Saturday, February 23, 2019

Billionaires Just Wanna Have Fun -- February 23, 2019

I have definitely lost track of pricing in this industry. I thought it was a minimum of $799 just to get in the door. And for less than $1,000, one would "have to know somebody."

But $79/hour? Are you kidding? Billionaires? And they go to an establishment not vetted by their organizations, and apparently ask for the special of the day.


When you look at the photos in this rogues' gallery, it now makes sense why they had to pay for their night out.

I feel sad for the servers. $79/hour. Maybe they make their money on tips.  If so I hope the servers were not kuchar'd for all their hard work. I was going to stay "stiff'd" but I thought best not to go there.

Girls Just Wanna Have Some, Chromatics

Cashiered. Kuchar'd.

Update -- I'm Back -- February 23, 2019 -- Did Jeff Bezos Just Get Offered A "Gift Horse"?

Instead of sending an individual reply to all the e-mail I received overnight asking "what happened; where are you?" I'll just sent a "group note."

I'm fine. I took the night off and got a late start this morning (Friday night, Saturday morning).

There is simply too much going on. Soccer, gymnastics, water polo, swimming lessons for the granddaughters, and then the golf tournament on television, the Charlie Pride "special" and it goes on and on.

But I'm back but working at 33-and-a-third rather than the usual 78 rpm.

And, then, of course, ever since we got the word that the Canadian National Energy Board recommended approval of the TransMountain pipeline with 156 conditions, I've been enjoying Bob and Doug:


*******************************************
Connecting The Dots

Wow, if Amazon and Boston can't take advantage of recent events in a "New York minute" color me disappointed.

Look at this. Just days ago, Amazon announces they will not build one-half of HQ2 in Long Island City, Queens, NYC.  Amazon was looking for a site
  • in the northeast
  • with lots of public transportation
  • with lots of financial capital access
  • with lots of highly educated tech people
If it can't be NYC, why not Boston?

If Elizabeth Warren wants to put "space" between her and Occasional-Cortex, Pocahontas needs to get out in front of this now.

For Jeff Bezos, this would be like a gift horse. 

But hey, is there any place in Boston to build? You betcha.

From Chesto over at The Boston Globe:
School for sale: Want to buy a piece of a Brookline hilltop? Newbury College's campus is hitting the market, as the financially strapped school prepares to close after this semester. Colliers International, the brokerage handling the sale, said no purchase price has been set on the 7.8-acre campus in the Fisher Hill neighborhood. It's already attracting interest from private-sector bidders. But you've got to wonder if the town of Brookline makes a play for the property, given the town's well known needs for more school space. 
Newbury College:
  • the main campus: 10,000 acres
  • just completed a 16,000 square foot student union
  • satellite campuses: as many as 15 across eastern Massachusetts
  • within biking distance of:
    • Harvard University
    • MIT
    • Harvard Business School
    • Harvard Medical School
    • Boston University
There are 25 universities and colleges in the Boston area. 

Take Off, Eh! The TransMountain Pipeline -- February 23, 2019

This is just some housekeeping regarding the TransMountain pipeline in western Canada. Nothing new here.

One hardly needs to make any comments about the National Energy Board's recommendations.

It's actually pretty "funny" for lack of a better word. I think the Canadian NEB was able to thread the needle in such a way to piss off anyone who has a dog in this fight. From what I can tell, this is what the NEB says:
This pipeline is absolutely the worse thing we can be doing when it comes to the killer whales and then there are a few issues with the pipeline route itself, not to even mention that this doesn't help the AGW issue at all. Why don't you just build a pipeline to North Dakota? They seem friendly enough. 
But go ahead, build your damn pipeline, you've sunk this much money and time into it, why not? But if you are really serious about building this monstrosity, be prepared to answer 156 conditions.
Note: I may have written earlier that it was 165 conditions. If I did, my bad. Sorry. I hope that was not material to your thoughts on this recommendation. 

Sort of reminds me of Bob and Doug McKenzie, "Great White North" skits on Second City TV years ago.


