases. And I don't use Discover Card on the computer; I use it only as an in-store card only. 

Bakken: #1 In NGPL Yield Among US Shale Plays -- March 29, 2019

As I've said many, many times: the Bakken never fails to amaze me.

Re-posting.

Look at this graphic:


Comments:
  • this is liquid production comparing six named production areas and the rest of the nation
  • the Permian goes from slightly less than 0.5 to about 0.80 million bpd
  • Eagle Ford has huge increase on a percentage basis and despite its small footprint compares nicely with the Permian
  • Anadarko: pretty much unchanged, but still, significant production
  • northern Appalachia, from "zero" just a few years ago, now a major player
  • Western Rockies: decreasing (regulatory issues?)
  • but look at the Bakken. Wow! From almost zero back in 2012, now a significant player
"A significant player." Wow, what an understatement on my behalf. Wow.

This is absolutely incredible. Look at this. Just hours after posting the above graphic, EIA posts this graphic:



From EIA's glossary:
Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL): Those hydrocarbons in natural gas that are separated as liquids at natural gas processing, fractionating, and cycling plants. Products obtained include ethane, liquefied petroleum gases (propane, normal butane, and isobutane), and natural gasoline. Component products may be fractionated or mixed. Lease condensate and plant condensate are excluded.
Note: Some EIA publications categorize NGPL production as field production, in accordance with definitions used prior to January 2014.
Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) production: The extraction of gas plant liquids constituents such as ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane, and natural gasoline, sometimes referred to as extraction loss. Usually reported in barrels or gallons, but may be reported in cubic feet for purposes of comparison with dry natural gas volumes.
I do not know if there is a difference between NGL and NGPL (natural gas liquids and natural gas plant liquids). For purposes of this discussion, probably not. 

Six New Permits -- March 29, 2019

Active rigs:

$60.143/29/201903/29/201803/29/201703/29/201603/29/2015
Active Rigs6760493197

Six new permits: pending
  • Operators: WPX (3); MRO (3)
  • Fields: Mandaree; Chimney Butte, Killdeer
  • Comments:
    • WPX has permits for a 3-well Rubia pad in section 24-149-94, Mandaree oil field;
    • MRO has permits for a 2-well Dorothy/Dasha pad in section 13-146-95; and a single Blanche permit in section 36-146-95; the Dorothy/Dasha pad will be in Chimney Butte, and the Blanche well will be in Killdeer oil field
Eight permits renewed:
  • BR (3): two Gudmunson permits and one Gudcadia permit, all in McKenzie County
  • EOG (3): three Clearwater permits in Mountrail County
  • Petro Harvester (2): RNL1 permits in Burke County
Change of operator: from Crescent Point Energy to Ballantyne (I think a reader gave me a "head's up on this one, some time ago) -- about 140 wells
  • oldest: 00884
  • most recent: 28929
  • all in Bottineau County

Price Of Gasoline To Soar -- March 29, 2019

Again, it gets back to the "right" kind of oil: heavy vs light. We have a glut of oil but it's the wrong kind. We need more "heavy" oil to balance the "light" oil for refining.


Random Update Of Two EOG Austin Wells In Parshall -- March 29, 2019

From an earlier note:
September 21, 2018: Apparently #34550 and #34552 have both been completed within the last couple of days. 34553 drl-->loc and 34550 SI/NC --conf --10/18; 
Update:
  • 34552, SI/NC - conf, EOG, Austin 414-2919H, Parshall, production:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-2019150384497
12-2018183903322
11-2018218366829
10-2018912539
  • 34550, SI/NC - conf, EOG, Austin 411-2919H, production:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-201974559642
12-201881546830
11-201852611094

Random Update Of An Old Alfred Old Dog Well -- March 29, 2019

The Alfred Old Dog wells are tracked here.

Let's take a look at #26154, drilled back in 2014, and already nearing a half million bbls of oil:
  • 26154, 1,842, WPX, Alfred Old Dog 19-18HD, 33-025-02240, t9/14; cum 401K 10/18; off line late 2018;in fact, all nine Alfred Old Dog wells were taken off line at the same time; back on line as of 11/18; no evidence of a re-frack;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2019318802876548531238565234758
BAKKEN12-2018311191112008737516758513310190
BAKKEN11-201811286328003137403018921782
BAKKEN10-20181000500
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-201823595259066227837434094204
BAKKEN7-201816472945168947665424493626
BAKKEN6-20188653727392918642166
BAKKEN5-20183143034396154160535284147
BAKKEN4-20183054615415170611248105060
BAKKEN3-20183154925615108677286625354
BAKKEN2-20182833833345948476022322030
BAKKEN1-2018101260192829017721283312
BAKKEN12-201729537846801546756826514186
BAKKEN11-201730500549661459704139622390

To the mineral owner, it really doesn't matter why production jumped, does it? Consider the change in royalty checks from:
  • 6/18 to 7/18;
  • 7/18 to 12/18;
FracFocus: no recent re-frack; fracked in September, 2014;
NDIC file report: 18 tanks on the pad; no recent frack;

geological summary: 60 miles north of Dickinson, ND [pretty funny: in fact it's much nearer to Watford City than Dickinson)];
took about a day to build the curve; seven encounters of out-of-zone drilling, but no shale strikes; but look at this, the middle Bakken formation (target zone) for this well was ascertained to have a maximum bed thickness of approximately 10 feet. Wow, drilling two miles down and they have a 10-foot target window. Great geologists; great roughnecks. And once in, the target zone, the seam "undulates." Six days to drill the lateral. And then, again, look at this: a total of 65% of the lateral was drilled within the middle Bakken formation target zone. But again, never left the middle Bakken if I read the report correctly.

