Thursday, January 24, 2019

Wow! Economists Thought Jobless Claims Would Surge To 220,000; In Fact, Plummetted By 13,000 -- January 24, 2019

US weekly jobless claims: lowest level since 1969. But Reuters questions the accuracy -- LOL.
  • previous week: revised lower by 1,000
  • forecast for most recent data: to climb to 220,000
  • actual data: jobless claims dropped 13,000
  • seasonally-adjusted: 199,000 for week ended January 19, 2019
  • seasonally-adjusted: lowest level since mid-November, 1969 (197,000 applications)

From the linked article (really, really good critical analysis in this one paragraph -- LOL)
This suggests last week’s surprise decline in claims probably exaggerates the labor market’s health. The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 5,500 to 215,000 last week. [How's that again?]

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