Yesterday I posted:
TransMountain: I think I read that the Canadian national energy regulator approved the TransMountain pipeline although the agency said it was "bad" for the environment. The government will now vote whether to proceed. (It will.) And then protests and lawsuits to follow.
Today, from a reader:
Here's the recent NEB document recommending TransMountain approval:

I found it to be page 9 of a 689 page volume.  It's actually titled "i" of the attached

https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/pplctnflng/mjrpp/trnsmntnxpnsn/trnsmntnxpnsnrprt-eng.pdf

Here's a screenshot of the bottom of that page:
Disposition

After completing the Reconsideration hearing and having regard to all relevant considerations, the Board is of the view that the Project is and will be required by the present and future public convenience and necessity, and is in the Canadian public interest. Pursuant to the National Energy Board Act (NEB Act), the Board confirms the recommendation, and replaces certain conditions, that it provided to the GIC in its OH-001-2014 Report. The Board recommends that the GIC approve the Project by directing the issuance of a certificate of public convenience and necessity (CPCN) to Trans Mountain Pipeline ULC (Trans Mountain), subject to 156 conditions. Pursuant to the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act, 2012 (CEAA 2012) the Board is of the view that the designated Project is likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects. Specifically, Project-related marine shipping is likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects on the Southern resident killer whale, and on Indigenous cultural use associated with the Southern resident killer whale. This is despite the fact that effects from Project-related marine shipping will be a small fraction of the total cumulative effects, and the level of marine traffic is expected to increase regardless of whether the Project is approved. The Board also finds that greenhouse gas (or GHG) emissions from Project-related marine vessels would result in measureable increases and, taking a precautionary approach, are likely to be significant. While a credible worst-case spill from the Project or a Project-related vessel is not likely, if it were to occur, the environmental effects would be significant. While these effects weighed heavily in the Board’s reconsideration of Project-related marine shipping, the Board recommends that, in light of the considerable benefits of the Project and measures to mitigate the effects, the GIC find that they can be justified in the circumstances. The Board has identified a recommended follow-up program to be implemented with respect to the designated Project. Pursuant to the Species at Risk Act (SARA), the Board has identified the adverse effects of the Project and its related marine shipping on each SARA-listed wildlife species and its critical habitat, and has imposed (through conditions) and recommended (to the GIC) measures to avoid or lessen those effects and to monitor them.

Friday, February 22, 2019

MRO With Three New Permits In Chimney Butte -- February 22, 2019

TransMountain: I think I read that the Canadian national energy regulator approved the TransMountain pipeline although the agency said it was "bad" for the environment. The government will now vote whether to proceed. (It will.) And then protests and lawsuits to follow. 

Active rigs:

$57.202/22/201902/22/201802/22/201702/22/201602/22/2015
Active Rigs66564339127

Three new permits:
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Chimney Butte (Dunn County)
  • Comments: MRO has permits for a 3-well pad in SESW 23-146-95;
Six permits renewed:
  • QEP (4): four Moberg permits in McKenzie County
  • RimRock (2): two Moccasin Creek permits in Dunn County
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 35328, 1,105, Kraken, Pocasset LW 32-29 1H, Oliver, t1/19; cum --;
  • 35327, 737, Kraken, Pocasset 32-29 4TFH, Oliver, t1/19; cum --;
Of interest:
  • Oasis had permits for seven Three Forks wells in Williams County; all were changed to middle Bakken wells (#34107, #34109, #34132, #34135, #34234, #34336, #34338)  

Random Look At Two "50K" Wells Drilled Early In The Bakken Boom -- February 22, 2019

See this post

I do not recall seeing many "50K" wells in the early Bakken boom. Here are two of them, one horizontal is about two miles long; the other is about a mile long.

The wells:
  • 25646, 607, EOG, Wayzetta 30-3230H, Parshall, t11/13; cum 749K 12/18;
  • 25647, 110, EOG, Wayzetta 30-3230H, ICO, Parshall, t11/13; cum 757K 12/18; still doing very well; 4,000 bbls/month; see full production profile below

For Newbies: Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3 In The Bakken -- February 22, 2019 -- IN PROGRESS

All information below pertains to the Bakken unless stated otherwise.

Information below is all personal opinion based on my "reading" of the tea leaves.

I wear "oily-covered glasses" when looking at Bakken data.

This is is posted only for conversational purposes. There will be typographical and factual errors. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Wells yet to be drilled: 20,000 to 70,000

Time frame: 20 years to 50 years

It all depends on demand.

