Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Penultimate! We Don't See That Often -- RBN Energy -- January 15, 2019

Permian: Chevron capex. From Bloombergvia Rigzone. Data points:
  • about half its CAPEX will go into the Permian
  • projects yield quick returns over the next three years
  • [note, memo to self: need to reply to silver/gold bug that shale will never be profitable]
  • CVX will spend up to $10 billion/year on "short-cycle investments" through 2022
  • Permian: will pump one in five bbls (i.e., 20%) produced by the world's major oil companies
Overblown: from oilprice -- fears of shale oil demise may be overblown.

Not overblown: Powerball million-dollar ticket winner sold in North Dakota. No one has claimed it yet. But "they" know who won:
“Pick & Click is a great service in which players never miss a draw or possibly misplace a ticket. Tickets are tracked for players and they are notified of any winnings.”
This was "pick and click online" which suggests that my dad is still playing the lottery from heaven, probably alongside St Francis of Assisi. .

ISO New England. Spiked to $150/MW earlier this morning; still using coal and oil, albeit almost negligible.
Back to the Bakken

The Director's Cut should be released late this afternoon. Link here. I was surprised that The Bismarck Tribune didn't have any forecast on what the latest production numbers might be. 

Two wells coming off the confidential list today -- Tuesday, January 15, 2019
  • 35069, 16, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Issendorf 16-10H, Russel oil field; target: Spearfish/Madison, t8/18; cum 3K 11/18;
  • 34651, SI/NC WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HD, South Fork, no production reported yet;
Active rigs (I'm somewhat surprised the number of rigs has remained steady despite the time of the year and the pricing of WTI):

Active Rigs67553649156

RBN Energy: part 3, can US LPG export terminals keep up? Wow, what a great problem to have!
U.S. production of natural gas liquids is projected to increase by 17% this year, and by another 10% in 2020, according to RBN’s forecast.
These gains will result in similar increases in the output of propane and normal butane — two NGL purity products generally referred to as LPG — and, with U.S. demand for LPG expected to stay relatively flat, most of the incremental volumes will be sent to export terminals for shipment to foreign buyers. The question is, will the nine U.S. marine terminals that are equipped to send out LPG have enough capacity to handle the much-higher flows? Today, we continue our series with a review of four smaller export terminals along the Gulf and East coasts.
This is the third and penultimate episode in our series in which we’ve been discussing the U.S.’s flip from net LPG importer to net exporter seven years ago and the challenges presented by fast-growing propane/butane export volumes.
Waterborne LPG exports soared to an average of more than 1.1 MMb/d in 2018, with about 92% of those volumes being sent out of the half-dozen LPG terminals in coastal Texas and Louisiana. The rest of the exports-by-ship are flowing through a total of three smaller terminals in the Mid-Atlantic region and Pacific Northwest. We concluded with a review of the Gulf Coast’s — and the U.S.’s — largest LPG export facility: the Enterprise Hydrocarbon Terminal (EHT; dark blue dot and lettering in Figure 1), which is located on the Houston Ship Channel and whose capacity is in the midst of being expanded to 720 Mb/d from the current 545 Mb/d.
EHT sent out an average of 447 Mb/d of LPG last year, or about 40% of total U.S. LPG exports by ship.

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