Huge Headline But In The Big Scheme Of Things ... Another Nothing Burger; Western Canada Still Landlocked -- March 29, 2019

Enbridge Line 5, Michigan, replacement: stopped.

From wiki:
Enbridge Line 5 is a major oil pipeline in the Enbridge Lakehead System, which conveys petroleum from western Canada to eastern Canada via the Great Lakes states.
Line 5 is particularly notable for passing under the environmentally sensitive Straits of Mackinac, which connect Lake Michigan to Lake Huron. As of December 2013, the line carries 540,000 barrels of oil per day. It carries synthetic crude, natural gas liquids, sweet crude, and light sour crude.
So, a half million bbls of crude oil from western Canada to eastern Canada every day. That will continue until the 65-year-old pipeline is considered unsafe or starts leaking.

A quick read suggests the upper peninsula of Michigan benefited from this pipeline.

By the way, this is a great example of the difference between politics in North Dakota, and politics in Michigan (and New York, and California). North Dakota state government, it seems, works hard to try to come to some solution. In this case, Michigan just shut down the project without trying to find some way to solve the problem. 

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Time To Relax

Good Directions, Billy Currington

Flickr Image Of The Week? Agree 1,000% -- March 29, 2019

See an incredible update at this post

Look at this graphic:


Comments:
  • this is liquid production comparing six named production areas and the rest of the nation
  • the Permian goes from slightly less than 0.5 to about 0.80 million bpd
  • Eagle Ford has huge increase on a percentage basis and despite its small footprint compares nicely with the Permian
  • Anadarko: pretty much unchanged, but still, significant production
  • northern Appalachia, from "zero" just a few years ago, now a major player
  • Western Rockies: decreasing (regulatory issues?)
  • but look at the Bakken. Wow! From almost zero back in 2012, now a significant player

Random Update Of a Hunt Well In Tier 2 Or Tier 3 -- March 29, 2019

From an earlier post:
December 25, 2018: #18682, #20747, #17318 -- need to update #17318 if it comes back on line -- update at this post)
  • 29793, 1,634, Hunt, Cook 146-93-24-13H-3, Werner, FracFocus: 9.3 million gallons of water; 47 stages; 6.9 million lbs;  >
#17318 is not yet back on line, but look at #18682 production. The Werner oil field is not Tier 1. It might not even be Tier 2. If it is Tier 3, this is an incredible well for that area:
  • 18682, 665, Hunt, Cook 24-13H 1, Werner, t9/10; cum 310K 1/19; 
oolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2019315682561374042725243969
BAKKEN12-2018316018600094051592137991
BAKKEN11-2018234907527875012108199222
BAKKEN10-20182231242715180259850788
BAKKEN9-20182190588410237084000
BAKKEN8-20183111951271138210295880
BAKKEN7-20183111501168143393849631
BAKKEN6-2018301249123714338474770
BAKKEN5-20183113601327148187845046
BAKKEN4-20182610621158117858524470
BAKKEN3-201831129412451542101251910
BAKKEN2-20182810581062122497048331
BAKKEN1-20183112811285142712566940
BAKKEN12-20173112831276151811176570
 

Follow-Up On The Hess SC-Bingeman Wells In Truax Oil Field -- March 29, 2019

From an earlier post:

January 4, 2019: #29688, #29690, #29689, #29687;
  • 29690, 1,745, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-6, Truax, t11/18; cum 7K over 8 days;
Now we can follow up these four wells.

Recent production for #29690:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20193117998179602349930229210599081
BAKKEN12-201830170521690526104288911373915088
BAKKEN11-20188707669519591514615145

Recent production for the other three wells:
  • 29688: -- remains off line.
  • 29689, t7/15; cum 161K 1/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20192514131410278130901622928
BAKKEN12-201827131612981522229912298
BAKKEN11-201831751721781771176
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-2018000037370
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-201820556103220
BAKKEN6-20183016461506130261125775240
BAKKEN5-2018312037235012886580647717
BAKKEN4-20183020601927109165765492994
  • 29687, t7/15; cum 94K 1/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-201931400740105526526841111140
BAKKEN12-201830449044725667557345351017
BAKKEN11-201829304631167063379213872396
BAKKEN10-20181470157728011088930138
BAKKEN9-2018000037370
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-201800660000
BAKKEN6-201891953503431072104213
BAKKEN5-2018311085123911904768466343
BAKKEN4-2018281060993133840553333667
BAKKEN3-2018311210123213514050395144
BAKKEN2-201828112585113853097302518
BAKKEN1-201862463044316186033
BAKKEN12-20171940450580912581070169
BAKKEN11-2017261168122910463797365077