Tiers:
  • Tier 1: locations in the Bakken that show increased activity when prices stay below $50
  • Tier 2 locations move to Tier 1 locations: when WTI trends from $50 to $65
  • Tier 3 locations move to Tier 1 locations when WTI trends toward $100
Trending now:
  • 12 wells in 1280-acre drilling units in Tier 1 locations
  • adding those overlapping 2560-acre units to capture "orphan" oil along section lines
  • setback rules have been changed: we might see more re-entry drilling to extend existing laterals; if extended, the wells will be re-fracked; consider it a new well
Formations targeted:
  • middle Bakken/Three Forks: about a 60/40 split, I suppose, a "wag"
  • CLR is the "only" operator routinely testing the second bench of the Three Forks
Re-frack: "every well" drilled/completed before 2014, maybe 2016, will have to be re-fracked; they will be re-fracked based on many criteria, but Tier 1-2-3 will be a good starting point

Best metric to follow right now: "frack team / rig" ratio; I don't have that number for the Bakken
  • in the Permian, it is being reported today that the "frack team / rig" spread is narrowing (increasing number of frack spreads / rigs holding steady or slowly increasing
  • 500 rigs
  • 150 frack spreads (for newbies: a "frack spread" is oil patch jargon for all the resources required to frack a well -- personnel; equipment; water; sand; ceramic; etc
  • Permian frack spread / rig ratio: 30 percent
  • Permian rig / frack spread: 3:1
Boom vs manufacturing stage:
  • the Bakken is said to be in the manufacturing stage
  • the Permian: still in the boom stage
For newbies: the best way to determine when a tight field/basin has transitioned from "boom" to "manufacturing": when pad drilling becomes the norm
  • one is definitely in the manufacturing stage when mega-pads (at least 6 wells per pad) become the norm
The Permian:
Production at the Permian Basin, the largest shale play, is set to exceed 4 million barrels per day for the first time in March. As such, this shale play alone significantly exceeds the amounts produced by the United Arab Emirates, Brazil and Kuwait. Only five countries produce more oil than the Permian Basin, excluding the US.

A New Non-Operator In The Bakken? Lincoln Energy Partners -- February 22, 2019

In the March, 2019, hearing dockets, these two cases (not permits, but cases):
  • 27406, Lincoln Energy Partners, Murphy Creek-Bakken, establish two 2560-acre units; 12 wells on each in 13/14/23/24-144-94; and, 3/4/9/10-143-94, Dunn County
  • 27407, Lincoln Energy Partners, Saxon-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit, 12 wells on 25/26/35/36-145-93; Dunn County
Over at the NDIC site: Lincoln Energy Partners is/are not found.

Over at "Bakken Operators," Lincoln Energy Partners is/are not found.

Website for Lincoln Energy Partners.
  • 852 N. Broadway, Suite 300, Denver, CO 80203
  • non-operator
  • landmen
  • prior to recent foray into the Bakken, it appears they were concentrated on the :
  • DJ Basin Niobraraand Codell
  • Powder River Basin
  • the Bakken not yet mentioned (February 22, 2019)
For newbies: a great example of a non-operator in the Bakken is NOG, also found over at the "Bakken Operators" page, linked above.

March, 2019, Hearing Dockets Have Been Posted

NDIC posts the hearing dockets here.

Dockets are tracked here

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

For now, these are the cases that caught my attention. I will come back to this page to complete it later. 

Wednesday, March 20, 2019 -- eight pages (on the low side)

27360,
27361, Hess, Tioga-Bakken, establish four stand-up 1280-acre units (5/8; 6/7; 17/20; and 18/19-158-94); 12 wells in each; 48 wells total; Mountrail
27362,
27363,
27364,
27365,
27366,
27367,
27368, Hess, Tioga-Bakken, 12 wells on a 1280-acre unit; 14/23-158-95; Williams
27369, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, 11 wells on a 1280-acre unit, 14/15-156-95; Williams
27370, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Bakken,  7 wells on a 1280-acre unit, 12/13-155-96, Williams
27371, Hess, Capa-Bakken, 10 wells on a 1280-acre unit, 24/25-155-95; Williams
27372, Hess, Alkali Creek-Bakken, 11 wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 5/6/7/8-154-94; Mountrail
27373, Hess, Alkali Creek-Bakken, 6 wells on a 1280-acre unit, 5/8-154-94, Mountrail
27374, Hess, Alkali Creek-Bakken, 6 wells on a 1280-acre unit, 6/7-154-94; Mountrail
27375,
27376,
27377,
27377,
27378,
27379,
27380,
27381,
27382,
27383,
27384,
27385,
27386,
27387,
27388,
27389,
27390,
27391,
27392,
27393, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, 11 wells on a 1280-acre unit, 2/3-152-93, Mountrail
27394,
27395,
27396,
27397,

Thursday, March 21, 2019 -- 12 pages (about average)

27398, NDIC, consider termination of the Tracy Mountain-Tyler unit, Billings County, operated by Southwestern Production Corp, Billings County;
27399, Denbury Onshore, temporary spacing for and oil and/or gas pool discovered by Denbury straddling the ND-Montana state line in the southwest corner of North Dakota; Bowman County, ND; Fallon County, MT
27400, Iron Oil Operating, Boxcar Butte-Bakken; establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit ; 21/22-148-102; multiple wells; establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, 3/10/15-148-102, multiople wells; establish another 1920-acre unit, 4/9/16-148-102; McKenzie County
27401, Iron Oil Operating, South Boxcar-Bakken, extend field boundaries; establish a 1280-acre unit; multiple wells on 28/33-148-102; McKenzie
27402, Iron Oil Operating, Little Tank-Bakken, establish a 1280-acre unit; multiple wells on 23/24-148-102; establish two overlapping 1920-acre units; multiple wells on 1/12/13-148-102; and, 2/11/14-148-102; McKenzie
27403, RimRock Oil & Gas, Moccasin Creek-Bakken, Dunn County:
i) establish an overlapping 640-acre spacing unit, section 34-148-93, one well on/near the center line of section 34, between the two existing 320-acre standup spacing units of teh proposed overlapping 640-acre unit;
ii) establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, sections 33/34-148-93, or in the alternative, establish an overlapping 640-acre unit, E/2 of section 33 and W/2 of section 34-148-93, one well
iii)  establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, 35-149-93; 2/11-147-93, six horizontal wells;
iv) establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, 35/36-148-93, W/2 of 1/12, and E/2 of 2/11-147-93, two horizontal wells, or alternative to this is also presented (see source)
27404, RimRock Oil & Gas, Heart Butte-Bakken, Dunn County:
i) establish an overlapping 1280-acre spacing unit comprised of 13-149-93; and 18-149-92, one well;
ii) establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, 21/22-149-92, two wells; alternative presented, see source
iii) establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, 27/28-149-92, two wells;
27405, RimROck Oil &Gas; Twin Buttes-Bakken; establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, 14/23-147-92; one well; Dunn County
27406, Lincoln Energy Partners, Murphy Creek-Bakken, establish two 2560-acre units; 12 wells on each in 13/14/23/24-144-94; and, 3/4/9/10-143-94, Dunn County
27407, Lincoln Energy Partners, Saxon-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit, 12 wells on 25/26/35/36-145-93; Dunn County
27408, Equinor, Stony Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 35/36-155-100, and 1/2-154-100, one well; Williams County
27409, SHD Oil & Gas, Deep Water Creek Bay-Bakken, establish i) two overlapping 960-acre units, N/2 of sections 22/23/24 and the S/2 of sections 22/23/24-150-92, five wells; ii) one well on a existing 1920-acre unit, 22/23/24-150-91; and, iii) an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 15/16/17/18-150-91, seven wells, McLean and Cunn counties
27410, SHD Oil & Gas, Van Hook-Bakken, i) establish an overlapping 640-acre unit, S/2 of sections 19/20-150-91, three wells; ii) establish an overlapping 960-acre unit, N/2 of sections 19/20/21-150-91, three wells; iii) establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, 19/20-150-91, one well; iv) establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, S/2 of sections 16/17/18 and N/2 of secton 19/20/21-150-91, one well; and, v) termination of a 3520-acre unit in Van Hook-Bakken; McLean, Dunn Conties
27411, CLR, Last Chance-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 27/28/33/34-154-100 and establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, 4/5/6/7/8/9-153-100, two wells; Williams, McKenzie County
27412, CLR, Catwalk-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 28/29/32/33-154-100; two wells; Williams
27413, NDIC, suspend/revoke several permits issued to PetroShale, Dunn County
27414, RimRock, pooling, Mandaree-Bakken,
27415, RimRock, pooling, Mandaree-Bakken,
27416, RimRock, pooling, Mandaree-Bakken,
27417, Crescent Point Energy, pooling, Lone Tree Lake-Bakken,
27418, Crescent Point Eneryg, pooling, Lone Tree Lake-Bakken,
27419, Crescent Point Energy, pooling, Lone Tree Lake-Bakken,
27420, Crescent Point Energy, pooling, Lone Tree Lake-Bakken,
27421, WPX, pooling, Antelope-Sanish,
27422, WPX, pooling, Spotted Horn-Bakken,
27423, WPX, pooling, Mandaree-Bakken,
27424, CLR, pooling, Last Chance-Bakken,
27425, CLR, pooling, Catwalk and/or Last Chance-Bakken
27426, CLR, pooling, Last Chance-Bakken,
27427, CLR, pooling, Oakdale-Bakken,
27428, Nine Point Energy, pooling, Squires-Bakken,
27429, Nine Point Energy, pooling, Squires-Bakken,
27430, Iron Oil Operating, North Branch-Bakken, multiple wells on each of two existing 1280-acre units, 25/36-148-102; and 26/35-148-102; McKenzie County
27431, Iron Oil Operating, South Boxcar-Bakken, multiple wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, 27/34-148-102; McKenzie County
27432, Newfield, Siverston-Bakken, 14 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; 6/7-150-98; two wells on existing overlapping 2560-acre unit, 17/18/19/20-150-98; McKenzie
27433, Slawson, Big Bend, four wells on an existing 640-acre unit, 36-152-93; Mountrail
27434, SWD,
27435, SWD,
27436, SWD,
27437, SWD,
27438, SWD,


February 22, 2019, T+51 -- Charllie Pride Tonight

First things first: Charlie Pride documentary on PBS tonight, 8:00 p.m. Central Time, I believe, but check your local listings. Quick: how is Charlie Pride "connected" to Montana? I've probably seen Charlie Pride in concert more times than any other performer. The best concert ever for me? Charlie Rich. Long story. Liberace a close second. 


Is Anyone Goin' To San Antone? Charlie Pride


First things first: brewery to expand in Williston -- 
More than three years after Williams County opened a new building for its highway department, the owners of a Glasgow, Montana, brewery have made an offer to buy the old building. The Williams County Commission unanimously accepted a $700,000 bid from Ben and Connie Boreson, who own Busted Knuckle Brewery in Glasgow.
Williston: Boot Barn will open in the former Sears site. Sears has re-opened in the former Aaron's, a branch of NAPA Auto Parts. Aaron's is moving into the former Budget Home Furnishings building.

Shut off the lights on the way out: FT is quotes a hedge fund forecasting the demise of coal in Europe within three years. Hold that thought. We'll check back in 2025.

Surfeit of riches. For North Dakota, it simply doesn't quit. North Dakota overtakes Texas as the top lignite producer in 2018. Link here. So, #1 in certain grain products; #1 in honey; #1 in ICBMs (not sure if that still holds); #1 in lignite; #1 in common sense (at least in the western half of the state).

Spoiler alert: two bits, four bits, six bits, a dollar, everyone for reparations, stand up and holler. Pocahontas and Kamala Harris have both signed on. This is a deal killer. Even Barack Obama knew that. It's only slightly worse than telling coal country that "a lot of coal miners will be out of work when I'm elected president." Regardless of whether it's morally right or wrong, here are the demographics: African-Americans in the US: 15%, with projections to 18% in 2060. Hispanics in the US: 18% in 2016. Remember: all politics is local.
Of the 10 states with the largest Hispanic population, Georgia's Hispanic population has more than doubled since 2000.
California: African-American, around 6%; Latino, around 38% and growing;
They track everything: AOC -- "Occasional-Cortex" to the rest of us. But AOC: Amazon online customer.

Scott Adams asked this blogger to provide the five best arguments against AGW.

Coral reefs in west Hawaii are poised for recovery. Another "polar bear" story/study, I guess.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; Nova Scotia, New Brunswick With No Indigenous Gas Supplies -- February 22, 2019

Making America great: Permian frack scene is going to get busier -- Rigzone --
  • Permian recently gained four frack spreads; now at 147
  • total number of frack spreads in the US: 452, up 11 week-over-week
  • frack spread is diverging from the rig count
  • [rig counts don't matter]
  • reported yesterday -- EIA expects Permian production to hit 4 million bopd
  • at 4 million bopd, more than four times the volume of daily output in 2017
  • almost equal the amount of crude oil the US is now exporting -- 3.7 million bopd
Keeping America great: global gas demand to grwo by 10 percent through 2030 -- Rigzone --
  • just ten percent growth will "require massive amounts of investment" -- Equinor
  • even if faux environmentalists enact "the two-degree climate target" projections for gas demand growth won't change much 
BP annual outlook: released

Whoo-hoo! Baby's got shoes! SRE increases dividend by 8.1%. Wow. From 89.5 cents/share to 96.75 cents/share. Forward yield: 3.29%. Better than what the German banks are paying.

And there's more: Enbridge has started service on Crossing Pipeline -- data points:
  • 165-mile pipeline
  • natural gas from Agua Dulce (sweet water) hub near Corpus Christi, TX, to folks on the south side of the Mexican border
  • $1.5 billion pipeline
  • 2.6 billion cfd of natural gas (40,000 boepd)
  • joint venture, TransCanada, Sempra Energy, completed the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan Pipeline earlier this month (February, 2019)
*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Friday, February 22, 2019: 90 wells for the month; 193 wells for the quarter
  • 33204, SI/NC, Petroshale, Petroshale US 13H, Antelope-Sanish;
  • 30539, SI/NC, Slawson, Badger 1 SLH, Big Bend,
  • 22747, SI/NC, Enerplus, Arnica 149-93-21B-22H TF, Mandaree,
Active rigs:

$57.692/22/201902/22/201802/22/201702/22/201602/22/2015
Active Rigs66564339127


RBN Energy: last resort -- Canada's east coast Sable natural gas production is no more. Part 1. Archived.
After 19 years of natural gas production from the waters off the Canadian Maritime provinces, ExxonMobil, operator of the Sable Offshore Energy Project, shut down production there effective January 1, 2019. Though the closure had been announced well in advance, the end of SOEP output has left the two natural gas-consuming provinces in the region, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, without any indigenous gas supplies. It’s also made them fully reliant on either pipeline gas from the U.S. Northeast or imported volumes of LNG into the Canaport Energy terminal in New Brunswick. Will the shutdown put even more stress on the already overtaxed gas pipeline system in New England? And will it spur increased flows of Western Canadian gas into northern New England and the Maritimes? Today, in Part 1 of this blog series, we begin an examination of the potential impacts of SOEP’s demise on New England and Eastern Canadian gas markets.

Thursday, February 21, 2019

Was Occasional-Cortex On The Board? -- February 21, 2019

I can't wait to read about this ... later. Link here.



******************************
TSLA Drops Well Below $300

Consumer Reports disses. Significant reliability problems. Must have been the cold weather.

**************************************
US Crude Oil Exports

I missed this earlier, but fortunately caught it in a tweet from Crudehead / #OOTT.
Then, later a reader sent me this note:
Oil exports of 3,607,000 barrels per day are not unremarkable...in fact it tops the previous record by 12%:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCREXUS2&f=W

(Ok, i missed this the first time I looked at it, too ... it took a CNBC headline to clue me in ... Imust be slowing down in my old age...)
That caught my attention. I really didn't pay attention until the reader sent me the above note but think about that ... the US is producing about 12 million bopd and is now exporting almost 4 million bopd.

Not only is the US exporting record amounts of crude oil, but just as important we aren't importing much. The money in both directions is important, but even more importantly, we are no longer being held hostage to some foreign country or cartel supplying that oil.  

4 million bopd x $50/bbl  = $200 million/day = $73,000 million / year

$22 trillion / $73 billion =  220 x 10^11 / 73 x 10^9 = 3.01 x 10^2 = 301 years. Sort of puts the $22 trillion US debt into perspective. 

***************************************
For The Granddaughters 
My Playlist At Midnight

The Last Train To Clarksville, The Monkees

Yellow River. Living next door to Alice. Pussycat. Lights on the hill. Filmed on Bruce Highway. Great name for a highway.


Got my mind set on you. Twist in my sobriety. Sealed with a kiss. Sixteen reasons. Runaway. And then this. Mr Lonely. Red River Ball. We'll sing in the sunshine. I go to pieces.

Nothing has haunted me so much as this clip in a long, long time. Knowing the plot of this movie, I could never, never watch it. It would be way too painful. 

Making America Great -- Another Record -- February 21, 2019

From twitter:


For Newbies: A Rattlesnake Point Well -- February 21, 2019

This page will not be updated.

This page is for newbies.

We've discussed wells in Rattlesnake Point ad nauseum on the blog. I'm simply updating wells that caught my interest over the past six months or so.

The real purpose of this post: to remind newbies that it is absolutely impossible to predict how the Bakken or any given well in the Bakken will turn out.

When I first started blogging, I was told that I was cherry picking (I plead guilty as charged) and that many wells were uneconomical. And by implication, the Bakken would fail.

I argued that even these uneconomical wells played a role. Three important roles:
held the lease by production, no matter how low the production, as long as it kept producing
provided geologists with lots of information about the geology
provided operators an opportunity to improve their drilling/completion strategies
I never, never thought, at the time, about the halo effect, work-overs, mini-re-fracks, or major re-fracks.

But look at this well. In addition to the reasons already mentioned, look how this well "turned around."

The well:
  • 17089, 400, CLR, Bridger 44-14H, t4/08; cum 358K 12/18; and then back on confidential; re-fracked 4/17;
Full production profile at this post.

It's IP was pretty poor, even for the time:
  • 24-hour: 400 bbls
  • 30-day: 8,000 bbls
  • 90-day: 18,000 bbls
But it plateaued fairly quickly and, though low, was a steady Eddy when it came to production.

By seven years or so, it looked like a pretty miserable well. I did not check but very likely put on "stripper well" status.

Then, all of a sudden it shows a bit of life. In late 2015 the well shows a small jump in production, and it stayed there for about one year.

But then it was taken off-line for a year so.

And then it was re-fracked in early 2017:
  • 40 stages; 14.3 million lbs
  • "new IP": 1,344
  • it was a re-entry well
  • the re-entry was drilled in the existing horizontal lateral at the 20,845-foot point. 
  • TD was reached at 21,158' (the horizontal was extended by 313 feet)
  • "Lateral 1 was in the very upper part of the middle Bakken and in the Lower Bakken formation."
After the re-frack, this well turned out to be a very, very good well. I assume it will have work-overs, mini-re-fracks, and perhaps major refracks over the next 30 years. This well was first drilled in 2008 but really wasn't much of a good well until the re-frack, 2017. Technically, this well is ten years old, but from the "real" frack, it is only two years old. All infrastructure costs were sunk (road, pad, pipelines, etc) a long time ago. For the cost of extending the horizontal 300 feet and a big re-frack, CLR essentially got a brand-new well. In addition, the geologists and drillers learned more about the Bakken.  

Selected production profile:

BAKKEN11-20173016622169011990719639196390
BAKKEN10-20173122673219041694124616227151901
BAKKEN9-20172718302184651558919122161962926
BAKKEN8-20173127510274882742728501217386763
BAKKEN7-20175210220478371178851093
BAKKEN6-2017151923013063170317
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-20170000000
BAKKEN12-20160000000
BAKKEN11-20160000000
BAKKEN10-20160000000
BAKKEN9-20160000000
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-201663356448743366367
BAKKEN6-2016302106222060225321592373

By the way, #31847, Bridger 9-14H1, exactly parallels this well, separated vertically, but hardly horizontally. #31847 is a Three Forks first bench well.   

Hess With Permits For A 5-Well Pad In Dollar Joe -- February 21, 2019

Active rigs:

$56.832/21/201902/21/201802/21/201702/21/201602/21/2015
Active Rigs66554238127

Five new permits:
  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Dollar Joe (Williams County)
  • Comments: Hess has permits for a 5-well GO-Dahl pad in SESW quadrant of section 22-156-97;
Three permits canceled:
  • XTO: three Lonnie Federal permits in Williams County
Two permits renewed:
  • Newfield: two Obenour permit in McKenzie County
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
  • 35395, 360, Behm, Nygaard 29-8V, Pronghorn, target: the Red River D; t1/19; cum -- ; TD = 13,970 feet, a vertical well; 
  • for an example of "monster Red River wells," see this post; notice to newbies -- this is not likely to be a monster well; Red River "monster wells" are few and far between;
  • Geologic markers for this well:
 

For The Record -- And For The Kennedy Grandchildren -- February 21, 2019

Link here.


St. Paul and Minneapolis declared snow emergencies Wednesday as a winter storm dropped up to 10 inches on the metro area, making this the snowiest February on record in the Twin Cities by a wide margin.

***************************
Winter Storm Quiana

Hammering the southwest.

Desert southwest snow. Being measured in feet.

I could be wrong, but it seems many all-time snow records in the US fell this winter. Could be wrong. But lots of snow. 

***********************
These Guys Come And Go
Flashback from 1970

I "grew up" with Dr Paul Ehrlich. Remember him. I graduated from high school in 1969. My first year of college, 1969 - 1970, a fairly impressionable kid. An one of those I remember who impressed me was Dr Paul Ehrlich. I was fortunate to be so busy in college I was unable be come an activist. Wow.

From Deplorable Climate Science:


To think that the oceans would be dead in as little as ten years. Wow. Ehrlich? Still kicking at age 86.

Reason #45 Why I Love To Blog -- February 21, 2019

The other day I mentioned that Algeria was the country most likely to be affected by the glut of light oil.

I was close, but no cigar.

For newbies: again, the current glut of oil has to do with the "right" kind of oil for the US, not oil "overall."

It turns out that Nigeria is likely to be affected first.

From oilprice: Nigeria could soon start cutting oil production. Saudi Arabia says it will stomp on Nigeria, enforce OPEC production cuts. Wow. Nigeria must produce a lot of oil. Let's look. The data points:
  • production cut quota of 2.5% of 1.7 million 
  • a cut of 40,000 bopd
But apparently Nigeria, actually increasing production by another 200,000 bopd or about 10% of Nigeria's total production.

Whatever.

Two things.

First: Nigeria's oil has an API that translates to "medium-high oil," the very same API range as that of Saudi Arabia.

That's the very same segment that the world wants.

Second: I think this is the bigger story. If Saudi Arabia is going to stomp on a fellow OPEC member who had a quota cut of 40,000 bopd -- that is further evidence that Saudi Arabia is in deep trouble. Saudi Arabia cannot even afford competition from a small player any more.

Nigeria's oil:

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- February 21, 2019

Link here.

But first, let's see what WTI is doing: down 16 cents; right at $57
  • EIA weekly crude oil inventories: increased by 3.7 million bbls
  • EIA weekly crude oil inventories: 454.5 million bbls; at 6% of five-year average; and the 5-year average keeps increasing
  • refineries operating at an incredible low 85.9% capacity (second week in a row that we have seen incredibly low operating rate)
  • both gasoline and distillate production decreased modestly last week, most background noise
  • but again, imports up over 1.3 million bopd -- suggesting that the refiners still need that heavy oil to offset all the light oil from the Permian
  • having said that, crude oil imports are still down 10% compared to same four-week period last year
  • everything else seems unremarkable
To re-balance:

Week
Date
Change w-o-w
In Storage
Weeks to RB to 350 Million Bbls
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
N/A
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
N/A
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
N/A
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Never at this rate
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Never at this rate
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Never at this rate
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Never at this rate
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
A long, long time
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 10
January 31, 2019
0.9
445.9
Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 11
February 6, 2019
1.3
447.2
Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 12
February 13, 2019
3.6
450.8
Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 13
February 21, 2019
3.7
454.8
Won’t happen in my lifetime

In the past thirteen weeks, there were only five weeks in which crude oil inventories actually dropped, and of those five weeks, only one was remarkable: week 2 -- a drop of 7.3 million bbls.

The US crude oil inventory has actually increased significantly since 3.5 months ago, from 447 million bbls to 455 million bbls.